Deutsche Bank

Frontrunning: January 3

  • Stocks Gain With Commodities Amid China Optimism (BBG); Dollar, global stocks firm as 2017 trading starts in earnest (Reuters)
  • Oil hits 18-month highs as markets eye output cuts (Reuters)
  • Earnings Recovery Set to Propel Stocks Higher in 2017 (WSJ)
  • Republican-led Congress lays groundwork for Trump (Reuters)
  • Battles Await Ambitious GOP Agenda, Including Repeal of ACA (WSJ)
  • 2017 Will Be the Riskiest Year for Geopolitics Since WWII, Eurasia Group Says (BBG)

A Biased 2017 Forecast, Part 2

"Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance."

Kunstler: 2017 Is When The Wheels Finally Come Off

The American people have been punked by their own government and their central bank, the Federal Reserve, for years and the jig is now up. In 2017 both will lose their authority and legitimacy, a very grave matter for the survival of this republic.

Frontrunning: December 27

  • Monte dei Paschi Rescue Cost Jumps as Deposits Fall (WSJ)
  • Russia finds first black box from Black Sea crash jet (Reuters)
  • Prat-Gay Fired as Argentine Finance Minister After One Year (BBG)
  • Fear of Trump Triggers Deep Spending Cuts by Nation's Second Largest Union (BBG)
  • Xi’s Power Play Foreshadows Change in How China Is Ruled (WSJ)

The Scariest Forecast For Treasury Bulls

Assuming Deutsche Bank is correct, the result would be the scariest forecast bond bulls have seen in years: a 10-Year TSY whose yield fades all gains attained during the past decade, in the span of just two short years, hitting 4.5% in early 2019. The adverse implications from such a fast, steep move on all asset classes, not just bonds, would be devastating.

Dave Collum's 2016 Year In Review - "And Then Things Got Really Weird..."

"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."

Frontrunning: December 23

  • Berlin market attack suspect killed in Italy (Reuters)
  • Tunisian Suspect Had a History of Criminal Activity, Extremism (WSJ)
  • Hijacked Libyan plane lands in Malta with 118 on board (Reuters)
  • Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse Settle U.S. Probes as Barclays Sued (BBG)
  • Italy Sets Up Fund to Help Troubled Banks (WSJ)

Futures Unchanged In Thin Pre-Holiday Tape; Italian Bank Bailout Lifts European Shares

European stocks halted two days of declines, with the Stoxx 600 fractionally in the green and Italy’s bonds climbing after Monte Paschi requested a bailout and Italy pledged to provide support for its other ailing lenders. S&P futures were little changed among extremely thin volumes while Chinese stocks dropped amid concerns on higher borrowing costs.

Credit Suisse Settles With DOJ For $5.3 Billion; Will Pay $2.5 Billion Civil Penalty

Credit Suisse agreed to pay $5.28 billion to resolve a U.S. investigation into its business in mortgage-backed securities as officials work through a backlog of crisis-era bank cases. The Swiss lender will pay a $2.48 billion civil penalty and $2.8 billion in relief for homeowners and communities hit by the collapse in home prices, it said in a statement Friday.

Deutsche Bank Settles With DOJ: Will Pay $3.1 Billion Civil Penalty

With analyst expectations/hopes in the $2 to $5 billion range (against the initial $14 billion fine), Deutsche Bank said it has reached settlement with US authorities to pay a $3.1 billion civil penalty (and provide $4.1bn in releief to consumers). Removing considerable uncertainty about Deutsche's capital position, one wonders how much this remarkably low-ball settlement had to do with Donald Trump's current loan re-negotiations with the "world's most systemically dangerous bank."

In Rare Move, US Sues Barclays For Mortgage Securities Fraud

The market was waiting for the DOJ to announce the long-awaited settlement with Deutsche Bank today. Instead, it got news of a surprise lawsuit filed by the DOJ which sued Barclays after failing to settle a long-running probe into the UK bank's involvement in pre-crisis mortgage fraud.