Pizzaflation is creeping through the nation. Inflation is slow, and subtle, and making our favorite things like Pizza unaffordable. Pizzaflation explains the deterioration of the US Dollar in something we all love; Pizza.
Realized volatility in the US equity markets has been extremely low, and much discussed, but, as Deutsche Bank's David Bianco warns this is "the quiet before the storm." There are five catalysts for increased vol through Autumn but most worrying is the "High P/E, Low VIX" scenario is very risky having reached "mania" levels.
European stocks, Asian shares and U.S. equity index futures decline. Selloff in global stocks and bonds deepened after signs central banks in Europe and Japan are starting to question the benefits of further monetary easing. North Korea nuclear test weakens the won.
"Don't just do something, stand there (and say something)," appears to be the mantra for the world's central banks at the moment as $200bn of QE is puked across global asset markets every month and everyone promising to do more of what they started (Fed hikes and BoJ, ECB asset purchasing).
Global economies have enjoyed a perfect storm of positive demographic trends over the past 3 decades. Deutsche warns that "extrapolation of the last 35 years could be the most dangerous mistake made by investors."
“Given the backdrop of one of the most uncertain macroeconomic, systemic, geopolitical and monetary outlooks both the U.S. and the world have ever seen, we are likely to see gold do well in its traditionally seasonal strong period...”
History teaches us that central authorities dislike escape routes, at least for the majority, and are therefore prone to closing them, so that control of a limited money supply can remain in the hands of the very few. The existence of escape routes for capital preservation undermines the viability of the banking system, which is already over-extended, over-leveraged and extremely fragile. In the 1930s, gold was the escape route, so gold was confiscated. This time cash serves that role...
Silver surged 3.5% yesterday rising 65 cents and closing at $20.04/oz and gold rose by 2% or by $23 to close at $1,348.80/oz after poor economic data in the U.S. underlined deepening concerns about the economic and indeed the monetary outlook.
The unprecedented period of low volatility, in which the S&P hasn't moved more than 1% in either direction, is now well into its 40th day and the muted overnight session has done nothing to put this streak in jeopardy with S&P futures once again hugging the flatline ahead of the widely expected 3:30pm ramp. European stocks were likewise little changed while Asia was fractionally higher depite a modest dip in the Nikkei.
As of this moment, the 6 big central banks have a balance sheet that is equivalent to nearly 40% of global GDP, a number which if extrapolated will hit 50% just after 2018. Those wondering if this means that central banks are engaged in a creeping, stealthy, indrect LBO of the world's assets on behalf of third parties, the answer is perilously close to a resounding "yes."
As momentum builds in the developing deflationary spiral, we are seeing increasingly desperate measures to keep the global credit ponzi scheme from its inevitable conclusion. Credit bubbles are dynamic - they must grow continually or implode - hence they require ever more money to be lent into existence. As the peak of a credit bubble is reached, all these necessary factors first become problematic and then cease to be available at all. Past a certain point, there are hard limits to financial expansions, and the global economy is set to hit one imminently.
After finding what appears to be a slam dunk case of fraud, provable by even the most mediocre civil litigator, we uncover DB apparently preparing for much more of the same. DB stakeholders, Caveat Emptor!