Demographics

A Post Western World? A Disturbing Interview With Prof. Harry Redner

The political and economic issues broadly discussed in the media usually revolve around political cycles, terrorism, foreign policy, rising debt levels, sluggish economic performance, academic underachievement, environmental problems, ageing demographics and so forth.  In our view, this all ties into a major cycle of history that has been with us for some time, and which has been gaining traction since the 1990s: the end of "Western Civilization" and the transition towards a globalized society.

The 9-Point Guide To Deciphering Political Propaganda

Given we are eyeballs-deep in the US presidential election cycle, now seems a particularly appropriate time to share some observations on the topic of political propaganda. Since it will be impossible to escape the rhetorical onslaught for the next few months, we thought we might be able to shed some light on what goes on in the battle for your subconscious...

"My Own People Hate Me!" - Black Brooklyn Cop Slams "False Narrative Of Black Lives Matter"

"I haven’t slept well in the past few nights. Heartbreak weighs me down, rage flows through my veins, and tears fills my eyes. I realized...  Black Lives do not matter to most black people. Only the lives that make the national news matter to them. Only the lives that are taken at the hands of cops or white people, matter. The other thousands of lives lost, the other black souls that I along with every cop, have seen taken at the hands of other blacks, do not matter."

3 Things: Bonds, Bulls, & Central Banks

With global rates at zero to negative, money will continue to chase U.S. Treasuries for the higher yield. This will continue to push yields lower as the global economy continues to slow. What would cause this to reverse? It would require either an economic rebound as last seen in 50’s and 60’s or a complete loss of faith in the U.S. to pay its debts such as a collapse of the Government and the onset of the “zombie apocalypse.” We no longer have the drivers of manufacturing, demographics or credit expansion for the former, so I am ready for the latter.

More Questions Emerge About Skewed Hillary Polls

One glimpse at the massive variance between the last two days polls in swing states suggests something very odd is going on. Simply put, given the post-Email-gate disapproval ratings, Pro-Hillary Clinton polls simply don't make sense... "The American public is far more pissed off than even you’d like to admit. Part of the reason you refuse to admit it is that this reality is truly terrifying."

Why Gundlach Thinks It's Going To Get Worse, And Why He Is "Pretty Sure That Trump Will Win"

"What is really happening here is that there’s massive technological change, and big changes almost always lead to political instability. People who benefit from the old construct are loath to see it change, because they don’t want to lose their power and economic advantage. And so they dig their heels in even harder. That’s what we’re seeing in Britain right now. People who remember the good old days when they had factory jobs and made a good living—that’s been taken away, and they want to do something about it."

Why Deutsche Bank Expects A Collapse In Monthly Job Growth To Under 60,000

The current labor/productivity gap implies that over the next 4 quarters, the cumulative slowdown in labor input growth should be 4.5 percent. This implies that aggregate hours (which most recently have been expanding at a 1.6 percent annual rate) would average just 0.5 percent (1.6 – 4.5 / 4). Expressed in terms of new jobs, this means that unless firms cut back on employee hours, monthly job creation would average close to 60K next year, a substantial drop from the 200K average of the past 12 months.

The Great Market Tide Has Now Shifted

Risk-on assets (stocks) rising at the same time as safe-haven assets is akin to dogs marrying cats and living happily ever after. What the heck is going on? Why is the market acting so schizophrenic? What’s changed?

Bill Gross Says Yellen "Worships False Idols" So "Worry About The Return Of Your Money, Not On It"

"Investors should not hope unrealistically for deficit spending any time soon. To me, that means at best, a ceiling on risk asset prices (stocks, high yield bonds, private equity, real estate) and at worst, minus signs at year's end that force investors to abandon hope for future returns compared to historic examples. Worry for now about the return "of" your money, not the return "on" it."

Religion Of Peace?

Presented with no racist, cynical, divisive, unpatriotic, skeptical, fiction-peddling comments...

Steen Jakobsen Exposes The Policymakers' "Comical Ali" Strategy

The UK will be the largest country in population by 2030 in Europe, it has has the biggest military might and the single largest concentration of capital markets and talent outside the US - furthermore the UK runs a massive deficit with Europe, so if the European leaders want a future Europe/NATO/EA without active participation by the UK military, capital markets, consumer demand, and deficit then please carry on acting like a bunch of cry babies.

The Invisible Hand Of The Disogranized Masses

The comments this week coming from the so-called elite referencing the ignorant masses have manufactured an aggressive response. Turning entire populations towards revolution takes years of socioeconomic conditioning and the application of downward pressure on civil liberties while also drawing attention to that downward pressure. The disorganized masses through the ultimate expression of self-interest, Adam Smith's 'invisible hand', will inevitably rise up and overthrow those they perceive as being the cause of the problem. The French population was guided by this invisible hand as the people expressed their self-interest through anger at the French monarchy in 1789.