• EconMatters
    11/30/2015 - 16:21
    The ISIS group sells most of its crude directly to independent traders at the wellhead for $20-$45 a barrel earning the group an average of $1.5 million a day.

Deutsche Bank

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Frontrunning: November 5

  • BOE Stays Cautious on Rate-Hike Timing as Inflation Outlook Cut (BBG)
  • China Enters Bull Market (WSJ)
  • Britain says Islamic State likely brought down Russian plane (Reuters)
  • Dollar jumps as markets fix on December rate expectations (Reuters)
  • Activist Investor Bill Ackman Plays Defense (WSJ)
  • BOJ Survey Data Reveals Signs of Growing Inequality in Japan (BBG)
  • UAW Warns of General Motors Strike If Workers Fail to Approve Contract (WSJ)
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Malaysian PM's Goldman-Financed Slush Fund Now Linked To Defunct Australian Penny Stock Firm

The story behind Malaysia PM Najib Razak's Goldman-backed slush fund just got even stranger as it now appears some $2.3 billion in mystery money tied to an ill-fated investment with the Saudis ended up being managed by an Australian penny stock pusher via a shady Cayman Islands account. 

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Here's Which Mid-East Oil Producers Are Going Broke In The Face Of The New "Crude" Reality

There's a long way to go for the Saudis and the UAE to get back into the black and indeed, even Qatar is now set to post red ink...

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It's Just Not Saudi Arabia's Year: First Oil Prices, Now This...

When Saudi Arabia moved to Plaxico themselves last November by killing the petrodollar in an effort to bankrupt the US shale space and tighten the screws on Moscow, Riyadh set in motion a series of events that culminted in a 20% fiscal deficit and, most recently, an S&P downgrade. Now, the kingdom is not only running out of money, but water and food as well.

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SocGen Explains Why "Shorting During US Reporting Season" Is A Bad Idea

"During the busy reporting weeks, upgrades rise relative to downgrades only for this to reverse during ‘quiet’ periods when companies revert to guiding numbers back down again. Why is this important? History shows that during the busiest reporting weeks the S&P 500 has risen 60% of the time versus less than 50% during the quietest weeks. The simple message is this: don’t be short during US reporting seasons."

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Frontrunning: October 30

  • World stocks on course for best month in four years (Reuters)
  • Global Stocks Up Amid Stimulus Hopes (WSJ)
  • BOJ Refrains From Adding Stimulus Even as Inflation, Growth Wane (BBG)
  • U.S. Avoids Debt Default as Congress Passes Fiscal Plan (BBG)
  • China naval chief says minor incident could spark war in South China Sea (Reuters)
  • Exclusive Club: No High-Frequency Traders Allowed at Luminex (WSJ)
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London Property Bubble Set To Burst - UBS and Deutsche Warn

A bursting of property bubbles in London and New York would be expected to have an impact on national economies and indeed on national property markets. Sentiment would be badly impacted. Caution should be the order of the day.

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Deutsche Bank Reports Massive Loss, Will Cut 35,000 Jobs, Exit 10 Countries In Sweeping Overhaul

As tipped earlier this month, Deutsche Bank just turned in a Q3 loss of €6 billion as a raft of writedowns hit the bottom line. The bank also announced more details of "Strategy 2020", which include layoffs and a corporate rethink that will see Europe's largest bank exit a multitude of markets. 

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Frontrunning: October 29

  • Fed puts December rate hike firmly on the agenda (Reuters)
  • Charting the Markets: A More Hawkish Fed Rattles Investors (BBG)
  • China to modernize and improve fiscal and tax systems (Reuters)
  • Deutsche Bank to Cut 35,000 Jobs in Overhaul (WSJ)
  • Deutsche Bank Said to Near $200 Million Sanctions Settlement (BBG)
  • Barclays profits drop as it abandons cost-cutting targets (FT)
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Futures Fade As Hawkish Fed Deemed Not So Bullish After All

Based on the overnight market prints which are an oddly reddish shade of green, it took algos about 12 hours to realize that the reason they soared for most of October, namely hopes of an easier Fed which were launched with the terrible September jobs report and continued with increasingly worse US economic report in the past month, can not be the same reason they also soared yesterday after the announcement of a more hawkish than expected Fed statement which envisioned a stronger US economy and a removal of foreign considerations, which even more curiously took place on even worse data than the Fed's far more dovish September statement.

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Europe's Largest Bank Just Scrapped Its Dividend

Deutsche Bank is going through a painful restructuring that began with the ouster of co-CEOs Anshu Jain and Jürgen Fitschen and culminated in new CEO John Cryan’s move to eliminate a quarter of the workforce, or some 23,000 people. Well don’t look now, but just moments ago, Europe’s biggest bank eliminated the dividend.

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World's Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund Has Worst Quarter In 4 Years After Losing 21% On Chinese Stocks

Norway's $860 billion sovereign wealth fund (tasked with managing the country's vast oil wealth) just had its worst quarter in 4 years and its first back-to-back quarterly loss since 2009 after an array of EM bets went awry. Meanwhile, the government is set to start making withdraws from the fund as slumping crude prices have effectively reduced inflows to zero. 

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Frontrunning: October 28

  • Global shares rise as Riksbank helps ease Fed wait (Reuters)
  • Asian Stocks Retreat Before Fed as Material Shares Lead Losses (BBG)
  • For Fed, a Rates Puzzle Looms (WSJ)
  • What the Superforecasters Say About When the Fed Will Lift Rates (BBG)
  • U.S. Looks at Proposals to Step Up Fight Against Islamic State (WSJ)
  • China Steel Head Says Demand Slumping at Unprecedented Speed (BBG)
  • VW slumps to first quarterly loss in at least 15 years (Reuters)
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Frontrunning: October 27

  • Hilsenrath - The Fed Strives for a Clear Signal on Interest Rates (WSJ)
  • Tentative Budget Deal Reached, Raising Debt Limit (WSJ)
  • China Calls U.S. Challenge Over Island Threat to Regional Peace (BBG)
  • UK economy slows more than expected in third quarter (Reuters)
  • In China’s Alleyways, Underground Banks Move Money (WSJ)
  • Inside the Secretive Circle That Rules a $14 Trillion Market (BBG)
  • A Frustrated Koch Brother Decides It’s Time to ‘Spout Off’ (WSJ)
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