Deutsche Bank

Helicopter Money Has Arrived... And Nobody Noticed: Here's Why

"US will likely implement serious fiscal stimulus but without Fed QE. Europe will have no meaningful fiscal stimulus but lots of QE. Japan is a hybrid as it will have monetary policy that easily allows for more expansionary domestic fiscal policy. However there is some evidence to suggest that we’ll effectively have cross border helicopter money."

Deutsche Bank Warns "The Plate-Spinning Era" Is Over

"2016 has been a landmark year as we seem to have reached a point where the faster the plates are spun the more the unintended short-term consequences... the global financial system remains broken and extremely fragile. Secular stagnation trends are everywhere. The world has too big a debt burden for the current growth environment.."

Welcome To The "Melt-Up"

As Wile E. Coyote always discovers as he careens off the edge of the cliff, “gravity is a bitch.”

FX Markets Signal Brexit-Like Disruption As Italy Referendum Looms

FX traders are pricing in as big a potential disruption event for Italy's referendum as they did (correctly) for the Brexit vote. So-called 'currency-vigilantes' are buying EURUSD protection across the Dec 4th date of the vote in size as Italian bond spreads (over Bunds) push to 30-month highs.

ECB Rejects Buying Stocks As Draghi Drops The 'C' Word To EU Parliament

Mario Draghi just dropped the c-word. In his address to the EU Parliament, the ECB President explained that financial-stability risks are "for the time being, contained." Having admitted that Deutsche Bank is correct that negative rates certainly hurt bank profits, Draghi remains "committed to accomodative policy." But it was ECB executive board member Benoit Coeure that spoiled the party by rejecting the narrative of ECB stock buying.

Key Events In The Coming Thanksgiving-Shortened Week

The key economic releases this week in the Thanksgiving-shortened week are the durable goods report and new home sales on Wednesday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. Minutes from the November FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday.

Trumpflation Takes A Breather As Global Stocks Rise, Oil Jumps On Renewed OPEC "Deal Optimism"

With the Trumpflation euphoria easing back slightly overnight, leading to a modest paring in the USD index and US Treasury yields, Asian and European stocks rose, while US equity futures rebounded to just shy of new all time highs, as crude jumped on renewed optimism that OPEC will agree to cut output; metals rebounded from last week’s losses as yields dropped and the dollar halted its longest winning streak versus the euro.

Frontrunning: November 18

  • Dollar heads for best fortnight vs. yen since 1988 (Reuters)
  • Jeff Sessions Said to Be Trump’s Pick for Attorney General (BBG)
  • Flynn set to be national security adviser (Reuters)
  • NATO Secretary General Expects to Speak With Trump ‘Very Soon’ (BBG)
  • Hensarling Could Be Wall Street’s Best Hope or Worst Nightmare (BBG)

Peso Plunges After Banxico Hikes Rates 50bps, Fears "Change To US Relationship"

Banxico hike rates by 50bps - meeting expectations - to 5.25% (the highest since 2009) in their first post-Trump statement. Warning that the Mexican economy "faces elevated uncertainty" hike for the fourth time, presumably in an effort to support the currency but fears that a more hawkish Fed will be more aggressive going forward sparked renewed selling in the Peso.

Frontrunning: November 17

  • Dollar halts charge as bashed bonds steady (Reuters)
  • BOJ Fires Warning at Bond Market With Unlimited Buying Plan (BBG)
  • Trump Flouts Traditions Heading Into an Office Defined by Them (BBG)
  • Mr. Hedge Fund Goes to Washington, Looking for Ally in Trump (BBG)
  • Donald Trump’s Son-in-Law, Jared Kushner, Could Get Key White House Role (WSJ)