"We shall once again suggest that new purchases of stocks at these levels shall prove to be ill-advised in the not too distant future. The proper course of action, obviously, is to be long of equities but fearful of the inevitable correction, which will be violent and sharp when it happens."
OPEC succeeded in pulling off what many thought was impossible, overcoming mutual disdain and mistrust to reach a deal on reducing its oil output. Oil prices skyrocketed on the news, up more than 12% since the agreement was announced last week. But what if there is much less to the deal than meets the eye? What if OPEC does not actually follow through on the promised production cuts?
Risk evaluation is a given regarding anything in financial markets these days, and has been the case forever taking into account the multiple market crashes and "Melt-Ups" in almost every asset class for the last century of historical price data.
"At this point there is nothing that we can say other than protection must be taken; that positions on the long side have to be reduced into any strength that may develop; that we fear that the bull markets are indeed finished and that bear markets are now full engaged."
"We covered in a great portion of our short derivatives position and we added to our long position in the shares of a foreign steel producer immediately upon the opening of trading on the NYSE. We did more of the same mid-morning and by the day’s end finished effectively market neutral."
"In our retirement funds here at TGL we bought back into the same non-US steel manufacturing concern that we’d owned previously as it broke out to the upside... we are aggressively long of gold/EUR and we own a leveraged gold mining ETF. We have balanced those positions with bearish equity derivatives sufficient to leave us marginally… very marginally… net long of equities."
"Tuesday’s sell-off did look like liquidation rather than fundamentally warranted selling. This view is further supported by the fact that the open interest in the COMEX futures has fallen by more than 4% this week, suggestive strongly of forced liquidation and a throwing up of the hands… and of the stuff in one’s stomach."
"If the great Marty Zweig taught us all decades ago never to fight the Fed, then we are to learn today never to fight the collective force of the central banks in aggregate either, but should instead see this as a wind at the stock market’s collective back."