Deutsche Bank

Don’t Sweat The Election. The Next Crisis Is Already Baked Into The Cake

From here on out politics are only relevant at the extremes - major war, corruption scandal, martial law etc. Short of that, the fiat currency/fractional reserve banking world has such institutional momentum that it really won’t matter whether Trump is picking on bankers and building his wall or Clinton is protecting Wall Street and raising taxes. Debt will keep soaring as it has under every president since Reagan and jobs will disappear as machines replace people, thus bringing the end of the current system inexorably closer.

Frontrunning: October 31

  • FBI in Internal Feud Over Clinton Probe (WSJ)
  • As Clinton struggles, Trump tries to raise doubts (Reuters)
  • Dollar shakes off Clinton FBI scare, global stocks stay spooked (Reuters)
  • Mark Carney stands ready to serve 8-year term at Bank of England (FT)
  • Clinton Team Questions FBI Director’s Motive (WSJ)
  • OPEC Splits Prevent Deal With Other Producers to Curb Supply (BBG)

Market Trapped As Recession Risk Rises

With the ongoing political circus, weak corporate earnings (considering the massive reductions in expectations since the beginning of the year), Apple and Amazon both missing expectations (which really goes to the heart of the consumer), and consumer sentiment waning, it is surprising the markets are still holding up as well as they are. As long as the markets can maintain support about 2125, the bull market is still in play, but at this point, not by much.

The Coming Bond Market Crash - An Interview With Eric Hadik

"I believe 2017--2021 will represent the end and reversal of that multi-decade trend - as the debt bubble bursts and bond markets begin to crash... Each phase was a desperate battle between centralized, governmental control of currency versus universal, hard-asset based currency. And each phase saw the acceleration and intensification of that battle take hold in the ‘7’ year."

Moody's Warns Deutsche Bank Is Dangerously Close To Falling Below Its "Default Point"

Moody’s Capital Markets Research issued a damning verdict on Deutsche Bank earlier this week. In a research report put together by the credit agency’s ‘Analytics’ research division, Moody’s analysts write that Deutsche Bank expected default frequency remains at one of the highest levels in the banking industry, despite the bank’s efforts to shore up its capital position.

Bank Jog: Deutsche Bank's Demand Deposits Tumble By 13% In Q3

In an under reported but troubling development, Deutsche Bank said that its most liquid, "sight deposit" category, plunged by a whopping 13% from Q2 to Q3, sliding from €156.2 billion to €135.9 billion as of Sept. 30. Is this the start of the infamous "bank jog"?

Frontrunning: October 27

  • Clinton Foundation’s Fundraisers Pressed Donors to Steer Business to Former President (WSJ)
  • Democrats ask judge to sanction Republicans over Trump (Reuters)
  • Inside the Trump Bunker, With 12 Days to Go (BBG)
  • U.K. Growth Shows an Economy Resilient to Brexit (BBG)
  • Qualcomm to buy NXP Semiconductors for about $47 billion including debt (Reuters)

Deutsche Bank Reports Unexpected Q3 Profit, But Wall Street Yawns Asking For More

After serving much drama to its shareholders - and global markets - over the past couple of months, when its stock tumbled to all time lows, Deutsche Bank provided some relief when earlier this morning it reported a modest, unexpected profit of €256 million for the third quarter on lower litigation and restructuring costs, beating consensus estimate. However, to many on Wall Street, this wasn't enough.

Bank of England Asks UK Banks To Detail Their Exposure To Deutsche And Italian Banks

In what may or may not be a coincidence, just hours after Bloomberg reported that DB launched a probe into whether it "misstated" derivatives, moments ago the FT reported that the Bank of England is seeking details from large British banks on their current exposure to Deutsche Bank and some of the biggest Italian banks, including Monte dei Paschi, "amid mounting market jitters over the health of Europe’s financial sector."

Deutsche Bank Probing "Misstated" Derivative Valuations After Finding "Divergences"

Deutsche Bank is probing whether it misstated the value of derivatives in its interest-rate trading business, and is sharing its findings with U.S. authorities. The reason for the probe is that, as has been a recurring case with many of its peers of the last few years, the bank found valuations that "diverged from internal models" at which point it began questioning traders.