Department Of Commerce

Frontrunning: September 21

  • Mark Zuckerberg’s Political Awakening (BBG)
  • Bank of Japan Sticks With Easy-Money Settings (WSJ)
  • Bank of Japan board member demands more stimulus (FT)
  • S&P downgrades China, says rising debt is stoking economic, financial risks (Reuters)
  • Boston’s Fate Lies With a Zombie Hurricane as Maria Moves North (BBG)

Gun Stocks Soar On Report Trump Set To Ease Export Rules

In a week in which the MIC already scored big with Monday's sale of Orbital, today it was the NRA's turn to rejoice, when gun stocks soared on a Reuters report that the Trump administration was preparing "to make it easier for American gun makers to sell small arms, assault rifles and ammunition" to foreign buyers. The stocks of Ruger, Smith & Wesson and American Outdoor brands have all soared by as much as 18% on the news.

Three Reasons Why Retail Sales Are About To Disappoint Bigly

Retail sales ex-autos, as measured by BAC aggregated credit and debit card data, declined 0.1% in August. Controlling for the increase in gasoline spending, retail sales ex-autos and gasoline declined 0.4%: the sharpest drop YTD, and it's not just Hurricane Harvey's fault...

Frontrunning: September 12

  • Trump Plans Aggressive Road Show to Sell Tax Overhaul (BBG)
  • Trump to weigh more aggressive U.S. strategy on Iran (Reuters)
  • Florida Turns to Recovery as Irma Moves North (WSJ)
  • What to Expect at Apple’s Biggest Event in Years (BBG)
  • A $150 Billion Misfire: How Forecasters Got Irma Damage So Wrong (BBG)

Consumption Exhaustion

"Despite policymakers’ lack of regard for this burden, it is important to keep in mind that, as debt accumulates and consumers become less capable of repaying those debts, deleveraging ensues. This means that households will become unable to sustain the lifestyle to which they have become accustomed. Whether debts will be resolved through repayment or default, economic progress will falter."

U.S. Restaurant Industry Stuck In Worst Collapse Since 2009

After 17 consecutive months of continuous declines for the restaurant industry - the longest stretch since 2009 - the end of the tunnel for the restaurant industry is nowhere in sight, and according to the latest monthly data, there was a sharp deterioration in the latest monthly data.

Frontrunning: June 27

  • Stocks, dollar ease as central bank officials take center stage (Reuters)
  • Euro surges on Draghi comments, dollar slips (Reuters)
  • Yuan Surges in Afternoon Trade Amid Talk PBOC Supported Currency (BBG)
  • U.S. threatens Syria, says Assad is planning chemical weapons attack (Reuters)
  • Google Gets Record $2.7 Billion EU Fine for Skewing Searches (BBG)

Frontrunning: April 19

  • As Trump warned N. Korea, 'armada' headed to Australia (Reuters)
  • Threat of Carrier Heading to Koreas Wasn’t All It Seemed (WSJ)
  • Markets Start to Ponder the $13 Trillion Asset Gorilla in the Room (BBG)
  • Investors’ Nightmare Scenario Takes Shape in French Election (WSJ)
  • Venezuelan opposition to hold 'mother of all marches' against Maduro (Reuters)

Why Is Loan Growth Collapsing: Goldman Has An Answer

"we believe the current C&I slowdown reflects payback from credit facility usage by commodities firms, many of which began drawing upon credit lines in late 2015 as financial conditions tightened and the debt issuance window closed" - Goldman

Americans Will Be The Loser In The Fed's Dangerous Game Of "Chicken"

Here is the real problem with the gap between the Fed and government’s outlook versus reality: the more they push to convince markets of the economy’s strength, the more they set us up for a crisis. When Americans finally wake up and realize the Fed and U.S. government were bluffing all along, there will be no safety net to keep the economy from crashing down.

The US Government Now Has Less Cash Than Google

"Our modern 'experts' tell us that the US government will always pay and that a debt default is impossible. Well, we’re living in a world where the 'impossible' keeps happening."