Dow Jones Industrial Average

"There Is A General Softening In The Consumer's Ability To Pay" - Why Credit Card Companies Are Crashing

On the day in which the government reported modestly stronger than expected retail sales for the month of May, signalling a return to strength for spending and the US consumer - the driving force behind 70% of US GDP - a far more ominous statistic was revealed by credit card company Synchrony Financial, which earlier today announced in a regulatory filing that it expects write-off rates to climb 20 to 30 basis points over the next 12 months, and will increase reserves for soured loans beginning this quarter.

Futures Flat, Gold Rises On Weaker Dollar As Traders Focus On OPEC, Payrolls

After yesterday's US and UK market holidays which resulted in a session of unchanged global stocks, US futures are largely where they left off Friday, up fractionally, and just under 2,100. Bonds fell as the Federal Reserve moves closer to raising interest rates amid signs inflation is picking up. Oil headed for its longest run of monthly gains in five years, while stocks declined in Europe.

Why Management Is Incentivized To Fabricate Earnings: It's All About non-GAAP Bonuses

Fabricating non-GAAP "earnings" is not just in the best interest of shareholders, whose investments are kept afloat by borderline fraudulent adjustments, charges and addbacks. As it turns out, management teams are likewise incentivized to represent the most manipulated and egreiously embellished results as well. And worst of all: there is nothing the SEC will do about it.

Are Investors Idiots?

Statistically, the likelihood of a crash coming on any given day is small. But that is a little like telling a turkey not to worry because the likelihood of Thanksgiving is only 1 out of 365.

Breaking Down Warren Buffett's Rosy Outlook For America

There’s something about being insanely rich that people will believe every word that comes out of your mouth no matter how bizarre. As one of the richest men in the world, Warren Buffett’s opinions carry almost Biblical impact, even when they might be completely ridiculous.

Obama Admits Couldn't "Convince Americans Of Recovery", Bashes 'The Big Short'

Despite his proclamation that he "saved the world from a Great Depression," the fact is that Obama will be the first President ever to not see a single year of 3% GDP growth - but only cynical fiction-peddlers would mention facts at a time like this. In yet more legacy-defending narrative, Obama told The NYTimes today that his biggest failure was being unable to sell his success in putting the American economy back on track to the American people (no matter the actual realities) careful to blame Republicans for slowing growth "by a percentage point or two." And then in a final affront to fact, Obama dismisses the conclusion of "The Big Short" proclaiming that he reined in Wall Street, overhauled the banking system, and made water from wine "the financial system substantially more stable."

Why All Eyes Will Be On Apple's Earnings Report After The Close

Shortly after the close today, Apple will report its much watched earnings which will be closely watched for several reasons. The biggest one is that since Q1 2014 AAPL has contributed 25% of the S&P’s 4.2% growth rate (excluding the EPS benefit of the company's massive buyback program). Furthermore, roughly 40% of the nearly 9% jump in Tech margins since 2009 is attributable to Apple alone. However, that was all in the past: this quarter Apple is actually forecast to subtract 0.7% from the S&P's bottom line.

The Faith Is Gone: The Middle Class Flees The Market As Record Low Number Of Americans Own Stocks

With the Dow Jones industrial average near its record high, slightly more than half of Americans (52%) say they currently have money in the stock market, matching the lowest ownership rate in Gallup's 19-year trend. And the worst news for Yellen: "although Americans in all income groups are less likely to have stock investments now than before the Great Recession, middle-class Americans have been the most likely to flee the market"

Is Market Breadth Beginning To Sour?

The rally since February has done very little “wrong” in terms of its quality of advance. Sure, many folks would have liked to have seen more volume accompanying the move. We have pointed out some preliminary evidence of complacent or overly bullish sentiment, at least on a short-term basis. Now, we are beginning to see the until-now stellar rally breadth begin to show cracks. However, for the first time since mid-February, the breadth situation is not looking quite as sweet as it was.

About That Historic Q1 Market Rebound: 24 Of 26 Massive Snapback Rallies Occurred Within A Secular Bear Market

One thing that may be instructive about the massive Q1 reversal which saw the Dow Jones rebound off its low by the most since 1933,  is the overall investment climate in which they occur. The three prior events took place within secular bear markets. Additionally, there were 26 other quarters since 1900 which saw the DJIA recover at least 8% off its quarterly low after being down at least 10%. All but 2 of those quarters (4Q, 1987 and 4Q, 1997) occurred within a secular bear market.

As Conference Board Confidence Jumps, Gallup Confidence Dumps

A yuuge surge in stocks - amid collapsing earnings and GDP expectations - appears to have enabled a modest bounce off 2-year lows for consumer confidence. The Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence increased to 96.2 in March from 94 a month earlier - but still below January's levels. The bounce was driven purely by "hope" as expectations for the future rose and current conditions dropped to 4-month lows. At the same time Gallup's consumer confidence survey plumbes new depths to its lowest since 2015.

Markets Will Eventually Normalize - "Over The Fed's Dead Body"

See how it works? Central banks destroy the real economy with cheap money and extractive policies. Then, as the economy slumps, they need to bring their policies in line with the slumping economy. They need to swear off raising rates back to normal. And since their policies can never produce real prosperity, they can never produce an economy that can support normal interest rates. Normal? Forget it. Eventually, normal will make a comeback. But not because the Fed wants it. Instead, the markets will normalize – brutally ­– over the Fed’s dead body... which is just the way we’d like it.