Gold prices are breaking above triple resistance forming a technical bottom and channel breakout. This projects gold higher to 1,315 and 1,375. The gap in the distribution on the left shows 1,550 is a possibility,
"Having been manifestly bearish of crude oil over the course of the past many, many months we are moving to the sidelines in light of the “reversal” to the upside staged by WTI and Brent crude yesterday and in light of the sharp move lower on the part of the contangos in both crude types."
- Dennis Gartman
There is reason for the saying "never say never", as demonstrated vividly by these two energy experts:
"We shall strongly urge those who are still aggressively long of equities to become less so; we shall urge those who are upon the sidelines and are “punters” rather than long term investors to err obviously on the short side and we shall urge long term investors who’ve been fortunate enough to have gone to the sidelines to do what they can and what they must to convince themselves that things are not yet “cheap” enough to warrant even nibbling at equities." - Dennis Gartman
" In a bear market, one can have only one of three positions also: aggressively short; modestly short or neutral. In our retirement funds here at TGL we began last week and indeed we began the year modestly long but by the weeks’ end we had shifted to modestly net short. We have had no choice. The market’s voice was loud and very clear." - Dennis Gartman
It only takes a moment for the observant viewer to ascertain the state of each of these two realities. There is no Schrodinger's Cat in Dennis' world.
Q. Could oil prices collapse to $20?
A. The short answer is ‘yes.’ We believe that crude oil prices could fall further unless global oil production is reduced. We believe that the weakness in crude oil prices reflects a combination of fundamental factors and financial flows. Fundamentally there is simply too much oil... the current supply-demand balance is not sustainable; something has to give.
Did algos finally figure out precisely what we said first thing this morning, namely that the market completely ignored what was a hawkish hike, and that as a result, what Yellen has done, now that the kneejerk reaction is over, is policy error, pure and simple?
"we moved to generally “neutralize” our positions by taking on derivative positions to hedge ourselves. We did so mid-morning yesterday and now are comfortable sitting through the Fed’s decision… or “non”-decision as the case may be… later this afternoon."
"It is time once again to seek the safety of the sidelines. This is not the time to be aggressively bullish of equities but rather this is the time for… as we say here in the South… “hunkering down,” for getting smaller, for curtailing exposure."
"Our bond fund took a sizeable “hit” on Friday following the news of the refusal on the part of the Third Avenue fund to allow for immediate redemptions where those unable to sell their positions in Third Avenue sold what they could and where they could to gain access to liquidity."
On Friday Nov. 20th we sold a half unit each of nearby January WTI trading at or near to $41.85 and nearby Brent trading at or very near to $44.23, giving us an average of $43.04. Our stated risk, was 2% on the position, so the stops were set at $42.10 and $45.11 respectively, and we used our “hour or so” methodology; that is, we’d want to see crude trade through those levels “for an hour or so” before activating the stops in question. Those stops have been activated. The Saudis caught us off. We are gone… now!
"It is time to sell crude oil once again, and the risks are small while the potention seems large. Let’s sell a bit of both WTI and Brent crude, sufficient to be one unit in aggregate with nearby January WTI trading at or near to $41.85 and nearby Brent trading at or very near to $44.23."
"... any time and every time we find ourselves philosophically dubious of what is going on and have attempted to take a bearish view our hands are slapped; our margins are depleted and our psyche struck down... We’ve no choice then but to see in the “reversals” that took place on Monday the propensity still for the markets to head higher. Indeed, they may go parabolically so as the shorts run for cover and as those left behind rush to be included."
According to Bank of America, the smart money is taking advantage of this latest rebound in stocks to sell to who else: the traditionally biggest sucker in the room - retail investors.