Deutsche Bank

LIBOR Pains

LIBOR is a benchmark reference rate (which explains why some banks were so eager to manipulate it). The pricing of all kinds of floating-rate debt is tied to it (corporate loans, mortgages, student loans, credit card debt, and assorted derivatives, such as currency and interest rate swaps, etc.). That has now become a problem.

China Manufacturing PMI Jumps To Five Year High

China's reflation story (on the back of a record amount of debt created last year) was put on display on Friday morning when both the Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI rose more than expected, with the Manufacturing PMI rising to a level not seen since April 2012.

Government Shutdown Odds Rise To 40% According To Deutsche Bank

According to Deutsche Bank, there is a significant chance that the Freedom Caucus will reject a new continuing resolution due to their opposition to the continued funding of Planned Parenthood and Obamacare, while Trump’s spending plans for a border wall will see opposition from both parties. As a result, the bank estimates the probability of a government shutdown at roughly 40% and notes that the next 2 weeks will be critical to watch.

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are the consumer confidence report on Tuesday, the third estimate of Q4 GDP on Thursday, and the PCE report as well as Personal Income & Spending data on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week.

Frontrunning: March 27

  • Markets Slide on Doubts that Trump Can Deliver (BBG)
  • Dollar hits four-month low as Trump trade deflates (Reuters)
  • These Charts Show Alarm Bells Ringing on Trump Trade (BBG)
  • White House may court Democrats on tax reform (Reuters)
  • Republicans Could Have Another Fight Over Tax Overhaul (WSJ)
  • 'Religious left' emerging as U.S. political force in Trump era (Reuters)

"Germany’s Dumbest Bank" Makes $5.4 Billion Transfer In Error

“The mistake was rapidly identified and eliminated, and the amounts overpaid were successfully demanded back. We regret that during works on the systems, this incident could happen due to human error owing to a configuration mistake.”

Frontrunning: March 24

  • Trump Says If Vote on Health Bill Fails, Obamacare Stays (WSJ)
  • Risky House healthcare vote to test Trump's negotiating skills (Reuters)
  • Trump Dares GOP in High-Stakes Vote on Troubled Health Bill (BBG)
  • All drill, no frack: U.S. shale leaves thousands of wells unfinished (Reuters)
  • Twitter explores subscription-based option for first time (Reuters)

Credit Suisse Shares Tumble On Report It May Sell $3 Billion In Stock

First Deutsche Bank, now Credit Suisse: according to Bloomberg, the second largest Swiss bank, is also preparing to take advantage of euphoric markets and is considering selling stock valued at more than 3 billion Swiss francs ($3 billion) as it seeks to boost capital levels. The news sent the stock sliding.

Global Stocks Rise; Euro Surges To 6 Week High After French Presidential Debate

European stocks are modestly in the green as gains in banks and oil companies offset declines in miners. Asian stocks and S&P futures rise with Emerging-market stocks extending their longest winning streak since August on the back of the 5th consecutive daily drop in the USD. The euro rose to the strongest in six weeks after a French presidential debate eased market concerns about a possible Le Pen win.

Deutsche: The Fed Gave Trump Just Enough Rope To Hang Himself With

"The future is bimodal with volatility to be found between politics vs. policy... Either political bottlenecks clear and the stimulus gets approved and goes full force leading to higher growth potential with structural steepening of the curve, or political tensions effectively sabotage either its arrival or content (or both), and the curve initially bear flattens or even twists with rate shorts capitulation accelerating the rally of the back end."