Default Rate

22 Troublesome Facts

Below are 22 troublesome facts explaining why the herd may, in fact, have it wrong.

Central Banker's Real Legacy: Pension Funds Panic 'Reach' For Yield

In a desperate reach for yields they increased exposure to project finance. Perceived higher returns, long-term investment horizon and inflation protection made it the perfect match for pension funds. However, like their central banker peers, pension fund managers were completely mistaken. Actual risks were largely underestimated...

Credit Card Defaults Surge Most Since Financial Crisis

The steep increase in credit card defaults in 1Q’17 and 4Q’16 was the largest since 2009, according to a report by Moody's, which suggests that the US consumer is getting progressively weaker and is unable to support the spending needed to keep the US economy afloat.

We Now Know "Who Hit The Brakes" As Loan Creation Crashes To Six Year Low

We can now close the book on the WSJ's previously unanswered question of "who hit the breaks?" The answe the US consumer, the driver behind 70% of US GDP, officially tapped out. In fact, it was almost as if US consumers were hit by a perfect storm of adverse events in late 2016 and early 2017

US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High, Hits Record $12.7 Trillion

“Almost nine years later, household debt has finally exceeded its 2008 peak. This record debt level is neither a reason to celebrate nor a cause for alarm. But it does provide an opportune moment to consider debt performance,” said Donghoon Lee, Research Officer at the New York Fed.

The Other Shoe Drops: Prime Auto Loan Losses Surge As Recoveries Tumble

With subprime auto loan delinquencies already surpassing losses last seen in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, the next shoe has dropped as losses in bonds tied to prime auto loans surged in recent months from a year ago, with 60+ day delinquencies and default rates in Prime ABS pools doubling from post-crisis lows.