• Monetary Metals
    01/28/2015 - 00:28
    It’s terrifying how fast the whole Swiss yield curve sank under the waterline of zero. Now even the 15-year bond has negative interest. The franc has reached the end.

Deutsche Bank

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Frontrunning: September 19





  • Bernanke Resets Policy by Doing Nothing as Markets Soar (BBG)
  • Stocks Jump to Five-Year High as Metals Rally on Fed (BBG)
  • Centre-left bigwig says hard to stay allied with Berlusconi (ANSA)
  • J.P. Morgan 'Whale' Fine Put at Over $900 Million (WSJ)
  • Banks’ $10 Billion Sweet Spot Sets Off Buying Spree for Lenders (BBG)
  • Time to taper? Not if you look at bank loans (Reuters)
  • Mortgage Lending Reaches 5-Year High (WSJ) ... and then plunges as Fed gives "all clear" for a few months
  • Yellen Chances Grow as Obama Aides Test Senate Support (BBG)
 
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Fed Post-Mortem And Overnight Summary





Yes, yes, only the Fed matters. Still, there was some event flow overnight which while completely meaningless for the epic liquidity bubble, may have some implications eventually when the music finally stops. In thie regard, perhaps the best summary of the the lunacy coming out of the Marriner Eccles building is the following sentence from Bloomberg: "Bernanke said he was concerned that market interest rates, driven higher by his own suggestion he would scale back QE, would curb growth." One can't make this up.

 
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Frontrunning: September 18





  • Fed likely to reduce bond buying, pass policy milestone (Reuters)
  • Fall in Home Loans Pushing Fed Away From Taper in Mortgage Bonds (BBG)
  • Russia says U.N. report on Syria attack preconceived, political (Reuters)
  • China House Price Surge Raises Prospect of Steps to Cool Market (FT)
  • Cyprus Plans to Complete End of All Capital Controls... some time in 2014 (FT)
  • GOP Reworks Budget Terms (WSJ)
  • U.S. Navy was warned that Washington shooter 'heard voices' (Reuters)
  • Berlusconi Impeachment Vote Looms (WSJ)
  • Ageing could weaken central banks, spur rate volatility (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: September 17





  • Less Tapering Becomes Tightening Credit No Matter What Fed Says (BBG)
  • Yellen Is Now Top Fed Hopeful (WSJ)
  • Syria - A chemical crime, a complex reaction (Reuters)
  • More ECB collateral: Wrecked cruise ship Costa Concordia raised off rocks in Italy (Reuters)
  • Aging Boomers Befuddle Marketers Eying $15 Trillion Prize (BBG)
  • Abe Turns Pitchman, Says Japan Is Now A Buy (WSJ)
  • Ex-JPMorgan Employees Indicted Over $6.2 Billion Loss (BBG)
  • Barack Obama blinked first in battle for Lawrence Summers (FT)
  • Berlusconi to support Italian government in video message: sources (Reuters)
  • How China Lost Its Mojo: One Town's Story (WSJ)
 
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25 Fast Facts About The Federal Reserve





Amid the 100 year anniversary of the creation of the Federal Reserve, it is absolutely imperative that the American people understand that the Fed is at the very heart of our economic problems.  It is a system of money that was created by the bankers and that operates for the benefit of the bankers.  The American people like to think that we have a "democratic system", but there is nothing "democratic" about the Federal Reserve.  Unelected, unaccountable central planners from a private central bank run our financial system and manage our economy.  There is a reason why financial markets respond with a yawn when Barack Obama says something about the economy, but they swing wildly whenever Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke opens his mouth.  The Federal Reserve has far more power over the U.S. economy than anyone else does by a huge margin.  The Fed is the biggest Ponzi scheme in the history of the world, and if the American people truly understood how it really works, they would be screaming for it to be abolished immediately.  The following are 25 fast facts about the Federal Reserve that everyone should know...

 
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Gold Up In Asia After Summers Exits Fed Race - Dovish Yellen Gold Positive





Gold and silver futures surged 2.1% and 3.6% respectively and the dollar fell on the open in Asia prior to determined selling which again capped precious metal prices. Analysts and media attributed the price gains on the withdrawal of Larry Summers from the race to be the new Fed Chairman, leaving Janet Yellen as the new frontrunner.

 
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"Financial Innovation" Next Stop: China





Last week, we presented a table showing what 26 centuries of global financial innovation, which incidentally is the main reason why the Fed is now stuck in a corner and forced to keep the system from collapsing using every possible means, looked like. The source of the table, Deutsche Bank, had this to say: "financial innovation is a major positive driver of the money multiplier as it determines, among other things, the amount of leverage the banking system runs." It is indeed a positive driver until the point when the leverage in the system becomes unsustainable, and in the absense of yet another paradigm step function in innovation, leads to such catastrophic events as the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, whose aftermath is still very tangible today, five years later.  We concluded our post with a question directed to readers: "we ask: what is the next, perhaps final, can-kicking "financially innovative" milestone? If any." Overnight the answer appears to have presented itself.

China.

 
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Frontrunning: September 16





  • Summers Quit Fed Quest After Democrats Spurned Obama Favorite (BBG)
  • Geithner Still Not Interested in Fed Chair Slot (WSJ)
  • Gross’s Trade Sours as Bonds Lose Faith in Fed Guidance (BBG)
  • Bob Diamond calls for bank rules shake-up (FT)
  • Russia says may be time to force Assad's foes to talk peace (Reuters)
  • Iran Dials Up Syria Presence (WSJ)
  • Kerry Seeks to Sell Syria Deal (WSJ)
  • Shutdown of Japan’s Last Nuclear Reactor Raises Power Concerns (BBG)
  • Emerging Stocks Rise to 3-Month High as Bonds Gain on Fed (BBG)
  • Bernanke’s Maradona swerve hits bonds (FT)
 
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(Ir)Rational Overnight Exuberance On Summers Withdrawal Sends Futures To All Time Highs





While the only market moving event of note had nothing to do with the economy (as usual), and everything to do with the Fed's potential propensity to print even more dollars and inject even more reserves into the stock market (now that Summers the wrongly perceived "hawk" is out) some other notable events did take place in the Monday trading session. Of note: while India's August inflation soared far higher than the expected 5.7%, rising to 6.1% from 5.79% (making life for the RBI even more miserable, as it is fighting inflation on one hand, and a lack of liquidity on the other), in Europe inflation decelerated to 1.3% from 1.6% in July driven by a drop in energy prices, while core inflation was a tiny 1.1%. In a continent with record negative loan growth this is to be expected. Additionally, as also reported, Merkel appears to be positioned stronger ahead of this weekend's Federal election following stronger results for her CDU/CSU, if weaker for her broader coalition. In Libya, oil protesters said they would continue stoppages at oil terminals until their demands are met in yet another startling outcome for US foreign intervention. Finally, some headline on Syria noted a Kerry statement "will not tolerate avoidance of a Syria deal", while Lavrov observed that it may be time to "force Syria opposition to peace talks." And one quote of the day so far: "Don't want market to become excessively exuberant" from the ECB's Mersch- just modestly so?

 
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The Best And Worst Performing Assets Since Lehman Are...





No surprises here: Silver and Gold are the best, Banks and Greece - worst.

 
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Frontrunning: September 13





  • U.S., Russia to push for new Syria peace talks (Reuters)
  • Elite Syrian Unit Scatters Chemical Arms Stockpile (WSJ)
  • Obama to nominate Summers as Fed chief: Nikkei (Reuters)
  • Boehner Wants Joint Talks on Debt, Budget (WSJ)
  • House Republicans go for broke in fiscal battles (Reuters)
  • Pimco, BlackRock Together Received More Than a Quarter of Verizon's $49 Billion Bond Deal (WSJ)
  • Insane financial system lives post-Lehman (Gillian Tett)
  • JPM to add $2.5 billion to its litigation reserves in the second half of the year (WSJ)
  • Goldman’s Zurich offices visited over working-hours complaint (FT)
 
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Five Years Later: 18 Dollars Of Debt For Every Dollar Of GDP; Total G7 Debt/GDP: 440%





With everyone focused on the 5th anniversary of the Lehman failure, we are taking a quick look at how the world's developed (G7) nations have fared since 2008, and just what the cost to restore "stability" has been. In a nutshell: the G7 have added around $18tn of consolidated debt to a record $140 trillion, relative to only $1tn of nominal GDP activity and nearly $5tn of G7 central bank balance sheet expansion (Fed+BoJ+BoE+ECB). In other words, over the past five years in the developed world, it took $18 dollars of debt (of which 28% was provided by central banks) to generate $1 of growth. For all talk of "deleveraging" G7 consolidated debt has been at a record high 440% for the past four years. So in the G7, which is a good proxy for the developed world, debt continues to increase whilst nominal growth remains extremely low thus ensuring that the deleveraging process has yet to start. As Deutsche Bank states, "at best we’re stabilising the ratio at or around record highs."

 
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Frontrunning: September 12





  • Syrian Rebels Hurt by Delay (WSJ), U.S. seeks quick proof Syria ready to abandon chemical weapons (Reuters)
  • Lavrov Brings Acerbic Pragmatism to Syria Meet With Kerry (BBG)
  • Five years after Lehman, risk moves into the shadows (Reuters)
  • U.S. shares raw intelligence data with Israel, leaked document shows  (LA Times)
  • Japan to raise sales tax, launch $50 bln stimulus (AFP) - so 1) lower debt by sales tax, then 2) raise debt through stimulus.
  • Blackstone’s Hilton Files for $1.25 Billion U.S. Initial Offer (BBG)
  • Second Life Bankers Thrive in Dubai as Boutiques Boost Fees (BBG)
  • Brussels probes multinationals’ tax deals (FT)
  • Wall Street's Top Cop: SEC Tries to Rebuild Its Reputation (WSJ) ... and fails
  • Tablet sales set to overtake PCs (FT)
  • The end of angst? Prosperous Germans in no mood for change (Reuters)
 
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News Summary: Futures Flat In Absense Of Overnight Ramp





Jitters from Syria still abound, as confirmed by reports from the Israeli army that two shells had hit the Southern Golan region. Despite the reports that the shelling appeared to be errant, WTI remains near session highs as markets remain sensitive ahead of the meeting between US Secretary of State Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Geneva over the next two days. Buying of the 10Y is also prevalent and the yield on the benchmark bond was has dropped below 2.90%, or at 2.88% at last check. Today's key economic news in the US session will be the weekly claims report, the Fed buying 10 Year bonds at 11 am followed by the Treasury selling 30 Year bonds at 1 pm (this follows the Fed buying 30 Year bond yesterday: yes ironic).

 
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