Equity Markets

"Hard" Economic Data Slides To One Year Lows

With 2017 EPS expectations at 2017 lows, 2017 GDP expectations at 2017 lows, and real bond yields at 2017 lows, it should hardly be surprising that 'hard' economic data has collapsed to its lowest level in over a year. What should be surprising is the equity market's desperate clinging to 'soft' survey data's high hope levels...

Congress Heads Out For Vacation As Government Shutdown Looms

Mitch McConnell:  "These kinds of bills can’t pass without a reasonable number of the party of the minority in the Senate.  And we are optimistic we’ll be able to work all that out and meet the deadline at the end of the month..." 

Key Events In The Holiday-Shortened Week

In this holiday-shortened week (markets closed for Good Friday), focus turns to several inflation prints in G10 in the week ahead, with US and UK inflation data likely to get the most attention. In addition, there are a few scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials, including a speech by Fed Chair Yellen on Monday.

Futures Flat Ahead Of Yellen As Geopolitical Risks Loom; Fear Barometer Spikes

S&P futures point to a slightly lower open, while Asian and European stocks are likewise modestly in the red. Trading volumes are muted for most markets on Monday with investors spooked by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Korean peninsula. It is also a holiday-shortened week in much of the West.

Eric Peters Calls it: "The Change Of Change Is Now Negative"

“The last time we had a major shift in the change of change was a year ago. In Jan/Feb 2016, China was imploding. Then China unleashed explosive credit stimulus, while the Fed blinked. Within a short time, the change of change turned positive. And that marked the time to buy. And now, it's negative."

Why Washington Politics Make Trump's Tax Cuts All But Impossible

Throughout the 2016 Presidential campaign Trump promised American voters that he planned to, among other things, "cut the hell out of taxes."  But despite the promises, the politics and partisanship gripping Washington DC means that Trump's tax reform policies are almost certain to face the same fate as his failed Obamacare repeal effort.

Citi: Central Banks "Took Over" Markets In 2009; In December The "Unwind" Begins

"The rise in return correlations occurred almost exactly at the time when the central banks effectively ‘took over’ markets. However, with the Fed now tightening faster than the market anticipated not long ago, and our economists expecting that it will cease to reinvest maturing securities in its portfolio from December this year, the unwind is underway."

US Stock Funds Suffer Biggest Outflow Since 2015 As Bond Inflows Soar

According to Bank of America in the latest week through April 5, there were $7.4BN in outflows from equities, the largest in 40 weeks. At the same time, bonds recorded $12.4 BN of inflows, the highest in 8 weeks, with Treasuries posting largest inflows in 10 weeks as the "great reflationary rotation" crumbled once again. The focus was entirely on the U.S., where stocks saw the largest outflow since 2015, or in the past 82 weeks, as $14.5 billion was redeemed.

Global Stocks Rebound From Overnight Lows, On Edge Ahead Of Trump-Xi Meeting

S&P futures are little changed at 6am ET, trading at 2347.55 and paring an earlier 0.4 percent drop, on the back of the USDJPY ramp which for the second day in a row has emerged alongside the European open, soothing concerns about the Fed's balance sheet reduction and "some" Fed officials warning that stocks have gotten expensive. While Asian stocks fall in early trading, European bourses rebounded from session lows alongside the S&P and USDJPY.

50% Of Americans Live Payday-To-Payday; 33% Can't Write A $500 Emergency Check

It's been more than seven years since the 'great recession' officially ended, but while Fed policies have successfully generated massive asset bubbles which have accrued solely to the benefit of America's wealthiest, the majority of American families remain as vulnerable to financial disaster as they were during the height of the crisis.

What Could Possibly Go Wrong? - Why This Time Is Not Different

In the 1990s, stocks continued to rise relentlessly for years, even after then Fed Chair Greenspan warned of irrational exuberance in late 1996.  Last decade, the rally in home prices continued as ever more people appeared convinced that home prices never fall.  This time around, we are eight years into a bull market. As in those times, investors have all but given up betting against conventional wisdom...but this time is not different...

Stocks Drop After Fed Minutes, Bonds Unchanged

Despite the warning by "some" Fed members that stocks are "quite high", and another even more implicit warning, that the Fed may have to revise its forecast if "financial markets were to experience a significant correction", the market's initial reaction to the Fed's warning was to ignore it, although in recent minutes there has been a modest acceleration to the downside across equity markets.