Equity Markets

U.S. Futures Slide, Crude Under $39 As Dollar Rallies For Fifth Day

Following yesterday's dollar spike which, which topped the longest rally in the greenback in one month, the prevailing trade overnight has been more of the same, and in the last session of this holiday shortened week we have seen the USD rise for the fifth consecutive day on concerns the suddenly hawkish Fed (at least as long as the S&P is above 2000) may hike sooner than expected, which in turn has pressured WTI below $39 earlier in the session, and leading to weakness across virtually all global risk assets.

Yellen, Draghi, Kuroda: Deranged Lab Rats

It’s sad that “we the people” continue to allow deranged captured academics, under the complete command of the banking cabal, to control the destiny of our country. They have failed for 103 years, but we continue to bow down to these central bankers as if they knew what they were doing. They do know how to debase the currency, obfuscate true inflation, prop up financial markets through monetary manipulation, and generate prodigious amounts of propaganda and misinformation to coverup their true purposes. The people will sit idly by until these deranged rats destroy the world.

When "Mother's Milk" Runs Dry

For the third time in six months, US equity markets have exuberantly decoupled from earnings expectations thanks, in large part, to jawboning and coordination from Central Banks. With stocks near record highs despite the earnings "mother's milk" expectations tumbling, one can't help but wonder, as CNBC's Bob Pisani did this morning, given the comments from Evans, Lockhart, and Bullard, "It's possible the Fed has seen the market reaction and become alarmed by the complacency."

Why Crispin Odey's $11 Billion Fund Has 5% Daily Swings: "It's No Longer A Market But A Battlefield"

"By mid-March the fund was rising and falling by over 5% per day. At which point this was no longer an investment market but a battlefield. On the day that Draghi came out with his massive market support operation, the stock markets rose 2.5% and then closed down 1.5% on their lows. Imagine how painful it was to see the markets bounce the next day and celebrate his success. At that point I reduced the short book by a third and the long book by 10%."

One Of The Most Accurate Forecasters Of 2016: "S&P Is The Most Overbought Since 2009: Sell!"

"The US market is extremely overbought, and from a cyclical standpoint the SPX is trading in the time window of our late March/early April top projection. In this context, we see the US market vulnerable for a significant reversal this week, which we would see as the beginning of a tactical top building process and subsequent correction into deeper/later Q2."

Is The Stock Rally Getting Too Complacent? (Spoiler Alert: Yes)

Data from the volatility market suggests that expectations in the near-term may have finally gotten a bit too complacent. All in all, this may not be a Defcon 5 level red flag for the market. However, for a rally that has seen scant evidence of exuberance, this is at least one of the first indications of complacency.

Dollar Winning Streak Continues For Fourth Day Pushing Oil Lower; Futures Flat

Following two days of rangebound moves, where Monday's modest market rebound was undone by the Tuesday just as modest decline (despite the early surge higher on the latest "bullish for stocks" European terrorism), overnight equity action continued to be more of the same, and as of this moment S&P 500 futures were unchanged, while European stocks were modestly higher. But while equities remain surprisingly uneventful despite loud warnings by both JPM and Goldman now that another bout of volatility and equity downside is coming, in FX there has been a substantial change, one which has seen the US dollar rise for a fourth day, the longest winning streak in a month, driven by the latest round of hawkish Fed jawboning courtesy of the Chicago Fed's Charlie Evens yesterday, which in turn has pushed down prices of oil, gold and copper.

Global Markets, S&P500 Futures Fall After Brussels Bombings

This morning's Brussels suicide attacks have led to risk-off sentiment across European asset classes, with Bunds higher and equities firmly in the red, although if the Paris terrorist attacks of November are any indication, today's tragic events may be just the catalyst the S&P500 needs to surge back to all time highs. FX markets have also been dominated by events in Brussels, with USD and JPY strengthening, while EUR and GBP softening throughout the European morning.

Fed Warns Brexit Poses Contagious Risk To US Economy, Spikes GBP Volatility To Record Highs

As the battle between Brits' fiercely historic "independence" and the establishment's Project Fear, anxiety is building over the looming Brexit decision. Despite rallies in most markets over the past few weeks, UK-related risk premia remain extremely-elevates with British corporate bond risk notably decoupled from EU's credity risk but it is the FX markets where the biggest dislocations are with Cable volatility at its most elevated ever relative to EUR. While equity markets remain unimpressed by the FX and credit market concerns, Fed's Lockhart warns "BREXIT POSES RISK THAT CAN SPILL BACK TO U.S. ECONOMY."

Global Stocks Levitate Despite Ongoing Oil Weakness; China Stocks Jump After Easing Margin Debt

At the same time as the PBOC was cautioning about the dangers of excess debt (just as it injected a record amount of loans into the financial system), China's central bank warned about dangers from a stock market bubble, and perhaps just to assure the bubble gets even bigger, at the same time China eased on margin debt limits, in the process sending Chinese stocks soaring higher by 2.2%, and pushing the Shanghai Composite over 3000 for the first time in months as China now appears set to attempt another housing bubble "soft landing" while at the same time restarting its housing bubble.

China's Latest Problem: Half A Trillion Dollars In Unpaid Bills

PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan is worried. The amount of debt accumulated by the country's corporate sector is "too much" and poses a "macroeconomic risk." Compounding the problem: the very same corporate sector has more than a half-trillion dollars in unpaid receivables on its books.

Its Not The Economy Stupid, It's The Central Banks

Despite collapsing earnings expectations and weaker than expected macro data, US equity markets have 'lifted off' since mid-February erasing the entire year's losses, and all it took was the coordinated easing from most of the world's largest central banks...

On Opex Day, It's All About The Dollar: Futures, Oil Levitate As USD Weakness Persists

It may be option expiration day (always leading to abnormal market activity) but it remains all about the weak dollar, which after crashing in the two days after the Fed's surprisingly dovish statement has put both the ECB and the BOJ in the very awkward position that shortly after both banks have drastically eased, the Euro and the Yen are now trading stronger relative to the dollar versus prior. As DB puts it, "the US Dollar has tumbled in a fairly impressive fashion since the FOMC on Wednesday with the Dollar spot index now down the most over a two-day period since 2009" which naturally hurts those countries who have been rushing to debase their own currencies against the USD.

Another Fed "Policy Error"? Dollar And Yields Tumble, Stocks Slide, Gold Jumps

In the aftermath of the Fed's surprising dovish announcement, overnight there has been a rather sudden repricing of risk, which has seen European stocks and US equity futures stumble to roughly where they were when the Fed unveiled its dovish surprise, while the dollar collapse has continued, sparking deflationary fears resulting in treasury yields plunging even as gold soars, all hinting at another Fed policy error. So was that it for the Fed's latest intervention "halflife"? We don't know, but we expect much confusion today over whether even the Fed has now run out of dovish ammunition.

First There Was "Brown's Bottom," Now Gold Gains On "Morneau's Miscue"

Gordon Brown, back when he was the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, distinguished himself by selling off approximately one-half of Great Britain’s gold reserves at what turned out to be a near-bottom at the end of the secular bear market in gold which lasted from 1980 to 2000-ish. However, the news that the new Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau has completed selling all remaining Government of Canada gold reserves may remove Brown's laughing-stock status.