With the market basking in glow of good earnings results yesterday, mostly out of IBM, and to a lesser extent GOOG, which missed on the top line but beat on EPS squeezing some recent inbound shorts, S&P500 futures have yet to post a solid move to the upside. Perhaps a big reason for this is the recent recoupling of risk based on not one but two carry signals: the first is the well-known EURUSD pair, while the second is the recent entrant, the USDJPY, and it is the latter that continues to see a cover of the massive short interest accumulated over the recent 1000 pip move higher on what upon ongoing reflection has been a disappointing announcement out of the BOJ. Needless to say, the Nikkei whose recent surge higher was all due to currency weakness has tumbled overnight despite corporate fundamentals, if not economic data, which continues to post substantially subpar prints.
- Geithner allegations beg Fed reform (Reuters)
- BOJ Adopts Abe’s 2% Target in Commitment to End Deflation (BBG)
- Bundesbank Head Cautions Japan (WSJ)
- In speech, Obama pushes activist government and takes on far right (Reuters)
- Atari’s U.S. Operations File for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy (BBG)
- Israel goes to polls, set to re-elect Netanyahu (Reuters)
- Apple May Face First Profit Drop in Decade as IPhone Slows (BBG)
- EU states get blessing for financial trading tax (Reuters)
- Indian Jeweler Becomes Billionaire as Gold Price Surges (BBG)
- Europe Stocks Fall; Deutsche Bank Drops on Bafin Request (BBG)
- Algeria vows to fight Qaeda after 38 workers killed (Reuters)
- GS Yuasa Searched After Boeing 787s Are Grounded (BBG)
- Slumping pigment demand eats into DuPont's profit (Reuters)
The two month wait is over and the most overtelegraphed central bank news since November 2012 finally hit the tape when the BOJ announced last night what everyone knew, namely that it would proceed with open-(y)ended asset purchases and a variety of economic targets, key of which was 2% inflation. However, the response so far has been one of certainly selling the pent up news, especially since as was further detailed, the BOJ will do virtually nothing for 12 months, except to increase the size of its existing QE (is the current episode QE 10 or 11?) by another €10 trillion for the Bills component. The USDJPY dropped as much as 170 pips lower than its overnight kneejerk highs hit just after the news.
In what is a surprising warning shot for Merkel's popularity ahead of the September general election in Germany, moments ago the CDU/FDP ruling coalition lost the vote in Lower Saxony to the center-left Social Democratic Party/Greens block by a last minute, one-seat win according to Reuters. The SPD and Greens won a combined 46.3 percent against 45.9 percent for the centre-right, with the FDP defying predictions they would fail to win a seat and scoring 9.9 percent - twice what they had been forecast to get, however the boost coming as a result of a CDU ballot-splitting strategy that may have now backfired.
- White House delays 2014 budget after "fiscal cliff" standoff (Reuters) - And Senate will pass this... never?
- Amari Signals Limits to Abe’s Campaign to Weaken Yen (BBG)
- Draghi’s Bond Rally Masks Debt Doom Loop Trapping Spain (BBG)
- Obama backs gun limits, concedes tough fight ahead (AP)
- Bernanke to Weigh QE Costs as Fed Assets Approach Record (BBG)
- Japan to Sell Debt Worth 7.8 Trillion Yen to Pay for Stimulus (BBG)
- France more than doubles forces in Mali (FT) and yet...
- Malian Rebels Take Town and Vow to Avenge French Attack (NYT)
- China’s Li Calls for Patience as Government Works to Reduce Smog (BBG)
- EU berates China over steel subsidies (BBG)
- Number of working poor families grows as wealth gap widens (Reuters)
Because in a world in which markets no longer are affected by fundamentals, and reflect nothing more than what politicians (and their Wall Street lobbies) believe the "fair value" of risk assets should be, it is likely that any fat-tail events will emerge not out of the markets, but out of politics (and perhaps out of central banks, although it is a safe bet that the world's central planners will merely do much more of the same). The chart below summarizes the geopolitical hotspots of the coming 12 months, which together with everything else are no longer reflected in asset prices courtesy of the central banks completely destroying the market's discounting function.
- Guess who doesn't believe in the "great rotation out of bonds and into stocks": Abe Aids Bernanke as Japan Seen Buying Foreign Debt (BBG)
- AIG Sues Federal Reserve Vehicle in Dispute Over Lawsuit Rights (WSJ)
- JPMorgan Said to Weigh Disclosing Whale Report Faulting Dimon (BBG)
- Ugly Choices Loom Over Debt Clash (WSJ)
- Credit Suisse to cut bonus pool by 20 percent (Reuters)
- Brazilian Bikini Waxes Make Crab Lice Endangered Species (BBG)
- EU redrafts plan for bank rescue funding (FT)
- JCPenney stock plunges after bad holiday (NY Post)
- Regulator Comments Buoy Shanghai Stocks (WSJ)
- Japan voters back PM Abe's efforts to spur growth, beat deflation (Reuters)
- Cameron averts row over Europe speech (FT)
- Swatch Buys Harry Winston Jewelry Brand for $1 Billion (BBG)
As China's major trading partners try to control rising public pension and health care costs, they may not realize they also have an important stake in China's ongoing struggle to fashion a safety net for its own rapidly aging population. Many observers assume China has no pensions or healthcare insurance for the 185 million people over the age of 60 (13.7% of population), the highest official retirement age for most workers. They may well believe this explains why Chinese families save so much–more than 30% of household income–and therefore spend less on consumer goods, including imports from trading partners.
At the height of the financial crisis in 2008, Deutsche Bank made some extraordinarily large bets. As the WSJ reports, documents uncovered from the Libor rate manipulation investigation show huge outsized bets that would swing EUR68 million on a 1bps shift in the Libor rate that they have since been charged with manipulating. Sure enough, with regards the risk (which was large enough to be brought to management's attention), officials "dismissed those concerns because the bank could influence the rates they were betting on."
- Obama Picking Lew for Treasury Fuels Fight on Budget (BBG)
- Deutsche Bank Bank Made Huge Bet, and Profit, on Libor (WSJ)
- Spain Beats Maximum Target in First 2013 Debt Sale (BBG) - In other news, the social security fund is now running on negative?
- "Icahn is also believed to have taken a long position in Herbalife" (NYPost) - HLF +5% premarket
- Lew-for-Geithner Switch Closes Era of Tight Fed-Treasury Ties (BBG)
- Turkey Beating Norway as Biggest Regional Oil Driller (BBG)
- Greek State Firms are Facing Closure (WSJ)
- Draghi Spared as Confidence Swing Quells Rate-Cut Talk (BBG)
- China’s Yuan Loans Trail Estimates (BBG)
- SEC enforcement chief steps down (WSJ)
- CFPB releases new mortgage rules in bid to reduce risky lending (WaPo)
- Japan Bond Investors Expect Extra Sales From February (BBG)
AIG Has Every Right & Responsibility To Sue The US For Excessive Interest Payments On It's Bailout! That's Right, I Said It!!!Submitted by Reggie Middleton on 01/09/2013 11:28 -0400
AIG shareholders aren't just paying interest on its own bailout, they are paying (paid) hefty interest charges on the bailout of the most connected entity in the history of finance, the VAMPIRE SQUID, Goldman Sachs!
- A Bold Dissenter at the Fed, Hoping His Doubts Are Wrong (NYT)
- China and Japan step up drone race as tension builds over disputed islands (Guardian)
- How Mario Draghi is reshaping Europe's central bank (Reuters)
- Merkel Economy Shows Neglect as Sick Man Concern Returns (BBG)
- US oil imports to fall to 25-year low (FT)
- China Loan Share at Record Low Shows Financing Risks (BBG)
- Dimon Says Some JPMorgan Execs ‘Acted Like Children’ on Loss (BBG) - children that reveleased who 'excess reserves' are truly used
- Fed injects new sell-off risk into Treasuries (FT) - really? So the Fed will stop monetizing the US deficit some time soon?
- Obama aide presses Republicans to accept more tax revenues (Reuters)
- Ex-SAC analyst named 20 alleged insider traders (FT)
- BOJ easing bets help dollar regain ground vs yen (Reuters)
- Goldman Sachs Said to Be Part of Fed-Led Foreclosure Settlement (BBG)
- Venezuela postpones inauguration for cancer-stricken Chavez (Reuters)
Equity markets recovered from a lower open following press reports overnight by eKathimerini that the country’s main banks are considering requesting additional funds for their recapitalization and edged higher throughout the session after sources at Hellenic Financial Stability Fund said that there no indications that Greek banks need more recap funds. In addition to that, Xinhua reported that chance of China RRR cut is increasing for January, citing industry insiders for RRR cut forecast. This follows on from the reports in ChinaDaily last week, which suggested that a small interest rate cut at the right time could substantially decrease financing costs and improve expectations for profitability, citing researchers from the China Development Bank, the State Information Center and the Shanghai Securities News who have worked together to forecast key economic indicators and policies in 2013. The risk sentiment was also supported by well subscribed debt auctions from the Netherlands, Austria, Greece and Belgium. As a result, peripheral bond yield spreads are tighter by around 5bps in 10s. Going forward, market participants will get to digest the latest NFIB, IBD/TIPP and Consumer Credit reports. The Fed is due to conduct Treasury op targeting Oct'18-Dec'19 (USD 3.00-3.75bln) and the US Treasury is also set to auction USD 32bln in 3y notes.
- London Quantitative Hedge Funds Report Second Year of Losses (BBG)
- Berlusconi Forms Alliance in Comeback Bid (WSJ)
- Japan to Buy ESM Bonds Using FX Reserves to Help Weaken Yen (BBG)
- Japan Mulling BOJ Accord Linked to Employment, Mainichi Says (BBG)
- Samsung Expects Record Operating Profit (WSJ)
- Boeing 787 Dreamliner Fire Probed, Blaze Adds to Setbacks (BBG)
- BOJ's Shirai: Open to Firmer Inflation Target (WSJ)
- HSBC N.J. Client Admits Conspiracy in Offshore Tax Case (BBG)
- Lampert to Assume CEO Role at Sears (WSJ)
- Abe prepares fresh stimulus measures (FT)
- U.S. Set for Biggest State-Local Jobs Boost Since 2007 (BBG)
- Pakistan Seen Needing IMF Bailout as Rupee Drops Before Vote (BBG)
- Secret and Lies of the Bailout (Rolling Stone)
- Banks Win 4-Year Delay as Basel Liquidity Rule Loosened (BBG)
- Hedge Funds Squeezed With Shorts Beating S&P 500 (BBG)
- Bankruptcy regime for nations urged (FT)
- Is the Fed Doing Enough—or Too Much—to Aid Recovery (WSJ)
- Cracks widen in US debt ceiling debate (FT)
- McConnell Takes Taxes Off the Table in Debt Limit Negotiations (BBG)
- Abe Seen Spending 12 Trillion Yen to Boost Japan’s Economy (BBG)
- Monti, Berlusconi Spar on Taxes in Weekend Media Barrage (BBG)
- Cameron Sets New Priorities for U.K. Coalition (BBG)
- Defiant Assad Rules Out Talks With Rebels (WSJ)
- Korea Seen Resisting Rate Cut as Won Threatens Exports (BBG)