Deutsche Bank

Because the only people worse at their jobs than weathermen are economists...

"When central bankers start talking like FX strategists, it can signal something important"...

"The market is now observing itself from another angle as an observer of the observer of the observers."

Greece went to the polls on Sunday with a choice that really wasn't a choice and even as Alexis Tsipras looks set to prevail the most shocking electoral outcome is this: neo-Nazi Golden Dawn is set to come in third and garnered the most support of any party among Greece's unemployed.

"At a recent investor gathering a question was asked, prior to the FOMC meeting, in the spirit of why the Fed should raise rates, whether or not anyone could argue that tapering itself was a “mistake”. It is an interesting question but the answer is surely a resounding “yes”. While a counterfactual is hard to prove, the impact of tapering in rates space is self evident. From the moment it began we saw a relentless fall in long term rates and a return to where those rates more or less stood around the onset of (endless) QE3." - DB

On Thursday, the Fed made it clear that its reaction function has changed. "Data dependency" is gone (or at least relegated to the backburner in times of global turmoil), and international and financial market developments are now officially guiding the FOMC's (tentative) hand. This epochal shift has left market participants asking one very simple question: "Ok, now what?" 

The current surge in deflationary pressures is not just due to the recent fall in oil prices, but rather a global epidemic of slowing economic growth. While Janet Yellen addressed this "disinflationary" wave during her post-meeting press conference, the Fed still maintains the illusion of confidence that economic growth will return shortly. Unfortunately, this has been the Fed's "Unicorn" since 2011 as annual hopes of economic recovery have failed to materialize.

Don't look now but Greece (remember them?) is headed back to the polls on Sunday in an election that pits a watered down version of Alex Tsipras and Syriza against the conservative New Democracy. With Syriza's original vision relegated to the realm of "wishful thinking", Greeks face a choice that really is no choice at all.

"What scares me, or what worries me, is what the next downturn in the economy looks like, with asset prices where they are and a lesser ability of central banks to ease monetary policy."

Goldman Sachs said yesterday that financial markets are vulnerable because nobody can agree on what the Fed will do. While equity investors have been anticipating this moment with all the excitement and tension of a prizefight, as Bloomberg reports, bets on the outcome from the Federal Reserve’s rate decision are far more complicated than simply “win or lose” for stocks. Amid the tumultuous background, here are predictions of nine money managers and strategists on what to expect this afternoon...

Whether Janet Yellen admits it or not, you can bet that going into today’s most important Fed meeting ever (until the next one) the supposedly “data dependent” FOMC has taken a good hard look at what’s happening in China in the wake of Beijing’s not-so-smooth transition to a new currency regime. A fresh look at the data suggests outflows from July through mid-Septemeber total more than $300 billion.

Kyle Bass shared his macro views during the “Squawk on the Street”

Going into Thursday, everyone - and we do mean everyone - is scrambling to predict which asset classes are most susceptible to a Fed hike. Amid the rampant confusion, BofAML asked fund managers to weigh in. Here are the results.

News That Matters

First it was Deutsche Bank, and now UniCredit. "Italy's biggest bank by assets, is planning to cut around 10,000 jobs, or 7 percent of its workforce, as it seeks to slash costs and boost profits, a source at the bank told Reuters on Monday," Reuters reports.