The absolute disconnect of asset prices from economic activity is and will continue to be unlike anything we have seen. This is no more of a "free market" than shooting a cow in a pasture is "hunting". "Invest" accordingly, but know full well the ill gotten gains will one-day, someday, sooner than later, be entirely gone and we'll all know what it felt like to be Bernie Madoff clients.
A problem has emerged as Wall Street scrambles to trade on Trump tweets: while HFT strategies can quickly identify that a stock was referenced in a tweet, isolating if the actual message is bullish, bearish or indifferent presents a major challenge.
Potential Winners: Companies with a majority of their input costs contained within the U.S; Potentially lower tax rate of 20% on sales and full deduction for input costs; U.S. Exporters: as export revenues are not subject to U.S. tax. Potential Losers:Products, services, and intangibles imported into the U.S.; Automakers, Oil and Gas, to Retailers can be impacted; U.S. Multinationals that have relied on aggressive tax planning to shift earning overseas.
Deutsche Bank’s Turkish unit rejected claims that it’s plotting to undermine the economy, and said it’s “unacceptable” for the lender’s name to be associated with terrorism. The statement came after the daily Yeni Safak accused Deutsche Bank and other German institutions of “economic terror” against Turkey by recalling loans to companies before their their due dates.
"In our estimation the investment climate for risk assets after the election looks a lot like the environment before the election: risky. And while there are many valid reasons to cheer a change in tax policy, saving the U.S. and global economy from its past excesses is not one of them."
GM stock is surging after CEO Mary Barra, who is presenting at Deutsche Bank conference, gave good news to shareholders when she revealed the company's 2017 adjusted EPS forecast, which at $6.00-$6.50 was well above the consensus estimate of $5.73, and also substantially above the 2016 year end guidance which forecast the carmaker would make "at the high end" of a $5.50-$6.00 range.
While mainstream media clung to The White House spin of record monthly streak of jobs gains after Friday's payrolls, The Fed's own Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) paints a very different picture of the health of the American job market. With a 0.3% drop in December, the LMCI is now down 5.8% year-over-year, the biggest plunge since Jan 2010.
“Investor appetite for U.S. equities is seemingly insatiable,” said David Santschi, chief executive officer of TrimTabs. “U.S. equity ETFs have had inflows on all but six trading days since the U.S. presidential election, and the buying volume has been by far the strongest we’ve ever seen.”