Equity Markets

After a volatile morning’s trade, European equities are making gains. Having progressed through the session, markets saw a distinct period of volatility wherein peripheral 10-yr government bond yield spreads tightened markedly with their German counterpart, with the Spanish 10-yr yield making a test, but stopping short of a break below the 7.00% handle. The moves came in the wake of a relatively smooth Spanish T-Bill auction, which saw decent bid/cover ratios albeit with markedly higher yields on their 12- and 18-month lines. A modest relief rally was also observed when markets received confirmation that a recent ruling from the top German court regarding information on the ESM’s configuration does not bar the fund from coming into action and taking effect. In terms of data, markets have shrugged off a particularly poor ZEW survey from Germany, however a substantial weakening was observed in GBP following the release of the first deflationary May reading of CPI since records began. The pullback in cost-push inflation has given markets further reason to believe the BoE may conduct additional QE, as the price-level pressures have eased across the past two months.

The key headline in the overnight session was that China was willing to add a token pittance to the IMF "warchest" even as it itself is struggling to find ways to stimulate its economy. Ignore that China had demands of a complete quota overhaul that would see China nearly on par with the US in voting rights, something the US, which incidentally have exactly $0.00 to the bailout effort, would agree to. The amount that warchest has increased to is now $456 billion. It was $430 billion in April just to keep things in perspective. Hardly the Deus Ex the EURUSD is trying hard to make it appear. In the meantime, a gaping hole, as large as $350 billion has opened in Spain. And that excludes the hundreds of billions that will shortly be needed by Italy. Also out of Greece we get rumors that a government may or may not be formed. As to how long said pro-bailout government will last when over half the country voted against he memorandum, that is a different question entirely. Overall, expect a quiet session with everyone praying loudly that Bernanke will launch a new LSAP program tomorrow. If the Chairman does something far less spectacular like merely expanding Twist or raising the maturity of bonds for sale from 1-3 year to 1-4 year, the market will not be happy. Lastly, the G-20 came, ordered lots of shrimp Ceviche at the best restaurants Las Ventanas and One and Only Palmilla has to offer (charge the taxpayers of course), and conquered nothing. But issued a statement that they hope things will fix themselves all over again. In short: nothing but solid reasons for the futures to be up, up, and away.

Echo. In a slightly less aggressive replay of last Sunday/Monday's reaction to news from Europe, equity futures (and FX markets) opened gap-up and faded significantly to end modestly green after touching the 50DMA briefly. A 20pt drop from its open last night in S&P 500 e-mini futures on the less-than-Armageddon-but-more-of-the-same-disaster scenario played out, which then retraced around 50% of its drop during the day session. Equities diverged strongly from a notably decompressing IG and HY credit market (and significant weakness in HYG - the high-yield bond ETF). Treasuries and FX markets also remain disconnected (implying weaker levels in US stocks) as broadly speaking risk-assets did not feel the same love as stocks today. It would appear that, given the heavy volatility action, drop in Short-term vol (VIX), and recent divergence from stocks, that there was heavy vol selling today which supported a higher equity market in a virtuous manner until later in the afternoon when VIX and SPX had recoupled and stocks then limped lower to VWAP. Treasuries ended the day relatively unchanged from Friday's close after opening 6bps higher in yield, rallying 10bps from there as equities and FX plunged, and recovering higher in yield as the US day session progressed. EURUSD held under 1.26, diverging lower from equity strength from just before the US open leaving the USD higher by 0.45% from Friday's close - even as AUD strengthened notably. Commodities generally ignored USD strength with Copper, Gold, and Silver practically unch from Friday's close while WTI dropped over 1% to around $83 by the close. Financials underperformed as a sector (as Tech and Discretionary gained) but the majors were the worst hit having given up all their gains from Friday's MS lost 3.4%, Citi -2.6% and BofA & GS -2% with JPM close behind.

Treasury yields disconnected (lower) late last week from the ebullience of stocks and while EURUSD managed to spike on the Greek hope (in a perfect reflection of last week's Spanish bailout market reaction), it is now also disconnecting (lower) from equity exuberance in the US (having totally round-tripped from its opening spike lows on the 1st exit polls last night). European stocks are ending near their lows, credit markets notably underperforming (in another almost perfect echo of last week's early market reaction), and while Spanish sovereign bonds are performing the worst, the rest of Europe is also pulling wider in spread and higher in yield. Swiss 2Y rates are down 3bps more at 34bps (and 5Y rates are down 2bps to -3bps - lowest ever on record!). Italian and Spanish stock indices are down over 3% led by financials (which leaves them both lower from pre-Spanish bailout), with only the Swiss and German indices managing modest gains on the day.

Whether its performance-missing anxiety or premature exuberance, UBS Art Cashin notes (as we did on Friday) the disconnect between Bonds' less sanguine appearance and equity's which "seemed determined to take a victory lap even before the polls opened – forget about closed." As Cashin notes, equities were also helped by the quarterly expiration as well as the S&P reweighting which seemed to keep a bid under stocks throughout the day. As the week will be focused on attempts to form a Greek government (in a relatively light macro data week), the avuncular Art summarizes perfectly the situation as "Greek elections may just delay and not decide" as markets appear to be sensing the stalemate and yielding initial gains.

Gold took a tumble for the first time in 7 sessions in Asia as Antonis Samaras, leader of the Greece's New Democracy Party (pro-bailout) was victorious.  Today, Samaras plans to form a coalition with other parties backing the bailout – meaning that Greece’s future in the euro is secure – for now.  Gold’s dip in Asia was thought to be due to profit taking and increased risk appetite after the Greek election. However, this increase in risk appetite has been quite short lived with Spanish and Italian 10 year bonds again coming under pressure resulting in record Spanish yields over 7.13% and Italian 10 year over 6% again. Initial gains in equity markets have subsided and the lessening of risk appetite is seeing gold supported. Greece’s exit from the Eurozone is no longer a short term risk however it remains a real risk as does the risk of financial contagion in the Eurozone due to insolvent banks in Spain, Italy and France.

The market finds itself at another one of those junctures that have been prevalent over the past 3 years.

So the Greek elections come and go and someone takes over or there is no government and new elections are called. In the meantime either Europe hands Greece more money or Greece defaults. It is at the point of default where consequences require central bank action and where even the best made plans may careen out of control because so much information has been hidden and not accounted for so that their consequences were not considered. Dealing with incorrect facts leads to incorrect conclusions and this is my greatest fear at present for all of the financial markets; that the pending default, it will most likely come, will not have been assessed in the manner that was needed because Europe did not allow all of the necessary data to be correctly appreciated.

Equity markets remain exuberantly willing to carry risk into the weekend on the "it's discounted" argument or the "Central Banks will save us" scenario. However, it appears investors are more anxiously buying Treasury bonds into the weekend as safe-haven flows continue (and Spanish bond yields press back up to 7%) and Swiss 2Y rates hold at -32bps. Euro strength on repatriation flows and stocks diverging from risk-assets in general make us nervous for this rally holding (especialy given the underperformance of financials from the open).

If yesterday's global intervention rumor was a feeler of market response to the next latest and greatest intervention then we may have big problems: the EURUSD is now unchanged, Spanish bond yields are now unchanged, stocks are doing their quad witching thing which means all stops will be taken out before the day is done, but most importantly the euphoria such an announcement would have created before is now completely gone (as per The Diminishing Returns Of Central Planning). What is actually worse, and how the G-20 rumor may have backfired, is that as we pointed out, suddenly there has been a significant shift in expectations: if Syriza does not have an outright win on Sunday then there will be no immediate central bank response, which was predicted to be "if needed". Remember: for this market, when all that matters is the next 10 minutes of trading, this is the only relevant metric. Which means that suddenly from a Risk On event, Syriza's loss has become Risk Off! Of course, the reality is that Sunday will almost certainly be a replay of the last election, where the parliament continues to be empty, and Greece continues to be "Belgium" - recall from May 3, "Previewing The First Of Many Greek Elections." In either case, as others have suggested holding on to positions over the weekend may not be the most prudent thing.

Epic. Stocks clambered back up to the 1315 (S&P 500 e-mini Sept 2012 contract) level which has been a critical VWAP level for a few days now amid what was a mildly slow day (though IG credit outperformed from its recent deterioration). Then the rumors started.  Risk assets jolted in a very systemic manner (all highly correlated) as ES popped above last Friday's highs (unable to get close to Monday's open we do note), then as the realization that a pre-emptive warning of 'some' action in the case of 'some' event was simply the status quo anyway and we gave the entire 14 pt ramp back. Then we bounced once again as BoE made some noise on further stimulus if things go pear-shaped and we bounced again (though this time only about 8pts and on very small average trade size we note) as we headed into the close right around last Friday's highs. With OPEX tomorrow, this vol could not be more stop-inducing and painful for many as the Dow has now been -150, +150, -80, and +160 pts this week and decent volume today although average trade size remains limited (on the lack of conviction we pre-suppose). Gold and less so Silver bounced off their earlier spike-down moves and WTI rallied like a champ today (resyncing with Silver just in the green for the week). Gold is up 2% on the week (but was far less impressed with the chatter today than stocks were) as in the meantime the USD dropped and ended -0.75% on the week (and AUD is now 1% stronger). Treasuries whipsawed around but only retraced around a third of their rally from yesterday's morning session as 7Y and 10Y underperformed (+5bps or so). Pre-OPEX VIX is always a mess but we dropped over 2.5 vols into the close to end under 22% (but above Friday's close). Risk assets in general moved together and stayed in sync today during the final hour's carnival with stocks perhaps a little rich by the close.

Equity markets have traded with moderate volatility so far today as peripheral news concerning Spain and Italy continues to be keenly watched by market participants. Overnight the Italian PM Mario Monti said he does not see any need for a bailout either now or in the future with the Italian and Spanish 10yr yields seen off their highs yesterday, lower by 9.8bps and 7.6bps respectively. On a sector breakdown tobacco stocks saw some slight support after US firm Philip Morris announced a new USD 18bln 3yr share buyback program, however, industrials have lagged as a whole following a profit warning from Swedish firm SKF. In terms of fixed income, the bund has continued yesterday's slide with the Bundesbank coming to market with a July 2022 tap. In initial reaction to the results, bunds saw a 20 tick spike higher, off session lows, following what was perceived to have been a "smooth" auction despite some concerns about the eventual credit worthiness of Germany given the recent bailout of the peripheral nations. Meanwhile, the long end of the EUR curve steepened in early trade as reports from the Danish government who have agreed to change the discount rate that pension funds estimate liabilities being noted. In FX, EUR/USD trades higher into the N.American cross-over with an Asian sovereign name being a touted buyer this morning. In other news the AUD also caught a bid shortly after comments from the German central bank who said that they are considering buying the antipodean currency.

European equities in both the futures and the cash markets are making significant gains after a mornings’ trade, with financials, particularly in the periphery, leading the way higher following the weekend reports of the Eurogroup confirming aid for the Spanish banking sector. With data remaining light throughout the day, its likely investors will remain focused on the macro-picture, seeing some relief as the Spanish financials look to be recapitalized. At the open, risk sentiment was clear, with EUR/USD opening in the mid-1.2600’s, and peripheral government bond yield spreads against the German bund significantly tighter. In the past few hours, these positions have unwound somewhat, with EUR/USD breaking comfortably back below 1.2600 and the Spanish 10-yr yield spread moving through unchanged and on a widening trend across the last hour or so against its German counterpart, and the yield failing to break below the 6% mark.

After hitting overnight highs of 1.2670, the EURUSD has wiped out nearly all of its gains following the Spanish "bailout", and was last trading just +40 pips higher compared to the Friday close. Same thing with Spanish bonds: these reacted favorably initially, but slowly the bondholder realization that they just got primed has settled in, and with sovereign CDS still a questionable hedge courtesy of ISDA, the only real hedge is selling, and have now drifted wider on the day, as have Italian bonds following a Bloomberg piece which notes the patently obvious: Italy Moves Into Debt-Crisis Crosshairs After Spain. Expect US stocks, always last to get the memo, to realize that Europe has not only faded the entire move, but is now appreciating it for what it is: a confirmation of failure.

That economic data out of Europe was disappointing overnight should come as no surprise to anyone. That Spain is broke, and there is no money to bail it out under the existing framework (and that Germany is unwilling to come up with a new bailout scheme), should also be no surprise. And yet they somehow manage to stun the market... each and every day. Which is why overnight action has now boiled down to a simple algorithmic exercise: is there a short covering squeeze: if yes, then rip, aka Risk On. If not, then Risk Off. So far, the squeeze has not been initiated which is also to be expected, following the biggest short covering squeeze in up to two years. This too may change if repo desks decide to pull borrow as they tend to do during regular hours, to give the impression that the latest and greatest bailout plan is "working." And in other news, which is completely irrelevant, here is the actual news.