Department Of Commerce

Donald Trump's Most Important Fed Appointment (Spoiler Alert: It's Not The Chair)

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is still at the helm and will be for another year. But two long-standing vacancies are available for the President immediately, and in them lies a key to understanding a fundamental relationship that should guide how we think about the Trump presidency and the very nature of financial and monetary system.

Nomi Prins On The Goldmanization Of President Trump

In his Inaugural Address, having nominated the wealthiest cabinet in American history, he proclaimed, “For too long, a small group in our nation's capital has reaped the rewards of government.”  Under Trump, an even smaller group will flourish -- in particular, a cadre of former Goldman Sachs executives. To put the matter bluntly, two of them (along with the Federal Reserve) are likely to control our economy and financial system in the years to come.

Trump Team Preparing "Dramatic Cuts To Government Spending"

According to a report from The Hill this morning, President-elect Trump's transition team is already working with career staff at the White House on plans to slash federal spending with significant cuts expected to the budgets of the Department of Commerce, Energy, Transportation, Justice and State, among others, totaling $10.5 trillion over 10 years.

Goldman's 10 Most Important Questions For 2017

Goldman Sachs is relatively optimistic about growth in 2017, for three reasons: first, despite the lack of spare capacity, US recession risk remains below the historical average; second, financial conditions should remain a growth tailwind - at least in the first half of 2017; and third, we expect a fiscal easing accumulating to 1% of GDP by 2018. However, uncertainty remains and here is what Jan Hatzius and his team believe are the ten most important questions for 2017.

As The Dust Settles: Goldman Q&A On Life In Trumplandia

Expect the election result to increase policy uncertainty, warns Goldman Sachs, as a result of an increased pace of legislative action in 2017 without clarity, so far, regarding which issues the administration will prioritize. Over the near-term, much will depend on how financial conditions respond to the policy positions of the new administration. Despite today’s favorable market reaction, investors may take a dimmer view on proposals to raise tariffs or otherwise restrict international trade.

Frontrunning: November 7

  • FBI boost for Hillary as tight race hits final day (Reuters)
  • Risk plays roar back as Clinton's prospects brighten (Reuters)
  • Stocks, Dollar Rally After FBI Finds No New Evidence to Charge Clinton (WSJ)
  • Don’t Worry When the Stock Market Goes Crazy After Election (BBG)
  • Republicans, Democrats vie for control of Congress on Tuesday (Reuters)
  • The Bond Market Is at an Epic Turning Point (BBG)

Goldman Fears "Persistent Headwind To Growth" As State/Tax Revenues Tumble

The latest confirmation that the US economy continues to deteriorate comes not from the Federal Government but from state-level data, where year-over-year growth in state tax revenues slowed dramatically in the last two quarters. As Goldman notes, this has subtracted an average of 0.25 percentage points from GDP growth, raising the question of whether municipal finances could again be a persistent headwind to growth.

"Pre-Crime" Returns To America With New Airbnb Law

With stupidity like this so pervasive in government, it’s no wonder why the productive and entrepreneurial spirit is being crushed in the Land of the Free. When a broken system and out-of-touch political class make it more difficult for people to produce, prosperity suffers.

Half Of American Adults Exist In A Government Accessible Facial Recognition Network

One of the key aspects of an increasingly pervasive use of facial recognition technology is the total lack of regulation or informed consent that goes along with the collection and use of this intimate personal information. It’s a total wild, wild west environment where both corporations and government basically think they can do whatever they want. Indeed, they will continue to do exactly that until we the people make enough of a stink about it.

Judge Denies Attempt To Block Transfer Of Internet Oversight

An Obama-appointed federal judge ruled Friday that the transfer of internet domain systems oversight to an international governing body can move forward, overruling opposition from several state attorneys general and lawmakers.

Did US Consumers Finally Tap Out? BofA Internal Card Data Shows Significant July Spending Slowdown

According to Bank of America's internal aggregated credit and debit card data, consumer spending slowed in July, with retail sales ex-autos down 0.3% mom on a seasonally adjusted basis. As the bank concludes, "In our view, this sets up for a softer Census Bureau retail sales report on  Friday – we would not be surprised to see either disappointing July sales and/or a downward revision to June."