"The world has fundamentally shifted over the last decade, especially since we’ve emerged from the Great Recession... But the professional class has been very slow to understand what is going on, not just quantitatively but qualitatively in a new generational configuration that I call the Fourth Turning. They don’t accept the new normal. They keep insisting, just two or three years out there on the horizon, that the old normal will return – in GDP growth, in housing starts, in global trade. But it doesn’t return."
- Theme 1: US economy appears insulated from global weakness
- Theme 2: Strong domestic consumer demand persists
- Theme 3: Managements remain devoted to share repurchases
- Theme 4: Outlook for China is positive despite recent turmoil
The correction in the equity markets has brought the S&P 500 down close to a confluence of key technical levels.
Following a week of crazy volatility, overnight exhausted markets took a breather.
JPM's Kolanovic Warns Upcoming Recession Could Be Comparable To 2008 Crisis; Says "Buy Gold, Cash And VIX"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/11/2016 23:33 -0500
"Gglobal markets are now facing a significant ‘negative wealth effect’ that has a potential to result in a recession. This negative wealth effect of low commodity prices and a strong USD combined with the slowdown in China could be comparable to that of the 2008/2009 crisis (it involves diverse effects ranging from layoffs in the Global Energy sector to a lack of EM Sovereign wealth flowing into developed market equity hedge funds). While the economists were debating if the low-priced oil is good or bad for the economy, the equity markets never had any doubts – Oil and Equities were moving down together."
The stock markets of the so-called PIIGS are breaking down on an absolute and relative basis – not a positive development for global markets.
Just when you thought The BoJ would save the day with its miraculous intervention in carry trades, this happens:
*BOEING SAID TO FACE SEC PROBE OF DREAMLINER AND 747 ACCOUNTING
And just like that, Boeing's stocks crashes 10% dragging the major US equity markets with it. So, just as a reminder, this is a firm which the US government (via Ex-Im Bank) lends billions of US taxpayer dollars... and now the SEC is accusing them of fraud.
Hong Kong traders are back from vacation, and with few options on the table, they are buying the one asset that provides the best cover to central banks losing faith, demonstrated most vividly by the total failure of the BOJ, and as a result just as Yen soars above 113, gold has taken out the numerous $1,200 stops and is currently surging to levels not seen in almost a year.
While algos patiently await the only thing that matters for US stocks today which is Janet Yellen's testimony before Congress. expected to be released at 8:30 am (and previewed here), the rest of the world this morning is a hot mess of schizophrenic highs and lows.
After a day of "rock solid" Lehman-isms, emergency bond buyback plans, and a stock price still unable to close green, Deutsche Bank is on the ropes (despite CNBC proclaiming that "it doesn't feel like a Lehman moment.") However, as dawn breaks across the motherland, something more insidious is breaking for Germany's largest bank. Deutsche faces an uphill task rescuing its stock from record lows, especially, as Reuters reports, a top 10 shareholder exclaims "investors have completely lost faith in the bank," and a fast recovery from this crisis was unlikely.
"So back to the original question WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE. Simple? Recognize the problem. It is not oil, it is not in the banks..it is a run on central bank liquidity, especially dollar based and there needs to be much more ($) liquidity.... Cash shd be charged interest -- put the micro chip in large denom notes/tax cash withdrawals.. encourage spending not saving."
With China offline for the rest of the week, global markets have found a new Asian bogeyman in the face of Japan which as reported last night saw its markets crash, and the Yen soar, showing that less than 2 weeks after the BOJ unveiled NIRP, yet another central bank has lost control.
Being "paid to wait" in high-yielding stocks last year was a death by 394 cuts. As Bloomberg reports, the number of dividend reductions far surpassed 2008, almost 100 more than at the outset of the Great Recession - a time when the implosion of Lehman caused equity markets to plummet in the later stages of the third quarter.