Deutsche Bank

Speculation, derivatives, and the price of food in poor countries

U.S. Department of Justice, Airgas, Alternative Investment Group, American Century, America’s Health Insurance Plans, ApexBrasil, Association for Corporate Growth, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Barclays Services Corporation, BNP Paribas, Capital Research, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Fidelity, Franklin Resources, Freddie Mac, Goldman Sachs, Intel, JP Morgan Chase, Microsoft, National Rural Utilities Cooperative Finance Corporation, NMS Group, Oracle, Pension Real Estate Association, Real Estate Roundtable, Reynolds American, Royal Bank of Scotland, Visa, Wells Fargo, Nomura Holdings America, Laurus Funds, Ripplewood Holdings

While the topic of net Fed capital flows, and implicit balance sheet risk has recently gotten substantial prominence some three years after Zero Hedge first started discussing it, one open question is what happens when we cross the "D-Rate" boundary, or as we defined it, the point at which the Fed's Net Interest Margin becomes negative i.e., when the outflows due to interest payable to reserve banks (from IOER) surpasses the cash inflows from the Fed's low-yielding asset portfolio, and when the remittances to the Treasury cease (or technically become negative). To get the full answer of what happens then, we once again refer readers to the paper released yesterday by Morgan Stanley's Greenlaw and Deutsche Bank's Hooper, which discusses not only the parabolic chart that US debt yield will certainly follow over the next several decades, but the trickier concept known as the Fed's technical insolvency, or that moment when the Fed's tiny capital buffer goes negative. In short what would happen is that the Fed will be then forced to print money just so it can continue to print money.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Lexington Partners; Tudor Investment, Brevan Howard, Goldman Sachs, UBS, Bank of Korea; BNP Paribas, Fidelity Investments, Deutsche Bank,, Freeman and Co., Bank America, National Bureau of Economic Research, FDIC, Interamerican Development Bank; 4 hedge funds, BTG Pactual, Gavea Investimentos; Reserve Bank of Australia, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Einaudi Institute, Bank of Italy; Swiss National Bank; Pension Real Estate Association; Goodwin Proctor, Penn State University, Villanova University, Shroeder’s Investment Management, Premiere, Inc, Muira Global, Bidvest, NRUCF, BTG Asset Management, Futures Industry Association, ACLI, Handelsbanken, National Business Travel Association, Urban Land Institute, Deloitte, CME Group; Barclays Capiital, Treasury Mangement Association, International Monetary Fund; Kairos Investments, Deloitte and Touche, Instituto para el Desarrollo Empreserial de lat Argentina, Handelsbanken, Danske Capital, WIPRO, University of Calgary, Pictet & Cie, Zurich Insurance Company, Central Bank of Chile, and many, many more.

Europe's double dipping economy may be continuing to implode, but at least confidence abounds. And while the conifidence game was the purvey of career politicians and ex-Goldman central bankers in January, it has now shifted to Europe's equivalent of the reflexive UMichigan consumer confidence, after Germany's ZEW investor confidence soared to 48.2 vs expectations of a modest 35.0 print, leaving January's 31.5 print in the dust, and the highest since April 2010. And all of the surge was based on the hope, with none attributed to reality, or current conditions. From SocGen: "The positive mood in both the equity and bond markets since the beginning of the year has led to a strong surge in expectations (economic sentiment) in the ZEW survey, a survey completed among German investors. This surge was entirely driven by expectations while current activity remains muted. Expectations in most surveys have recently been rising more strongly than expected, but at one point we expect some moderation. We consider that Germany and the euro area are in a situation of readjusting expectations and activity from the weakness at end-2012. The recovery in expectations may already have overshoot if hard data disappoint in the coming weeks." And while Europe is starry-eyed with hope about the future, as it is in the beginning of every year, it blithely ignored the fact that new car registrations collapsed in January by 14.2% to a new record low, while construction output in the Euroarea declined for a second month in December, tumbling by 4.8% led by slumping activity in, wait for it, Germany. But this time the future will be different.

And by "you", we mean of course the average American worker, who according to the Census Bureau averaged a full-time income of $4,400 per month, and whose plight has been documented extensively as making less and less on an inflation-adjusted basis every year, having an ever older average age, putting off retirement indefinitely, and whose lifestyle continues to deteriorate in line with the progressive elimination of the US middle class. But for every million or so disenfranchised workers, there are a few hundred lucky ones, in this particular case interns who work at companies that pay better than the average American worker. So if you are tired of making next to minimum wage, here is your chance to start afresh as an intern with zero experience at one of these 25 companies, while probably making more than the current jobs pays.

With the US closed today, the Shanghai Composite red after a week of partying not helped by news from China’s Ministry of Commerce showed that spending during the week-long Lunar New Year break grew at the slowest pace since 2009, and the Nikkei merely a tick-for-tick proxy of whatever the USDJPY does which in turn is a mood indicator for how any given G-7/20 statement is interpreted, the only relevant news in today's thinly traded market would come from Europe, where the EUR is once again modestly higher in overnight trading, even as Spain and Italy bonds are selling off.

if Europe were a single house, it would be rotten to its core with termites and mold. It should have been condemned years ago, but the one thing that has kept it “on the market” was the fact that its owners were all very powerful, connected individual. We are now finding out that the owners not only knew that the home should have been condemned but were in fact getting rich via insider deals while those who lived in the house were in grave danger. 

While everyone is very familiar, and at times hypnotized, with the plain vanilla equity chart of stock prices which at least in the US are near all time highs, and where the small-cup Russell 2000 - long the object of Bernanke's affection - is already at never before seen levels, one chart virtually nobody has seen, perhaps the most important chart for the global capital markets right now, is the following from Goldman, which shows that while outright market cap for the G7 countries (ex basket case Japan) is near all time highs courtesy of the $15 trillion in liquidity pumped by central banks, the ratio of equity market cap to the outstanding value of debt securities underlying this equity is near all time lows!

At Deutsche Bank, the job title “risk manager” might be more appropriately characterized as “campaign manager.” That is, Deutsche Bank is no more concerned with the active mitigation of risk than the unscrupulous politician is with actively avoiding extra marital affairs. Like campaign mangers then, risk managers at Deutsche Bank must accept the fact that occasionally (or perhaps quite often) messes will be made and spin campaigns will need to be devised and deployed in order to keep public opinion from turning sour and in order to keep the few regulators who aren’t on the payroll

There was some hope that Greece, which for the past few months was desperately trying to show it has a primary surplus when in fact it was merely shoving unpaid bills under the rug, was at least getting its runaway deficit situation under control. This, despite what many sensible people pointed out was the return of nearly daily strikes, which meant zero government revenue as zero taxes could be levied on zero wages. Turns out the sensible people were again right, and the Greek and European propaganda machine has failed once more as the Greek Finance Ministry just reported that despite big tax hikes demanded as part of austerity measures by international lenders, tax revenues fell precipitously in January, with the Greek Finance Ministry reporting a 16 percent decrease from a year earlier, and a loss of 775 million euros, or $1.05 billion in one month. It is all downhill from here as the feedback loop of more spending cuts is activated to offset declining revenues, leading to even less revenue, and culminating with the complete collapse of Greek society.

Press conference from hell, slugfest about corruption, even in Germany

Deutsche Bank co-CEO: “In this uncertain world, I cannot exclude anything."

• 'London Whale' Sounded an Alarm on Risky Bets (WSJ)
• Deadly Blast Strikes U.S. Embassy in Turkey (WSJ)
• Abe Shortens List for BOJ Chief as Japan Faces Monetary Overhaul (BBG)
• Endowment Returns Fail to Keep Pace with College Spending (BBG) - More student loans
• Mexico rescue workers search for survivors after Pemex blast kills 25 (Reuters)
• Lingering Bad Debts Stifle Europe Recovery (WSJ)
• Peregrine Founder Hit With 50 Years (WSJ) - there is hope Corzine will get pardoned yet
• Deutsche Bank to Limit Immediate Bonuses to 300,000 Euros
• France's Hollande to visit Mali Saturday (Reuters)
• France, Africa face tough Sahara phase of Mali war (Reuters)
• Barclays CEO refuses bonus (Barclays)
• Edward Koch, Brash New York Mayor During 1980s Boom, Dies at 88 (BBG)
• Samsung Doubles Tablet PC Market Share Amid Apple’s Lead (BBG)

• Risky Student Debt Is Starting to Sour (WSJ)
• Political scandal in Spain as PP secret accounts revealed (El Pais)
• New York Times claims Chinese hackers hijacked its systems (NYT)
• Spain's Rajoy, ruling party deny secret payment scheme (Reuters)
• Iran crude oil exports rise to highest since EU sanctions (Reuters)
• BlackBerry 10’s Debut Fizzles as U.S. Buyers Left Waiting (BBG)
• Costs drag Deutsche Bank to €2.2bn loss  (FT)
• And the gaming of RWA continues - Deutsche Bank Beats Capital Goal as Jain Shrugs Off Loss (BBG)
• More fun out of London - Barclays, RBS May Pay Billions Over Improper Derivatives Sales (BBG)
• Hagel to face grilling by Senate panel on Mideast, budget (Reuters)