It is laughable when people pretend Zero Hedge is an outlet designed to be some go to place for trading ideas.
“When the facts change, I change; What then do you do, Sir?” The facts are changing in the world of crude oil; demand is still rather strong and supplies seem to be rising but only modestly. Further, the term structures are shifting. We had been, on balance and really quite openly, bearish of crude for the past several years, erring always to sell crude’s rallies rather than to buy crude’s weakness. That has been wrong for the past two months and it is time to acknowledge that “wrongness.” If the facts are indeed changing… and certainly they seem to be… then we too must change.
"We note that the CNN Fear & Greed Index, having risen late last week once again to 75… the level the creators of the Index have referred to as “Extreme Greed”… has fallen back from those highs and closed last evening at 70. The Index has spent the past seveal weeks forging what appears to us to have become a material “top” of some very real consequence. It “peaked” last autumn near 75 before stocks, as measured by the S&P, fell from 2075 to 1800 in a matter of weeks, and it peaked early last year at or near 80 before the S&P fell from near 2100 to 1800 also. In this regard, perhaps caution…perhaps very real defensiveness… is a reaosnable [sic] path to be taken."
Perhaps the reason for the surge is that Virtu's algos just wanted Gartman dead?
There is a reason for the saying "never say, never."
So after having been dead wrong on the reaction to the USD during three out of the past three major central bank announcements, has Goldman's FX strategist Robin Brooks finally thrown in the towel on his ongoing, and wrong, strong USD call? Not at all. Here is his latest note title "Check Please, Chair Yellen", in which he says "In line with our Fed view, we hold to our Dollar bullish call."
WTI crude extends it exuberant ramp to a 3rd day - heading for its 5th weekly gain - the longest since May, climbing above $42, reaching its highest in 3 months amid dollar weakness, falling output, and continued hope of a production freeze (at record levels with a record glut and weakening demand).What is most worrying, however, is this means Dennis Gartman has just a $2 window until "the end of his lifetime" at the dreaded $44.
"We are ambivalent as to the direction of stock prices at this point, and our ambivalence is reflected in the fact that we are very, very marginally net long of equities in our retirement fund here at TGL, having made only the smallest of changes to our position."
"At this point, it would be ill advised to suddenly turn bullish of equities but instead at this point it might even be rational and reasonable to consider reducing long positions and become more and more neutral of equities.... Likely we shall be adding to our derivatives positions while reducing our long positions today in order to bring our “net” exposure to something far smaller than it is."
Here are the two most actionable reasons why gold just broke out and soared to $1,260, and is fast approaching levels not seek since January 2015.
In an interview with Reuters Jennifer Ablan after DoubleLine Capital's February flow figures were released (it was a $2.2 billion inflow) , Gundlach said the firm is now considering closing out some of its long positions in the stocks that they purchased three weeks ago.... And just to avoid confusion, this is where Gundlach stands now: "I am bearish. There are just wiggles and jiggles in the markets."
The Simple Reason Why Stocks Are Soaring: Gartman "A Bit Net Shorter", Says "Market Is In Very, Very Bad Trouble"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/22/2016 08:51 -0400
If volume us supposed to follow the trend then the stock market is in very, very bad trouble indeed, for the volume is strong as the market weakens and its weak as the market weakens and its strong as the market rises.... we cut back on the long position we are holding in a small coal company headquartered in Illinois but otherwise we did nothing, leaving us a bit net shorter of the market
According to a very short the market, long gold, Dennis Gertman : "As of Friday’s close, for the year-to-date we were “up” 7.3%." So going into a day when he was short the market and long gold, and when he was supposedly up 5.7%, a day in which stocks soared and gold dropped, Gartman ended that very day up another 1.6% and is, in his own words, up 7.3% year-to-date.
Gold prices are breaking above triple resistance forming a technical bottom and channel breakout. This projects gold higher to 1,315 and 1,375. The gap in the distribution on the left shows 1,550 is a possibility,