Dennis Gartman, already humiliated beyond any hope of reputation salvage in the media, appears to be refocusing his keen talents and acute sense of extrapolating instantaneous market momentum 1 millisecond into the future, to a renewed direct exposure in the capital markets. And while hoping that market junkies have forgotten the epic disaster that was his last foray into ETF-land with ONN and OFF, Gartman today announced that he is now launching his signature shtick as a brand new ETF: gold... in non-dollar terms.
It is becoming more uncomfortable to make fun of Dennis Gartman's always incorrect calls (see here and here and here and here) than to watch Richard Simmons Obamacare commercials, but... well - it's just too funny.
Earlier, we debunked an alarmist Forbes story about halted cash transfer by PBOC decree, which was erroneous along various lines all explained previously, not in the least that the actual announcement had first appeared some three weeks ago. And despite the kneejerk reaction of some of our more fatalist readers and not to mention the general public, the reality is that China has more than enough real problems (Trust Equals Gold being at the forefront) and certainly does not need to add imaginary, made up ones, conceived only with the intention of generating conflated ad revenues through click-baiting headlines. Which is why we commend Forbes for, better late than never, pulling the story even without providing an explanation of how this story appeared in the first place. Because where the article once was, there is only a 4-0-Forbes now...
Just when you thought bizarro world couldn't get any, er, bizarrer, here comes - who else - Dennis Gartman, who is now long gold.... in crude oil terms.
Further, we shall recommend owning gold in terms of crude oil, buying the former and selling the latter in equal dollar sums. Further, to eliminate the impact fo the Brent/WTI spread from this trade, we’ll do half of the oil trade in WTI and half in Brent.
Gartman from November 19: "... the simple things of economic growth, I don't think there's froth whatsoever."
Gartman from just ten days earlier, November 8: "Now with the S&P forging a massive reversal to the downside, we not only must abandon being bullish we must become bearish... and very so.... Our bearish friends, having been wrong for so long, are now right; it is time to be bearish of stocks, while the time for having been bullish is now past... We trust we are clear. The game’s changed and when the game changes, we change.... We had heretofore consistently erred bullishly of simple things… of coal; of steel; of railroads; of ships and shipping… but we are not now."
This morning, like many other mornings in the last few months, precious metals prices are being pummeled lower in a vertical dumpfest (for no apparent sudden reason other than its opening time). What is ironic about this apparent lack of demand is that around the world, demand is extreme - and is most clearly evident in India, where thanks to government intervention, physical premiums push to new record highs yet do nothing to detract from Indians buying demand (as Reuters reports supplies of the precious metal disappear). Of course, the real reason why gold and silver prices have dropped since 10/28 is that none other than "the world renowned Gartman" went long again...
Just two weeks after Goldman's "Slam Dunk Sell," report, the price of gold is surging once again. Goldman's Currie (in direct opposition to BofAML's Curry) argument that post debt-ceiling, "... with significant recovery in the U.S., tapering of QE should put downward pressure on gold prices," seems like another round of wishful thinking as physical premiums for gold around the world surge to record highs and spot prices reach one-month highs. Of course, while Goldman had a few days of positive reaction after their call, it is none other than Dennis Gartman who provided the bottom-tick in the latest exuberance.
There is Whitney Tilson, there is Dennis Gartman, there is Bill Ackman, but when it comes to epic, blatant muppet genocide nobody, nobody in the history of Wall Street, can compare to Goldman's chief FX strategist Thomas Stolper. Nobody. "Trade Update: Closing long EUR/GBP after strong UK data offset other Sterling negative factors. We recommend closing long EUR/GBP positions for a potential negative return of 0.2%."
Yesterday, just as AAPL was plumbing its intraday lows ahead of its earnings announcement, and just as gold was about to break out to the upside (at least until Dennis Gartman turned bullish on the metal) we relayed a "rumor" suggesting that the most sturdy pair-trade of the past few months: the AAPL-Gold compression was Ben Bernanke's #timestamp for the day.
Rumor Bernanke is pitching the AAPL-gold compression trade
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 23, 2013
Sure enough, following yesterday's AAPL spike and today's gold take-down, Bernanke Asset Management can claim one more win in its impeccable recommendation track record.
To summarize, the SEC which admits it was clueless in analyzing the modern, fragmented market (yet which found definitively that the culprit for the May 2010 flash crash was Waddell and Reed, and nobody else, using what technology at the time, nobody knows), uses a platform developed by High Frequency Trading firm Tradeworx... to reach a conclusion that High Frequency Trading firms are innocent of every flash crash resulting from an HFT algo gone haywire...
Buy PHYSICAL Gold. NOW: The Discount of a Lifetime: Or Why You Must Abandon the Fake Paper Gold MarketSubmitted by Gordon_Gekko on 04/17/2013 06:00 -0500
It's time to go in for the kill. Buy as much physical Gold as you can.
Forget 'red balloons', StreetTalkLive's Lance Roberts expands from his recent visualization of Bob Farrell's investment rules to six more market mavens with insights into money management and being a successful investor. What you will find interesting is that not one of them promote "buy and hold" investing for the long term - probably because in reality it doesn't work.
The U.S. federal deficit is now exceeding $1 trillion dollars every year —up from $161 billion in 2007, the last year before the financial crisis. Spending is up some $1 trillion, as outlays for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and other entitlements have increased by an amount equal to the entire 2013 military budget – a budget which may again surpass the combined military expenditure of every other nation in the world. U.S. unfunded liabilities are now estimated at between $50 trillion and $100 trillion and by the end of the decade (in less than just 7 years), runaway entitlement spending will require shutting down the military or crippling many other vital domestic spending programs to head off massive deficits that will likely lead to a dollar crisis and significant inflation. No matter what deal is eventually agreed, whether before or after the new year, it will at best nibble at the edges of the trillion dollar annual deficits that are being piled up. While all the focus has been on the so called U.S. ‘fiscal cliff’, amnesia has taken hold and many market participants have forgotten about the far from resolved Eurozone debt crisis – not to mention looming debt crisis in the UK and Japan.
One of the more persistent, and pernicious, misconceptions about the unshakable - at least to date - tower that is Japanese debt, all Y1 quadrillion of it, is that there is no need to worry (literally, see prior) because the bulk of it is held by retail, i.e., domestic household, investors and as long as that is the case, nothing can possibly go wrong: after all the Japanese population holds its own debt, and as such is a beneficial creditor to the world's largest sovereign debtor. Alas, as so often happens with conventional wisdom, it just happens to be completely wrong. And while one may be entitled to their own opinions, the facts in this case belong squarely to the Japanese Ministry of Finance. The Japan MOF chart below summarizes the true state of retail appetite for Japanese bonds. In the wise words of Dennis Gartman, the chart is unmistakably headed from the top left to the bottom right, in perfectly obvious terms.
Predictions regarding the election outcome are all over the place. Dennis Gartman for instance thinks that 'Romney will win quite handily'. While this opinion may be largely informed by wishful thinking in this case, there are two interesting points made by Gartman. One concerns poll errors, and the other the Bradley (or Wilder) effect (or 'political correctness effect' - i.e., it is not motivated by racism, but by the fear of people that they might be seen as racist). Jim Cramer is taking the exact opposite view from Gartman's, expecting a 'landslide' victory for Obama. Of course Cramer wouldn't be Cramer if his forecast didn't stand out for being a bit extreme. The Princeton election consortium's latest update of the meta-analysis of the electoral vote count on the eve of the election continues to predict an Obama victory as well, but clearly the race is getting tighter. However, across the pond, it is clear that the Europeans see the election (and indeed any election it seems) very differently, highlighting their ignorance of the difference between 'total capitalism' and 'crony capitalism'.