Department Of Commerce
The Manufacturing Recession That Won't Go Away: Factory Orders Rebound From 5 Year Lows, Decline For 17 MonthsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/04/2016 10:14 -0400
In 60 years, the US economy has never suffered a 17-month continuous YoY drop in Factory orders without being in recession. Which begs the question: are we in one now. Moments ago the Department of Commerce confirmed that in March, US factory orders - despite rising 1.1% sequentially and above the 0.6% expected - declined for 17th consecutive month on an annual basis, dropping 4.2% from a year ago.
While we all very capable of discerning the 'recovery' facts from the peddled recovery fiction throughout President Obama's reign, a close up over the last six months suggests things are getting worse in a hurry. As The Economic Collapse blog's Michael Snyder details, while most people seem to think that since the stock market has rebounded significantly in recent weeks that everything must be okay, that is not true at all.
In 60 years, the US economy has not suffered a 16-month continuous YoY drop in Factory orders without being in recession. Moments ago the Department of Commerce confirmed that this is precisely what the US economy did, when factory orders not only dropped for the 16th consecutive month Y/Y, after declining 1.7% from last month but at $454 billion for the headline number, this was the lowest print since the summer of 2011.
In the aftermath of dramatic tarfiffs imposed on China's steel exports in December, we asked how long until it responds with it own protectionist response: a necessary and sufficient condition for fully symmetric trade wars. It did so earlier today when, accused of flooding world markets with cheap steel, it imposed its own anti-dumping duties as high as 46.3% on electric steel products imported from Japan, South Korea and the European Union, the Ministry of Commerce said on Friday.
The future of America's energy policies will heavily depend on who our next president is. Each presidential candidate has strong views on energy policy...
Given the vicious downward spiral of competitive devaluation that is washing around the world's economic bathtub, it appears - just as we saw during The Great Depression - that currency wars have given way to mal-investment-fueled protectionism as US launches the first missile in the trade wars with a massive 266% tariff on imports of cold-rolled steel. “There’ll be a short-term benefit,“ said John Packard of Steel Market Update. ”However, in the long run, the U.S. mills are always going to want more tariffs, and it’s questionable how much more [protection] they can get."
According to a report by Mitsubishi UFJ's John Hermann, one of the most important, if volatile, series in the overall monthly update, that of commercial aircraft orders made absolutely no sense. As he notes, in January Boeing reported a 70% drop in actual aircraft unit orders (the same in dollar terms), and yet according to the Department of Commerce, the matched series of nondefense aircraft orders soared by 54% in January. How could this be? Simple: seasonal adjustments.
Durable Goods Stage Strong January Rebound After December Collapse; CapEx Shipments Continue To DragSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/25/2016 09:50 -0400
After imploding by 5% in December (revised to -4.6%), moments ago the Census department reported that January Durable Goods orders rose by 4.9%, far higher than the 2.9% rebound expected, driven mostly by the traditionally volatile transportation sector. Durable goods ex transports rose a more modest 1.8%, which was also higher than the 0.3% expected, and offsetting last month's 0.7% decline.
"it seems reasonable to judge that the Fed’s current political situation is more parlous than is the case among its overseas counterparts. For all of the above reasons, we believe the hurdle for NIRP in the US is quite high, and we would need to see recession-like conditions before the Fed seriously considered this option."
Perhaps weak manufacturing, construction, and trade data are mere outliers. Maybe the Fed can see beyond the fog to clearly capture the big picture. Or maybe the Fed has lost its marbles. Their outlook doesn’t jive with that of the regular working stiff.
China Proposes A Fix For Its Crashing Housing Market: "Transplant" 100 Million Farmers Into Its CitiesSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/24/2015 08:46 -0400
There is just one very big problem with this "solution"...
There is one thing that could dramatically slow down China's metal exports - tariffs, anti-dumping duties and other forms of protectionism. “What may slow down the exports is anti-dumping and protectionist measures that several countries have taken against cheap imports,” said Ernst & Young’s Agrawal. In other words, a trade war... which is precisely what the U.S. just launched by hiking tariffs on Chinese steel imports by a whopping 256%.
Amid the carnage in Macy's, Nordstrom, and JCPenney, one could be forgiven for expecting a weak retail sales print and sure enough...
"The weakness in the August BAC data suggests a high risk for softness in the Census Bureau advance retail sales report given that the two measures trend closely. While we know that the retail sales figures are volatile and subject to revisions, it is hard to ignore a weak report." Why is all of the above particularly important? Because with the August Retail Spending report due on September 15, it will be the last report on the economy the Fed will read ahead of its "most important if not ever then surely in the past decade" FOMC meeting starting on September 16, and concluding with the 2pm announcement on September 17.