The cries for going totally crazy are growing louder... the lunatics are running the asylum. One shouldn’t underestimate what they are capable of. The only consolation is that the day will come when the monetary cranks will be discredited again (for the umpteenth time). Thereafter it will presumably take a few decades before these ideas will rear their head again (like an especially sturdy weed, the idea that inflationism can promote prosperity seems nigh ineradicable in the long term – it always rises from the ashes again). The bad news is that many of us will probably still be around when the bill for these idiocies will be presented.
How many banks (and other companies) are doing the Enron thing? Many more than you would be led to believe, for now it's legal. Simple proof that this will end even prettier than Enron.
Moments ago VRX stock flash crashed on news CVS had just terminated Philidor from its Caremark PBM network: CVS CITES 'NONCOMPLIANCE' W/ PROVIDER PACT ON PHILIDOR; CVS MOVE BASED ON RECENT AUDITS OF PHILIDOR, DJ SAYS
If the Valeant fiasco evaporates and the company is found to have done nothing wrong, this chart will be promptly forgotten. If, however, the government decides to crackdown on Valeant, and ends up wiping out the company, the above chart will be known as nothing less than the first draft of Valeant's "Enron" orgchart.
- ECB Haunted by Paradox as Draghi Weighs Risk of QE Signaling (BBG)
- At odds with Republicans, Hillary Clinton to testify on Benghazi (Reuters)
- House tees up conservative plans to raise debt limit (Hill)
- U.S., Russia to Meet at Syria Conference to Discuss Crisis (WSJ)
- Putin Gains Record Support Among Russians Over Syria, Poll Shows (BBG)
- China Plans 2020 Deadline for Dismantling Capital Controls (BBG)
- Nyrstar Drops the Most on Record as Mining Hit by Metal Rout (BBG)
After yesterday's dramatic late day market rout catalyzed by the tumble in the biotech sector in general, and Valeant in particular, and foreseen in its entirety by Gartman who went bullish just hours before, this morning US equity futures and European stocks have recouped some losses on the recursive, and traditional, hope that Mario Draghi will say something to push risk higher when he speaks in 2 hours at the ECB's press conference in Malta. And yet, just like Yellen a month ago, Draghi faces the paradox of reflexivity that after years of being ignored, is the "new thing" in town: how does he intervene and demonstrate he is readier than ever to set up stimulus, without panicking investors over euro area’s health.
Companies used to build things. Not because they were noble, but because they had no other choice. Selling snake oil simply wasn't possible on a large scale, for a long time; in the previous economy. Now, like during the dot com boom, all you need is a phone, a website, and a power point machine. Actual sales, or an actual product, it's so 80's.
With default risk soaring, and Ackman's dreams dissolving, Valeant Pharma is crashing again today (halted three times and down over 28%) following a report by Citron Research that claims to have a "smoking gun" on the company's activities, claiming Valeant is using pharmacies related to Philidor to store inventory and record the transactions as sales.
The American people accept the persecution of truth-tellers, because they have been brainwashed into believing that patriotism means defense of the government no matter what. As truth is so unfavorable to Washington, Americans believe that it must not be revealed, and if revealed, covered up, and those who reveal truth must be punished. A country with such a population as this is a police state, not a free country.
"The market does not appear to be discounting negative knock-on effects. The outcome for recall costs and fines is unclear and largely depends on the engine performance post repair," said a Credit Suisse analyst in its report on the scandal. Estimates from Credit Suisse peg the costs of Dieselgate at a worst-case scenarios of $87 billion. This would make the VW scandal could be even bigger than Enron Scandal and BP Deepwater Scandal combined.
The market is prone to temporary fits of shared enthusiasm – for emerging-market debt, for Internet stocks, for residential mortgage-backed securities, for Greek government debt. Traders need not wait to see when or whether the profits materialize. IBGYBG, they say – I’ll be gone, you’ll be gone. There are numerous routes to bezzle and febezzle... traders borrowed money from the future. And then the future came, as it always does, turning the bezzle into a bummer.
And now the real shocker: there is over US$100bn in gross financial exposure to Glencore. From BofA: "We estimate the financial system's exposure to Glencore at over US$100bn, and believe a significant majority is unsecured. The group's strong reputation meant that the buildup of these exposures went largely without comment. However, the recent widening in GLEN debt spreads indicates the exposure is now coming into investor focus."
As the following org chart of Glencore shows, the company - at least on the surface - appears to be far "simpler" than Enron was in the days preceding its biggest, for the time, and quite unexpected, bankruptcy.
In a recent appearance before Congress, Deputy Attorney General Sally Quillian Yates declared that the US Department of Justice is going to ratchet up its prosecution of individuals employed in corporations as part of a larger push against “white collar crime.” Within the next year, we should expect to see mid-level business and finance executives doing “perp walks” in front of the news media, as federal prosecutors will charge them with various “economic crimes” in hopes that they will implicate their superiors. All of us by now know the drill and in a time of anemic economic growth complete with business failures, it won’t be hard to find scapegoats.
"It’s like a pig on LSD. You don’t know which way it’s going to run"...