Equity Markets

Global Markets, Futures Slide Spooked By Poor Amazon Earnings, US Politics

S&P futures have tracked both European and Asian markets lower, which were dragged down by the big EPS miss and guidance cut reported by Amazon on Thursday. Meanwhile, the pounding of the dollar has resumed with the euro and sterling strengthening against the dollar due to renewed political concerns

"We May Be Very Close To The Turning Point": Selloff Blamed On This Note From JPM's Marko Kolanovic

"Growth in short volatility strategies in a self-fulfilling manner suppresses both implied and realized volatility. This in turn prompts other investors to increase leverage, and those that hedge with options lose out and eventually throw in the towel. The fact that we had many volatility cycles since 1983, and are now at all-time lows in volatility, indicates that we may be very close to the turning point."

VIX Spikes To 11 As Equity Market Liquidity Dries Up

The plunge in US equity markets continues - led by big tech names - sending VIX soaring to 11 for the first time in 3 weeks. As stocks slip, and VIX spikes, liquidity is also disappearing from futures markets, setting ETFs up for a potentail flash-crash...

Global Stocks Hit New All Time High As Dollar Rebounds; Europe Volatile On Earnings Deluge

The levitation continues with S&P futures pointing to - what else - another higher open while European stocks swung between gains and losses on the busiest earnings days of the year (85 of the Stoxx 600 report) which has seen European pharma giant AstraZeneca plunge 15%, the most on record, after its flagship lung cancer trial Mystic failed to show benefits, while Deutsche Bank slumped 4% on a 12% plunge in FICC revenue.

North Korea ICBM Launch Expected "As Soon As Tonight"

According to Fox News, another North Korean ICBM launch is expected as soon as tonight. Each additional test highlights that Trump's current strategy of containing Kim appears to not be working, as the North Korean continues to defy the US and China’s demands to stop.

Global Stocks Jump, Crude Booms As Yellen Looms

S&P futures were fractionally higher (+0.1% to 2,476) with all eyes on the Fed's rate decision as investors await another earnings deluge from companies including Facebook, Coca-Cola and Boeing. Asian and European shares were also higher, the Dollar rebound continued while oil rose above $48 as copper hit a two year high.

"If The VIX Goes Bananas" This Is What It Will Look Like

This note details how a short vol unwind might develop. A violent rise in volatility could be driven by just a 3% to 4% one-day S&P 500 selloff.  Right now the risk is greatest in the VIX complex, and demand for VIX futures from three main sources could result in 100,000 contracts

When Do We Know These Are Delusional Markets

Signs of complacency and disconnect from fundamentals abound. So to sanity check, it may still be helpful to periodically remind ourselves of a few recent ones. Here, in no particular order, are seven of the most glaring signs.

S&P Futures Bounce As VIX Hammered, Europe "Euphoric"

After sliding to 3 month lows on "car cartel" concerns yesterday, European stocks have rebounded after three days of declines, while oil extended gains after Saudi export cuts, with Brent rising above $49 and WTI just shy of $47. Asian stocks fell while S&P futures rose 0.2% to 2,473, helped by a tumbling VIX which was hammered early by 3% in early Tuesday trading, down to 9.17.

Junk Bonds Are Finally Starting To Care About Oil

"The recent price action in the oil market and the stronger response of the HY Energy sector has prompted many market participants to question the ability of the broader HY market to continue to resist lower oil prices. In our view, the bar remains high for oil prices to become the main directional driver of HY spreads but the risk has risen."

Euro Surges To 2-Year High In "Bipolar" Draghi Reaction; Futures Flat

"Draghi tried to talk the Euro down, even going so far as to suggest that ECB’s quantitative easing could be increased and prolonged," said Swissquote Bank's Yann Quelenn. "But the currency markets were not buying Draghi’s line, and neither are we. Available bonds are too scarce, and turn to a taper is too clear to disguise."

World Stocks Hit Record High For 10th Consecutive Day In "No-Vol Nirvana"

Traders, so mostly algos, are riding a global risk "high" in stocks as Asia's and then Europe's early 0.4 percent gains ensured MSCI's 47-country All World index was up for a 10th straight session. This is the longest winning streak in global stocks since February 2015 and shows little sign of fatigue even as bond yields edged modestly higher again.