Deutsche Bank

Moody's puts $3 billion in student debt-backed ABS on default watch leading us to wonder when 30% delinquency rates in a market where nearly $1.3 trillion in credit has been extended will finally result in the bursting of what is America's most spectacular debt bubble.

Because the only thing more exciting than betting on the continuation of a margin-fueled, self-feeding domestic mania is betting on the exchange where the maniacs are trading...

Several years ago, Zero Hedge first, and to our knowledge only, reported that when it comes to unofficially executing trades in the equity market the NY Fed - through a slightly more than arms-length arrangement - does so using Chicago HFT powerhouse Citadel. In other words, while Citadel was instrumental in preserving the smooth, diagonal ramp in stocks since 2009 and igniting upward momentum just as everyone else stared to sell when the Markets Group of the NY Fed called, it was also paid handsomely: after all, nobody checks the Fed's broker commission statement. In fact according to some, indirect Fed compensation to what is the world's most leveraged hedge fund has been in the billions over the past decade. Well, now it's payback time, and as the NYT reported overnight, the Brookings Institution favorite blogger, former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, has joined none other than Citadel as an advisor.

Back in November we chronicled the (quiet) death of the Petrodollar, the system that has buttressed USD hegemony for decades by ensuring that oil producers recycled their dollar proceeds into still more USD assets creating a very convenient (if your printing press mints dollars) self-fulfilling prophecy that has effectively underwritten the dollar’s reserve status in the post WWII era. Now, with oil prices still in the doldrums, oil producers are selling off their USD assets in a frenzy threatening the viability of petrocurrency mercantilism and effectively extracting billions in liquidity from the system just as the Fed prepares to hike rates.

March was a record month for CLO issuance with $15.2 billion in deals coming to market, bringing the YTD total to $29 billion and making Q1 2015 the best first quarter in history for CLO new issue volume. And while a JPM analyst who spoke to Bloomberg says managers “want to get deals done early before risk retention kicks in,” we're confident that it’s all about keeping credit flowing to deserving borrowers and not at all about a desire to keep exposure to 5% of a collateral pool littered with loans to “companies that are of lower credit quality or that do not have a third-party evaluation of the likelihood of timely payment of interest and repayment of principal” off of the books.

"We could now be at a crossroads," warns Deutsche Bank in its annual default study report. As the 'artificial bond market' is exposed and yield curves flatten on Fed rate hikes so carry risk-reward is reduced and default cycles have often been linked to the ebbing and flowing of the YC through time with a fairly long lead/lag. With HY defaults having spent 12 of the last 13 years below their long-term average (with the last 5 years the lowest in modern history), "a perfect default storm could be created for 2018 if the Fed raises rates in 2015."

The panic buying by China’s newly-minted, day trader hordes took a breather on Tuesday which we think presents as good an opportunity as any to assess what factors might intervene to derail the self-feeding margin madness that has Shanghai and Hong Kong partying like it’s 1999 on the Nasdaq.

Without the support of the ECB, the country’s banking system would be shut off from international markets and likely collapse.

"In some instances, malfunctioning algorithms have interfered with market functioning, inundating trading venues with message traffic or creating sharp, short-lived spikes in prices as a result of other algorithms responding to the initial erroneous order flow."... "If liquidity is as bad as it is now, what’s going to happen when things really get adverse?” said Richard Schlanger, who co-manages about $30 billion in bonds as vice president at Pioneer Investments in Boston.

Think the market is overvalued? Believe US equities are artificially propped up by corporate buyback plunge protection? Wonder if a complete disconnect between stocks and economic fundamentals portends troubled waters ahead? Well, it will cost you to express your opinion via long puts, because as Bloomberg reports, S&P index downside protection is now the most expensive it's ever been relative to long calls.

"A slow start to the week has become customary, as Monday appears to have become the new Friday," Barclays says, noting that the humans simply aren't trading in a credit market where opportunities are scarce. Meanwhile, the robots do not rest, and on the Monday they simultaneously decide that some random data point or unduly hawkish/dovish soundbite out of an FOMC voter is cause for all the algos to chase down the same rabbit hole sending ripples through a fixed income market devoid of any real liquidity, the humans will be in for a rude awakening when they get to work on Tuesday morning.

We simply don’t see any time in the future that would see Americans start spending again at a rate anywhere near what would be required for an economic recovery. However, that is by no means a generally accepted point of view in the financial press; and so these issues must be addressed time and again until people begin to understand, and quit making the wrong decisions for the wrong reasons. People have a right to know what’s truly happening to their lives, and their societies. And they’re not nearly getting enough of it through the ‘official’ press.

China’s world-beating, margin debt-fueled, equity mania has now made its way to Hong Kong much to the delight of local housewives and security guards who have recently decided to become day traders. Deutsche Bank sees big upside for shares of "Don't worry, don't panic" HKEx amid the madness.

"In my view, every asset allocation team in the world should have this chart hanging on their wall," - Deutsche Bank Chief Economist Torsten Sløk

• Nikkei tops 20,000, Europe hits 15-year high (Reuters)
• GE to sell real estate holdings, sets $50 billion share buyback (Reuters)
• Iran’s Middle Class Plans for Life After a Deal (BBG)
• Walgreens to Close 200 Stores as It Expands Cost Cuts (WSJ)
• Hillary Clinton expected to announce presidential run as soon as this weekend (Reuters)
• It will cost $1.5 billion to keep Deutsche Bank Libor Manipulators out of prison  (USA Today)
• Police Cameras Bring Problems of Their Own (WSJ)
• Obama says concerned China bullying others in South China Sea (Reuters)
• Investors Revive Appetite for Asian Junk Bonds (WSJ)