Concerns about the health of the US economy and the true state of the labor market will likely mean that demand for marketplace-backed paper won’t exactly be what one would call “robust” going forward. Of course that’s a problem for lenders like SoFi, which pools its loans and sells them to free up space on the books for still more loans. But don’t worry, because SoFi - which originates billions in personal loans - has an idea...
"The demise of positive interest rates may be nothing more than the global economy reacting to a chronic oversupply of goods through the impact of globalization including the opening up of formerly closed economies as well as ongoing technological progress." - Deutsche Bank
The standoff between the “bulls” and “bears” continued this week as prices struggled to rise. The “bulls” continue to “hope” that the recent turmoil that started at the beginning of this year has come to an end. The “bears” continue to point out silly things like an ongoing earnings recession, weakening economic data, and deteriorating technicals to make their case. Silly “bears”.
- Shares bounce, euro fades after savage ECB reaction (Reuters)
- Trump's Islam comments draw attacks as Republicans discover civility (Reuters)
- Oil Prices Rise on Hopes Glut Will Ease (WSJ)
- IEA Says Oil Price May Have Bottomed as High-Cost Producers Cut (BBG)
- Why Euro-Area Inflation Will Be Low for Years, According to Draghi (BBG)
- Calmer markets, positive data prime Fed to push ahead with rate rises (Reuters)
Less than 24 hours after European stocks tumbled on initial disappointment by Draghi's announcement that rates will not be cut further, mood has changed dramatically and the result has been that after "reassessing" the ECB kitchen sink stimulus, risk has soared overnight with both Asian and European stocks surging. As of this moment European bourses are all broadly higher led by banks, with the DAX and FTSE both up over 2.7%, while the Stoxx 600 is higher by 2.3% as of this writing.
The story of the theft of $100 million from the Bangladesh central bank - by way of the New York Federal Reserve - is getting more fascinating by the day.
Is today's the most challenging central bank meeting in living memory? The reason we say this is that up until now virtually all meetings have rested on will they or won't they ease and if they do by how much? Even in a crisis central banks have generally been able to get bang for their buck by easing more than expected. However there seems to be more at stake for today's ECB get-together. It's the type of easing that matters.
- Pressure Is on Mario Draghi to Show ECB Has Tools to Boost Low Inflation (WSJ)
- Euro dips as ECB sets sights on deeper negative rates (Reuters)
- Ohio's 'dirty little secret': blue-collar Democrats for Trump (Reuters)
- Irish Economy Expanded 7.8% in 2015, Fastest Pace Since 2000 (BBG)
- Too Many Boats for Too Little Cargo Leaves Shippers High and Dry (BBG)
Global stocks and U.S. equity futures are fractionally higher (unchanged really) this morning (despite China's historic NPL debt-for-equity proposal) as traders await the main event of the day: the ECB's 1:45pm CET announcement, more importantly what Mario Draghi will announce during the 2:30pm CET press conference, and most importantly, whether he will disappoint as he did in December or finally unleash the bazooka that the market has been desperately demanding.
"Liquidity" is a lot like health insurance. You don't need it until you do.
All of life’s odds aren’t 3:2, but that’s how you’re supposed to bet, or so they say. They are not saying that so much anymore, or saying that history rhymes, or that nothing’s new under the sun. More and more 'they's seem to be figuring out that past economic and market experiences can’t be extrapolated forward - a terrifying prospect for the social and political order.
In this bipolar market, where only momentum, liquidity, technicals and short squeezes matter, as well as the occasional kneejerk reaction to a flashing red headline (usually some lie out of Venezuela or Nigeria about an imminent OPEC meeting which has not even been scheduled), one thing that no longer seems to have an impact on prices is actual news and fundamentals. So to help those who are blindly following the price of oil as an indicator of what is happening, here is a brief recap of the main news and research reports that should be impacting where oil trades today, but almost certainly won't.
- Angry White Males Propel Donald Trump—and Bernie Sanders (WSJ)
- Trump Beats Back Attacks and Tightens Hold on Primary Race (BBG)
- Fed Likely to Stand Pat on Rates, Keep Options Open for April or June (Hilsenrath)
- Draghi Stimulus Fails in Stock Market as Swings Match 2008 (BBG)
- Sabine Oil wins pipeline ruling in a blow to pipeline operators (Reuters)
"The most eye-catching of [fiscal stimulus] views is a call to deploy ‘helicopter money’, which we define as monetary financing of fiscal deficit. However, this argument is misleading. Surely this has already been implemented in many developed countries through QE. Why bring it up now despite it has been already deployed?"
Surprise! Negative rates are set to backfire in Japan as consumption likely to suffer.