On Friday Nov. 20th we sold a half unit each of nearby January WTI trading at or near to $41.85 and nearby Brent trading at or very near to $44.23, giving us an average of $43.04. Our stated risk, was 2% on the position, so the stops were set at $42.10 and $45.11 respectively, and we used our “hour or so” methodology; that is, we’d want to see crude trade through those levels “for an hour or so” before activating the stops in question. Those stops have been activated. The Saudis caught us off. We are gone… now!
"It is time to sell crude oil once again, and the risks are small while the potention seems large. Let’s sell a bit of both WTI and Brent crude, sufficient to be one unit in aggregate with nearby January WTI trading at or near to $41.85 and nearby Brent trading at or very near to $44.23."
"... any time and every time we find ourselves philosophically dubious of what is going on and have attempted to take a bearish view our hands are slapped; our margins are depleted and our psyche struck down... We’ve no choice then but to see in the “reversals” that took place on Monday the propensity still for the markets to head higher. Indeed, they may go parabolically so as the shorts run for cover and as those left behind rush to be included."
According to Bank of America, the smart money is taking advantage of this latest rebound in stocks to sell to who else: the traditionally biggest sucker in the room - retail investors.
"Apparently terrorist attacks are supportive of stocks… apparently! We have been wrong in times past, and we have been wrong badly before, but we cannot recall every having been as wrong as we were yesterday for we were certain that terrorism is a bad thing for equity investment... We were clearly and obviously wrong, and when wrong the only possible action to take is to get less wrong; to cover that which had been done and to retreat to the sidelines." - Dennis Gartman
"Clearly we wish that we had had the presence of mind to have been aggressively net short of equities, but we did not, nor are we that lucky. We shall, however, look upon any intra-day rally in the market as a point at which to become modestly shorter of the market."
Over the past 3 months, the name Marko Kolanovic, head of JPM's Quant Team, has become one of the most loved, or feared (depending on which way he is leaning) and respected on all of Wall Street for one simple reason: think Dennis Gartman, only correct every time. Well, the man Bloomberg calls "Gandalf" just did it again - "nailing" the top in stocks last week.
JPM Head Quant Is Back: The Rally Drivers Are Gone With "Downside Risk" Ahead, But No Flash Crash Unless...Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/05/2015 15:40 -0500
"Summarizing technical flows from option hedges, volatility targeting, CTA and Risk Parity funds, we believe that these strategies largely re-levered to pre August crash levels. This was a significant driver of the S&P 500 performance in October and hence poses some downside risk.... The risk of this increasingly one dimensional positioning across CTAs, Macro and some of Equity Long-Short managers is that these trends don’t materialize and trades become too crowded. The result could be a sharp reversion as positions are exited."
Dennis Gartman, author of the institutionally well followed ‘The Gartman Letter,’ has asked questions about gold’s peculiar price action last week and raised the question as to whether there was official central bank manipulation of gold prices.
"In recent weeks and months we’ve seen reversals in the equities markets time after time and far, far too often. They have become common rather than uncommon events and this is the problem we confront today. We are growing weary of doing so and we are making that weariness evident here this morning. Flipping back and forth does no one any good, but flip we must if history’s lessons are to be heeded."
"when this sort of thing happens following bullish moves it has almost always signaled the end of the bull-run. Couple this unanimity of price movement with the “reversals” noted above and we have a situation that concerns us greatly. Indeed it concerns us enough to exit our long positions entirely upon receipt of this commentary… Certainly we do not like switching positions this quickly, for we appear to be flippant and foolhardy, but history tells us that we have no choice."
Just a day after no lesser world-renowned newsletter writer than Dennis Gartman went full bull-tard of crude oil (in $29.95 terms), Goldman Sachs has come out with a "lower for longer" warning about the crude complex noting that the gains have been exacerbated by still large short positioning and the break of key technical levels. Despite the magnitude of this rally, Goldman does not believe that data releases over the past week suggest a change in oil fundamentals. In fact, high frequency data continue to point to an oversupplied market despite a gradual decline in US production.
"Suddenly, good news is busting out all over, and we can't not talk about them. I have been bearish for a while now, but if the facts change, I have to change with them," the "Mad Money" host said.