Deutsche Bank

Main Street is vulnerable to leveraged trading algorithms and Brazilian bonds because it’s not just exotica that is overleveraged. Risk-off, in short, is no longer just a temporary swing of the pendulum, guaranteed to reverse in a year or two. As amazing as this sounds, we’ve borrowed so much money that as hedge funds go, so goes the world.

Another possible step would be to reduce short-term interest rates below zero if needed to provide additional accommodation... Could negative interest rates be a policy response that the Federal Reserve could choose to employ in a future crisis? ... these are transitional problems, but they might be sufficient to make a move to negative rates difficult to implement on short notice.

Important pillars of the bull case evaporated throughout 2015. Global price pressures weakened, the global Credit backdrop deteriorated and the global economy decelerated. The huge bets on central bank policies left markets at high risk for abrupt reversals and trade unwinds – 2015 The Year of the Erratic Crowded Trade. Indeed, a global bear market commenced yet most remain bullish. Serious and objective analysts would view this ominously.

Iin an interview to be aired tomorrow on Wall Street Week, Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass says that "this has been one of the worst years in the last ten"as a result of his dogmatic views on energy prices. And yet, instead of backing out the Texan is doubling down: "If you are going to allocate capital for the next three to five years, you should do it now" into the energy space over the next 6 months. Will he be right this time? Find out in 12 months.

“We will satisfy the demand of our customers. We no longer limit production. If there is demand, we will respond. We have the capacity to respond to demand," Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters on Wednesday, underscoring the kingdom's belligerent stance as "lower for longer" heads into 2016. Meanwhile, Russia's Finance Ministry may reconsider its forecast for $50/bbl crude, a move which could inflate Moscow's budget deficit.

• The World's Richest People Got Poorer This Year (BBG)
• Oil hovers near 11-year lows on abundant supply, slowing demand (Reuters)
• Oil-Producing States Battered as Tax-Gushing Wells Are Shut Down (BBG)
• A Bold Few Traders Earn Billions Flouting Rivals (WSJ)
• Islamic State ruling aims to settle who can have sex with female slaves (Reuters)
• Winter Storm Snarls Republican Presidential Traffic (BBG)
• Donald Trump Urges Supporters to the Polls (BBG)

One year ago, the two most crowded trades going into 2015 were being long the USD and short US Treasurys. While the former trade had questionable success, the latter most certainly did not work and while hedge-fund managers and other large speculators spent December 2014 setting the biggest bets against Treasuries in four years, fast-forwarding 12 months later we find that the smartest money in the room has fully abandoned those massive short Treasury bets.

In a bid to shore up its finances in the face of self-inflicted oil wounds, Saudi Arabia is shaking up the welfare state by raising prices on everything from domestic fuel to water. Apparently, persisting in the war of attrition against the US shale complex is paramount - even if it means making life harder for everyday Saudis so the monarchy can buy itself some budget breathing room.

Sadly, for Germany, this is precisely what is not happening. According to Deutsche Welle, a new survey has revealed that most Germans believe the influx of refugees will not provide an economic boost, in fact quite the opposite: only 16 percent of those surveyed agreed with the statement "the influx of refugees will result in more economic opportunities than problems for us."  The worst news for Merkel is that a majority of Germans - 56 percent - believe the country is not up to the challenge of dealing with the influx. In small towns of less than 5,000 people, this figure rose to 66 percent.

Saudi Arabia has released its official budget numbers for 2015 as well as projections for next year. As it turns out, Riyadh is weathering the storm better than analysts expected, meaning the war of attrition with US producers is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, meaning "lower for longer" oil prices and even more shale defaults in the future.

The last trading week of 2015 begins on a historic precipice for stocks: as reported over the weekend, the U.S. stock market has not been lower for any year ending in a “5? since 1875. That streak is now in jeopardy, because following Thursday's shortened holiday session which ended with an abrupt selloff, the overnight session has seen continued weakness across global assets in everything from Chinese stocks which tumbled the most since November 27, to commodities (WTI  is down 2.5%) to European stocks (Stoxx 600 -0.4%), to US equity futures down 0.4% on what appears to be an overdue dose of Santa Rally buyers' remorse.

Good things are coming for beaten-down commodity investors in 2016...

• Oil up after U.S. crude stocks drop, still close to 11-year lows (Reuters)
• Global Stocks Rally; Mining, Metals Shares Lead Gains (WSJ)
• OPEC Sees Demand for Its Crude Oil Falling for Rest of Decade (BBG)
• The Trouble With Sovereign-Wealth Funds (WSJ)
• U.S. Calls for 256% Tariff on Imports of Steel From China (BBG)
• Iraqi troops expected to drive ISIS from Ramadi in days (Reuters)

• Battered oil wins respite, lifts stocks (Reuters)
• Oil Halts Decline as Emerging Market Stocks Climb on China (BBG)
• Bonds Set to Beat Stocks Globally in 2015 After China Falters (BBG)
• SpaceX Falcon rocket nails safe landing in pivotal space feat (Reuters)
• China Leaders Flag More Stimulus After Top Economic Meeting (BBG)
• SEC to Retrench Case Against SAC’s Steven A. Cohen (WSJ)