Doug Kass

Kass Warns: "The Probability Of A Flash Crash Grows Exponentially"

"...never in history have there been so many potentially adverse political, geopolitical, economic and market outcomes... Investors are probably suffering extreme mental exhaustion. Historically low volatilities and risks, coinciding with high valuations, would make anyone nervous..."

Weekend Reading: Tax Cut Wish List

"It is a simple function of math. But the following chart shows why this has likely come to the inevitable conclusion, and why tax cuts and reforms are unlikely to spur higher rates of economic growth..."

Kass: "Sell The FANGs"

"TV folks say the market is healthy without the FANG names. Of course, they said it was healthy when it was just the FANGs..."

Kass Warns: "The Scent Of Group Stink Is As Strong As In 2000 & 2007"

Golfer Tom Watson once wrote, “Sometimes thinking too much can destroy your momentum.” And most investors and traders, in a reactionary mode, seem to prefer to adopt such a strategy. But, I vividly remember the positive and incessant price momentum in early 2000 and late 2007 that appeared impossible to divert until, all at once, an important change in price trend occurred, seemingly overnight. The market consequences were ugly.

Weekend Reading: They're Baaaccckkk!

"With cash levels at the lowest level since 1997, and equity allocations near the highest levels since 1999 and 2007... investors are now functionally 'all in'..."

Weekend Reading: Harvey & The Broken Window Fallacy

"... the reality is we are very late in the current economic cycle. Just like in 2008, it was well after the fact, when the economic data was negatively revised, the recession became clearly evident. Given the deterioration is credit, the rise in delinquencies and plunge in savings rates, the economic back drop is likely far weaker than headlines currently suggest. While Harvey may extend the current cycle for a little while longer, I would not get overly complacent with highly aggressive allocation models. Like I said, there is no free lunch."

Weekend Reading: Storm Warning

"... while mainstream analysts continue to point to the “number of companies beating estimates,” can I just remind you that it took estimates being DRAMATICALLY lowered in order to achieve that goal. In fact, for the end of 2017 estimates are more than $10 LOWER than where they began. After all, we live in a society where “everyone gets a trophy”, right?"