Deutsche Bank

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As Market Awaits "Santa" Draghi, The ECB Is "Chasing Its Own Tail"

“If the ECB merely does on 3 December what is effectively priced by the market, we could collectively wake up on 4 December feeling a bit deflated, like a child discovering on Christmas day that his parents ‘only’ gave him what he/she had asked for, without the ‘little extra’ that would have kept him/her smiling all day long."

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To Junk Bond Traders "It Almost Feels Like 2008"

Despite distressed-debt funds suffering their worst losses since 2008, mainstream apologists continue to largely ignore the carnage in the credit market (even though veteran bond managers have urged "it's not just energy, it's everything.") With the number of loan deals pricing below 80 (distressed) at cycle peaks, and "a less diverse group of investors holding a lot more bonds," price swings continue to be wild but as DB's Melentyev warns, initially "all of this looks random when there is no underlying news to support the big moves. But eventually a narrative emerges -- maybe we have turned the corner on the credit cycle."

GoldCore's picture

Global Bond Markets: Where Did All the Liquidity Go?

The world is awash with debt. With central banks increasing their balance sheets through quantitative easing, simultaneously pushing down interest rates and taking huge chunks of the market out of circulation, investors have had to stray beyond developed market government bonds in search of yield.

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How To Trade The Fed's Upcoming "Policy Error" In Three Parts

"... the next 12-18 months will be divided into three periods corresponding to the three distinct regimes of market dynamics. They can be summarized by the following modes of the curve: short-term tactical bear flatteners on the back of a Fed liftoff story, followed by volatile bear steepeners of the “taper-tantrum” type around mid-year, and a bull-flattening finale as structural factors deem rate hikes to be a policy mistake."

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Swiss Bank "Goes There", Applies Negative Rates To Retail Deposits

"We have determined that applying a negative rate was a more transparent and fairer solution for our clientele. This decision on negative rates is costing us a lot of money -- pretty much the equivalent of our entire annual profit last year."

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"How Is This Possible" Deutsche Bank Asks, Looking At The Canary In The Junk Bond Mine

"The hardest questions we are trying to reconcile here are how is that possible to see all these signs of weakness under the surface being balanced by very strong equity markets and upbeat employment picture. One of these sides has to be wrong..."

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Frontrunning: November 23

  • Brussels on Edge as Lockdown Continues (WSJ)
  • Stocks Pare Decline as Crude Oil Erases Drop on Saudi Comments (BBG)
  • Italy’s Eni Plans to Pump Arctic Oil, After Others Abandon the Field (WSJ)
  • Treasuries Decline as Economists Say GDP to Be Revised Higher (BBG)
  • Why the Housing Rebound Hasn’t Lifted the U.S. Economy Much (WSJ)
  • Argentina Fever Is Back for Investors as Kirchner Rival Triumphs (BBG)
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Global Stocks Fall For First Time In Six Days As Commodity Rout Spills Over Into Stocks

As a result of the global commodity weakness, global stocks have fallen for the first time in six days as the sell-off in commodities continued, dragging both US equity futures and European stocks lower. However, putting this in context, last week the MSCI All Country World Index posted its biggest weekly gain in six weeks: alas, without a coincident rebound in commodity prices, it will be merely the latest dead cat bounce.

Tyler Durden's picture

Equities vs 'Everything Else' - Deutsche Bank Warns "One Of These Sides Has To Be Wrong"

The hardest questions we are trying to reconcile here are how is that possible to see all these signs of weakness under the surface – including weak commodities, tightening credit, retrenching consumer spending – being balanced by very strong equity markets and upbeat employment picture. One of these sides has to be wrong in its assessment of the current macro environment, and seeing both of them extending well into the future appears unlikely to us.

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Presenting BofA's "Number One Black Swan Event For The Global Oil Market In 2016"

"Can the government maintain this strategy of flooding the oil market? In our view, it is unlikely that Saudi leaders would want to exacerbate its ongoing reserve drain by pushing prices below $40/bbl. After all, pressure will quickly build on the riyal’s 30 year peg to the USD if Brent crude oil prices keep falling."

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Frontrunning: November 20

  • French, U.S. Troops Enter Mali Hotel as Gunmen Hold Hostages (BBG)
  • Top suspect seen on CCTV in metro during Paris attacks (Reuters)
  • Paris Attacks’ Alleged Ringleader, Now Dead, Had Slipped Into Europe Unchecked (WSJ)
  • Global shares march on as alarm bells ring for metals (Reuters)
  • European Stocks Rise With Asian Shares as Zinc, Ringgit Advance (BBG)
  • World leaders arrive for summit amid heavy security (Reuters)
Tyler Durden's picture


SUNE is down almost 8% this morning, backunder $3.00, as yesterday Twitter-based "Blackstone buying SUNE Debt" rumor is dashed in the epic realization that you might be the last one in line for the exits...

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These Are The 7 "Risks" That Bulls Are Banking On Not Happening

...or to put it another way, here is what Deutsche Bank believes are the only two "upside risks" for markets - "a smooth start to Fed tightening" and "eurozone growth surprises to the upside." Other than that, hope that The Fed reverts to old norms and eases, un-tightens is the last best hope for this decoupled, divergent equity market...

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Fed Minutes Preview: Is The FOMC As Hawkish As It Sounded In October?

Well, we’re less than one hour away from the release of the October Fed minutes. Who’s excited? Despite the fact that the October NFP print came after the FOMC meeting, market “bird watchers” will still be keen on parsing every last word for hints around what the very “data dependent” Fed may or may not announce next month. Here's an early take on what to look for.

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