• 12/23/2014 - 13:41
    The system itself is completely corrupt and thoroughly rigged folks. What started as the totalitarian tiptoe has now turned into an extremely dangerous crony capitalist state.

Dumb Money

thetechnicaltake's picture

Weekly Sentiment Report: The Price Cycle





In essence, you need to be selling strength.

 
thetechnicaltake's picture

Weekly Sentiment Report: Is This the End?





The "Mixed Signals" from 2 weeks ago, which morphed into last week's clues, must mean something this week as the markets had their worse day in 7 months on Friday.

 
thetechnicaltake's picture

Weekly Sentiment Report: Searching for Clues





At these levels of bullish sentiment, fewer bulls isn't a contrarian signal but a sign that there are fewer investors willing to push the market higher.

 
thetechnicaltake's picture

Weekly Sentiment Report: It's Just a Number





That's the conundrum investors must face if they want in to this market now.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: December 31





  • Firms to Face new Rules Over Pay, Taxes (WSJ)
  • US to test commercial drones at six sites (CNN)
  • China’s Local Debt Swells to 17.9 Trillion Yuan in Audit (BBG) - which is about 2 trillion less than where it actually is (Reuters)
  • Fears after key China debt level soars 70% (FT) and in reality the debt level is saoring far more
  • Pot Shops in Denver Open Door to $578 Million in Sales (BBG)
  • China Says It Will Shun Abe After Shrine Visit (WSJ)
  • De Blasio Taking Office Citing Wealth Gap as Crime Falls (BBG)
  • China Approves $353 Million of Share Sales as IPOs Resume (BBG)
  • Obama Seeks Way to Right His Ship (WSJ)
  • Netflix Tests Subscription Fees Based on Number of Account Users (BBG)
  • Three big macro questions for 2014  (FT)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Fund Of Funds Implosion Forces Conversion Of Ever More Hedge Funds Into "Long-Onlies"





In a world in which the Chief Risk Officer of the formerly free capital markets, Ben Bernanke, has made any downside hedges obsolete (and as a result hedge funds have posted 5 years of returns without outperforming the S&P500), the first casualty has emerged: fund of funds. These parasitic, fee-soaking institutions, which merely collect a fee on top of the fees already charged by hedge funds, are rapidly on their way to extinction as the following charts from Eurekahedge prove conclusively. Naturally, the FOF industry which generates massive fees for its "value adding" managers, will not go down without a fight. And as Pensions and Investment reports, the FOFs have found a way to strike back: convert hedge funds into long only, idiot money, and we do enjoy the irony that in this centrally-planned market the idiot money is outperforming the smart, nimble asset managers by orders of magnitude.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Is The Perfect Storm Coming For Gold?





Due to western central bank price manipulation, the mining sector is in critical condition, the supply line is all but halted, and the physical supply is being swallowed up by Asia. The last shoe to drop is for major mining companies to start closing down production at major mines. Though this would be perceived as the end for gold, speculators will be happy to know that this would be the beginning of the biggest Fed induced bubble in history! But unlike previous Fed bubbles where they support the price increase, the gold bubble will be a result of western central planners mis-managing the gold price for the past 3 decades and finally losing control. As Peak Resources explains in the brief clip, the perfect storm is coming for gold...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Big Institutions Bet "All In" On Small Caps





To many institutional investors, buying the Russell 2000 is merely the highly levered bet with which the bulk of institutions (recall that almost all hedge funds, and a majority of mutual funds, are underperforming the S&P for a 5th consecutive year) seek to make up for losses in their portfolios by chasing high (and even higher with leverage) beta.  Which is why as the next chart below shows, in a furious scramble to catch up by year end, the institutional Russell net futures (i.e. levered) positioning just hit a record high: the biggest investors are now all-in the smallest names.  So is the massively overbought small cap sector due for a correction? With these manipulated, centrally-planned markets, nobody has any idea. However, for those who have once again bet all in, which just happens to be most plain vanilla dumb money, it may be time to reevaluate.

 
GoldCore's picture

China's Gold Reserves At Least 2.5 Times Higher Than Reported, ‘De-Americanisation’ Continues





Already, the Chinese have stopped accumulating dollars - preferring safer currencies, infrastructure, hard assets and commodities and of course gold. Even a small amount of Chinese selling  could lead to substantial dollar weakness and much higher bond yields plummeting the U.S. into another recession.

 
Asia Confidential's picture

Why Institutional Money Is Often Dumb Money





Hong Kong's richest are busy offloading local assets which institutions are happy to buy. It's exhibit A why institutional money often represents dumb money. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Smartest Money Has Two Words Of Advice: "Sell Now" (And Is Doing Just That)





Yesterday, in the aftermath of first Apollo then Blackstone, it was the turn of that third mega Private Equity shop, Fortress, to "say that now is the time to exit investments as stocks rally and interest rates start to rise. "This is a better time for selling our existing investments than making new investments," Pete Briger, who oversee the New York-based firm's $12.5 billion business said on a call with investors yesterday. "There’s been more uncertainty that’s been fed into the markets." Ironically, this is precisely the opposite of what one will hear on the mainstream media, but such is life: for every smart money seller, there must be a willing sheep led to the slaughter.

 
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