Deutsche Bank

Frontrunning: April 21

  • World stocks gain along with oil, clock ticks down to ECB (Reuters)
  • Draghi Expected to Defend ECB in Face of German Criticism (WSJ)
  • Trump, Cruz, Kasich seek to win over Republican leaders at party meeting (Reuters)
  • Donald Trump Plans to Adopt More-Traditional Campaign Tactics (WSJ)
  • Japan, Not Germany, Leads World in Negative-Yield Bonds (BBG)

China Launches Yuan Gold Fix To "Exert More Control Over Price Of Gold"

Overnight a historic event took place when China, the world's top gold consumer, launched a yuan-denominated gold benchmark on Tuesday as had been previewed here previously in what Reuters dubbed "an ambitious step to exert more control over the pricing of the metal and boost its influence in the global bullion market."

Argentina's First Bond Issuance In 15 Years Is Already Nearly 3x Oversubscribed

Almost exactly two years ago, in April 2014, Greece issued €2.5 billion in 5 year bond yielding around 5%, which was met with huge investor interest and ended up being 8x oversubscribed. Fast forward to today when another former shutout from global bond markets, Argentina, is in the FT's words, "on the cusp of one of the most anticipated comebacks in recent history, as the Latin American country ends a 15-year exile from the international debt market with a multibillion-dollar sale." This issue is likewise oversubscribed, and according to Reuters there are already $40 billion in roders for the $15 billion offering.

Is Deutsche Bank’s Gold Manipulation The Main Scam Or Just A Side-Show?

Is Deutsche's gaming of the London precious metals fix the same thing as - or even tangentially related to - the main manipulation of the gold price, which is the practice of central banks “lending” their gold to big commercial banks, which then sell that gold on the open market to depress the price?

Futures Wipe Out Most Overnight Losses Following Dramatic Rebound In Crude

Following yesterday's OPEC "production freeze" meeting in Doha which ended in total failure, where in a seemingly last minute change of heart Saudi Arabia and specifically its deputy crown prince bin Salman revised the terms of the agreement demanding Iran participate in the freeze after all knowing well it won't, oil crashed and with it so did the strategy of jawboning for the past 2 months had been exposed for what it was: a desperate attempt to keep oil prices stable and "crush shorts" while global demand slowly picked up.  And whether it is central banks, or chronic BTFDers, just 12 hours after oil opened for trading with a loud crash, the commodity has nearly wiped out all losses, and both brent and WTI were down barely 2%, leading to both European stocks and US equity futures virtually unchanged on the session. 

What Is The Worst-Case Outcome Of Helicopter Money: Deutsche Bank Explains

"A “successful” helicopter drop may therefore be easier said than done given the non-linearities involved: it needs to be big enough for nominal growth expectations to shift higher and small enough to prevent an irreversible dis-anchoring of inflation expectations above the central bank’s target. Either way, the behavior of the latter is the key defining variable both for the policy’s success as well as the asset market reaction.... under the assumption of policy “success” without fears of hyperinflation, we would conclude that bond yields rise."

Billion Dollar Lawsuits Filed Following Deutsche Bank's Admission Of Gold, Silver Rigging

Barely a day had passed since the historic admission of gold and silver price rigging by Deutsche bank, which as we reported on Thursday was settled with not only "valuable monetary consideration", but Deutsche's "cooperation in pursuing claims" against other members of the cartel, i.e., exposing the manipulation of other cartel members, and the class action lawsuits have begun. Overnight, two class action lawsuits seeking $1 billion in damages on behalf of Canadian gold and silver investors were launched in the Ontario Superior Court of Justice.

How To Trade The Coming Helicopter Money: Deutsche Bank Explains

"At one extreme, if the market perceives the policy as a failure, credit risk and demand/supply imbalances are likely to dominate, putting even further downward pressure on yields. At the other extreme, if the policy is perceived as a loss of monetary discipline, inflation expectations would spike, leading to an aggressive re-pricing of yields higher."

Deutsche Bank Confirms Silver Market Manipulation In Legal Settlement, Agrees To Expose Other Banks

In a stunning victory for "conspiracy theorists" within the precious metals space, overnight Deutsche Bank not only agreed to settle a lawsuit accusing it of manipulating the silver fix, but also agreed to help the plaintiffs pursue similar claims against other banks as part of the settlement by providing instant messages and other communications. And so the former cartel members are turning on each other.

Bernanke's New Helicopter Money Plan - Sheer Destructive Lunacy

Bernanke has been a charlatan and intellectual lightweight all along but the gist is that the US economy is wanting for some non-existent ether called “aggregate demand”. And that this ether is something the Fed can easily create by handing an open-ended spending account to politicians, and one that would never have to be repaid or even serviced with interest! It puts you in mind of the medieval theologians who endlessly debated as to the number of angels which could fit on the head of a pin. The trouble is, there is not such thing as angels. Nor is there any such thing as economic growth or wealth that can be conjured by politicians spending Bernanke’s utterly counterfeit money.

U.S. Futures Flat After Oil Erases Overnight Losses; Dollar In The Driver's Seat

In another quiet overnight session, the biggest - and unexpected - macro news was the surprise monetary easing by Singapore which as previously reported moved to a 2008 crisis policy response when it adopted a "zero currency appreciation" stance as a result of its trade-based economy grinding to a halt. As Richard Breslow accurately put it, "If you need yet another stark example of the fantasy storytelling we amuse ourselves with, juxtapose today’s Monetary Authority of Singapore policy statement with the storyline that the Asian stock market rally intensified on renewed optimism over the global economy. Singapore is a proxy for trade and economic growth ground to a halt last quarter." The Singapore announcement led to a sharp round of regional currency weakness just as the dollar appears to have bottomed and is rapidly rising.