In an asset management context, US Treasury interest rates tend to trend lower when there is an output gap and trend higher when there is an output surplus. This simple, yet overlooked rule has helped to guide us to stay correctly long US Treasuries over the last several years while the Wall Street community came up with any reason why they were a losing asset class. We continue to think that US Treasury interest rates have significant appreciation ahead of them. As we have stated before, we think the 10yr US Treasury yield will fall to 1.00% or below.
Is gold, often scoffed at as being an unproductive asset, more productive than cash? If so, what does it mean for asset allocation?
The greatest tragedy of the 2008–2009 financial meltdown was not that it happened. The collapse of asset prices was the necessary result of near zero interest rates. No, the most devastating aspect of the financial meltdown is that central planning alchemy lost no credibility. Policymakers around the world are still turning to Keynesian and socialist interventionism to address problems caused by Keynesians and socialists. The twin sledgehammers of central banking and almost unlimited state power have so distorted global markets (again) that some economies are now terminal. The latest victim of the interventionists and micromanagers is the nation of Japan. A once genuinely productive and innovative nation has, over the years, slowly succumbed to the cancerous rot of interventionism.
Coming off big wins in New York this week, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton look to move one step closer to the nomination next Tuesday as five states (Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island) will be choosing their candidate.
Workers of all ages are caught in a vice. Older workers need to keep working longer in an economy which values younger workers (and their cheaper healthcare premiums). And here's why so many workers have to work longer - earned income's share of the GDP has been in a free-fall for decades as Fed-funded financiers and corporations skim an ever greater share of the nation's GDP. (Thanks again, Federal Reserve, for hollowing out our economy to benefit the few at the expense of the many.)
US nonfinancial debt rose 3.5 times faster than GDP last year. Simply put - "We’re digging a great big hole that is likely to cave in on us before we manage to claw our way back out of it."
"A “successful” helicopter drop may therefore be easier said than done given the non-linearities involved: it needs to be big enough for nominal growth expectations to shift higher and small enough to prevent an irreversible dis-anchoring of inflation expectations above the central bank’s target. Either way, the behavior of the latter is the key defining variable both for the policy’s success as well as the asset market reaction.... under the assumption of policy “success” without fears of hyperinflation, we would conclude that bond yields rise."
Americans are realizing something is wrong with the system.
In Greek mythology there was a monster called Cerberus, the hound of Hades, a monstrous multi-headed dog who guarded the gates of the underworld, preventing the dead from leaving. Today central banks have taken on the role of feeding our own modern version of Cerberus to keep all the troubles away. This hound of Hades has 3 heads that are named debt, deflation and demographics. Together they make a deadly combination that will result in a massive reset of asset prices...and central bankers are running out of food to feed the monster.
In what has so far been a strange day, in which one headline by an "anonymous diplomatic source" and unconfirmed by the Russian energy ministry has pushed stocks from red on the day back to highs for the year, the latest surprise came from Bill Gross who moments ago broke into a "tweetstorm" to lay out what he see as the latest set of investor delusions.
Japan is heading for a full-blown solvency crisis as the country runs out of local investors and may ultimately be forced to inflate away its debt in a desperate end-game, one of the world’s most influential economists has warned. "One day the BoJ may well get a call from the finance ministry saying please think about us – it is a life or death question - and keep rates at zero for a bit longer."
Bernie Sanders wins Wyoming Democratic caucus, defeating Hillary Clinton, according to AP, extending his win-streak to seven states in a row. This brings the delegate count to Hillary 1292 vs Bernie's 1044 excluding super-delegates, which as we noted here, are far from a "lock" for Clinton if the Bernie Bus continues to show this kind of momentum.
“The typical investor has usually gathered a good deal of half-truths, misconceptions, and just plain bunk about successful investing.” With the month of April winding up the seasonally strong time of the year, earnings season just ahead and economic growth weak, the risks to the downside far outweigh “hope” of higher prices. Or, is “bad news” still the bear market deterrent?
Who will lead the Democratic Party in the general election is a political question, not a mathematical one. If Sanders’s momentum continues to grow, the superdelegates would ignore that fact at their peril.