• Pivotfarm
    05/26/2015 - 16:54
    We have fast-paced lives, we pay to get fast-tracked, we eat fast-food and we fast-forward on a film that bores us. Our lives are fast. We even have fast fashion; our clothes are fast these days from...

Deutsche Bank

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Asia Superbubble Unstoppable: Hong Kong Up 10% In Past Week; Soaring Dollar Pushes Euro Back Under 1.06





Overnight market news was once again driven by the Asian superbubble, where as expected, the Hang Seng (+1.22%) soared once more and is now up 9.5% for the week, following news the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd (HKEx) expects it will "substantially increase" quotas for the stock connect program between Hong Kong and Shanghai, HKEx Chief Executive Charles Li said on Friday. The exchange could boost the current quotas, which cap how much mainland investors can buy Hong Kong stocks and vice versa under the trading link, by more than 20 or 30 percent, Li said at a media briefing in Hong Kong. Li did not give a precise date for when the quotas would be raised, but one thing is clear: everyone in China, and Hong Kong, must be all in stocks if the Chinese housing bubble can not be reflated. The Shanghai Comp closed higher by almost 2.0% following better than expected Chinese inflation data, while HK stocks continued their recent rally to closer higher by 9.5% for the week.

 
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Teachers Warn Of "Victorian" Poverty As Socks In Short Supply And Stocks At All-Time Highs





"Children in 2015 should not be hungry and coming to school with no socks on and no coats - some children are living in Victorian conditions - in the inner cities," a UK teacher tells BBC. With the FTSE near all-time highs, we suspect this is yet another example of how the deliberate inflation of financial assets works to eradicate the middle class.

 
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Running Out Of Accounting Gimmicks: EPS Addbacks Surge Most Since Lehman





The amount of non-GAAP addbacks boosting the S&P "earnings" to their latest quarterly high has never been greater. In fact, the last time the absolutely notional value of pro-forma addbacks was anywhere near this close was in the Lehman "kitchen sink" quarter, when companies took advantage of the biggest bailout in capitalist history, to square their fudged income statement and balance sheet with accounting reality, resulting in an addback that was greater than the actual GAAP print!

 
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Subprime Nation: Risky Loans Are In The "Driver's" Seat





Auto ABS has "dominated" new consumer issuance YTD and $7 billion in new subprime supply suggests buyers are generally oblivious to worsening credit profiles. Is this a good time to pledge a devaluing asset to buy an overvalued asset?

 
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Ahoy! Oil Tankers Form Four-Mile Line In Persian Gulf As Iran Talks Stoke Supply Glut Fears





As the market ponders how quickly an Iran nuclear deal and subsequent lifting of sanctions will affect crude prices, record production in Iraq leaves 5% of the world's tanker fleet parked in the Persian Gulf.

 
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Bad News Is Good: Companies Issuing Positive Guidance Lowest Since 2006





For Q1 2015, only 16 companies issued positive EPS guidance, the lowest count in nearly a decade and not only do investors seemingly not care, they have, in their infinite wisdom, bid up shares by nearly 2%!

 
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Goodbye FICO, Hello FAKE-O: Behold The Banks' Brilliant "Plan" To Lend To Deadbeats





When gaming the old score wasn't sufficient to expand the pool of elligible borrowers, creativity was necessary. The result: an entirely new score is born...

 
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Frontrunning: April 1





  • Oil holds around $55 as Iran nuclear talks drag on (Reuters)
  • Bob Diamond’s African Banking Venture Runs Into Problems (WSJ)
  • Iran Nuclear Talks Resume With Lavrov Saying Deal at Hand (BBG)
  • Wal-Mart Ratchets Up Pressure on Suppliers to Cut Prices (WSJ)
  • Renegades of Junk: The Rise and Fall of the Drexel Empire (BBG)
  • Explosion at Yemen factory kills at least 25: residents, medics (Reuters)
  • Macerich Rejects Simon Property’s $16.8 Billion Takeover Bid (WSJ)
  • Reckoning Arrives for Cash-Strapped Oil Firms Amid Bank Squeeze (BBG)
 
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Housing Contribution To US GDP Lowest In Post-War Era





"The contribution of housing to US GDP continues to run at some of the lowest levels since the end of World War II. New construction of single- and multi-family homes, renovations, broker fees and the like still only make up a bit more than 3% of current GDP, well below the post-war average of 4.7%. Not only has the level of lift from housing come in low, but it has bounced out of the last official recession slowly, too," Deutsche Bank says.

 
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China Hard Landing: Blame The Smog





Bloomberg estimates industrial output may have to be slashed by a fifth in order for Beijing to hit its own pollution targets and by up to 40% if China wants its citizens to be able to breathe the same air as the rest of the world.

 
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Frontrunning: March 26





  • Saudi Arabia, allies launch air strikes in Yemen against Houthi fighters (Reuters)
  • Pilot on Crashed Jet Was Locked Out of Cockpit, NY Times Says (BBG)
  • Why Bombing This Tiny Oil Producer Is Roiling the Energy Market (BBG)
  • U.S.-led coalition, Iraqis pound Islamic State in Tikrit (Reuters)
  • Munger Says Prepare for Harder World as Buying Power Slides (BBG),Mocks Greek ‘Idiotic Idea’ You Can Vote Yourself Rich (BBG)
  • The Central Banker Who Saved the Russian Economy From the Abyss (BBG)
  • Bank of Canada says foreign buyers complicate housing market (Reuters)
  • Investors Scoop Up Companies’ Bonds (WSJ)
  • Espirito Santo Probe Turns Mariana Mortagua Into Portuguese Star (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: March 24





  • Germanwings Airbus crashes in France, 148 feared dead (Reuters)
  • Greece promises list of reforms by Monday to unlock cash (Reuters)
  • Merkel Points Tsipras Toward Deal With Greece’s Creditors (BBG)
  • Banks Shift Bond Portfolios -Move to ‘held to maturity’ category aims to guard against rising rates, shield capital  (WSJ)
  • Beijing to Shut All Major Coal Power Plants to Cut Pollution (BBG)
  • As Silence Falls on Chicago Trading Pits, a Working-Class Portal Also Closes (NYT)
  • Oil below $56 as Saudi output near record, China activity slows (Reuters)
 
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