Deutsche Bank

Frontrunning: October 6

  • Millions flee as Southeast U.S. braces for Hurricane Matthew (Reuters)
  • Hurricane Matthew Is a $15 Billion Threat Headed to Florida (BBG)
  • Three Risks to the Global Financial System as Debt Hits Record Levels (WSJ)
  • Deutsche Bank’s $14 Billion Scare (BBG)
  • Deutsche Bank Mismarked 37 Deals Like Paschi’s, Audit Says (BBG)
  • Monte Paschi Said to Plan Debt-Swap Deadline Before Italian Poll (BBG)

US Futures Pressured By European Weakness; Oil Flat, Dollar Rises

For the fourth day in a row, US traders arrive at their desks with US equity futures largely rangebound if with a modestly heavy bias, pressured by some recent weakness in European stocks, where DB continues to post modest gains following yesterday's report that Germany is pursuing "discrete talks" over the fate of the German lender. Oil has regained earlier losses following comments by Algeria's oil minister who said that OPEC could cut 1% more than agreed upon while sterling continues to slide on growing concerns of a "hard Brexit."

The New 'Too Big To Fail' - EU Proposes Taxpayer-Funded Derivatives System Bailout

It would appear the powers-that-be have just stumbled on to the ugly fact that all the bailed-in depositor money in the world won't stop the novated, rehypothecated, collateral chain collapse contagion that Deutsche Bank's $40 trillion-plus derivatives book's damocles sword hangs over the status quo. However, being the problem-solving types, the European technocrats have a 'fair-share' solution - back a derivative clearing-house with taxpayer money to solve the new too-biggest-to-fail problem "that no one saw coming."

The Noose Is Tightening Quickly On The Global Economy

At bottom, it is not central bank stimulus and intervention alone that drives equities and bond markets; it is the naive faith and willful ignorance of average market participants.  There is a problem with this kind of economic model, however.  Reality is never kept in check indefinitely.  Fiscal truths will be exposed, one way or another.

Preparing For A Resurgence Of Globalism

When the Brexit vote occurred, we suggested a dialogue would be created in mainstream media painting populism as responsible for numerous economic political and military difficulties. Gradually, globalism would be suggested as the remedy for populism. That process has begun and the IMF/World bank meetings are leading the way...

Banks With $12 Trillion In Assets Threatened By Persistent "Shocks", IMF Finds

The global economic recovery would still leave about a quarter of banks in developed countries too weak to support further growth and susceptible to future shocks. This means that banks controlling about $12 trillion of assets would remain vulnerable during a rosy economic environment marked by faster economic activity, rising interest rates and declining defaults

Frontrunning: October 5

  • ECB 'taper' talk hits stocks, sterling hits 31-year low (Reuters)
  • Crude Rises to Three-Month High After U.S. Stockpiles Plunge (BBG)
  • Gross Says He Shortened Duration on Europe After Taper News (BBG)
  • Chicago Fed's Evans 'fine' with December hike if data stays firm (Reuters)
  • Euro zone business growth at 21-month low in September (Reuters)
  • Deutsche Bank Brings Too-Big-to-Fail Quandary Home to Merkel (BBG)

Gundlach: "Deutsche Bank Will Be Bailed Out But What About Credit Suisse"

While Germany's largest lender would ultimately be rescued by the German government if needed, other banks in the region wouldn’t be able to count on such support, Gundlach said. “Deutsche Bank will be supported by Germany if push comes to shove, but what about Credit Suisse, which has shown a similar decline in stock price? Who’s there to bail them out?”