Demographics

"Losers Who Won't Lose" - John Lewis Versus Donald Trump

This is an enormous week in the United States: opening today with the Martin Luther King holiday, and culminating with the Presidential Inauguration. So it’s perhaps interesting to see a small spar between two individuals who are close to each event - Congressman John Lewis, a prominent figure from the Civil Rights Movement era, and President-elect Trump.

The Islamization Of Britain In 2016: "More Backwards Than Some Parts Of Pakistan"

More than 100,000 British Muslims sympathize with suicide bombers and people who commit other terrorist acts, according to a 615-page survey. Only one in three British Muslims (34%) would contact the police if they believed that somebody close to them had become involved with radical Islam. Teaching children fundamental British values is an act of "cultural supremacism," according to the National Union of Teachers.

Why Trump's 4% GDP Will Remain Elusive

For the umpteenth year in a row, mainstream economists and analysts are once again planting the seeds of hope for a return to stronger GDP growth. The White House has hoped for it for the last 8 years, and now President-elect Trump is all but promising a surge in economic growth. Unfortunately, while promises are great, we must analyze the reality of attaining such a lofty resurgence.

What Keeps Goldman Up At Night About 2017

Between China, credit markets, financial conditions, political uncertainty, the consequences of Brexit, the presidential elections, global trade, the risk of sharp reflation, and the impotence of central banking, here are the top things that keep Goldman Sachs up at night about 2017.

2016 Greatest Hits: Presenting The Most Popular Articles Of The Past Year

The eighth anniversary of Zero Hedge is just around the corner, and so, for the eighth year in a row we continue our tradition of summarizing what our readers found to be the most relevant, exciting, and actionable news of the year. We bring you the articles that you, dear reader, found to be the most interesting in the past 365 days.

2016 Ended: Saying Goodbye To A Roller-Coaster Year

The importance of information grew exponentially and 2016 will be remembered as a year of information wars. No information sources are fully trusted anymore. Internet has become a battlefield where information wars are waged to influence large masses of people and a considerable number of world leaders.

Goldman's 10 Most Important Questions For 2017

Goldman Sachs is relatively optimistic about growth in 2017, for three reasons: first, despite the lack of spare capacity, US recession risk remains below the historical average; second, financial conditions should remain a growth tailwind - at least in the first half of 2017; and third, we expect a fiscal easing accumulating to 1% of GDP by 2018. However, uncertainty remains and here is what Jan Hatzius and his team believe are the ten most important questions for 2017.

It's The Dollar, Stupid!

We expect global monetary authorities to protect the dollar as long as they can and we expect them to fail. Stocks and bonds will react violently; stocks and weak credits falling, treasuries prices rising (at first). That failure will lead to hyperinflation – not driven by demand, but rather by central bank money printing. A new global monetary understanding will then emerge.

Demographic Shock Ground Zero: Japan Births Drop Below Million For The First Time On Record

While the US is finally starting to feel the social, political and economic hit from an aging population, nowhere is the demographic impact more visible than in what is the epicenter of the developed world's demographic problems: Japan. It is here that according to the latest government data, the number of births in Japan is likely to fall below a million this year for the first time since data became available in 1899.

Shifting Power: Visualizing The World's Largest Cities For The Last 6000 Years

In the grand scheme of history, things change quite fast. One cataclysmic choice or event can turn even the greatest empire into a heap of rubble. Sometimes the decline of a world-class city is more gradual – and it is over time that it loses its title to another place in a far and distant land. The following animated map from KPMG Demographics tracks the world’s largest cities from 4,000 BC to today, and it shows how temporary a city’s rise to prominence can be.

Dave Collum's 2016 Year In Review - "And Then Things Got Really Weird..."

"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."

Here Are The "Costanza Trades" Of 2017

Ask yourself; what are the trades that make complete sense and all your instincts say are right, and then do the opposite.  Basically what you end up constructing is an out of consensus portfolio and we all know how consensus trades work out in this market.

The Bears Are Dying: Even Bob Janjuah Turns (Somewhat) Bullish

"The trends over H1 2017 should be higher (especially US) equities and yields, steeper curves, a stronger USD, and mixed performance in credit (especially in the IG sphere) and EM. So for me, most likely over the middle two quarters of 2017, I can see the S&P 500 cash index up at 2450 +/- 50 points, with the Nasdaq weakest and the Dow strongest of the big three US indices."