Dow Jones Industrial Average

Russell Rebalance Climax - The Busiest Trading Day Of The Year

Today will almost certainly be the busiest trading day of the year, as the Russell indexes go through their annual rebalancing/reconstitution. But, as ConvergEx's Nick Colas notes, Friday’s close will be the end of a trade that began almost 2 months ago, as traders began handicapping which equities would be included for the first time or swapped between various Russell indices. Since the beginning of May, for example, the stocks that will be added to the Russell 2000 are up 11%, and those being deleted from the same index are down 2% over the same time period.  In short, for one day – and this is the day - every U.S. equity market participant, no matter what their investment mandate, needs to think like a trader.  Throw in a little Greek drama going into the weekend, and it could be quite a day...

The Worst Time In History To Be Invested In Stocks

Today will go down in history as one of the worst times in history to be invested in the stock market. Virtually no one believes this statement. That is why it will prove to be true. Every valuation method known to mankind is flashing red. A crash is baked in the cake. Will the trigger be Greek default, a Chinese market crash, a Fed rate increase, a derivative bet going boom, a Middle East event, someone doing something stupid in the South China Sea, a Ukrainian eruption, or a butterfly flapping its wings? When greed turns to fear, for whatever reason, the house of cards will collapse for the 3rd time in 15 years. Thank the “brilliant” bankers at the Federal Reserve.

Dow Divergences Reaching Historic Levels

Since 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rarely ever been so close to a 52-week high while the Dow Transports AND Dow Utilities were so close to a 6-month low. Following this kind of divergence, the median return for the DJIA and DJT was negative on all time frames, from 1 month to 1 year. Things were particularly bad – and consistently so – at the 3-month marker.

The Looming Russell Rebalance – What You Need To Know

With over $4 trillion invested in Russell index-linked products, this year’s rebalance combined with the “Will they/won’t they” Fed rate increase debate could make for an eventful start to summer.

'The Crash" Will Not Be Caused By An Event...

When people think about crashes, they tend to think about an eventas if some massive, grotesque, red, scaly, fire-breathing, razor-toothed catalyst should be obvious beforehand. But we know from history that that’s not the way it works...

Nomi Prins: The Clintons & Their Banker Friends

In the coming months, however many hours Clinton spends introducing herself to voters in small-town America, she will spend hundreds more raising money in four-star hotels and multimillion-dollar homes around the nation. The question is: "Can Clinton claim to stand for 'everyday Americans,' while hauling in huge sums of cash from the very wealthiest of us?" This much cannot be disputed: Clinton's connections to the financiers and bankers of this country - and this country's campaigns - run deep. As Nomi Prins questions, who counts more to such a candidate, the person you met over that chicken burrito bowl or the Citigroup partner you met over crudités and caviar?

Contained? Dow "Range-Bound" Streak Reaches Longest Ever

At 38 consecutive days, it is now the longest streak without the Dow hitting either a 1-month high or low in at least 100 years. That milestone alone would justify discussion, but as Dana Lyon notes, the current 1-month range in the Dow is a very tight 1.58% (the 17th narrowest 1-month range since 1990). Simply put, the bar for setting a 1-month high or low has been very low for the Dow, yet it has been unable to achieve one; but given the length and amount of the market compression, one might expect it to explode one way or another once the streak was broken.

US Economic Confidence Crashes Most Since July To Lowest Since December

Despite record-er stock prices, weather excuses for current economic weakness, and The Fed promising that growth is here and everything will be awesome, it appears the message has not reached the US Consumer. Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index plunged 9 points last week (the largest week-to-week drop since last July) to its lowest weekly score since December. The main driver was a collapse of hope as 'outlook' fell to November lows.

Buyback Bonanza, Margin Madness Behind US Equity Rally

Morgan Stanley breaks down the buyback-equity rally relationship while WSJ flags "big borrowing" by both corporations and investors. In short: corporate debt issuance is at record levels and so are buybacks, stock prices, and margin accounts. When the cycle finally turns, look out below. 

The Next Time Someone Says "Buy Stocks", Show Them This Chart

The next time some financial pundit tells you to buy stocks, show them this chart. It’s an incredibly interesting take on not only how expensive stocks are right now, but also how the monetary system has left the average guy behind.

Frontrunning: April 22

  • Because it just gets funnier: UK speed trader arrested over role in 2010 'flash crash' (Reuters)
  • ... and funnier: Mystery Trader Armed With Algorithms Rewrites Flash Crash Story (BBG)
  • Presidential hopeful Rubio reaches out to gay Republicans (Reuters)
  • Varoufakis Sees Differences Narrowing in Creditor Talks (BBG)
  • China Debt Mess Brings Out the Yin and Yang in Policy Makers (BBG)
  • Hedge Fund That Made 18% on Dollar Strength Now Bets on Drop (BBG)
  • Whistleblower Jim Marchese Scores Millions in Payout—Again (WSJ)
  • Release of Benghazi Report on Hillary Clinton Likely Pushed to Election Season (BBG)

Apple Unveils World-Changing Wrist-Band - Live Feed

Judging by the euphoric exaggeration and fanboyism on mainstream media this morning, today's Apple Watch (not iWatch, definitely not iWatch) unveiling promises to be "world-changing" for the 'wearables' industry (as well as numerous "first time ever..." comments). Of course, there are 'watches' on the market already, but as Reuters Jason Fields 'jokes', the Apple Watch, of course, does more. The face is high resolution and in color. It even has apps that allow you to do a few of the things you’d be able to do if only you could muster the strength to dig your hand into the front pocket of your jeans, or do a little digging in your handbag.