Deutsche Bank

Government Shutdown Odds Are Rising, Goldman Warns

"A shutdown would send  another signal to markets that Republicans may not be able to enact their agenda, lowering expectations for tax reform and an infrastructure program. We believe Congress is more likely to meet the deadline, but see a one in three chance of a shutdown."

From "Dissensus" To "Democrazy": A Warning From Deutsche Bank

As anger and resentment continues to pile up after the recent "populist" disappointments, just how will the massed millions express their frustrations and anger with a system which is more broken - both politically and economically - by the day? Unfortunately, the all too obvious answer is most likely the correct one.

Stocks Swing As Latest Truck Terrorist Spooks Markets

First down after the Syrian air strikes, then up (within minutes after the open) despite a poor jobs number, then down once more on the latest "Truck Terroist", now going back up again, stocks can't make up their mind this morning what to do.

Frontrunning: April 7

  • U.S. fires missiles at Assad airbase; Russia denounces 'aggression' (Reuters)
  • Congress Supports the Airstrikes, Debates What Happens Next (WSJ)
  • Trump’s Syria Strike Sends Not-So-Subtle Warning to U.S. Rivals (BBG)
  • Russia Halts Cooperation With U.S. on Syrian Air Operations (WSJ)
  • Syria Says Strike Kills Five, Damages Air Base (WSJ)

Frontrunning: April 6

  • Senate Set to Vote to Eliminate Supreme Court Filibuster (WSJ)
  • Trump’s Xi Summit Tests Promises on Trade, North Korea  (BBG)
  • Is North Korea putting a nuclear-tipped bargaining chip on the table? (Reuters)
  • Why Xi Jinping Must Tread Carefully When He Meets Trump  (BBG)
  • China Market Access in Spotlight as Meeting Nears  (BBG)
  • Trump Rethinks Foreign Policy After Syria, North Korea Crises (WSJ)

Frontrunning: April 5

  • No big bets ahead of Trump-Xi meeting; oil, metal prices firm (Reuters)
  • Senate on the Brink of ‘Nuclear Option’ in Gorsuch Vote (WSJ)
  • Le Pen Ambushed on Euro in French Debate (BBG)
  • Trump touts coal but utilities aren't listening (Reuters)
  • Trump Officials Alarmed China May Bid for Westinghouse Unit (BBG)

China Surge, Rising Oil Push Global Stocks Higher; S&P Futures Flat As Fed Minutes Loom

European stocks rebounded after a downbeat start, aided by a return to the post-Euro open momentum ignition in the USDJPY while Asian stocks rose after China shares surged 1.5%, the most since August. For now S&P futures are fractionally in the red, although we expect them to turn progressively higher as US traders get to their desks to frontrun the now traditional "post open" ramp.

Futures Slide As Weak Start To Q2 Continues Amid Global Growth, Political Jitters

Global stocks were pressured by a poor start to the second quarter in the US, where carmakers reported disappointing sales data, slamming auto stocks around the globe. The selling has persisted for a second day, with Asian stocks, S&P futures fall and European shares all partially in the red today after their biggest decline in two weeks.

Global Stocks, US Futures Rise On First Day Of Q2 As Trump-Xi Meeting Looms

After the best quarter for US stocks since 2015, global equities have started off Q2 on the right foot, despite caution about the upcoming meeting between President Trump and China's Xi Jinping later this week, and Fed Minutes which are expected to be more hawkish than the FOMC statement.

Who Wants What In Washington? The One Chart Summary

For all those confused about the give and take in Washington, , here is a table which conveniently summarizes how the different groups within the White House, House and Senate align on key issues.

LIBOR Pains

LIBOR is a benchmark reference rate (which explains why some banks were so eager to manipulate it). The pricing of all kinds of floating-rate debt is tied to it (corporate loans, mortgages, student loans, credit card debt, and assorted derivatives, such as currency and interest rate swaps, etc.). That has now become a problem.

China Manufacturing PMI Jumps To Five Year High

China's reflation story (on the back of a record amount of debt created last year) was put on display on Friday morning when both the Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI rose more than expected, with the Manufacturing PMI rising to a level not seen since April 2012.