As Chinese stock market capitalization topped $10 trillion for the first time in history, so the spectre of total and utter speculative mania looms as the balance of margin loans tops $2.2 trillion and remains among the most obvious early warning systems for an increasingly fragile government-sponsored equity bubble. The problem, as Bloomberg reports, is that any pullback by margin traders would undercut one of the biggest drivers of the rally leaving the "regulator trying to slow down the growth without triggering panic," as Bocom's chief China strategist explains.
As expected, earlier today the pro-ECB top European Union court found that Draghi's impromptu announcement of an OMT, which was basically the wrapping of his "whatever it takes" policy from 2012 to prevent the collapse of the Eurozone when peripheral bond yields were hitting daily records, was perfectly legal.
On the heels of resignations from co-CEOs Anshu Jain and Jürgen Fitschen, Deutsche Bank loses another high profile employee as the bank's global head of commercial real estate departs for Blackstone. Jonathan Pollack's departure comes just one month after the bank's head of structured finance Elad Shraga left to start his own fund and seems to lend credence to the idea that Deutsche Bank may be in trouble.
With both sides digging in and unwilling to budge, will Europe revert back to its strategy from day 1, namely creating a slow initially, then fast bank run in Greece, one which leads to gradual then sudden capital controls, resulting in civil discontent and disobedience and ultimately, a violent overthrow of the Greek government.
After the carnage of the 2008 crash, former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker proposed a rule that would prevent banks from making short-term proprietary trades with financial instruments. In other words, no gambling allowed. This rule would become known as The Volcker Rule, and it went into partial effect on April 1, 2014. Full compliance is required by July 21, 2015. Of course, the bank lobbyists were hard at work, and numerous exceptions and loopholes were created.
Looking back at the Lehman Brothers collapse of 2008, it’s amazing how quickly it all happened. In hindsight there were a few early-warning signs, but the true scale of the disaster publicly unfolded only in the final moments before it became apparent that Lehman was doomed. Could this happen to Deutsche Bank?
Is Deustche Bank the next Lehman is likely the wrong question to be asking. Is Lehman the template for European banking may be more to the point. Take it from the guy that called the Lehman debacle 5 months before the fact.
As recently as several months ago, the financial press was surprised when a wave of Deutsche Bank employees, particularly those in the bank's legal department (such as here and here), decided to take their own lives. Now at least one Deutsche Banker, perhaps perturbed by the recent news involving the unexpected departure of his co-CEOs coupled with the even more unexpected raid of the bank's global headquarters, has decided to show the jump from sui- to homicide is a simple one.
From Greek lobbyists to Silicon Valley VCs and from Goldman BSDs to FT reporters, The Bilderberg Group will meet later this week in Tirol to discuss what happens next to the rest of the world... here are the participants...
David Nicholls: “Banks do not collude to try to set a Libor rating. “I think I am just hearing a lot of hysteria about Libor that is just misinformed." John Ewan: “A cabal of them could.” Nicholls: “What’s a cabal?” Ewan: “A group together could." Nicholls: “That’s an interesting conspiracy theory."
After a quiet Asian session, where not even the latest Chinese CPI miss was enough to push the SHCOMP to new multi-year highs, all eyes were on Europe where a few hours ago the European Commission announced it had received not one but two new proposals from Greece with the Greek government adding that it considers proposals submitted last week as remain basis for political negotiations. However, barely had Europe received the Greek addenda when it nein'ed all over them, with BBG citing an international official directly involved in talks saying that the "Greek government's revised proposal to unlock bailout funds is vague rehash of earlier plans, not considered credible."