Deutsche Bank

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Overnight Carry Currency Weakness Has Yet To Translate Into Futures Ramp





Asian equities have gotten off to a rocky start to the week despite some initial optimism around the twin-Chinese PMI beats at the start of the session. That optimism has been replaced by selling in Chinese equities, particularly small-cap Chinese stocks and A-shares after the Chinese security regulator issued a reform plan for domestic IPOs over the weekend. The market is expecting the reforms to lead to a higher number of IPOs in the coming quarters, and the fear is that this will bring a wave of new supply of stock to an already-underperforming market. Indeed, the Chinese securities regulator expects about 50 firms to complete IPOs by January 2014 – and another 763 firms have already submitted their IPO applications and are currently awaiting approval. A large number of small cap stocks listed on Hong Kong’s Growth Enterprise Market were down by more than 5% this morning, while the Shanghai Composite is down by 0.9%. The Hang Seng (+0.4%), Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (+0.8%) are performing better on a relative basis, and other China-growth assets including the AUDUSD is up 0.5%. The Nikkei (-0.1%) is also a touch weaker after Japan’s Q3 capital expenditure numbers came in well below estimates (1.5% YoY vs 3.6% forecast). Elsewhere Sterling continues to forge new multi-year highs against the USD (+0.3% overnight).

 


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European Inflation Rises From The Ashes On Rebound In Energy Prices





If October's stunning(ly low) inflation print of 0.7% is what conventional wisdom believes is the reason for the surprising ECB rate cut (it isn't - the culprit was the record low increase in private loan creation), then the just released modest increase in Eurozone November CPI, which was expected to print at 0.8%, instead rising just above that, or 0.9%, will likely mean less surprises out of the ECB in the future. Core CPI (excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco) rose 1.0%, following a 0.8% increase in October and 0.9% expected, while the biggest headline bounce was in energy prices which rose from -1.7% to -1.1%, if still rather negative. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, food, alcohol & tobacco is expected to have the highest annual rate in November (1.6%, compared with 1.9% in October), followed by services (1.5%, compared with 1.2% in October), non-energy industrial goods (0.3%, stable compared with October) and energy (-1.1%, compared with -1.7% in October).

 


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5 Things To Ponder Over Thanksgiving





With the "inmates in charge of the asylum" during this holiday shortened trading week it seemed to be an apropriate opportunity to share a virtual cornucopia of topics to consider while enjoying the delicious delicacies, and subsequent tryptophan induced comas, of a traditional Thanksgiving.

 


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Thanksgiving Frontrunning And Market Summary





  • The second coming of Obamacare website - will it work? (Reuters)
  • Winter Storm Moves North as Macy’s Waits to Make Parade Call (BBG)
  • Eyeing holiday sales, more U.S. retailers to open on Thanksgiving (Reuters)
  • It's all Verizon's fault: H-P Will Replace Verizon in Hosting HealthCare.gov Website (WSJ)
  • Bitcoin Service Targets Kenya Remittances With Cut-Rate Fees (BBG)
  • Embattled Thai PM easily survives no-confidence vote, protests persist (Reuters)
  • For U.S. stores it is ugly out there: in more ways than one (Reuters)
  • Japan and S Korea military flout China air zone rules (FT)
  • UBS Restructuring Forex Unit (WSJ)
  • Trader Messages Scrutinized as UBS Bans Chats Among Firms (BBG)
  • ECB warns on external risks to eurozone financial system (FT)
 


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Guest Post: Zombies Make Dangerous Neighbors





A zombie government armed with accounting tricks has bailed out a zombie banking industry using even more financial phoniness. A few numbers pushed here and there, and the industry is earning record profits. But out in the real world where people live and work, things aren't so rosy. Zombies make negligent landlords and dangerous neighbors.

 


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Margin Debt Soars To New Record; Investor Net Worth Hits Record Low





The correlation between stock prices and margin debt continues to rise (to new records of exuberant "Fed's got our backs" hope) as NYSE member margin balances surge to new record highs. Relative to the NYSE Composite, this is the most "leveraged' investors have been since the absolute peak in Feb 2000. What is more worrisome, or perhaps not, is the ongoing collapse in investor net worth - defined as total free credit in margin accounts less total margin debt - which has hit what appears to be all-time lows (i.e. there's less left than ever before) which as we noted previously raised a "red flag" with Deutsche Bank. Relative to the 'economy' margin debt has only been higher at the very peak in 2000 and 2007 and was never sustained at this level for more than 2 months. Sounds like a perfect time to BTFATH...

 


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How Gold Price Is Manipulated During The "London Fix"





"London Gold Market Fixing Ltd., a company controlled by the five banks that administers the benchmark, has no permanent employees. A call from Bloomberg News was referred to Douglas Beadle, 68, a former Rothschild banker, who acts as a consultant to the company from his home in Caterham, a small commuter town 45 minutes south of London by train. Beadle declined to comment on the benchmark-setting process."

 


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Overnight Carry Continues To Push Risk To New Highs





There were two events of note in the overnight session: first was the return of the Japanese jawboning, because now that the Nikkei has upward momentum - nearly hitting 15600 in early trading only to close unchanged - and the Yen has downward momentum, the Abe, Kuroda, Amari trio will do everything to talk Mrs. Watanabe to accelerate the momentum. In this case BoJ Governor Kuroda said he does not think JPY is at abnormally low levels and consumer inflation likely to hit 2% by fiscal year to March 2016. Kuroda also said he does not think JPY is excessively weak or in a bubble now and JPY has corrected from excessive strength after Lehman. This also means look forward to the daily bevy of Japanese speaker headlines in overnight trading to push the USDJPY and EURJPY higher on an ad hoc basis. The other notable event was the German IFO Business climate which jumped from 107.4 to 109.3, beating expectations of 107.7 and in the process pushing the EUR notably higher, and particularly the EURJPY which moved from 136.30 to nearly 137 or a fresh four year high. At this point European exporters must be tearing their hair out, as must the ECB whose every effort to talk the Euro lower has been met with relentless export-crushing buying.

 


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Frontrunning: November 21





  • When it fails, do more of it - Bank of Japan hints at extending ultra-loose monetary policy (FT)
  • PBOC Says No Longer in China’s Interest to Increase Reserves (BBG)
  • Fed casts about for endgame on easy-money policy  (Hilsenrath)
  • Big trucks still rule Detroit in energy-conscious era (Reuters)
  • Debt Limit Rise May Not Be Needed Until June, CBO Says (BBG)
  • Some Insurance Regulators Turn Down White House Invitation (WSJ)
  • Say Goodbye to the Car Salesman (WSJ)
  • U.S. drone kills senior militant in Pakistani seminary (Reuters)
  • French business sector contracts sharply (FT)
  • How Germany's taxman used stolen data to squeeze Switzerland (Reuters)
  • Fed casts about for endgame on easy-money policy (WSJ)
  • France, Italy call for full-time Eurogroup chief (Reuters)
 


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"Beggar Thy Neighbor" Is Back: Goldman's Five Things To Watch As Currency Wars Return





"We’re seeing a new era of currency wars," Neil Mellor, a foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of New York Mellon in London. This is what Bloomberg reported today in a piece titled "Race to Bottom Resumes as Central Bankers Ease Anew." For the most part Bloomberg's account is accurate, although it has one fundamental flaw: currency wars never left, but were merely put on hiatus as the liquidity tsunami resulting from the BOJ's mega easing lifted all boats for a few months. And now that the world has habituated to nearly $200 billion in new flow every month (and much more when adding China's monthly new loan creation), the time to extract marginal gains from a world in which global trade continues to contract despite the ongoing surge in global liquidity, central banks are back to doing the one thing they can - printing more. So what should one watch for now that even the MSM admits the currency wars are "back"? Goldman lists the 5 key areas to watch as central banks resume beggar thy neighbor policies with never before seen vigor.

 


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Guest Post: The Subprime Final Solution





The MSM did their usual spin job on the consumer credit data released earlier this week. They reported a 5.4% increase in consumer debt outstanding to an all-time high of $3.051 trillion. In the Orwellian doublethink world we currently inhabit, the consumer taking on more debt is seen as a constructive sign. The storyline being sold by the corporate MSM propaganda machine, serving the establishment, is that consumers’ taking on debt is a sure sign of economic recovery. They must be confident about the future and rolling in dough from their new part-time jobs as Pizza Hut delivery men. Plus, they are now eligible for free healthcare, compliments of Obama, once they can log-on. Of course, buried at the bottom of the Federal Reserve press release and never mentioned on CNBC or the other dying legacy media outlets is the facts and details behind the all-time high in consumer credit. They count on the high probability the average math challenged American has no clue regarding the distinction between revolving and non-revolving credit or who controls the distribution of such credit. A shocking fact (to historically challenged government educated drones) revealed by the Federal Reserve data is that credit card debt did not exist prior to 1968. How could people live their lives without credit cards? 1968 marked a turning point for America...

 


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Guest Post: How China Can Cause The Death Of The Dollar And The Entire U.S. Financial System





The death of the dollar is coming, and it will probably be China that pulls the trigger.  What you are about to read is understood by only a very small fraction of all Americans.  Right now, the U.S. dollar is the de facto reserve currency of the planet.  Most global trade is conducted in U.S. dollars, and almost all oil is sold for U.S. dollars.  More than 60 percent of all global foreign exchange reserves are held in U.S. dollars, and far more U.S. dollars are actually used outside of the United States than inside of it.  As will be described below, this has given the United States some tremendous economic advantages, and most Americans have no idea how much their current standard of living depends on the dollar remaining the reserve currency of the world.  Unfortunately, thanks to reckless money printing by the Federal Reserve and the reckless accumulation of debt by the federal government, the status of the dollar as the reserve currency of the world is now in great jeopardy.

 


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No Car, No FICO Score, No Problem: The NINJAs Have Taken Over The Subprime Lunatic Asylum





One of the most trumpeted stories justifying the US economic "recovery" is the resurgence in car sales, which have now returned to an annual sales clip almost on par with that from before the great depression. What is conveniently left out of all such stories is what is the funding for these purchases (funnelling through to the top and bottom line of such administration darling companies as GM) comes from. The answer: the same NINJA loans, with non-existent zero credit rating requirements that allowed anything with a pulse to buy a McMansion during the peak day of the last credit bubble.  Bloomberg reports on an issue we have been reporting for over a year, namely the 'stringent' credit-check requirements for new car purchasers by recounting the story of Alan Helfman, a car dealer in Houston, who served a woman in his showroom last month with a credit score lower than 500 and a desire for a new Dodge Dart for her daily commute. She drove away with a new car.

 

 


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Deutsche Bank: "Yellen May Actually Have To Increase QE" - Here's Why





With what few vacuum tube-based trading algos are left and reacting with rabid kneejerkiness to every flashing red headline, one would get the impression that what matters to the Fed's decision on how to adjust its balance sheet flow depends on the US economy. But if Deutsche Bank is correct, the next source of global economic contraction, which it will be up to the Fed to offset (just like China was the marginal growth dynamo in the months after Lehman filed), and result in an increase in QE nevermind taper, is not in the US at all, but in China where things are about to go bump in the night. Which means that just like that we have moved into the "New Normal paradigm" where the worse the news out of China, the better for stocks.

 


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Quiet Start To #Turbulent Day Summarized In Just Over 140 Characters





When it comes to US equities today, the picture below summarizes it all... the only question is whether the NYSE breaks to celebrate the year's overhyped social media IPO.Aside from the non-event that is the going public of a company that will likely not generate profits for years, if ever, the overnight market has been quiet with all major stock indices in Asia trading modestly lower on the back of a modestly stronger dollar, although the main currency to watch will be the Euro (German Industrial production of -0.9% today was a miss of 0.0% expectations and down from 1.6% previously), when the ECB releases its monthly statement at 7:45 am Eastern when it is largely expected to do nothing but may hint at more easing in the future. On the US docket we have the weekly initial claims (expected at 335k) which now that they are again in a rising phase, have been the latest data item to be ignored in the Bizarro market, as well as the latest Q3 GDP estimate, pegged by consensus at 2.0%.

 


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