Economic Calendar

Key Events In The Coming Weeks: Italy Aftermath, ECB, ISM, Consumer Confidence

The key economic releases this week are ISM non-manufacturing on Monday and University of Michigan consumer sentiment index on Friday. Away from the US economic calendar, initially focus will be on the Italian referendum result, which appears to have been mostly digested by the market as bullish. It will then shift quickly to a critical ECB meeting.

BOJ "Fires Warning At Bond Market" Sending Global Yields, Dollar Lower; All Eyes On Yellen

Global bond yields and the dollar both weakened after the Bank of Japan offered to buy an unlimited amount of debt at fixed yields, stabilizing the global bond rout, while investors awaited testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that will help shape the outlook for interest rates ahead of a December rate hike that is now seen as near certain.

Markets In Turmoil: Global Bond Bloodbath, Currency Rout Accelerates As Stocks Erase Early Gains

Monday started off where Friday left off, with the dollar surge continuing, pushing the DXY above 100 for the first time since December, global bond yields soaring, emerging market currencies tumbling, and the Yuan slammed below 6.85 for the first time. However, where Monday is different is that while European stocks and US index futures started off far higher, E-minis have now faded the entire overnight rally and are now red for the session, on concerns that the spike in yields will cap any more stock upside.

Tumbling Dollar Sends USDJPY Under 100, Oil Over $46 As Gold Spikes; Futures Flat

Overnight, John Williams' latest uberdovish paper "Monetary Policy in a Low R-star World", which we profiled yesterday, and which suggests lower rates for far longer, made the rounds and has led to a steep 0.8% drop in the Bloomberg Dollar spot Index, which sank to its weakest since June while the yen strengthened 1.2 percent, slipping briefly below 100 against the greenback for the first time since June 24, pushing oil and gold higher, and Asian shares lower.

US Futures Unchanged As Europe Stocks Rise; Strong Dollar Pressures Oil

There has been little notable market moves overnight, with the record rally in the S&P500 set to continue and European stocks climbing as German IFO business confidence proved more resilient than economists predicted in the month after Britain voted to leave the European Union, falling less than expected from 108.7 to 108.3, above the 107.5 consensus, with expectations printing at 102.2 above the 101.2 expected. Bonds fell with gold as the dollar gained before central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan this week.

Global Markets Flat, Coiled Ahead Of Today's Risk Events: OPEC And The ECB

There are just two drivers setting the pace for today's risk mood: the OPEC meeting in Vienna which started a few hours ago, and the ECB's announcement as well as Mario Draghi's press statement due out just one hour from now. Both are expected to not reveal any major surprises, with OPEC almost certainly unable to implement a production freeze while the ECB is expected to remain on hold and provide some more details on its corporate bond buying program, although there is some modest risk of upside surprise in either case.

Futures Flat, Gold Rises On Weaker Dollar As Traders Focus On OPEC, Payrolls

After yesterday's US and UK market holidays which resulted in a session of unchanged global stocks, US futures are largely where they left off Friday, up fractionally, and just under 2,100. Bonds fell as the Federal Reserve moves closer to raising interest rates amid signs inflation is picking up. Oil headed for its longest run of monthly gains in five years, while stocks declined in Europe.

Key Events In The Coming Week

Following last week's lull in global macro, it’s a busy start to the week in which we get the latest deluge of global flash PMIs, while the US economic calendar is loaded with New Home Sales data, Trade Balance, Initial Claims, UMichigan sentiment and the revised US Q1 GDP print on Friday. But perhaps the most expected event will be Yellen's speech on Friday at Harvard's Radcliffe, where the Fed chairman is expected to reveal some more hints on the upcoming rate hike.

Futures Wipe Out Most Overnight Losses Following Dramatic Rebound In Crude

Following yesterday's OPEC "production freeze" meeting in Doha which ended in total failure, where in a seemingly last minute change of heart Saudi Arabia and specifically its deputy crown prince bin Salman revised the terms of the agreement demanding Iran participate in the freeze after all knowing well it won't, oil crashed and with it so did the strategy of jawboning for the past 2 months had been exposed for what it was: a desperate attempt to keep oil prices stable and "crush shorts" while global demand slowly picked up.  And whether it is central banks, or chronic BTFDers, just 12 hours after oil opened for trading with a loud crash, the commodity has nearly wiped out all losses, and both brent and WTI were down barely 2%, leading to both European stocks and US equity futures virtually unchanged on the session. 

U.S. Futures Jump In Tandem With Soaring Italian Banks On Hopes Of Government Bailout

it has been a rather quiet session, which saw Japan modestly lower dragged again by a lower USDJPY which hit fresh 17 month lows around 170.6 before staging another modest rebound and halting a six-day run of gains; China bounced after a slightly disappointing CPI print gave hope there is more space for the PBOC to ease; European equities rose, led by Italian banks which surged ahead of a meeting to discuss the rescue of various insolvent Italian banks, while mining stocks jumped buoyed by rising metal prices with signs of a pick-up in Chinese industrial demand.

"Risk Off" - Global Stocks Slide As Yen Surges To 17 Month High; Bund Yields Plunge

The market's slumberous levitation of the past month, in which yesterday's -0.3% drop was the second largest in 4 weeks and in which the market had gone for 15 consecutive days without a 1% S&P 500 move (in March 2015 the sasme streak ended at day 16) may be about to end, after an overnight session, the polar opposite of yesterday's smooth sailing, which has seen a sudden return of global risk off mood.

"Good" News Is Bad Again? Commodity Carnage Continues Post-Payrolls

It appears Goldman clients are once again taking a bath. Having proposed that with monetary concerns temporarily sidelined, "good news should be good news for risky assets," today's better-than-expected jobs print (following China's better than expected PMIs) has sent stocks lower, bonds higher, and crack gold and oil...

Goldman Admits It Was Wrong About The "Yellen Call": Offers Test To Check If It Is Finally Right

"In our “Top 10 market themes for 2016”, we argued that the ‘Bernanke put’ might gradually be replaced by the ‘Yellen call’. Recall, the ‘Bernanke put’ was the idea that meaningful declines in market sentiment would be met with aggressive monetary action, thus providing a buffer to downside risk. Our notion of the ‘Yellen call’ was the converse of this – that with labor markets approaching full employment and core PCE inflation rising towards target, meaningful rallies in market sentiment would likely be met with a more robust withdrawal of policy accommodation.... It hasn’t happened."

On Opex Day, It's All About The Dollar: Futures, Oil Levitate As USD Weakness Persists

It may be option expiration day (always leading to abnormal market activity) but it remains all about the weak dollar, which after crashing in the two days after the Fed's surprisingly dovish statement has put both the ECB and the BOJ in the very awkward position that shortly after both banks have drastically eased, the Euro and the Yen are now trading stronger relative to the dollar versus prior. As DB puts it, "the US Dollar has tumbled in a fairly impressive fashion since the FOMC on Wednesday with the Dollar spot index now down the most over a two-day period since 2009" which naturally hurts those countries who have been rushing to debase their own currencies against the USD.