El Nino

• Obama, wiping tears, makes new push to tighten gun rules (Reuters)
• Global stocks hit by China worries, North Korea nuclear test (Reuters)
• Oil hits 11-year low, Saudi-Iran row cuts chances of output restraint (Reuters)
• North Korea says successfully conducts first H-bomb test (Reuters)
• Valeant Planning to Appoint New Leader as CEO Remains Hospitalized (WSJ)
• Treasuries Extend 2016 Winning Start With Growth Outlook Clouded (BBG)

It didn't take long for the momentum-chasing fundamental strategists to readjust their immediate stock price targets on the heels of the i) failure of the Santa Rally and ii) the worst start to the year in Chinese stock market history.  Case in point, moments ago JPM's equity strategy team released its first note for the year in which it says that "we take the view that equities are unlikely to perform well on a 12-24 month horizon" adding that "the regime of buying the dips might be over and selling any rallies might be the new one."

"I want to add my voice in support of Muslims in our community and around the world... If you're a Muslim in this community, as the leader of Facebook I want you to know that you are always welcome here and that we will fight to protect your rights and create a peaceful and safe environment for you."

While so much hope is pinned on El Nino relieving California's drought in early 2016, climatologists suggest tempering that optimism a little as what is really needed is snow. "Since it has been dry for so long, people get excited,” says one hydrologist, but, as Bloomberg reports, without snow "the notion of fully recovering from the drought is extremely unlikely,” as if the storms come in as rain, or the mountain snow can’t pile up high enough, a lot of water will be lost.

It's that time of year again...

Just three weeks ago we warned of "all kinds of mayhem" about to be let loose as scientists feared this year's El Nino may be among the biggest ever, and as Bloomberg reports, the impact is already being felt in California... but not in much needed rain or snow. California has yet to see the full force of El Nino, and it’s already tripping up the state’s power-demand forecasters. The state saw "significant" electricity price spikes in the third quarter as El Nino made it difficult to predict how much power would be needed with a "relatively high percentage of intervals" when prices spiked above $1,000 a megawatt-hour in the 5-minute market... 25 times normal costs!

• Security jitters drive European investors back to safe havens (Reuters)
• Global Anti-ISIS Alliance Begins to Emerge (WSJ)
• Merkel says cancelling soccer match was 'responsible' decision (Reuters)
• Paris attacker may have had accomplice on journey through Balkans (Reuters)
• Drop Assad demands if you want to unite against Islamic State: Russia to West (Reuters)
• Putin sets up commission to combat terrorism financing (Reuters)

-If you're thinking of buying that dream house on the ocean in the Sunbelt, wait a year - there will be some bargains. If you're a seller - call the broker soon....

There's been no shortage of discussion about the weather among economists this year as "snow in the winter" took the blame for a bevy of bad data in H1 while summer is Citi's new scapgoat for any weakness in August and September payrolls. Meanwhile, unseasonably mild temps took the fall for poor October retail sales and now, going into the winter, it's all about El Nino.

Two biggest move overnight came from everyone's favorite carry pair, the USDJPY, which may have finally read what we said yesterday, namely that with the Fed and ECB both doing its job, there is little need for the Bank of Japan to repeat its Halloween massacre for the second year in a row, and as a result will keep its QQE program unchanged. It promptly tumbled from its 121 tractor level, to just above 120.25, where BOJ bids were said to be found. With the FOMC October meeting starting today, the other overnight catalyst was not surprisingly the latest Hilsenrath scribe in which he removed any uncertainty about a Wednesday hike, "leaving mid-December as the central bank’s last chance to raise rates this year."

September was officially the warmest ever recorded around the globe (the 7th time this year a month has set a record) as El nino is back in a big way. As Bloomberg reports, its effects are just beginning in much of the world -- for the most part, it hasn’t really reached North America -- and yet it’s already shaping up potentially as one of the three strongest El Nino patterns since record-keeping began in 1950.  Expect "major disruptions, widespread droughts and floods," warned a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, adding that without preparation, "all kinds of mayhem will let loose." The last time there was an El Nino of similar magnitude to the current one, the record-setting event of 1997-1998, floods, fires, droughts and other calamities killed at least 30,000 people and caused $100 billion in damage.

• ECB Haunted by Paradox as Draghi Weighs Risk of QE Signaling (BBG)
• At odds with Republicans, Hillary Clinton to testify on Benghazi (Reuters)
• House tees up conservative plans to raise debt limit (Hill)
• U.S., Russia to Meet at Syria Conference to Discuss Crisis (WSJ)
• Putin Gains Record Support Among Russians Over Syria, Poll Shows (BBG)
• China Plans 2020 Deadline for Dismantling Capital Controls (BBG)
• Nyrstar Drops the Most on Record as Mining Hit by Metal Rout (BBG)

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