Deutsche Bank

"We've Never Had A Shock To The System Like This" - Global Selloff Accelerates On Brexit, Italy, "Unknown" Fears

The flight to safety following last week's quarter-end window dressing is accelerating, with constant news and flashing red headlines of record low yields across DM government bonds once the norm, and as of moments ago Denmark's 10Y bonds joined the exclusive club of sub-zero yields; gold has soared to fresh multi-year highs above $1,370, the risk-off currency, the Yen, soaring and sending the USDJPY just above 100, while sterling crashed overnight once again below 1.27, levels not seen since 1985.

Goldman Expects Jump In Mortgage Refis, Blames "Burned Out" Borrowers

Due to the "new lower path for mortgage rates" Goldman is raising their estimate for 2016 MBS Issuance to $1.3 trillion from $1.2 trillion and raising their 2017 MBS issuance estimate to $1.3 trillion from $1.1 trillion. Goldman's  team cut their 10-Yr US TSY estimate to 2% from 2.4% ahead of an expected refinancing blitz.

"China Is Headed For A 1929-Style Depression"

“The government is allowing speculation by providing cheap financing,” Andy Xie exclaimed, China “is riding a tiger and is terrified of a crash. So it keeps pumping cash into the economy. It is difficult to see how China can avoid a crisis.”

Three Former Barclays Traders Convicted Of LIBOR Manipulation

The first bank to admit that it engaged in massive manipulation of the LIBOR rate was Barclays back in 2012, and traders are still being scapegoated tried in court to this day. As Bloomberg reports, five traders learned their fate recently, nearly four years since the bank admitted to the charge. Three traders were convicted, while the jury was unable to reach a verdict on the final two.

ETF Securities Reports Biggest One-Day Gold Inflow Since Financial Crisis

It never ceases to amaze how vastly different the investment styles of gold paper vs physical traders are: while we have documented previously how the latter tend to buy progressively more the lower the price, "investors" in paper-derivatives such as ETFs and ETPs are quite the opposite, where only momentum matters. Once a reflexive buying spree is unleashed, paper buying begets even more paper buying. Nowhere is this more evident than in today's daily report of ETF Securities, where "inflows into gold ETPs of US$263mn on Friday 1st July were at their highest since inception."

This Is "Worrisome": The Probability Of A US Recession Surges To 60%, Deutsche Calculates

"This relentless flattening of the curve is worrisome. Given the historical tendency of a very flat or inverted yield curve to precede a US recession, the odds of the next economic downturn are rising. In our probit model, the probability of a recession within the next 12 months has jumped to 60 percent, the highest it’s been since August 2008."

Are We Living In "A Riskless World", Deutsche Asks

"Who of the big boys of central banking can realistically make a difference here is unclear to us. The Fed was caught wrong-footed in all of this, between domestic news (weak non-farms) to international. The ECB and BOJ are tapped-out; as in, their actions at this point are delivering more harm than benefit (underperforming equity and credit markets, lower credit issuance, substantial pressure on bank equities). In China, authorities are already dealing with the consequences of reopening the credit spigot earlier this year that reinforced concerns of a credit bubble popping there."

World's Most Systemically Dangerous Bank Crashes Back To Record Lows

Despite all the exuberance over the Brexit bounce in US (and UK) equities, never minds bonds, FX, and credit being far less enthusiastic, Deutsche Bank is plunging once again this morning. Having failed The Fed's stress test for the second year running and been diagnosed by The IMF as the world's most systemically dangerous financial entity, the giant Germanbank is getting slammed down almost 4% today, back near record lows as its 'Lehman-esque' path to devastation continues.

IMF Warns Brexit "Uncertainty" Means "Even Lower Growth" For UK, EU

“Brexit has created significant uncertainty and we believe this is likely to dampen growth in the near term, particularly in the U.K. but with repercussions also for Europe and the global economy. Prolonged periods of uncertainty and associated declines in consumer and business confidence would mean even lower growth”