The increasingly unstable footing that we find ourselves standing on is reflected in widening credit spreads that demonstrate that CONFIDENCE is indeed collapsing. We are on the precipice of what can only be described as a rising systemic risk for all markets.
After starting out strongly this morning, with DB stock trading just shy of $17/share, European banks have seen some weakness in the past 30 minutes following a report from Reuters, in which sources were cited as saying that there is "firm support for a deposit rate cut within the European Central Bank's Governing Council."
Deustche Bank stock is ripping 10% higher after confirming old news that it will undertake a modest debt buyback of $2 billion and €3 billion (not including the CoCos). Have no fear though as Wolfgang Schaeuble proclaimed Deutsche Bank is a "strong bank" that ios "resilient" and "well positioned."
As the following chart from Reuters shows, the year-to-date stock price performance for most European banks is on pace to far surpass - to the downside - the dreadful for the global financial system 2008.
DB's Jim Reid today writes that "Markets are crying out for a circuit breaker at the moment." There is just one problem: nobody knows what this circuit breaks would and should be, or if it would even work.
The previous "biggest crisis in history" was in 1893 when a serious economic depresion hit America... we just topped that in terms of "crisis"
“We have listened to feedback and as a result decided to change the way these cost savings are to be achieved"...
While broad-based contagion from Deustche Bank's disintegration is clear in European, US, and Asian bank risk, there is another major financial institution whose counterparty risk concerns just went vertical...
Gold has surged over 3% today on increased safe haven demand as stocks and in particular bank stocks see sharp falls again.
"Whatever it takes" is not enough, it would appear as the fragility and interconnectedness forced upon the European banking/sovereign finance ponzi has rapidly come home to roost for Draghi and his followers. Peripheral bond risk has flipped from "hold your nose" buys to panic sells with Portugal risk exploding 200bps in the last week. As the European banking system's credit risk rises 2012-crisis-like, it seems belief in a bigger bazooka is fading fast.
"Worse than Lehman" is how one European bond market trader described the carnage this week as the brief respite that ECB monetization and debt-buyback rumors provided yesterday have morphed into utter destruction this morning. European (and US) banks are a sea of contagious red with Deutsche Bank the tip of the collapse spear. Credit risk on Deutsche has exploded this morning with Sub CDS trading up 85bps to a record high 540bps... eerily reminiscent of the pre-Lehman bankruptcy week in 2008.
Time to panic now?
Hong Kong traders are back from vacation, and with few options on the table, they are buying the one asset that provides the best cover to central banks losing faith, demonstrated most vividly by the total failure of the BOJ, and as a result just as Yen soars above 113, gold has taken out the numerous $1,200 stops and is currently surging to levels not seen in almost a year.
EU regulators have joined their counterparts in the US and Britain in probing the SSA market where banks may have colluded on price quotes. The big question is whether Deutsche Bank, which is struggling to reassure a nervous market, will find itself in the European Commission's crosshairs.
It was illuminating, if not surprising, that during an interview with Bloomberg TV discussing the future of Deutsche Bank, John Mack said that "there’s no question in my mind, it is absolutely good for every penny." In other words, "Deutsche Bank is fine." Why is he so confident? According to Mack, "this idea that I heard yesterday, the possibility of not making their interest payments, it’s just absurd. The government will not let that happen."