• Sprott Money
    03/27/2015 - 04:54
    At first glance, the title to this commentary seems facile, especially to those readers in higher income brackets. The reality, however, is that “investing in food” is a risk-free means of generating...

Deutsche Bank

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China Hard Landing: Blame The Smog





Bloomberg estimates industrial output may have to be slashed by a fifth in order for Beijing to hit its own pollution targets and by up to 40% if China wants its citizens to be able to breathe the same air as the rest of the world.

 
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Frontrunning: March 26





  • Saudi Arabia, allies launch air strikes in Yemen against Houthi fighters (Reuters)
  • Pilot on Crashed Jet Was Locked Out of Cockpit, NY Times Says (BBG)
  • Why Bombing This Tiny Oil Producer Is Roiling the Energy Market (BBG)
  • U.S.-led coalition, Iraqis pound Islamic State in Tikrit (Reuters)
  • Munger Says Prepare for Harder World as Buying Power Slides (BBG),Mocks Greek ‘Idiotic Idea’ You Can Vote Yourself Rich (BBG)
  • The Central Banker Who Saved the Russian Economy From the Abyss (BBG)
  • Bank of Canada says foreign buyers complicate housing market (Reuters)
  • Investors Scoop Up Companies’ Bonds (WSJ)
  • Espirito Santo Probe Turns Mariana Mortagua Into Portuguese Star (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: March 24





  • Germanwings Airbus crashes in France, 148 feared dead (Reuters)
  • Greece promises list of reforms by Monday to unlock cash (Reuters)
  • Merkel Points Tsipras Toward Deal With Greece’s Creditors (BBG)
  • Banks Shift Bond Portfolios -Move to ‘held to maturity’ category aims to guard against rising rates, shield capital  (WSJ)
  • Beijing to Shut All Major Coal Power Plants to Cut Pollution (BBG)
  • As Silence Falls on Chicago Trading Pits, a Working-Class Portal Also Closes (NYT)
  • Oil below $56 as Saudi output near record, China activity slows (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: March 23





  • Saudis keep on pumping, oil prices keep on slumping (Reuters)
  • Tenet Healthcare Nearing Deal to Buy United Surgical Partners (WSJ)
  • Dizzying Pre-IPO Tech Values Spurred by Rush of Hedge-Fund Money (BBG)
  • Russia threatens to aim nuclear missiles at Denmark ships if it joins NATO shield (Reuters)
  • Torrent of Cash Exits Eurozone (WSJ)
  • Draghi Cheerleads for Euro-Area Economy as Greek Risk Looms (BBG)
  • Fortescue Mines for More Financing Options (WSJ)
  • Topix Charts Evoke Calm Before ’13 Rout as Momentum Gains (BBG)
 
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When The World's Reserve Currency Flash Crashed: "I Haven’t Seen Anything Like It Since The Financial Crisis’





On Wednesday afternoon, just after the close of the market, the US Dollar, the world's reserve currency flash crashed. “I haven’t seen anything like it since the financial crisis,” said Paul Lambert, head of currency at Insight Investment, which manages $480 billion of assets. For a few minutes on Wednesday, the lack of dollar buyers caused a short-term freeze in electronic trading platforms, according to a New York-based trader at a major currency-dealing bank. “There was a lot of shouting on the desk, a lot of nervousness,” the trader said.

 
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Frontrunning: March 20





  • Clinton Charity Tapped Foreign Friends (WSJ)
  • Dollar Set for Worst Week Since ’13; S&P Futures Rise (BBG)
  • Shale Producers Have Found Another Lifeline: Shareholders (BBG)
  • BOJ Kuroda says no sign of 'currency war' brewing in world (Reuters)
  • Fed Is Pushing and Pulling on Rates Riddle (WSJ
  • Brent oil falls towards $54 on OPEC output, Iran (Reuters)
  • Iran Talks Stall Over Ending of Sanctions (WSJ)
 
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Lenin Was Right...





Recall Lenin’s quote: “The capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them.” Today, of course, the capitalists don’t even sell the rope; they give it away, for nothing. But what’s not to like? Stock investors are getting rich. Bondholders are making money. The government can spend as much as it likes. And the voters are bamboozled by it; they think it helps make the economy work better. This is going to be a hard habit to break. So, here’s the gist of my conclusion: Governments won’t break the habit of getting something for nothing. It will break them. But how?

 

 
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Hilsenrath's FOMC Preview: "No More Promises, Fed Is Injecting Uncertainty Back Into The Market"





There have been countless previews of the FOMC statement at 2pm today, all of them largely worthless and regurgitating the same exact stuff. The only one that matters, as it is the only one with the explicit blessing of the Fed (see "On The New York Fed's Editorial Influence Over The WSJ") in its attempt to manage expectations: that "drafted" by Jon Hilsenrath. And if what the WSJ economist writes in "Fed to Markets: No More Promises" is accurate, then fasten your seat belts, ladies and gentlemen, because we are about to enter some turbulence. "The Federal Reserve is about to inject uncertainty back into financial markets after spending years trying to calm investors’ nerves with explicit assurances that interest rates would remain low."

 
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Energy Credit Risk Soars Most In 2015 As Bankruptcies, Liquidations Loom





While investors have grown to used to knife-catching heroics in equity markets, the Energy credit markets have been a poster child of yield-reaching, bottom-guessing, dip-buying exuberance in the past six months. As every leg lower in oil was met with more Oil ETF buyers and bond buyers (or loan financers) as "the bottom is in," so each low has failed and new lows are made. The last few days have seen credit risk soar the most in 2015 in the energy sector as numerous firms enter bankruptcy or approach it with huge looming coupon and principal due. What is even more telling is the news of a huge liquidation sale of energy heavy equipment which will be the 'tell' for the entire industry if it is weak...

 
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The Best "Democracy" Money Can Buy: For Every Dollar Spent Influencing US Politics, Corporations Get $760 Back





Between 2007 and 2012, 200 of America’s most politically active corporations spent a combined $5.8 Billion on federal lobbying and campaign contributions. What they gave pales compared to what those same corporations got: $4.4 Trillion in federal business and support. Here is the visual representation of this stunning finding: for every dollar spent on influencing politics, the nation’s most politically active corporations received $760 from the government.

 
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Frontrunning: March 16





  • Germans Tired of Greek Demands Want Country to Exit Euro (BBG)
  • Weak euro powers European stocks to new highs (Reuters)
  • Siemens Cheers Euro Slump as Emerson Eases Dollar’s Sting (BBG)
  • A Police Gadget Tracks Phones? Shhh! It’s Secret (NYT)
  • If Economists Were Right, You Would Have a Raise by Now (BBG)
  • iWatch: who’s going to pay $17K for a device that will be obsolete in two years? (Barrons)
  • Ferguson Suspect Said to Claim He Wasn’t Firing at Police (BBG)
  • Why Bankers Are Leaving Finance for No-Salary Tech Jobs (BBG)
 
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Futures Rebound After EUR Finds 1.05 Support; China Stocks Soar; Im-"Patient" Fed On Deck





It started off as the perfect storm for futures: after Sunday night's latest plunge in WTI, which saw it drop to the lowest price since Lehman, the double whammy that has now forced Deutsche Bank to become the first major institution to forecast no growth for S&P500 EPS in 2015, namely the strong dollar, reared its ugly head and the EURUSD seemed dangerouly close to breaching the all important 1.04-1.05 support level we first noted last week. However, overnight parties tasked with preserving "financial stability" appear to have once again stepped in, and not only has the EURUSD rebounded off 1.05, but crude is now just barely down from the Friday close as all firepower is put to the same use, that sent the Shanghai Composite soaring by 2.3% overnight, and which sent the Dax over 12,000 for the first time ever.

 
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The Seal Is Broken: DB Is The First Major Bank To Predict Drop In 2015 S&P500 EPS





No matter how bad the overall profitability picture got, S&P500 earnings per share (assisted almost exclusively by a record amount of stock buybacks in 2015 putting downward pressure on the PS in EPS) would grow by the tiniest of amounts, just so the profit recession stigma could be avoided in a world in which the stock market is the last remaining bastion of faith in central planning and confidence in the economy. No more. Overnight, Deutsche Bank finally did the unthinkable, and "broke the seal" of optimistic groupthink, when its strategist David Bianco became the first sell-sider to forecast that not only will 2015 EPS not grow (at 118 on a non-GAAP basis, this will be unchanged Y/Y), but "down a bit ex bank litigation costs."

 
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