Deutsche Bank

Banks With $12 Trillion In Assets Threatened By Persistent "Shocks", IMF Finds

The global economic recovery would still leave about a quarter of banks in developed countries too weak to support further growth and susceptible to future shocks. This means that banks controlling about $12 trillion of assets would remain vulnerable during a rosy economic environment marked by faster economic activity, rising interest rates and declining defaults

Frontrunning: October 5

  • ECB 'taper' talk hits stocks, sterling hits 31-year low (Reuters)
  • Crude Rises to Three-Month High After U.S. Stockpiles Plunge (BBG)
  • Gross Says He Shortened Duration on Europe After Taper News (BBG)
  • Chicago Fed's Evans 'fine' with December hike if data stays firm (Reuters)
  • Euro zone business growth at 21-month low in September (Reuters)
  • Deutsche Bank Brings Too-Big-to-Fail Quandary Home to Merkel (BBG)

Gundlach: "Deutsche Bank Will Be Bailed Out But What About Credit Suisse"

While Germany's largest lender would ultimately be rescued by the German government if needed, other banks in the region wouldn’t be able to count on such support, Gundlach said. “Deutsche Bank will be supported by Germany if push comes to shove, but what about Credit Suisse, which has shown a similar decline in stock price? Who’s there to bail them out?”

Frontrunning: October 4

  • WikiLeaks' Assange signals release of documents before U.S. election (Reuters)
  • Kaine and Pence Look to Assure (and Attack) at Vice-Presidential Debate (BBG)
  • Pound tumbles to 31-year low, Deutsche Bank bounces (Reuters)
  • Trump Digs In Over Tax Disclosure (WSJ)
  • Oil eases as Iran, Libya output rises hit OPEC deal momentum (Reuters)

Bill Blain On Today's "Big Contrarian Trade"

"Whatever happens.. every European bank is not going to vanish in a puff of green smoke. Decimation sounds horrendous, but remember it means one in ten. Europe might benefit from it. One or two banks, (actually 3 Italians and maybe a German or two), might be led to the slaughter room, but generally the rest of Europe’s banks will probably survive. Picking the bottom is the trick.  It’s the big contrarian trade."

Sterling Tumbles To 31 Year Low Pushing The FTSE100 Near All Time High; US Futures Flat

Sterling dropped to its weakest since 1985, hit by a growing sense that the UK may be heading for a 'hard' Brexit in which it cuts links to the EU's single market in favor of total control over immigration. The dollar strengthened, the Nikkei225 rose as the Yen fell,  stocks in Europe rallied while US equity futures were fractionally in the green.

Deutsche Bank Stock Reopening Bounce Fades As CDS Hit Record Highs

Pent-up exuberance from the long weekend has lifted Deutsche Bank stock in early European trading, but it has also lifted the cost of credit protection as professionals in the CDS market appears far less confident in the dead-cat-bounce that equity speculators are already beginning to fade.