The banking crisis of 2008 never fully healed. It just got shuffled under the carpet while the public was fed a phony narrative that everything is fantastic. This turned out to be a gigantic farce; many of the world’s banking systems are just as risky as they were back in 2008.
As we noted yesterday, in his latest webcast to DoubleLine investors, Jeff Gundlach confirmed the key points from his weekend Barrons which summarized his outlook that "things will get worse in the future, not better." But while Gundlach's skeptical bent has been well-known, we also learned that Gundlach has been actively adding to shorts as the market breaks out to new record highs. Cited by Reuters, the new bond king said that there is "big money" to be made on the "short side."
Contagion is the reason Italy’s banking crisis is all of a sudden Europe’s biggest existential threat. Greece’s intractable problems are out of sight, out of mind; Brexit momentarily spooked investors and bankers; but Italy’s banking woes have the potential to wipe out investors and undo over 60 years of supranational state-building in Europe.
Jeroen Dijsselbloem poured cold water on Italy's ongoing attempts to force a bank bailout when he said earlier today that not only was he not "particularly" worried about italian banks but that “there have always been and will always be bankers that say ’we need more public money to recapitalize our banks.... and I will resist that very strongly because it is, again and again, hitting on the taxpayer." He then added that "the problems with the banks need to be sorted out in the banks and by banks.”
S&P 500 futures are set to open at new all time highs, with global stocks rallying as the yen weakened and the Nikkei soared on speculation Japan is about to unveil the first instance of "helicopter money"-lite, as well as due to a continuation of better-than-expected U.S. jobs data. Further speculation that Italy's (and Europe's) insolvent banks will be bailed out has further boosted sentiment.
David Folkerts-Landau, the chief economist of Deutsche Bank, has called for a multi-billion dollar bailout for European banks. Speaking to Germany's Welt am Sonntag, the economist said European institutions should get fresh capital for a recapitalization following a similar bailout in the US. What he didn't say is that the US bailout took place nearly a decade ago, in the meantime Europe's financial sector was supposed to be fixed courtesy of "prudent" fiscal and monetary policy. It wasn't.
It’s been almost 10 years in the making, but the fate of one of Europe’s most important financial institutions appears to be sealed. But, if the deaths of Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns were quick and painless, the coming demise of Deutsche Bank has been long, drawn out, and painful.
The current labor/productivity gap implies that over the next 4 quarters, the cumulative slowdown in labor input growth should be 4.5 percent. This implies that aggregate hours (which most recently have been expanding at a 1.6 percent annual rate) would average just 0.5 percent (1.6 – 4.5 / 4). Expressed in terms of new jobs, this means that unless firms cut back on employee hours, monthly job creation would average close to 60K next year, a substantial drop from the 200K average of the past 12 months.
Nothing is more shameless in a bedazzling sort of way than rich banksters standing on the public curb with their hands out. Such is the spectacle across Europe today as its largest banks begin to crash.
"For many years we've watched a set of market based indicators across seven major asset classes to help gauge cyclical conditions and S&P reward/risk. We can't think of a time the S&P was more disjointed from these other asset class price moves than in recent days."
In 2015, a Sky News reporter found “Migrant Handbooks” on the Greek island of Lesbos. It was later revealed that the handbooks, which are written in Arabic, had been given to refugees before crossing the Mediterranean by a group called “Welcome to the EU.” Welcome to the EU is funded by—you guessed it—George Soros' Open Society Foundations. Soros has not only backed groups that advocate the resettlement of third-world migrants into Europe, he in fact is the architect of the “Merkel Plan.”