Deutsche Bank

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Europe Fines 8 Banks €1.7 Billion For Rate Rigging In Largest Ever Cartel Penalty In History





  • Deutsche Bank gets biggest combined penalty of €725.4mln.
  • SocGen fined €445.9mln for Euribor manipulation.
  • RBS agrees to pay €391mln in cartels
  • JPMorgan fined €79.9mln in JPY LIBOR case.
  • R.P. Martin Holdings Ltd fined €247,000
  • UBS and Barclays escape fines as EU whistle-blowers.
 
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Frontrunning: December 4





  • EU Fines Financial Institutions Over Fixing Key Benchmarks (Reuters)
  • Euro-Area Economic Growth Slows as Exports, Consumption Cool (BBG) - someone has a very loose definition of growth
  • Ukraine Officials Scour Globe for Cash as Protests Build (BBG)
  • Oops: Franklin Boosted Ukraine Bet to $6 Billion as Selloff Began (BBG)
  • Japan Plans 18.6 Trillion Yen Economic Package to Support Growth (BBG) - or about 2 months of POMO
  • How Peugeot and France ran out of gas (Reuters)
  • Iran threatens to trigger oil price war (FT)
  • Abe Vows to Pass Secrecy Law That Hurts Cabinet’s Popularity (BBG)
  • Brazil economy turns in worst quarter for 5 years (FT)
  • Australia’s Slowdown Suggests RBA May Need to Do More (BBG)
  • Biden calls for trust with China amid airspace dispute (Reuters)
 
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Futures Fail To Ramp On Lack Of Yen Carry Excitement





While there was a plethora of macro data (starting with some ugly numbers out of Australia which clobbered AUD pairs overnight), China HSBC Services PMI dipping slighlty from 52.6 to 52.5, Final Eurozone PMI Services (printing at 51.2 up from 50.9 and beating expectations of the same on an increase in German PMI numbers from 54.5 to 55.7 and a decline in French PMI from 48.8 to 48.0), Eurozone retail sales declining by 0.2%, on expectations of an unchanged print, and much more (see  below), perhaps the most important news of the day came from Japan which many expect will be the source of much more easing in the coming months and thus serve as marginal lever to push global fungible markets higher. However, not only did various BOJ officials for the first time in a while talk down expectations of a QE boost, but the head of the Japan GPIF said that it doesn't need to sell JGBs right now as it would "rock markets" and that instead can achieve its targeted 52% weighing as bonds mature, that it may buy foreign bonds instead to raise weighting to core target (as the Fed buys Japan bonds?), and that it will be very difficult for Japan to hit the BOJ's inflation target in 2 years. Is Japan already getting cold feet on rumors of more QE and did it realize there are only so many assets it can monetize. If so, watch out below on the EURJPY which has now priced in about 700 pips of expected BOJ QE boosting in early 2014.

 
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Frontrunning: December 2





  • America’s Role as Consumer of Last Resort Goes Missing (BBG)
  • Holiday sales sag despite blitz of deals (WSJ)
  • Abe Support Falls Below 50% for First Time Amid Secrecy Drive (BBG)
  • U.S. airlines give China flight plans for defense zone (Reuters), while Japan: no change to airlines' notification policy when flying in East China Sea zone (Reuters)
  • Thai protesters seek to topple PM after clashes (Reuters)
  • Hilton Seeks as Much as $2.4 Billion in Biggest Hotel IPO (BBG)
  • Biden on delicate mission to defuse tensions in East Asia (Reuters)
  • Fed eyes financial system weak link (WSJ)
  • Pentagon in line of fire in US budget war (FT)
  • China’s monetary squeeze collides with housing bubble (FT)
 
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Overnight Carry Currency Weakness Has Yet To Translate Into Futures Ramp





Asian equities have gotten off to a rocky start to the week despite some initial optimism around the twin-Chinese PMI beats at the start of the session. That optimism has been replaced by selling in Chinese equities, particularly small-cap Chinese stocks and A-shares after the Chinese security regulator issued a reform plan for domestic IPOs over the weekend. The market is expecting the reforms to lead to a higher number of IPOs in the coming quarters, and the fear is that this will bring a wave of new supply of stock to an already-underperforming market. Indeed, the Chinese securities regulator expects about 50 firms to complete IPOs by January 2014 – and another 763 firms have already submitted their IPO applications and are currently awaiting approval. A large number of small cap stocks listed on Hong Kong’s Growth Enterprise Market were down by more than 5% this morning, while the Shanghai Composite is down by 0.9%. The Hang Seng (+0.4%), Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (+0.8%) are performing better on a relative basis, and other China-growth assets including the AUDUSD is up 0.5%. The Nikkei (-0.1%) is also a touch weaker after Japan’s Q3 capital expenditure numbers came in well below estimates (1.5% YoY vs 3.6% forecast). Elsewhere Sterling continues to forge new multi-year highs against the USD (+0.3% overnight).

 
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European Inflation Rises From The Ashes On Rebound In Energy Prices





If October's stunning(ly low) inflation print of 0.7% is what conventional wisdom believes is the reason for the surprising ECB rate cut (it isn't - the culprit was the record low increase in private loan creation), then the just released modest increase in Eurozone November CPI, which was expected to print at 0.8%, instead rising just above that, or 0.9%, will likely mean less surprises out of the ECB in the future. Core CPI (excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco) rose 1.0%, following a 0.8% increase in October and 0.9% expected, while the biggest headline bounce was in energy prices which rose from -1.7% to -1.1%, if still rather negative. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, food, alcohol & tobacco is expected to have the highest annual rate in November (1.6%, compared with 1.9% in October), followed by services (1.5%, compared with 1.2% in October), non-energy industrial goods (0.3%, stable compared with October) and energy (-1.1%, compared with -1.7% in October).

 
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5 Things To Ponder Over Thanksgiving





With the "inmates in charge of the asylum" during this holiday shortened trading week it seemed to be an apropriate opportunity to share a virtual cornucopia of topics to consider while enjoying the delicious delicacies, and subsequent tryptophan induced comas, of a traditional Thanksgiving.

 
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Thanksgiving Frontrunning And Market Summary





  • The second coming of Obamacare website - will it work? (Reuters)
  • Winter Storm Moves North as Macy’s Waits to Make Parade Call (BBG)
  • Eyeing holiday sales, more U.S. retailers to open on Thanksgiving (Reuters)
  • It's all Verizon's fault: H-P Will Replace Verizon in Hosting HealthCare.gov Website (WSJ)
  • Bitcoin Service Targets Kenya Remittances With Cut-Rate Fees (BBG)
  • Embattled Thai PM easily survives no-confidence vote, protests persist (Reuters)
  • For U.S. stores it is ugly out there: in more ways than one (Reuters)
  • Japan and S Korea military flout China air zone rules (FT)
  • UBS Restructuring Forex Unit (WSJ)
  • Trader Messages Scrutinized as UBS Bans Chats Among Firms (BBG)
  • ECB warns on external risks to eurozone financial system (FT)
 
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Guest Post: Zombies Make Dangerous Neighbors





A zombie government armed with accounting tricks has bailed out a zombie banking industry using even more financial phoniness. A few numbers pushed here and there, and the industry is earning record profits. But out in the real world where people live and work, things aren't so rosy. Zombies make negligent landlords and dangerous neighbors.

 
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Frontrunning: November 27





  • Winter storm lashes eastern U.S., threatens Thanksgiving travel (Reuters)
  • Fed Reveals New Concerns About Long-Term U.S. Slowdown (BBG)
  • Private equity keeps $789bn of powder dry (FT) - because they are "selling everything that is not nailed down"
  • Merkel and SPD clinch coalition deal two months after vote (Reuters)
  • Japan approves new state secrecy bill to combat leaks (BBC)
  • CLOs are the new black: Volatile Loan Securities Are Luring Fund Managers Again (WSJ)
  • Health website deadline nears (WSJ)
  • Norway Debates $800 Billion Wealth Fund’s Investment Options (BBG)
  • Set of global trade deals stalls (WSJ)
  • Berlusconi To Learn Fate In Senate  (Sky)
  • Silvio Berlusconi withdraws support from Italy’s government (FT)
 
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Margin Debt Soars To New Record; Investor Net Worth Hits Record Low





The correlation between stock prices and margin debt continues to rise (to new records of exuberant "Fed's got our backs" hope) as NYSE member margin balances surge to new record highs. Relative to the NYSE Composite, this is the most "leveraged' investors have been since the absolute peak in Feb 2000. What is more worrisome, or perhaps not, is the ongoing collapse in investor net worth - defined as total free credit in margin accounts less total margin debt - which has hit what appears to be all-time lows (i.e. there's less left than ever before) which as we noted previously raised a "red flag" with Deutsche Bank. Relative to the 'economy' margin debt has only been higher at the very peak in 2000 and 2007 and was never sustained at this level for more than 2 months. Sounds like a perfect time to BTFATH...

 
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How Gold Price Is Manipulated During The "London Fix"





"London Gold Market Fixing Ltd., a company controlled by the five banks that administers the benchmark, has no permanent employees. A call from Bloomberg News was referred to Douglas Beadle, 68, a former Rothschild banker, who acts as a consultant to the company from his home in Caterham, a small commuter town 45 minutes south of London by train. Beadle declined to comment on the benchmark-setting process."

 
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Frontrunning: November 25





  • Washington turns bond market upside (FT)
  • China Air-Zone Move Expands Field of Islands Spat With Japan (BBG); Japan rejects China claim on airspace over disputed islands (FT)
  • 'Great Satan' meets 'Axis of Evil' and strikes a deal (Reuters)
  • Iran Pact Faces Stiff Opposition (WSJ)
  • Allies Fear a US Pullback in Mideast (WSJ)
  • India to resume paying Iran in Euros (Economic Times)
  • At 'Business Insider,' it's time to sell (USA Today)
  • More ECB currency war jawboning: ECB’s Hansson Says Rate Cut Options Not Fully Exhausted (BBG)
  • Spy World Links Plus Obama Ties Stoke Concern About NSA Review (BBG)
  • A disunited Europe will struggle even to disintegrate (FT)
 
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Frontrunning: November 22





  • Wonder why: JPMorgan plans to keep pay roughly flat from last year (Reuters) - maybe this: Charles Schwab Warns "We Are In A Manipulated Market"
  • Democrats overturn filibuster rule, increasing Obama’s power (FT)
  • Day JFK Died We Traded Through Tears as NYSE Shut (BBG)
  • When even dictators snub Obama - Afghanistan rejects U.S. call for quick security deal (Reuters)
  • Obama Plunges in Investor Poll as Stocks Make New Highs (BBG)
  • Iran, six powers struggle to overcome snags in nuclear talks (Reuters)
  • Derision for China’s ‘rejuvenation index’ (FT)
  • Bottom is in: Paulson Said to Inform Clients He Won’t Add More to Gold (BBG)
  • German business sentiment rebounds strongly (WSJ)
  • WTO on verge of global trade pact (FT)
 
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Overnight Carry Continues To Push Risk To New Highs





There were two events of note in the overnight session: first was the return of the Japanese jawboning, because now that the Nikkei has upward momentum - nearly hitting 15600 in early trading only to close unchanged - and the Yen has downward momentum, the Abe, Kuroda, Amari trio will do everything to talk Mrs. Watanabe to accelerate the momentum. In this case BoJ Governor Kuroda said he does not think JPY is at abnormally low levels and consumer inflation likely to hit 2% by fiscal year to March 2016. Kuroda also said he does not think JPY is excessively weak or in a bubble now and JPY has corrected from excessive strength after Lehman. This also means look forward to the daily bevy of Japanese speaker headlines in overnight trading to push the USDJPY and EURJPY higher on an ad hoc basis. The other notable event was the German IFO Business climate which jumped from 107.4 to 109.3, beating expectations of 107.7 and in the process pushing the EUR notably higher, and particularly the EURJPY which moved from 136.30 to nearly 137 or a fresh four year high. At this point European exporters must be tearing their hair out, as must the ECB whose every effort to talk the Euro lower has been met with relentless export-crushing buying.

 
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