Deutsche Bank

Your Last Minute FOMC Preview: "Will It Be A Dovish Hike Or Not"

The FOMC is expected to raise its overnight federal funds rate (FFR) target by 25bps to 1.00% to 1.25%, in what would be its second hike of 2017. Fed Funds Futures were pricing in a 95% implied probability that rates will be lifted – at one point last week, that probability was over 99%.

Frontrunning: June 13

  • The Snowballing Power of the VIX, Wall Street’s Fear Index (WSJ)
  • Beneath the Uneasy Peace Between Donald Trump and Janet Yellen (WSJ)
  • Senators to Query Sessions on Russia, Comey (BBG)
  • U.S. lawmakers to probe Tillerson on Russia, diplomacy budget cuts (Reuters)
  • Under pressure to soften Brexit, PM May to meet Northern Irish 'kingmakers' (Reuters)

The Risk To The "Bull" Thesis

"Economic realities and wishful fantasies eventually reconnect and generally in the worst possible way...."

China's "Bubble Prophet" Sees Unprecedented Surge In Home Prices

"We’re living through a bubble. We’re kicking the can down the road by buying time not to keep things in check, but to blow the bubble into an even bigger one. What’s happened over the past two years has made any new reforms even more difficult to roll out."

BofA: "If Bonds Are Right, Stocks Will Drop Up To 20%"

"If the bond markets are right and growth slows, then we think earnings growth would likely return to the path seen in recent years. If we fade earnings growth back to zero in 2018/19 and keep markets on current 2018 multiples, we find 13% downside potential for equity markets."