Deutsche Bank

While the US bond market, if not equities, is enjoying the day off on a day in which there is no economic data just more Fed speakers including the Fed's Evans who on Friday uttered what may be the dumbest thing a central planner has ever said, the week's macro docket starts in earnest on Tuesday when China releases much anticipated September trade data. Here are the key events for the rest of the week.

On Friday we said that "it is certain that any volume reductions by Glencore will be promptly taken advantage of by Glencore's competitors, because in a global deleveraging and commodity supercycle repricing, he who cooperates while others defect, always loses the game theory."And just as expected, overnight the world's second biggest mining company, Rio Tinto, warned that it will not cut copper production, saying it would be illogical to hold back output and leave space in the market for higher-cost rivals.

Just when you thought the M&A boom is over after a surge in bond yields that Goldman has repeatedly dubbed as "recessionary", and which will make the debt cost of any funding so high that there is barely any room for execution error, moments ago as had been extensively leaked previously, private Dell announced it would acquire tech giant EMC in a deal valued roughly $67 billion, while maintaining VMWare as a publicly-traded corporation. Good luck with raising the tens of billions in debt the deal will require: our best wish to Barclays, BofA, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, RBC who will all be underwriting the required debt financing to Dell.

• BoJ minutes are due to be released on Tuesday with multiple central bank speakers on the slate to supplement the calendar
• Investment Banks are in focus as earnings season starts in full swing, with analysts looking for whether the global slowdown had an impact on results

"We believe that the path of least resistance would be to effectively ban capitalism and by-pass banking and capital markets altogether. We gave this policy change several names (such as “Cuba alternative”, “British Leyland”) but the essence of the new form of QE would be using central banks and public instrumentalities to directly inject “heroin into blood stream” rather than relying on system of incentives to drive investor behaviour."

The warnings are getting louder.  Is anybody listening?

Hot on the heels of Deutsche Bank's admission that all is not well, Credit Suisse's announcement last night of a major capital raise was greeted by buying pressure from investors. However, reality punched them in the face this morning as CS releasaed its investor day details and, as Bloomberg reports, is looking to raise up to CHF8 billion (almost 50% larger than Goldman Sachs investor survey suggested). Clearly, CS' has a much more massive capital shortfall than expected.

Investors should hope for the best while making preparations for less benign scenarios. This can be achieved by reducing leverage and speculation and having a healthy allocation to physical precious metals in the safest vaults in the world.

Last month, when King Salman arrived in Washington to a fleet of Mercedes S-Classes, we asked if, considering the current circumstances, cutting back on spending might be in order. Indeed, in the wake of Saudi Arabia's move to tap debt markets, rumors have been circulating for months that the kingdom has enlisted the help of "advisers" to help rein in the ballooning deficit. Now, Riyadh has effectively declared a spending moratorium in the face of self-inflicted crude carnage.

Not everything is "fine" in the land of European banks, in fact quite the opposite.

Like other banks, Deutsche has been caught up in the Libor-rigging scandal, and faces another investigation in Switzerland for suspected price-fixing in the precious metal market.

Gillian Tett, ourselves and many others have warned that Deutsche and its massive derivative book has the potential to be a ”European Lehman Brothers”. Is Deutsche Bank, the largest holder of Warren Buffett’s “financial weapons of mass destruction” derivatives in trouble?

• Congress probing U.S. spy agencies' possible lapses on Russia (Reuters)
• Defense Ministers From NATO Hit Out at Russian Action in Syria (WSJ)
• U.S. Rules Out Cooperation With Russia as Moscow Launches First Naval Strikes on Syria (WSJ)
• Man Who Called China's Boom and Bust Says Use This Rally to Sell (BBG)
• For Volkswagen, New Questions Arise on U.S. Injury Reporting (BBG)
• Deutsche Bank May Swell $14 Billion Selloff in China Bank Stakes (BBG)
• Emerging market slowdown hits German exports (FT)

It was supposed to be the day China's triumphantly returned to the markets from its Golden Holiday week off, and with global stocks soaring over 5% in the past 7 days, hopes were that the Shanghai Composite would close at least that much higher and then some, especially with the "National Team" cheerleading on the side and arresting any sellers. Sure enough, in early trading Chinese futures did seem willing to go with the script, and then everything fell apart when a weak Shanghai Composite open tried to stage a feeble rebound into mid-session, and then closed near the day lows even as the PBOC injected another CNY120 bn via reverse repo earlier.

Deutsche Bank warned it expects to record a third-quarter loss of $7 billion, tied to a huge write-down in its corporate-banking-and-securities segment.  The bank said the charges are driven by the impact of expected higher regulatory capital requirements and its disposal of Postbank. It also said it will consider reducing or eliminating its common dividend for fiscal 2015.

DEUTSCHE BANK SEES 3Q NET LOSS EUR 6.2 BLN
DEUTSCHE BANK TO RECOMMEND DIVIDEND CUT OR POSSIBLE ELIMINATION

"The collapse in inflation expectations tells us that the market believes the central banks, despite their monetary profligacy, are failing to prevent the western economies from turning Japanese, and thus at risk of repeating their devastating slide into outright deflation in the 1990s."