Deutsche Bank

A Tale Of Two Asset Classes: Gold Miners Soar, Banks Crash

"...that’s credit bubble thinking. Banks are dominant forces in an economy only when that economy is creating an unhealthy amount of credit. When the process exhausts itself the banks tank, and terrified capital flows back into “primitive” safe havens. Like Friday..."

"Brexit Is A Bear Stearns Moment, Not A Lehman Moment"

Brexit is a Bear Stearns moment, not a Lehman moment. That’s not to diminish what’s happening (markets felt like death in March, 2008), but this isn’t the event to make you run for the hills. Why not? Because it doesn’t directly crater the global currency system. It’s not too big of a shock for the central banks to control. It’s not a Humpty Dumpty event, where all the Fed’s horses and all the Fed’s men can’t glue the eggshell back together. But it is an event that forces investors to wake up and prepare their portfolios for the very real systemic risks ahead.

Historic Volume Surge Forces Deutsche, Morgan Stanley To Shut Down Dark Pools

Following a historic surge in volume after the Brexit referendum, which sent bid/ask spreads soaring and led to a disorderly market at the European open, Deutsche Bank AG temporarily shut off outside market makers in its dark pool, SuperX. The bank told outside market makers that they would be prohibited from trading in SuperX on Friday, until the bank notified them it was ready to resume. Morgan Stanley’s dark pool was likewise turn "off" this morning as ATS operators scrambled to make sense of the broken market.

Stress Test 2016: Fed Says All 33 Banks Can Surive 70 VIX Without Needing Outside Capital

While hardly coming as a surprise to anyone, moments ago the Fed announced that all 33 banks have enough capital to withstand a severe economic shock, though Morgan Stanley trailed the rest of Wall Street in a key measure of leverage, Bloomberg reports. The biggest bank cleared the most severe scenario handily, with the exception of Morgan Stanley whose projected 4.9% leverage ratio tied for last place alongside a Canadian bank’s U.S. unit, falling within a percentage point of the 4 percent minimum. As a result of today's "test result" many banks will likely win regulators' approval next week to boost dividends.

The British Referendum And The Long Arm Of The Lawless

The true fear lies with those who stand to lose the most, in this case the countries who hold the Euro currency together with the thinnest of threads. As Britons head to the polling booths, they should hold their heads high, rightly insulted at the feigned notion that the UK cannot stand on its own. After all, much of the civilized world we take for granted today is rooted in the British rule of law.

Fake Jobs Plague The U.S. Economy

The long-term decline in median income, amplified in 2016 by the biggest drop in weekly earnings in history, puts the lie to the pretense of self-sustaining recovery. Average people don’t have enough discretionary income to sustain expanded economic activity.

Frontrunning: June 22

  • Nervy global investors revisit 1930s playbook (Reuters)
  • Stocks Trade Near Week High Before Brexit Vote; Commodities Gain (BBG)
  • Yellen May Face Tougher Crowd in House Appearance (WSJ)
  • In SolarCity Bid, Tesla’s Musk Targets Customers Wanting All (BBG)
  • Trump to detour from campaign to visit Scotland golf properties (Reuters)

Eerie Calm Across Markets One Day Before The Main Event: Asia, Europe, US Unchanged

There is an eerie quiet across markets, one day before the year's main risk event: with the UK referendum vote starting in less than 24 hours and results due out shortly after, it is as if even the algos have stopped frontrunning other algos, in a market so thin and illiquid even the smallest order can result in a gap, either higher or lower. As a result, European, Asian stocks and S&P futures are little changed ahead of Thursday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index swinging between gains and losses more than five times so far today.