• Steve H. Hanke
    02/11/2016 - 16:08
    The burgeoning literature contains a great deal of hype, which validates the 95% Rule: 95% of what is written about economics and finance is either wrong or irrelevant.

Deutsche Bank

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Frontrunning: January 13





  • China trade surprise brings relief (Reuters)
  • Obama knocks Trump, voices optimism (Reuters)
  • Republican Candidates Criticize Obama’s State of the Union Address (WSJ)
  • Republicans and Democrats Agree: We Hate Wall Street (WSJ)
  • Oil rises for first time in eight sessions on China, U.S. stocks draw (Reuters)
  • U.S. Exports First Freely Traded Oil in 40 Years (WSJ)
  • China Imports Record Crude as Price Crash Accelerates Buying (BBG)
 
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China's Hard Landing To Trigger Meltdown In India: "We Will See Another Crisis"





The collapse of China's economy will have serious implications for India, the country's top investment banker warns. With exports in free fall and the government caught between fiscal retrenchment and the need to keep the economy afloat, it could be a rough year for the country Goldman swears will be a top economic performer in 2016.

 
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FBI Said To Probe If Hillary Clinton Violated Public Corruption Laws





In what may be the latest bad news for Hillary Clinton, whose various "previous life" scandals - from emails, to Clinton foundation donations - refuse to go away, the Hill reports, citing Fox News, that the FBI has expanded its investigation of Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server during her time as secretary of State to determine whether her Clinton Foundation work violated public corruption laws.

 
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"Catalonia Needs Its Own Central Bank": Spain's Black Swan Lives As New Catalan President Sworn In





“Are they really going to create their own tax authority and other state structures? Ignore the rhetoric and declarations, follow the actions.”

 
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The Looming Recession & The Muted Delight Of Janet Yellen's Epic Failure





Perhaps weak manufacturing, construction, and trade data are mere outliers.  Maybe the Fed can see beyond the fog to clearly capture the big picture.  Or maybe the Fed has lost its marbles.  Their outlook doesn’t jive with that of the regular working stiff.

 
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China's Largest Bank Is Mystery Buyer Of Massive 1,500 Ton Gold Vault In London





Here is precisely where the brand new gold vault of the world's biggest bank will be located.

 
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When 3 Trillion Just Isn't Enough: Analysts Fret Over "Worrying" China Reserve Burn





"The burn rate has been worrying. It’s not about how long it gets to zero, its about how long it gets to about 2, which is what they need."

 
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How Low Will The Yuan Go? Deutsche Bank Answers





"Until the market acquires greater confidence on the intended scale of currency depreciation as well as the equilibrium level of capital outflows (and effectiveness of capital controls) concerns around China’s currency policy are unlikely to subside any time soon."

 
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"Nowhere To Hide" As Baltic 'Fried' Index Careens To Fresh Record Low





Another day, another fresh all-time record low in The Baltic Dry Index as Deutsche Bank's "perfect storm" appears ever closer on the horizon. Plunging 4.7% overnight to 445 points, this is 20% lower than the previous record low in 1986 and as one strategist warns, "It’s a brutal start of the year, there’s just nowhere to hide on the market."

 
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Wall Street's Biggest Permabull Just Slashed His Q4 GDP Forecast To 0.5%, Says "It May Be Too High"





We have reduced our estimate of Q4 real GDP growth by one full percentage point to 0.5%, and this still might be too high in light of what could be much larger inventory liquidation than what we have assumed.

 
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A "Perfect Storm Is Coming" Deutsche Warns As Baltic Dry Falls To New Record Low





Following disappointing China PMI data and a collapse in US ISM Manufacturing imports data, the fact that The Baltic Dry Index has collapsed to fresh record lows will hardly be a surprise to many. However,as Deutsche Bank warns, a "perfect storm" is brewing in the dry bulk industry, as year-end improvements in rates failed to materialize, which indicates a looming surge in bankruptcies.

 
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Unmanageable Money: Hedge Funds Keep Losing (And Closing) - Why It Matters





Main Street is vulnerable to leveraged trading algorithms and Brazilian bonds because it’s not just exotica that is overleveraged. Risk-off, in short, is no longer just a temporary swing of the pendulum, guaranteed to reverse in a year or two. As amazing as this sounds, we’ve borrowed so much money that as hedge funds go, so goes the world.

 
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Fed Vice Chair Explains Why The Fed Is Still Obsessing With Negative Interest Rates





Another possible step would be to reduce short-term interest rates below zero if needed to provide additional accommodation... Could negative interest rates be a policy response that the Federal Reserve could choose to employ in a future crisis? ... these are transitional problems, but they might be sufficient to make a move to negative rates difficult to implement on short notice.

 
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2015 Year In Review: "Terminal Phase" Excess & Peak Cognitive Dissonance





Important pillars of the bull case evaporated throughout 2015. Global price pressures weakened, the global Credit backdrop deteriorated and the global economy decelerated. The huge bets on central bank policies left markets at high risk for abrupt reversals and trade unwinds – 2015 The Year of the Erratic Crowded Trade. Indeed, a global bear market commenced yet most remain bullish. Serious and objective analysts would view this ominously.

 
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Kyle Bass Suffers "Worst Year In The Last Ten", Reveals His Best Investment For The Next "3-5 Years"





Iin an interview to be aired tomorrow on Wall Street Week, Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass says that "this has been one of the worst years in the last ten"as a result of his dogmatic views on energy prices. And yet, instead of backing out the Texan is doubling down: "If you are going to allocate capital for the next three to five years, you should do it now" into the energy space over the next 6 months. Will he be right this time? Find out in 12 months.

 
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