Well, we’re less than one hour away from the release of the October Fed minutes. Who’s excited? Despite the fact that the October NFP print came after the FOMC meeting, market “bird watchers” will still be keen on parsing every last word for hints around what the very “data dependent” Fed may or may not announce next month. Here's an early take on what to look for.
"If You Get Enquiries Just Obfuscate And Stonewall" - How Barclays Rigged The FX Market For Seven YearsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/18/2015 12:28 -0500
“Do not involve Sales in anyway [sic] whatsoever. In fact avoid mentioning the existence of the whole BATS Last Look functionality. If you get enquiries just obfuscate and stonewall.... for the future, sales absolutely 100% do not know about the existence of last look and it shouldn’t be a concern for them... IF any client does call up about a rejected trade . . . it is important that you state in any communication ‘THE TRADE WAS REJECTED BECAUSE OF LATENCY.’ . . . DO NOT talk about P&L on trades."
The Fed's Bill Dudley confirmed this morning why The Fed is so keen to raise rates no matter what - "liftoff will signal The Fed's confidence in the US economy." In other words, the 'con' continues... We have two simple questions - 1) Given the chart below, which 'economy' is The Fed confident in? and 2) What is The Fed going to say when they reverse the rate hike (as we have seen with every nation who has tried to raise rates since 2010)?
It Will SUNE Be Over: Axiom Says SunEdison "Credit Event Appears More Likely", Sees Price Dropping To $2/ShareSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/18/2015 07:31 -0500
As @the_real_fly says, "it will SUNE be over" and perhaps catalyzing the ending is a brand new note by Axiom Capital Research titled "The Nightmare Before Christmas” – Credit Event Appears More Likely than Presaged, in which the analyst Gordon Johnson sees at least another 33% of downside before the stock finally stabilizes at something resembling a fair value of $2.00
The Trade-Weighted US Dollar has risen almost 19% over the past 18 months - the fastest pace of increase on record - and is now at its highest level since 2003. As we noted previously, this is not unequivocally good for American corporate profits... and if you believe The Fed's Stan Fischer - the worst effects of this soaring exchange rate are yet to come... Most of the impact of exchange rate moves come after that first year. So we’re only just getting into the business end of the impact of the dollar’s strength on the US economy. And the Fed are about to hike?
- Belgian Police 'Arrest' Public Enemy No.1 (Sky News)
- France Widens Crackdown at Home as Bombs Rain on Islamic State (BBG)
- Putin Goes From G-20 Pariah to Player at Obama Turkey Talk (BBG)
- Paris Attacks: 150 Raids as France Goes to 'War With Terrorism' (NBC)
- 'Rocket Launcher Found' In French Police Raids (Sky)
- Geopolitical worries lift oil after Paris attacks, but glut weighs (Reuters)
- Japan's economy falls back into recession again (BBC)
"They helped us understand what was going on beyond what you see on the screens."
We just got a confirmation that Ackman may not only not have been "brazenly intelligent" but was downright stupid when moments ago we learned that a District Judge in Santa Ana, California, David Carter, has said Valeant and Ackman must both face a lawsuit accusing them of insider trading in Allergan before making an unsuccessful takeover bid for the maker of Botox.
Global Stocks Fall For 5th Day On Disturbing Chinese Inflation Data; Renewed Rate Hike Fears; Copper At 6 Year LowSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/10/2015 06:58 -0500
The ongoing failure of China to achieve any stabilization in its economy, after already cutting interest rates six times in the past year, and the prospect of a U.S. interest rate hike in December, had made markets increasingly jittery and worried which is not only why the S&P 500 Index had its biggest drop in a month, but thanks to the soaring dollar emerging market stocks are falling for a fourth day - led by China - bringing their decline in that period to almost 4 percent, and the global stock index down for a 5th consecutive day.
As Q3 Earnings Season Winds Down, A Summary Of Where We Stand And The 4 Main Themes From Conference CallsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/09/2015 20:55 -0500
With the third quarter earnings season almost over, and 90% of companies having reported, here is a quick look at where we stand and what has emerged as the 4 main themes during earnings calls.
The Oil Wars Heat Up: Russia, Iraq Steal Saudi Market Share While Oman Blasts OPEC As "Irresponsible"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/09/2015 14:30 -0500
While the stock market had one of its best months in years, it was, like the jobs report, uncorroborated by almost everything else. The junk bond bubble, in particular, stands in sharp and stark refutation of whatever stocks might be incorporating, especially if that might be based upon assumptions of Yellen’s re-found backbone. As noted on several prior occasions, swap spreads have been sinking fast and to unprecedented levels. Though mainstream commentary will provide plausible-sounding excuses, mostly about corporate or even UST issuance, that is only because these places will not even consider that Janet Yellen has it all wrong; thus, they only search for possibilities that allow that narrative to remain undisturbed even though that narrative itself can never account for negative spreads.
The Sellside Reacts: "December Liftoff Is A Lock" But "There Is No Such Thing As A Dovish Rate Hike"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/06/2015 09:25 -0500
"Barring disaster, this makes December liftoff a lock. It won’t stop the FOMC from being very dovish sounding and reiterating the commitment to a very slow path, as Evans did on TV a few minutes ago. The question is whether the market believes them if the numbers keep coming in on the strong side."
The USDollar Index is soaring (hitting its highest since early April and approaching 2015 highs) as the probability of a December rate hike hits 74%. This is not unequivocally good for a large number of American firms..
Bullard Reveals The Fed's Biggest Headache: Convincing The Market Slowing Jobs Is Good For The EconomySubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/06/2015 08:11 -0500
"We are expecting that to happen. It would be normal, and that would not indicate poor macroeconomic performance.”