"We wish to buy one unit each of Brent and WTI crude upon receipt of this commentary. We’ll risk no more than 3% from the current prices level and if nearby Brent were to trade above $57/barrel and if nearby WTI were trade above $55/barrel and were to remain there “For an hour or so to prove the merits of the moves."
"The TRILLION dollar question is then reiterated: when does all of this “inflation as a good thing” tip over into “inflation with no growth”—aka STAGFLATION? This continues to be the chief concern of clients on recent marketing swings."
"Although nearly every method we know of to measure relative value is equally over-extended to the upside, the great game of investment musical chairs continues. Illogic reigns; the “Melt Up” has begun in earnest and it will stop when it stops and not a moment before."
"We were modesty net short of equities in our retirement fund here at TGL, having taken a modest net short position via derivatives. Immediately upon seeing the report we ran to cover, “paying up” in the NYSE-pre-market to do so."
"We’ve brought a stop up behind that position that shall take us out at break-even, including the dividend, but we’ve no intention at this point of buying anything else and if we are taken out we’ll stand wholly aside and watch further developments."
"Risk does indeed happen fast but for now the risk is that stocks may move away to the upside! Those who are short shall panic; those not long shall have to become so… swiftly. We have been neutral for the past several weeks; it is time once again to be “pleasantly” long and so we shall be."
"We shall once again suggest that new purchases of stocks at these levels shall prove to be ill-advised in the not too distant future. The proper course of action, obviously, is to be long of equities but fearful of the inevitable correction, which will be violent and sharp when it happens."
OPEC succeeded in pulling off what many thought was impossible, overcoming mutual disdain and mistrust to reach a deal on reducing its oil output. Oil prices skyrocketed on the news, up more than 12% since the agreement was announced last week. But what if there is much less to the deal than meets the eye? What if OPEC does not actually follow through on the promised production cuts?
Risk evaluation is a given regarding anything in financial markets these days, and has been the case forever taking into account the multiple market crashes and "Melt-Ups" in almost every asset class for the last century of historical price data.
"At this point there is nothing that we can say other than protection must be taken; that positions on the long side have to be reduced into any strength that may develop; that we fear that the bull markets are indeed finished and that bear markets are now full engaged."
"We covered in a great portion of our short derivatives position and we added to our long position in the shares of a foreign steel producer immediately upon the opening of trading on the NYSE. We did more of the same mid-morning and by the day’s end finished effectively market neutral."