Demographics

Tyler Durden's picture

Destroying The Myth That Lower Gas Prices Boost Consumption





While the argument that declines in energy and gasoline prices should lead to stronger consumption sounds logical, the data suggests that this is not actually the case.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Real Reason For America's Collapsing Labor Force





"You might think legions of retiring Baby Boomers are to blame, or perhaps the swelling ranks of laid-off workers who’ve grown discouraged about their re-employment prospects. While both of those groups doubtless are important (though just how important is debated by labor economists), our analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data suggests another key factor: Teens and young adults aren’t as interested in entering the work force as they used to be, a trend that predates the Great Recession." - Pew

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Perhaps The BIS Can Share Its Next "Debt Trap" Warnings With Its Own Board Of Directors First





Here is the BIS once again with its noble - and now thorughly 'Austrian' - public service announcement, this time warning about the implications of a global "debt trap" and how everything will end in tears (stop us when this becomes familiar). We have just one request. Next time, instead of sharing these profoundly Austrian observations with the general public, maybe you can just discuss them at the next BIS Board of Directors' meeting which consists of...

 
Sprott Money's picture

Federal Reserve Counterfeiting Approaches 100%





At the end of 2008, the U.S. Federal Reserve embarked upon a monetary policy so extreme and so reckless that it had to invent a (new) euphemism for what it was doing, since if it simply used the old euphemism, even the puppet-politicians of the U.S. government would have rebelled at this monetary insanity.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Anatomy Of A Failing State: Japan's Budgetary Nightmare





What do you get after 25 years of stagnation and Keynesian Cargo Cult monetary stimulus? A failing state, that's what. The intellectually bankrupt ruling Elites of Japan have no solution for Japan's slow stagnation, as real reform would diminish their wealth and power. So their only "solution" is to double-down on monetary stimulus. Once the global economy rolls over into contraction, the tide will recede and Japan's fiscal and monetary bankruptcy will become painfully apparent.
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Saxobank CIO Warns USDJPY Could Hit 135 On "One Trick Pony" BoJ Desperation





From a market perspective the move today was almost perfectly timed coming on the heels of a Federal Open Market Committee meeting which ended quantitative easing and expose the big difference on future monetary paths between the BoJ and the Fed. There is, however, a dark side to this big move.. telling a story of how central banks, even the desperate ones like BoJ, are and remain one-trick-pony institutions: "this is the final round – Japan was ALWAYS going to give it one more shot – now it happened."

 
Capitalist Exploits's picture

Why I Don't Really Care About Your Product





On eliminating investment risk...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Meet The Millennials: All You Ever Wanted To Know About America's Youth, In Charts





When it comes to the future of the US, the biggest question mark by far is anything relating to the Millennial generation, those Americans born between 1980 and 2000, which happens to be one of the biggest generations in US history. Here are the most relevant charts seeking to answer some of the outstanding questions.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Houston, We Have A "Fracking" Problem





The problem for a city like Houston (or many others like it), with deep ties to the production and oil, is a "shock" from a supply/demand reversion could bring the economic "boom" quickly to an end. We are certainly not saying that the "wheels are about to come off of the cart." However, we do suggest that there is a potential for a very negative shock in the energy space given the extreme complacency that current exists. History suggests that true "miracles" are few and far between as most tend to just "illusions of hope."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Everything Breaks Again: Futures Tumble; Peripheral Yields Soar, Greek Bonds Crater





Yesterday afternoon's "recovery" has come and gone, because just like that, in a matter of minutes, stuff just broke once again courtsy of a USDJPY which has been a one way liquidation street since hitting 106.30 just before Europe open to 105.6 as of this writing: U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD DROPS 15 BASIS POINTS TO 1.99%; S&P FUTURES PLUNGE 23PTS, OR 1.2%, AS EU STOCKS DROP 2.54%.

Only this time Europe is once again broken with periphery yields exploding, after Spain earlier failed to sell the maximum target of €3.5 billion in bonds, instead unloading only €3.2 billion, and leading to this: PORTUGAL 10-YR BONDS EXTEND DROP; YIELD CLIMBS 30 BPS TO 3.58%; IRISH 10-YEAR BONDS EXTEND DECLINE; YIELD RISES 20 BPS TO 1.90%; SPANISH 10-YEAR BONDS EXTEND DROP; YIELD JUMPS 29 BPS TO 2.40%.

And the punchline, as usual, is Greece, whose 10 Year is now wider by over 1% on the session(!), to just about 9%.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Unwind Process Has Far To Go (And Don't Hold Your Breath For QE4)





The Fed’s policy of financial repression sends the wrong signal.  It punishes savers, such as pensions and retirees, while rewarding speculators and debtors.  It is like giving my son ice cream after he yells at his mother and punches his brother. Many Fed policies have been, or have become, counter-productive.  Events may certainly force the Fed to be ‘lower for longer’, but expecting some type of new stimulus measure is an exceptionally long way off. The explosion of market volatility has shaken the foundation of investor psyche. The unwind process has far to go.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Futures Storm Into The Green, 20 Points Off The Lows; NY Fed's Chicago Office Kept Busy All Night





With futures slamming the lows at their open yesterday evening, touching levels not seen since May, and with the EuroStoxx 50 officialy entering correction just hours ago, down 10% from the June highs, many were wondering if the NY Fed's Chicago Trading Desk, aka Overnight Ramp Capital LLC, would be put in damage control duty and send futures right back to unchanged (because with new Ebola patient alerts springing up everywhere from Boston to Los Angeles, the pandemic is clearly contained). The answer, with a whopping 20 point levitation on no volume, and futures which are pointing now well into the green (not to mention the Eurostoxx rebounding off the lows and now green too), is a resounding yes (thank the  AUDJPY, which is over 100 pips off the overnight lows and back over 94).

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Stayin' Alive" Bill Gross Speaks In His First Janus Interview: Live Webcast





Curious how Bill Gross feels in his new digs at Janus Capital (aka old digs in Newport Beach)? Curious how much money he is managing now or how he will manage it? Curious why he has a band aid under his right eye? All should be revealed in the Janus Capital live webcast going on now.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Dow At 8,000





On Tuesday, the Dow fell 272 points. No big deal, of course - we rebounded the most in 3 years yesterday. But what if it continued? Just six years ago it fell 51%. It could easily do so again – back down to, say, 8,000. There would be nothing unusual about it. 50% corrections are normal. You know what would happen, don’t you? Ever since the "Black Monday" stock market crash in 1987 it has been standard procedure for the Fed to react quickly. But what if Yellen & Co. got out the party favors... set up the booze on the counter... laid out some dishes with pretzels and olives... and nobody came? What if the stock market stayed down for 30 years, as it has in Japan?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

8 Reasons Why The Long-Bond Is Going Under 2.50%





Almost everyone is expecting much higher yields in the near term, but a 30-year drop in yield toward 2.5% should be considered as a possibility for these 8 reasons...

 
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