Deutsche Bank

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Frontrunning: April 3





  • Russia says expects answers on NATO troops in eastern Europe (Reuters)
  • Dealers say GM customer anxiety rising, sales may take hit (Reuters)
  • China Unveils Mini-Stimulus Measure (WSJ)
  • Londoners Priced Out of Housing Blame Foreigners (BBG)
  • New earthquake in Chile prompts tsunami alerts (Reuters)
  • Ukrainian Billionaire Charged by U.S. With Bribe Scheme (BBG)
  • Chinese Investments in U.S. Commercial Real Estate Surges (BBG)
  • Old Math Casts Doubt on Accuracy of Oil Reserve Estimates (BBG)
  • US secretly created 'Cuban Twitter' to stir unrest (AP)
 
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ECB Preview: Expect More Talk And No Action





New cycle lows in Eurozone inflation along with disappointing ISMs across various nations raise the probability of a dovish ECB meeting tomorrow, in Citi's view. However, as Deutsche expands upon, they do not see an obvious trigger for "actual" policy easing in the data and events since the last ECB Council meeting and any "action" will take the form of words, not deeds. Despite all the hope in the world, Deutsche warns there would have to be a substantive deterioration relative to current forecasts to elicit an asset purchasing/QE response from the ECB. Instead, more comments on Euro strength, stronger forward guidance, confirmation of the magic of OMT are more likely but so far the market is absolutely calling Draghi's bluff and saying 'put-up-or-shut-up' especialy in terms of EUR strength.

 
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Frontrunning: April 2





  • Why did Yellen use criminals in her employment case studies? Hilsenrath explainz (Hilsenrath)
  • GM avoided defective switch redesign in 2005 to save a dollar each (Reuters)
  • Xuzhou Zhongsen Said to Avert Bond Default on Guarantor Aid  (BBG)
  • France's New Finance Minister Faces Fiscal Challenge (WSJ)
  • The magic is gone: Draghi’s Attempt to Talk Down Euro Lost on Traders (BBG)
  • Another John Kerry smashing success: U.S. Gambit on Mideast Peace Talks Falters (WSJ)
  • Combat-Ready China Military Seen as Xi’s Goal in Graft Battle (BBG)
  • Huge earthquake off Chile's north coast triggers tsunami (Reuters)
  • Pressure rises on Gross as investors pull $3.1 billion from Pimco's flagship fund (Reuters)
 
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The Top 25 "Greatest Fools" In The World





And by 'greatest fools' we mean sovereign wealth funds that stand ready to soak up any and every heavily-marketed pitch that comes their way...

 
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Best And Worst Performers In March And Q1: Full "Consensus Crushing" First Quarter Summary





For those used to smooth, undisturbed, Fed-assisted, no-risk-all-return, sailing, both the month of March and the entire first quarter were quite the wake up call.

 
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Frontrunning: April 1





  • GM enters harsh spotlight as Congress hearings begin (Reuters)
  • Facebook's Zuckerberg earns $3.3bn through share options (BBC)
  • Sheryl Sandberg has sold more than half her stake in FaceBook (FT)
  • Chinese Dragnet Entangles Family of Former Security Chief, Zhou Yongkang (WSJ)
  • NHTSA chief: GM did not share critical information with U.S. agency (Reuters)
  • Citigroup uncovered rogue trading in Mexico, fired two bond traders (Reuters)
  • Corporate America’s overseas cash pile rises to $947bn (FT)
  • Thai anti-government protester killed, rekindling political crisis (Reuters)
  • China Milk Thirst Hands U.S. Dairies Record 2014 Profits (BBG)
  • Caterpillar accused of ‘shifting’ profits (FT)
  • New iPhone 6 screens to enter production as early as May (Reuters)
 
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"Best Month For Stocks" Begins With Modest Overnight Futures Levitation





Among the key overnight events was the February Euro area unemployment report, which was unchanged at 11.9%, lower than the 12% median estimate; in Italy it rose to a record 13% while in Germany the locally defined jobless rate for March stayed at the lowest in at least two decades Euro zone PMI held at 53 in February, unchanged from January and matching median estimate in a Bloomberg survey HSBC/Markit’s China PMI fell to 48 in March, the lowest reading since July, from 48.5 in February; a separate PMI from the government, with a larger sample size, was at 50.3 from 50.2 the previous month NATO foreign ministers meet today to discuss their next steps after Putin began withdrawing forces stationed on Ukraine’s border Gazprom raised prices for Ukraine 44% after a discount deal expired, heaping financial pressure on the government in Kiev as it negotiates international bailouts.

 
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Read Michael Lewis' Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt: An Adaptation





The stock market really was rigged... “It’s 2009,” Katsuyama says. “This had been happening to me for almost two years. There’s no way I’m the first guy to have figured this out. So what happened to everyone else?” The question seemed to answer itself: Anyone who understood the problem was making money off it...

 
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Frontrunning: March 31





  • US, Russia talks fail to end Ukraine deadlock (AP)
  • Russian forces 'gradually withdrawing' from Ukraine border (AFP)
  • Turkish PM Erdogan tells enemies they will pay price after poll (Reuters)
  • And Goldman arrives: Credit markets open to Argentina for first time in years (Reuters)
  • Regulators Twice Failed to Open GM Probes (WSJ)
  • Bad loan writedowns soar at China banks (FT)
  • Investors Breathe Life Into European Banks' Bad Loans (WSJ)
  • Euro zone inflation drops to lowest since 2009 (Reuters)
  • Yellowstone National Park rattled by largest earthquake in 34 years (Reuters)
 
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"Fade The Early Ramp" Watch - Day 7





After ramping in overnight trading, following the spike in Japanese stocks following another batch of disappointing economic data out of the land of the rising sun and setting Abenomics which sent the USDJPY, and its derivative Nikkei225 surging, US equity futures have pared some of the gains in what now appears a daily phenomenon. Keep in mind, the pattern over the past 6 consecutive days has been to ramp stocks into the US open, followed by a determined fade all the way into the close, led by "growthy" stocks and what appears to be an ongoing unwind of a hedge fund basket by one or more entities. Could the entire market be pushed lower because one fund is unwinding (or liquidiating)? Normally we would say no, but with liquidity as non-existant as it is right now, nothing would surprise us any more.

 
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Frontrunning: March 28





  • Crimea Resolution Backed by U.S. Barely Gets UN Majority (BBG)
  • Russian Buildup Stokes Worries (WSJ)
  • As reported here first: China’s Developers Face Shakeout as Easy Money Ends (BBG)
  • U.S. House Poised to Clear Sanctions Called Putin Warning (BBG)
  • Bitcoin Prices Plunge on Report PBOC Orders Accounts Shut (BBG)
  • Search for lost Malaysian jet shifts significantly after new lead (Reuters)
  • Russian fund taps China and Middle East (FT)
  • Long battle looms between U.S. college, athletes seeking to unionize (Reuters)
  • Official warns EU-US trade deal at risk over investor cases (FT)
  • New iPhone likely out in September, Nikkei daily says (AFP)
 
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Frontrunning: March 27





  • BOE to Sign Agreement With China on Yuan Clearing Next Week (BBG)
  • U.S. law firm plans to bring suit against Boeing, Malaysia Airlines (Reuters)
  • Citigroup Fraud Stings Mexico Star as Medina-Mora Chased (BBG)
  • Fraternity Chief Feared for Son as Hazings Spurred JPMorgan Snub (BBG)
  • UBS suspends six more forex traders (FT)
  • Goodbye CSCO Q1 EPS: China to strengthen Internet security after U.S. spying report (Reuters)
  • Good luck: Spain Banks With $55 Billion of Property Seek Deals (BBG)
  • Citic Pacific Said to Plan About $4 Billion Public Offering (BBG)
  • Yahoo Japan to buy eAccess from SoftBank for $3.2 billion (Reuters)
  • "Whatever it takes" to talk down the Euro: Euro, peripheral bond yields fall on ECB easing debate (Reuters)
 
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Deutsche Bank-er Explains Why He Committed Suicide





The dismal list of financial executive deaths has recently increased to 11 in the last few months. Speculation has surrounded many of these deaths (and suicides) as to the reasoning; none more than the first - William Broeksmit, an executive who worked in Deutsche Bank's risk function and advised senior leadership who hanged himself in his South Kensington home in late January. However, as the WSJ reports, we now know why this poor man felt compelled to take his own life: he was "anxious about various authorities investigating areas of the bank where he worked" (and yes, we are well aware of the grammatical and temporal impossibilities suggested by this article's title).

 
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Frontrunning: March 24





  • U.S. Small-Cap Rally Sends Valuation 26% Above 1990s  (BBG)
  • Russian troops seize Ukraine marine base in Crimea (Reuters)
  • Apple in Talks With Comcast About Streaming-TV Service (WSJ)
  • Top J.P. Morgan Executive in China to Leave Bank (WSJ)
  • Treasury's Lew to undergo treatment for enlarged prostate (Reuters)
  • Billionaire Sought by U.S. Holds Key to Putin Gas Cash  (BBG)
  • Israel closes embassies around the world as diplomats strike (Reuters)
  • Herbalife to Nominate Three More Icahn Candidates to Board (BBG)
  • Australian ship homes in on possible debris from Malaysia plane (Reuters)
  • California DMV Investigating Potential Credit Card Breach (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: March 21





  • Australia says nothing spotted in search for plane (AP)
  • Putin looks to Asia as West threatens to isolate Russia (Reuters)
  • China Billionaire Builds Metals With Dreyfus, Glencore Hires (BBG)
  • China Beige Book Says Economy Slowing (BBG)
  • Caterpillar Said to Be Focus of Senate Overseas Tax Probe (BBG)
  • US Cancels Summit With Divided Group of Gulf Nations (WSJ)
  • Cyprus defense minister suffers aneurysm (AP)
  • Abe to zero in on economy as tax hike looms (Nikkei)
  • Europe strikes deal to complete banking union (Reuters)
 
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