Deutsche Bank

How Central Banks Are LBOing The World In One Stunning Chart

As of this moment, the 6 big central banks have a balance sheet that is equivalent to nearly 40% of global GDP, a number which if extrapolated will hit 50% just after 2018. Those wondering if this means that central banks are engaged in a creeping, stealthy, indrect LBO of the world's assets on behalf of third parties, the answer is perilously close to a resounding "yes."

Negative Rates & The War On Cash, Part 1: "There Is Nowhere To Go But Down"

As momentum builds in the developing deflationary spiral, we are seeing increasingly desperate measures to keep the global credit ponzi scheme from its inevitable conclusion. Credit bubbles are dynamic - they must grow continually or implode - hence they require ever more money to be lent into existence. As the peak of a credit bubble is reached, all these necessary factors first become problematic and then cease to be available at all. Past a certain point, there are hard limits to financial expansions, and the global economy is set to hit one imminently.

Deutsche Bank Tries To Explain Why It Did Not Deliver Physical Gold, Fails

"... we recommend in each specific case an individual review of the economic efficiency of a physical delivery. Should an investor’s request for the handover of physical gold not have been complied with immediately in individual cases, this will be reviewed and an individual solution will be found with the client."

Frontrunning: September 1

  • Global shares snap losing streak as oil ends its decline (Reuters)
  • Trump returns to hardline position on illegal immigration (Reuters)
  • U.S., others agreed to 'secret' exemptions for Iran after nuclear deal (Reuters)
  • China’s Factory Gauge Unexpectedly Rises to Highest Since 2014 (BBG)
  • Weak Pound Drives U.K. Factories Back From Brexit Shock (BBG)
  • Elon Musk Faces Cash Squeeze at Tesla, SolarCity (WSJ)

Global Stocks Rise, Metals Jump On Strong Chinese Data; Pound Surges On Record UK Mfg Spike

After a muted end to August, September started off on the strong foot overnight following a surprising beat in China's official manufacturing PMI print, which rose above 50 to the highest level in almost two years. That, together with a record rebound in the UK PMI, bolstered investor confidence, fueling gains in stocks and industrial metals. The dollar advanced against most of its peers while bonds retreated before Friday’s payrolls report.

Futures Flat, Global Stocks Rise As Treasury Yields See Biggest Monthly Jump In Over A Year

The August market doldrums were on display on the last day of the month as S&P futures were fractionally lower on non-existent volume, while both Europe and Asia were modestly in the green; ten-year Treasury yields headed for the biggest monthly jump in more than a year while the dhe dollar gained for a sixth day against the yen in the longest winning streak since March. European stocks advanced for a second day, adding to a monthly gain as oil trimmed its advance in the best month since April.

Michael Lewitt: "We're In The Late Stages of Ponzi Finance"

“They’ve tried to solve the debt crisis by printing trillions of dollars of more debt, and somehow they expect the economy to grow under the weight of those burdens. We’re just borrowing new money to pay back old money. I would say that we’re in the late stages of Ponzi finance.”

Deutsche Bank Calculates How Much Of The S&P's Value Is Due To Central Banks

If the ERP is responsible for 92% of the S&P500 move since 2012, or just over 800 points, that would imply that central bank policies are directly responsible for approximately 40% of the "value" in the market; any moves to undo this support could result in a drop that leaves the S&P in the neighborhood of ~1,400.