Equity Markets

Initial Jobless Claims Soar Most In 2 Years Following Trump Election

In the two weeks since Donald Trump was elected, initial jobless claims have soared by over 35,000 (or over 15%) to 5-month highs. This is the biggest two-week rise since December 2014 and is entirely against the exuberant narrative being spun by US equity markets. One can't help but wonder what the sudden 'odd' collapse to 43 yeasr lows right into the election was all about...

How Far Can Bond Yields Rise Before Hurting Equities? Goldman Answers

"... we believe that the equity market is still at a level that can cope with moderately rising bond yields. We estimate that a rise in US bond yields above 2.75% or probably between 0.75-1% in Germany would create a more serious problem for equity markets: at that point we would expect that any further rises in yields from there would be a negative for stock returns." - Goldman Sachs

Where Are We In The Business Cycle: A Troubling Chart From Morgan Stanley

According to Morgan Stanley, 2017 will be a year in which odds of a boom and bust have materially increased, consistent with a late-cycle US environment. So late, in fact, that one look at the chart below shows the US cycle has not only plateaued but is now stalling and is turning over.

Global Stocks Slide On Italian Bank Worries; Dollar Dips As Trumpflation Takes A Back Seat

European shares dipped and U.S. equity-index futures (-0.3%) pointed to a lower open as traders questioned the stability of the Italian banking sector ahead of next weekend's referendum as well as the longevity of the Trumpflation rally, pressuring the dollar.  "It's a bit of a pull back in the dollar," said Societe Generale strategist Alvin Tan. "The fall in oil is pushing back U.S. bond yields and that is leading the consolidation in the dollar.. there is more scepticism about an (OPEC) output cut now."

Furious Dollar Rally Fizzles On "Black Friday"; US Stocks Set To Open At New All-Time Highs

Having soared to fresh 13 year highs in a quiet overnight session on thin liquidity due to the US Thanksgiving holiday the dollar pared back its weekly advance with modest profit taking after traders wondered if the rally has gotten "too stretched." European shares were fractionally higher, with Asian stocks and US equity futures rising and both the Dow Jones and the S&P set for new all time highs.

Dow Futures Top 19,100 As Machines Ramp Despite US Market Holiday

Don't let the fact that US equity markets are closed hold back the exuberant melt-up that a Trump victory has unleahed in capital markets. Echoing a normal non-holiday trading day, 0930ET came around and US equity futures kneejerk ramped higher, pushing Dow futures up above 19,100...