- Shares bounce, euro fades after savage ECB reaction (Reuters)
- Trump's Islam comments draw attacks as Republicans discover civility (Reuters)
- Oil Prices Rise on Hopes Glut Will Ease (WSJ)
- IEA Says Oil Price May Have Bottomed as High-Cost Producers Cut (BBG)
- Why Euro-Area Inflation Will Be Low for Years, According to Draghi (BBG)
- Calmer markets, positive data prime Fed to push ahead with rate rises (Reuters)
Less than 24 hours after European stocks tumbled on initial disappointment by Draghi's announcement that rates will not be cut further, mood has changed dramatically and the result has been that after "reassessing" the ECB kitchen sink stimulus, risk has soared overnight with both Asian and European stocks surging. As of this moment European bourses are all broadly higher led by banks, with the DAX and FTSE both up over 2.7%, while the Stoxx 600 is higher by 2.3% as of this writing.
The story of the theft of $100 million from the Bangladesh central bank - by way of the New York Federal Reserve - is getting more fascinating by the day.
Is today's the most challenging central bank meeting in living memory? The reason we say this is that up until now virtually all meetings have rested on will they or won't they ease and if they do by how much? Even in a crisis central banks have generally been able to get bang for their buck by easing more than expected. However there seems to be more at stake for today's ECB get-together. It's the type of easing that matters.
- Pressure Is on Mario Draghi to Show ECB Has Tools to Boost Low Inflation (WSJ)
- Euro dips as ECB sets sights on deeper negative rates (Reuters)
- Ohio's 'dirty little secret': blue-collar Democrats for Trump (Reuters)
- Irish Economy Expanded 7.8% in 2015, Fastest Pace Since 2000 (BBG)
- Too Many Boats for Too Little Cargo Leaves Shippers High and Dry (BBG)
Global stocks and U.S. equity futures are fractionally higher (unchanged really) this morning (despite China's historic NPL debt-for-equity proposal) as traders await the main event of the day: the ECB's 1:45pm CET announcement, more importantly what Mario Draghi will announce during the 2:30pm CET press conference, and most importantly, whether he will disappoint as he did in December or finally unleash the bazooka that the market has been desperately demanding.
"Liquidity" is a lot like health insurance. You don't need it until you do.
All of life’s odds aren’t 3:2, but that’s how you’re supposed to bet, or so they say. They are not saying that so much anymore, or saying that history rhymes, or that nothing’s new under the sun. More and more 'they's seem to be figuring out that past economic and market experiences can’t be extrapolated forward - a terrifying prospect for the social and political order.
In this bipolar market, where only momentum, liquidity, technicals and short squeezes matter, as well as the occasional kneejerk reaction to a flashing red headline (usually some lie out of Venezuela or Nigeria about an imminent OPEC meeting which has not even been scheduled), one thing that no longer seems to have an impact on prices is actual news and fundamentals. So to help those who are blindly following the price of oil as an indicator of what is happening, here is a brief recap of the main news and research reports that should be impacting where oil trades today, but almost certainly won't.
- Angry White Males Propel Donald Trump—and Bernie Sanders (WSJ)
- Trump Beats Back Attacks and Tightens Hold on Primary Race (BBG)
- Fed Likely to Stand Pat on Rates, Keep Options Open for April or June (Hilsenrath)
- Draghi Stimulus Fails in Stock Market as Swings Match 2008 (BBG)
- Sabine Oil wins pipeline ruling in a blow to pipeline operators (Reuters)
"The most eye-catching of [fiscal stimulus] views is a call to deploy ‘helicopter money’, which we define as monetary financing of fiscal deficit. However, this argument is misleading. Surely this has already been implemented in many developed countries through QE. Why bring it up now despite it has been already deployed?"
Surprise! Negative rates are set to backfire in Japan as consumption likely to suffer.
There is an odd feeling of Deja QEu this morning, when with two hours to go until the February payrolls, global stocks are modestly higher, US equity futures are likewise slightly higher on the back of a weaker dollar (or perhaps stronger Euro following a Market News report according to which the ECB may disappoint, more on that shortly), but it is gold that is breaking out, and after entering a bull market yesterday when it rallied 20% from its December lows gold has continued to surge, rising as high as @1,274 in early trading a price last seen in January 2015.
While Asian stocks continued their longest rally since August overnight, led higher for the third consecutive day on the back of Japan (+1.3%), Australia (+1.2%) and China (+0.4%) strength, European stocks have as of this moment halted their longest rally since October (Stoxx -0.1%) and U.S. index futures are little changed. Oil slipped from an eight-week high despite yesterday's massive rise in US oil inventories on hopes Saudi Arabia may be forced to cut production as its budget strains grow actue and the kingdom is forced to seek a $10 billion loan, its first material borrowing in a decade.
Market discounting ECB to intervene boldly, via a combination of increased QE, LTRO, depo rate cut, without collateral damage caused on banks by deeply negative interest rates. As banks performed strongly in recent days, market may think the recent complaining about negative rates by top banks’ executives across Europe has been heard. On the contrary, we believe deeply negative rates are coming, and are an inescapable negative for the banking sector, leading to overall weak equity markets post ECB.