Deutsche Bank

Presenting SocGen's "Most Frightening Credit Chart"

"I sometimes feel like ‘The Grim Reaper’, scouring the research savannah in a ghoulish quest to harvest bad news with a forceful sweep of my scythe. Imagine then my perverse delight when our credit team produced what is one of the scariest charts I have seen for a very long time." = Albert Edwards

Frontrunning: December 8

  • Draghi Expected to Lay Out Plans for More ECB Stimulus (WSJ)
  • Bonds Fall as Investors Turn Wary on ECB Stimulus; Euro Gains (BBG)
  • European Stock Traders Look to Draghi to Break Santa Curse  (BBG)
  • Trump to nominate Pruitt to lead U.S. environmental agency (Reuters)
  • Trump's choice of China envoy a positive sign for ties, Xinhua says (Reuters)
  • Syrian Rebels Pin Hopes on Trump (WSJ)

Global Equity Euphoria Prepares To Meet Mario Draghi

There’s seemingly no stopping the equity side of the “Trumpflation” trade in what may be developing into an epic year end blow-off top. The euphoria which took the S&P 500, Russell 2000 and the Transports to all-time highs yesterday, and the Dow to less than 500 points away from 20,000 carried over into Asian stocks (+0.8%) as they followed bullish trend, while European stocks rose for a fourth day.

JPMorgan, HSBC, Credit Agricole "Bank Cartel" Fined $521 Million For Euribor Rigging

The European Commission has fined Crédit Agricole, HSBC and JPMorgan Chase, a total of €485m for participating in a cartel concerning the pricing of interest rate derivatives denominated in euros. “The aim of the cartel was to distort” Euribor, said EU competition policy chief Vestager. The traders involved "tried to submit quotes to move the Euribor rate up or down."

Italy's Monte Paschi Told To "Prepare For State Bailout"

Bankers are running out of private-sector solutions for Monte dei Paschi di Siena and have told the Italian lender to prepare for a state bailout this weekend after prime minister Matteo Renzi was felled by a referendum defeat.

A Look At This Week's "Other" Big Event

With the Italian referendum now in the rearview mirror, the market's attention focuses on this Thursday's second most important event, the ECB meeting on Thursday. Here are the key questions the market will want answered.

Deutsche Bank CEO Warns Employees "Europe Is Endangered" After Italy Vote

"The environment remains uncertain with a number of potentially frosty developments. The result of the constitutional referendum in Italy is a harbinger of renewed turbulence that could spill over from the political arena to the economy – with Europe particularly endangered."

Fed Labor Market Conditions Index Contracts For 5th Straight Month

Despite a small rise MoM, The Fed's own Labor Market Conditions Index has now deteriorated year-over-year for 5 straight months, despite significant upward revisions over the last 6 months, most notably in September and October. As Deutsche's Jo Lavorgan notes,"the upshot is that the economic outlook remains fragile despite the ostensible robustness of the labor market."

"Meanwhile In Europe..." - The Big Day Arrives

Less than a month after the "shocking" election of Donald Trump as US president, the world prepares for another day of political shockwaves, this time out of Europe, when on Sunday all eyes will be on Italy and, to a slightly lesser extent, Austria.

Deutsche Bank Pays $60 Million To Settle Gold-Manipulation Lawsuit

Two months after paying $38 million to settle a silver price-fixing case, on Friday Deutsche Bank agreed to pay $60 million to settle private U.S. antitrust litigation by traders and other investors who accused the German bank of conspiring to manipulate gold prices at their expense.