"... we recommend in each specific case an individual review of the economic efficiency of a physical delivery. Should an investor’s request for the handover of physical gold not have been complied with immediately in individual cases, this will be reviewed and an individual solution will be found with the client."
Paper, digital and financial proxies for gold are not real gold. Hence the importance of owning coins and bars either in one’s possession or in allocated and segregated storage in the safest vaults in the world.
After a muted end to August, September started off on the strong foot overnight following a surprising beat in China's official manufacturing PMI print, which rose above 50 to the highest level in almost two years. That, together with a record rebound in the UK PMI, bolstered investor confidence, fueling gains in stocks and industrial metals. The dollar advanced against most of its peers while bonds retreated before Friday’s payrolls report.
The August market doldrums were on display on the last day of the month as S&P futures were fractionally lower on non-existent volume, while both Europe and Asia were modestly in the green; ten-year Treasury yields headed for the biggest monthly jump in more than a year while the dhe dollar gained for a sixth day against the yen in the longest winning streak since March. European stocks advanced for a second day, adding to a monthly gain as oil trimmed its advance in the best month since April.
“They’ve tried to solve the debt crisis by printing trillions of dollars of more debt, and somehow they expect the economy to grow under the weight of those burdens. We’re just borrowing new money to pay back old money. I would say that we’re in the late stages of Ponzi finance.”
If the ERP is responsible for 92% of the S&P500 move since 2012, or just over 800 points, that would imply that central bank policies are directly responsible for approximately 40% of the "value" in the market; any moves to undo this support could result in a drop that leaves the S&P in the neighborhood of ~1,400.
What happens next may put the past 7 years of simple "financial repression" and central bank failure to shame: in a lunch address by Princeton University economist Christopher Sims, "policymakers were told that it may take a massive program, large enough even to shock taxpayers into a different, inflationary view of the future."
While not as dire as the recent analysis by Deutsche Bank, overnight JPM released its latest recession probability analysis, and - somewhat unexpectedly following the last two stellar job reports and a full court political press that the recovery has rarely been stronger going into the election - now sees a 37% chance of a recession in the next 12 months. This is the highest recession probability calculated by Jamie Dimon's bank during the current economic cycle, and matches the odds first laid out in early July.
The past several years have seen a surprising spike in professional suicides, mostly confined to the banking sector in general and Deutsche Bank in particular. Overnight this tragic group expanded into multinational corporation sector, after one the top executives at South Korea's multination conglomerate Lotte Group was found dead on Friday, in what is a suspected suicide, in what police described was a "typical case of death by hanging."