We did not actually need confirmation that global trade is slowing to a crawl (and has in fact reversed): after all, we have been showing just that for the past year, most recently earlier this week but it is important to note that in today's negative GDP print, it was net trade (exports less imports) that subtracted -1.9% from the final GDP print, driven by a -1.03% annualized drop in exports. This was the biggest hit to US trade since thegreat financial crisis.
The most prominent market event overnight was once again the action in China's penny-index, which after tumbling at the open and briefly entering a 10% correction from the highs hit just two days ago, promptly saw the BTFDers rush in, whether retail, institutional or central bankers, and after rebounding strongly from the -3% lows, the SHCOMP closed practically unchanged following a 2% jump to complete yet another 5% intraday swing on absolutely no news, but merely concerns what the PBOC is doing with liquidity, reverse repos, margin debt, etc. Needless to say, this is one of the world's largest stock markets, not the Pink Sheets.
When we first brought the world's attention to the 330ET daily ramp in US equity markets, we were shrugged off as conspiracy wonks once again, but 2 years later - as trading activity has become increasingly focused in smaller and smaller windows during the trading day, so the mainstream media has finally been forced to admit that the US equity market has become nothing but Ebay - where everyone waits til the last second.
Amid accelerating deposit outflows and an hourly flow of conflicting headlines, Deutsche Bank is out with a fresh take on the Greek endgame including an analysis of both the political wrangling that would need to take place in order for parliamentary approval of concessions to creditors and the mechanics of a default to the IMF.
Another round of the Crisis is coming and the Powers That Be know it. This is why they’re preparing by buying up Gold bullion.
On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank agreed to a $55 million SEC settlement tied to allegations it hid billions in losses by mismarking its crisis-era derivatives book. The bank has always contended its valuation methodologies were sound. Here is the real story...
- FIFA Raided by Swiss Authorities in 2018, 2022 World Cup Probe (BBG)
- Companies Send More Cash Back to Shareholders (WSJ)
- Time Warner Cable Deal Stirs Debt Concerns (WSJ)
- Qatar $200 Billion World Cup Under More Scrutiny Amid FIFA Probe (BBG)
- Philippine, Vietnamese troops play soccer and sing on disputed island (Reuters)
- The G-7's Problem: Can the World Deal With a Greek Default? (BBG)
- SocGen Deal for Bache Illustrates Commodity-Trading Woe (WSJ)
- China’s Naval Abilities Test Asia’s Insecurities (WSJ)
"...it is imperative that the data does turnaround during 2015h2 for the recent rise in yields to be sustained. It is quite surprising to us that there is so much focus on US employment data and Fed Funds normalization to the exclusion of global trade data or US demand let alone productivity. A case perhaps of the lunatics trying to run the asylum."
"It is troubling enough to consistently grant waivers for criminal misconduct. It is an order of magnitude more troubling to refuse to enforce our own explicit requirements for such waivers. This type of recidivism and repeated criminal misconduct should lead to revocations of prior waivers, not the granting of a whole new set of waivers. We have the tools, and with the tools the responsibility, to empower those at the top of these institutions to create meaningful cultural shifts, yet we refuse to use them. I am concerned that the latest series of actions has effectively rendered criminal convictions of financial institutions largely symbolic."
- U.S. vows to continue patrols after China warns spy plane (Reuters)
- Bank of Japan Chief Cheers On Tokyo’s Surging Stocks (WSJ)
- Merkel Stamps Out Optimism on Greece After Tsipras Talks (BBG)
- Greece sees reforms deal with lenders in next 10 days (Reuters)
- Why Greece’s Syriza party is not sticking to the script on an IMF deal (Channel4)
- Why Does Putin Care Who Runs a Tiny Balkan Nation? Gas Pipelines (BBG)
- U.S. Stock-Index Futures Are Little Changed Before Yellen Speech (BBG)
- German Business Confidence Declines as Risks Cloud Outlook (BBG)
- Once-Unthinkable Criminal Pleas by U.S. Banks Get Investor ‘Meh’ (BBG)
- The E-Mail That Helped Catch Barclays: ‘ISDAfix Is Manipulated’ (BBG)
- CFTC Said Preparing ISDAfix Probe Talks in Weeks: Credit Markets (BBG)
- Islamic State takes control of Syria's Palmyra in westward advance (Reuters)
- Tensions High as Greece Gets Smallest Aid Rise Yet (BBG)
- The Rise of the $50,000 Rental (BBG)
- U.S. says South China Sea reclamations stoke instability (Reuters)
- First Hanergy Now Goldin: Hong Kong Stocks Drop Like Stones (BBG)
Futures Flat With Greece In Spotlight; UBS Reveals Rigging Settlement; Inventory Surge Grows Japan GDPSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/20/2015 07:00 -0400
The only remarkable macroeconomic news overnight was out of Japan where we got the Q1 GDP print of 2.4% coming in well above consensus of 1.6%, and higher than the 1.1% in Q4. Did it not snow in Japan this winter? Does Japan already used double, and maybe triple, "seasonally-adjusted" data? We don't know, but we do know that both Japan and Europe have grown far faster than the US in the first quarter.
- China’s Record Capital Outflows Spark Financial Stability Fears (FT)
- U.K. Inflation Falls Below Zero for First Time Since 1960 (BBG)
- Islamic State Solidifies Foothold in Libya to Expand Reach (WSJ)
- Judge sentences 11 Afghan police over lynching of woman in Kabul (Reuters)
- The $18 Trillion Global Economic Boost If Everything Went Right (BBG)
- Eurozone Prices Confirmed Flat Year-on-Year in April, Core Inflation Inches Higher (Reuters)
- Greek Finances to Stagger On Longer Than You Think (BBG)
- Athens sees EU deal soon, Greeks' approval of government stance dwindles (Reuters)
In a stunningly honest turn of events - though likely self-preserving - a number of senior financial services executives are reportedly urged authorities around the world to bolster their crisis-busting arsenals amid fears that ultra-low interest rates have increased the risks of financial instability. As The FT reports, the heads of companies including HSBC, UBS and BlackRock will on Monday release a joint statement demanding policy-makers "address emerging market inefficiencies in the financial system, such as over-exuberance within asset classes." Policy-makers must “lean against something that is making people feel good but is actually going to give them a hangover they will find difficult to cope with."
Shape Of Greek Endgame Emerges: IMF Discussed "Cyprus-Like" Plan After Tsipras Warned Of Looming DefaultSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/18/2015 09:46 -0400
The IMF discussed a "Cyrpus-like" take it or leave it solution for Greece last week, FT reports. With the countdown to outright insolvency down to two weeks, PM Tsipras will meet EU leaders in Latvia on Thursday to make one last push for a last minute deal. Meanwhile, the fate of the Greek banking sector hangs in the balance as the ECB has come under fire for the monetary financing of the Greek government.