Economic Calendar

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Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: August 1





Markets reacted positively to news that the White House and senior Congressional leadership had agreed, in principle, a deal to raise the US debt ceiling, which provided support to European equities, and weighed on Bunds, whereas the Eurozone peripheral 10-year government bond yield spreads narrowed across the board. A renewed appetite for risk provided strength to WTI and Brent crude futures, and spot Gold prices came under pressure. Elsewhere, commodity-linked currencies, including AUD, NZD and CAD, remained the prominent beneficiaries at the cost of safe-haven currencies, such as CHF, JPY and USD. In other forex news, GBP came under extensive pressure after manufacturing PMI data from the UK demonstrated a contraction, and reached its lowest level since Jun'09. Moving into the North American open, the economic calendar remains thin, however markets look ahead to the ISM manufacturing data from the US. With regards to the US debt debate, focus now shifts to whether the US debt ceiling deal can go through the House and Senate before an August 2nd deadline, and any reaction from major rating agencies pertaining to US's sovereign ratings.

 


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Frontrunning: August 1





Debt-Limit Deal to Get Congress Vote Today (Bloomberg)
Debt compromise favours Republican demands (FT)
An Agreement Is Struck, but the Deficit Isn't Solved (WSJ)
Hedge fund firm Lansdowne sells Goldman stake (Reuters)
China’s Official PMI Falls (WSJ)
Asia’s Economic ‘Soft Patch’ Jars With Inflation, Posing Dilemma on Rates (Bloomberg)
Lagarde Warns EU to Speak with one Voice (FT)
An Uncomfortable Final Stretch for Trichet (FT)

 


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Frontrunning: July 28





  • Fed under Fire over Default Talks (FT)
  • Debt-Crisis Vote Goes Down to Wire in House (WSJ)
  • U.S. Rating Rests On S&P’s View of Washington (Bloomberg)
  • Why the Debt Crisis Is Even Worse Than You Think (BusinessWeek)
  • Japan's Industry Set for Rebound (WSJ)
  • Warren Buffett Is Wrong On Taxes (WSJ)
  • After the debt-ceiling standoff is resolved (blogger extraordinarie Maddy El-Erian)
  • Banks Bracing for Downgrade See Little Panic (Bloomberg)
  • China Regulator Targets Nonbank Entities (WSJ)
  • How to Cut Taxes, Boost Revenue (RCM)
 


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Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: July 25





Despite frantic efforts to reach an agreement to raise the US debt ceiling, no concrete measures emerged during the weekend, which allied with Moody's downgrade of Greece's sovereign rating by three notches today, promoted risk-aversion in the market. European equities traded under pressure, weighed upon by financials, which in turn provided support to Bunds, whereas the Eurozone peripheral 10-year government bond yield spreads widened across the board. Particular widening was observed in the Belgian/German spread leading up to the bond auctions from Belgium, however the spread narrowed somewhat after they went through successfully. Elsewhere, CHF and JPY emerged as major beneficiaries of the risk-averse trade, whereas commodity-linked currencies traded lower. Moving into the North American open, the economic calendar remains thin, however Chicago Fed National Activity and Dallas Fed Manufacturing reports are scheduled for later in the session. Also, Texas Instruments, and Anadarko Petroleum are among some of the companies reporting their corporate earnings today.

 


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Frontrunning: July 19





  • Moody's suggests U.S. eliminate debt ceiling (Reuters)
  • ECB weighing eurozone default options (FT)
  • Debt Deal Search Intensifies (WSJ)
  • Obama struggles to get Wall Street funding (FT)
  • Euro Zone Sees 3 Options For Private Role in Greece (Reuters)
  • Germany Says It's Confident EU to Reach Agreement on Second Greek Bailout (Bloomberg)
  • ECB's Mersch-Inflation risks to upside, eyeing developments‎ (Reuters)
  • Lockhart: Fed could keep rates low "much longer" (Reuters)
  • Greece Seeks Advisers for Privatization (WSJ) - there's always Goldman
 


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Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: July 17





The picture portrayed by last week’s EBA’s stress test results on the European banks failed to re-ignite appetite for risk today, as many market participants questioned the validity of the tests, which ignored a potential Greek default scenario. Moreover, markets remained apprehensive about any concrete outcome from the Eurozone leaders’ summit this Thursday, and together with concern surrounding the successful passage of a raft of supply from Eurozone countries, such as Spain, later this week promoted risk-aversion. This prompted European equities to trade under pressure, led by financials, whereas marginal widening was observed in the Eurozone peripheral 10-year government bond yield spreads. Elsewhere, strength in the USD-index weighed upon EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and commodity-linked currencies. Moving into the North American open, the economic calendar remains thin, however the TIC flows data and NAHB housing market report from the US are due later in the session. Markets also look ahead to corporate earning results from IBM, whereas in fixed-income, French T-Bill auctions are scheduled for later.

 


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Frontrunning: July 17





  • Reid, McConnell Push Revised Debt Measure as Obama Seeks to Avoid Default (Bloomberg)
  • Fallback plan gains momentum in debt talks (RTRS)... aka the "change nothing" plan, and raise debt ceiling by $2.5 trillion
  • China house price inflation slows in June (FT)
  • Riksbank Members Fear Greek Failure Could Spark Real Crisis (Market News)
  • European Stocks Retreat for Third Day After Bank Stress Tests (Bloomberg)
  • ECB would reject defaulted Greek bonds as collateral (RTRS)
  • Greek debt cut won't solve problem - ECB's Weidmann (RTRS)
  • An Arrest and Scotland Yard Resignation Roil Britain (NYT)
  • Japan set to ban Fukushima cattle shipments after radioactive meat scare (Guardian)
  • Spain and Italy top results in stress tests (FT)
 


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Frontrunning: July 14





  • European Leaders Delay Summit Meeting Over Greece (NYT)
  • Tensions Escalate as Stakes Grow in Fiscal Clash (NYT)
  • China Growth Suggests Tightening Ahead (WSJ)
  • Banks, Regulators Still Jostling Over EU Stress Tests (WSJ)
  • Obama and lawmakers face fresh doubts on debt deal (Reuters)
  • Italy money supply plunge flashes red warning signals (Telegraph)
  • ECB: Greek Debt Outcome Depends Mainly On Greek Government (Market News)
  • Helaba pulls out of European stress tests (FT)
  • India Says All ‘Hostile’ Groups Are Suspects After Mumbai Blasts Kill 17 (Bloomberg)
  • Greece PM says second bailout needed urgently (Reuters)
 


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Frontrunning: July 12





  • Markets rocked as debt crisis deepens (FT)
  • EU Revives Buyback Idea as Crisis Hits Italy (Bloomberg)
  • Italy Fears Jolt Markets (WSJ)
  • U.K. Inflation Slows in June on Spending (Bloomberg)
  • China Money Supply Growth, New Lending Rebound Even After Cooling Measures (Bloomberg)
  • Foreign-Exchange Reserves Jump in China (WSJ)
  • Corn Slides for Second Day as USDA May Raise Global Inventories Forecast (Bloomberg)
 


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Today's Economic Data Docket - US Trade Deficit, FOMC Minutes, 1 Month And 3 Year Bond Auctions





Busy economic calendar with two notable bond auctions out of the US Treasury.

 


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Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: July 11





Risk-aversion remained the dominant theme during the European session, as lack-lustre economic data from the US last week, and China, during the weekend, weighed on market sentiment. Allied to that, the ongoing contagion fears in the Eurozone dented the appetite for risk-among investors. European equities traded lower throughout the session, with particular weakness seen in financials, which was also reflected in the Italian FTSE MIB and Spanish IBEX 35 indices underperforming their European peers. Weak equities provided support to Bunds, whereas general widening was observed in the Eurozone peripheral 10-year government bond yield spreads. European sovereign concerns together with strength in the USD-Index weighed upon EUR/USD and GBP/USD, whereas safe-haven currencies including JPY and CHF received a boost. Elsewhere, WTI and Brent crude futures traded under pressure weighed upon by a strong USD as well as diminishing hopes of a sustainable economic recovery.

 


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Frontrunning: July 6





  • BofA's Mortgage-Bond Pact Draws Challenge (WSJ)
  • Greek Rescue Snarled by Sales (WSJ)
  • Portuguese downgrade darkens euro zone rescue hopes (Reuters)
  • Rare-Earth Prices Decline in China (WSJ)
  • Geithner has not told Obama he wants to go (Reuters)
  • Bless this mess: AGs, banks near $60B deal on foreclosures (NY Post)
  • Orszag: Why We Care About Price of Water in China (Bloomberg)
  • How America Ceded Capitalism’s Bastion to German Boerse (Bloomberg)
 


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Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: July 5





Markets witnessed risk-averse sentiment in early European trade partly on the back of comments from Moody's that China's local government debt may be USD 540bln larger than auditors estimated, which could endanger Chinese banks' credit ratings. Lower than expected services PMI data from China, and core Eurozone countries dented risk-appetite further, which in turn resulted in weakness in EUR and equities. However, as the session progressed equities gradually came off their earlier lows, and the oil & gas sector received some support after the UK Treasury announced tax support for North Sea oil companies. Elsewhere, GBP/USD gained strength following better than expected services PMI data from the UK. Moving forward, the economic calendar remains thin, however markets look ahead to economic data from the US in the form of durable goods revision and factory orders figures.

 


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Frontrunning: July 1





  • Strauss-Kahn Case Seen as in Jeopardy (NYT)... yes, the soap opera is back.... although don't expect Lagarde to hand the keys back to DSK - after all the mission has been accomplished. Though president DSK would be a shoo in if cleared of all charges.
  • China Salutes 90 Years of Communism (WSJ)... US salutes nearly 100 year of Federal Reserve central planning
  • Obama Pushes for a Deficit Deal by July 22 (FT)
  • China manufacturing at lowest in 2 years (FT)
  • German Banks Agree to Greek Aid Deal (WSJ)
  • Ex-Goldman director Gupta SEC Case Postponed Indefinitely (Fin Alternatives)
  • Greek, Italian Bonds Lead Peripheral Rebound as Default Concern Ebbs (Bloomberg)
  • Republicans boycott trade vote (FT)
  • Obama Pushes for a Deficit Deal by July 22 (FT)
 


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Frontrunning: June 30





  • Rice Supplies Tightening in China May Increase Imports, Bolster Inflation (Bloomberg)
  • IMF warns US of global debt ‘shock’ (FT)
  • China may widen yuan trading band soon-Bank of China (Reuters)
  • Italy May Raise Trading Tax (WSJ)
  • Deutsche Bank warns on voluntary rollover (FT)
  • GOP wants Senate to cancel vacation (Washington Times)
  • As QE2 ends, market debates Fed's next move (Reuters)
  • Greek parliament expected to endorse second bill (Reuters)
  • Appeals Court Says Health Law Is Constitutional (WSJ)
 


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