Deutsche Bank

Why Deutsche Bank Thinks A Fed Rate Hike Would Unleash A Stock Market Crash

"If you think you’ve seen this movie before it’s because you have. Like during 2015, the Fed appears bent on pushing rate expectations higher, and the operative question is whether markets are sufficiently calm for the Fed to use the June 2016 meeting to pave the way for a July hike. We think the answer is no.... and the outlier appears to be the S&P500, where valuations appear excessive given the breakeven/real yield framework."

Frontrunning: May 20

  • Lacking new ideas, G7 to agree on 'go-your-own-way' approach (Reuters)
  • Japan's Aso tells G7 FX stability vital, no competitive devaluations (Reuters)
  • Snubbed by West, Russia rolls out red carpet for Asian leaders (Reuters)
  • The Fed Has Something to Prove to Wall Street (BBG)
  • Trump's Supreme Court list: all conservative, some provocative (Reuters)
  • Nasdaq Raises Lawsuit Threat Over SEC’s IEX Speed-Bump Plan (WSJ)

Futures Rise As Fed Fears Subside; Global Stocks Rebound From Six Week Lows

It will be fitting, not to mention symmetric, if stocks which yesterday closed at 7 weeks lows and red for the year, end the week the same way they started it: with a rally on no news, just more hopes that oil (which as recently as two years ago none other than Chair Yellen said said would be be "unambiguously good" if lower) will continue rising. While US markets ended yesterday's trading on a sour note, that weakness has failed to spread to the rest of the world, and global shares rebounded from a six-week low as crude and commodity prices recovered, while the yen weakened on reduced demand for haven assets.

'There Will Be Banker Blood': Why JPM Is Afraid Of "Quiet Trading Floors"

With banker bonuses set to drop this year, it should be no surprise that things are not all sunshine and roses on Wall Street. After 30 years of dramatically outperforming Main Street, Wall Street wages may be set for some mean-reversion as JPMorgan analysts take an ax to the biggest global investment banks' earnings. As Bloomberg reports, "quiet trading floors" are set to depress global investment banks’ second-quarter revenue 24 percent, with weakness across equities, interest rates, currencies, with a regionally-driven weakness from Asia.

Frontrunning: May 17

  • As Brexit vote looms, U.S. banks review their European commitments (Reuters)
  • Oil’s Strength Continues to Boost Global Stocks (WSJ)
  • Trump closing gap with Clinton, poll shows (Hill)
  • In Adjacent Pennsylvania Counties, Republicans Are Split on Donald Trump (WSJ)
  • Make America Gold Again: Calls for Everyone's Favorite Standard Are Back (BBG)

Analyst Warns Deutsche Bank's Problems May Now Be "Insurmountable"

"The biggest problem is that DBK has too much leverage. On our measures, we believe DBK is still over 40x levered. DBK can either reduce assets or increase capital to rectify this. On the first path, the markets do not exist in the size nor pricing to enable it to follow this route. Going down the second path also seems impossible at the moment, as the profitability of the core business is under pressure. Seeking outside capital is also likely to be difficult as management would likely find it hard to offer any type of return on new capital invested."

Liquidity Problems? Deutsche Bank Offers 5% Yields If Depositors Lock Up Their Money For Three Months

We were surprised to find that in a promotional offer by Europe's biggest (and by many accounts most insolvent) bank, Germany's Deutsche Bank is not only not rushing to penalize depositors, on the contrary it is offering its Belgian clients a 5% gross return for new €10,000 - €50,000 deposits if this money is locked up for the next three months. The offer is only valid for the next 40 days, until June 24.

The ECB Met With Goldman, Other Banks At Shanghai G-20 Meeting, Allegedly Leaking March Stimulus

On March 10, 2016 when the ECB announced the biggest expansion to quantitative easing in European history, when it shocked the market by announcing not only a reduction in its negative rate and expansion in the TLTRO program, but also the launch of a corporate bond monetization program.Well maybe not "shocked" the market, because as Bloomberg writes, ECB board members met with representatives of banks and investment managers including Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Credit Suisse and Moore Europe Capital Management in February, just days before the ECB's March 10 announcement.

Frontrunning: May 13

  • Nerves dominate before U.S. retail numbers (Reuters)
  • Stocks Give Up Week’s Gains as Commodities Fall; Yen, Bonds Rise (BBG)
  • Apple Invests $1 Billion in Didi, Uber’s Rival in China (WSJ)
  • Dollar hits two-week high, posts best fortnight since February (Reuters)
  • OPEC Sees Rival Oil Production Declining as Markets Rebalance (WSJ)
  • Trump on best behavior as he woos Republicans but differences remain (Reuters)

Deustche Bank Brokers Jailed After "Prolonged, Persistent Bad Behavior" In Biggest Insider Trading Bust Ever

Two former Deutsche Bank corporate brokers have been sentenced to one of the longest prison terms possible for the crime of insider trading in the UK. As US financial market participants walk free in the streets managing their own "home office" money, Martyn Dodgson and Andrew Hind will be rotting in a Wandsworth prison cell (among the worst reputed of England's prisons) for up to four and half years for what the judge called "persistent, prolonged and deliberately dishonest behavior." As Bloomberg reports, the group, including three other defendants, formed part of the FCA’s biggest insider-trading investigation dubbed Operation Tabernula.

Regulators Want To Know What Goldman Was Doing In The Panama Papers Database

What investigators found from the recently published Panama Papers database and other leaked documents is that none other than Goldman Sachs and three other banks that are licensed by the state of New York had set up Panamanian shell companies. The other banks are BNP Paribas SA, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and Standard Chartered Plc.

What Will The Global Economy Look Like After The "Great Reset"?

The globalist reset needs a trigger, a crisis which admittedly we do not have the ability to avoid. But, the reset also depends on the right people in place to rebuild the system after the crisis unfolds. Here is where the future can be determined. Whoever is left standing after the opening salvo will have a choice: to hide and hope for the best, or to fight for the position to choose who builds tomorrow. Will it be the psychotic globalist cabal, or will it be free people of conscience? It may not seem like it now, but the end result is up to us.