That didn’t take much. After a three-day rally, the media is back into “bullish” mode suggesting the bottom is likely in and by the end of this year, it’s all going to be just fine. Unfortunately, history suggests that after such a long unabated expansion risks are substantially higher than it has been previously. Furthermore, as I have repeated often in these missives, in an economy that is driven primarily based on consumption, and such consumption is already weak, it doesn’t take much to “flip the switch.”
Beware politicians trying to limit the ways you can conduct private economic business. It never turns out well.
Prosper Marketplace is raising the cost of loans in the face of a chaotic start to 2016. This is just the latest sign that the P2P model is starting to crack and that means the nascent ABS market for person-to-person loans may collapse in relatively short order.
Maybe because between the specter of defaulting in under three months, the threat of handing over its gold to Deutsche Bank, or the reality of rampant hyperinflation and a collapsing society, the already crushed population of Venezuela did not have enough things to worry about, moments ago Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro unveiled a double whammy of "shock and awe" when the socialist president not only announced the latest devaluation of the country's official currency, but also presented his countrymen with the first gasoline price increase since 1996.
Over a decade ago, Henry Blodgett was barred from the securities industry for promoting dot com companies which he personally though were a "piece of crap." And while nothing has changed since then, and sellsiders dutifully pump companies which deserve to be dumped, but refuse to do so over fears of ruining relationships with management - as a reminder, the only function sellside research provides to the buyside community is arranging one on one meetings with CEOs during which material inside information is often disclosed - today for the first time in years, the SEC fined and suspended a now former Deutsche Bank analyst for "not meaning what he said."
Is the reason why Deutsche Bank rushed to do Venezuela's gold swap, something which would lead to the German bank almost certainly ending up in possession of its physical gold in case of a sovereign bankruptcy, the result of this prediction for a T-minus 90 days before Venezuela's default? Find out some time in mid May.
In an unexpected twist, this time the majority of Wall Street "experts" is not only not cheering this rally on but is urging anyone who cares to listen to use it to liquidate positions; in fact thus may well be the "most hated repeat dead cat bounce ever."
So there you have it: Please no more easing, but only if easing means NIRP. As everyone has seen by now, more NIRP means a collapse in DB risk assets. But if "no more easing" means "even more QE", then go for it. And just like that we are back to square minus one, where central banks are called upon to fix the mess that central banks made, while holding banks and their flip-flopping "analysts" (and year end bonus paychecks) hostage.
As we warned yesterday - no, Deutsche Bank is not fixed...
One day after markets saw a violent return of optimism, which sent stocks around the globe and US equity futures soaring (the US was closed for President's Day) driven by terrible Japanese and Chinese economic data which in turn hinted at more central bank easing, animal spirits have cooled off despite some truly unprecedented Chinese credit numbers.
As the One Bank strips humanity bare of all its wealth, these Owners make it harder and harder for themselves to continue to hide.
"Over the past 100 years, when defaults have risen above 4%, they have typically continued to rise close to 10% (i.e. a full default cycle). This is because of the tendency for credit stress to become self-fuelling: a rise in expected defaults pushes up financing costs, which tips some marginal borrowers over the edge, further increasing defaults and so on.
Months After Welcoming 100,000 Refugees To The U.S. John Kerry Warns Migrants Pose An "Existential Threat" To EuropeSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/15/2016 17:24 -0400
We find it ironic that the person now warning about refugees posing "a near existential threat" to an entire continent, was just five months ago so very eager to welcome 100,000 Syrian refugees to the US. We wonder if his policy on accepting those same refugees with open arms has changed as of this moment... and who gets to profit this time?