For the fourth day in a row, US traders arrive at their desks with US equity futures largely rangebound if with a modestly heavy bias, pressured by some recent weakness in European stocks, where DB continues to post modest gains following yesterday's report that Germany is pursuing "discrete talks" over the fate of the German lender. Oil has regained earlier losses following comments by Algeria's oil minister who said that OPEC could cut 1% more than agreed upon while sterling continues to slide on growing concerns of a "hard Brexit."
The USD Index is at its highest since late July, breaking out above its 200-day moving-average as Fed rate-hike odds soar. The knock-on effect of the surge is tumbling oil prices, plunging energy stocks, and subsequent drops in the major US equity indices... And then VIX was clubbed like a baby seal back to a 12 handle to ensure everything looks ok...
Pent-up exuberance from the long weekend has lifted Deutsche Bank stock in early European trading, but it has also lifted the cost of credit protection as professionals in the CDS market appears far less confident in the dead-cat-bounce that equity speculators are already beginning to fade.
With China, German and South Korea closed for holiday, it has been a relatively quiet day in overnight equity trading, especially in the one stock everyone is keeping a close eye on, Deutsche Bank, whose ADRs are trading fractionally lower, down under 1% in premarket trading. Cable plunged on "Hard Brexit" fears sending the FTSE100 to fresh 16 month highs.
After weeks of speculation on the UK's timetable for invoking Article 50, and eventually exiting the EU, Prime Minister Theresa May today announced she’ll begin the U.K.’s withdrawal from the European Union in the first quarter of 2017, ending speculation about the start of the 2-year Brexit process.
For the first half of the year, we were warned early and often by authorities that the Brexit vote could be a calamity for the ages. For example, the IMF claimed that a “Leave” result would threaten to “cause severe damage”, while Standard and Poor’s said that it would “paralyze” investment in the UK. But, as Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins notes, it turns out that the real Brexit casualty isn’t the UK economy – instead it is the reputation of the many professional economists who wrongly predicted doom and gloom as the likely aftermath.
"In our opinion it is not so much funding issues but rather derivatives exposures that more likely to trouble markets going forward if Deutsche Bank concerns continue. This is especially true if these concerns propagate into a confidence crisis inducing more rapid unwinding of derivative contracts."
With The SNB and BOJ already neck deep in their equity-buying experimentation, and even Janet Yellen hinting at it for The Fed, the most pressing question on most liquidity-hunting central-planer-watchers is - when will Draghi start buying stocks? The short answer, from ABN AMRO, is ECB equity purchases are unlikely in the near term.. and even so, The ECB would be increasing the risk on its balance sheet for uncertain, and at best modest gains in economic growth and inflation.
After oil soared over 5% yesterday, its biggest jump since April, overnight skepticism and doubts have emerged about the viability and compliance with the deal, coupled with a boost in production by non-OPEC producers, and as a result WTI has dipped back under $47, down 0.5%, suggesting that the OPEC surge may be short-lived, and modestly pressuring US equity futures.
After yesterday's "Hillary rally" in the US, the overnight's session has seen more risk-on sentiment as European stocks advanced, ignoring weakness in Asia as investors followed every twist of shares of beleaguered lender Deutsche Bank, whose CEO last night assured Bill readers that the bank is not seeking a bailout, which however was contradicted by a Zeit article this morning reporting that Germany may seek as much as s 25% "bailout" stake in a worst case scenario.
While today's biggest event for both markets and politics will be tonight's highly anticipated first presidential debate between Trump and Hillary, markets are waking up to some early turmoil in both Asia and Europe, with declines in banks and energy producers dragging down stock-markets around the world, pushing investors to once again seek the safety of government bonds and the yen.