Equity Markets

It's The Dollar, Stupid!

We expect global monetary authorities to protect the dollar as long as they can and we expect them to fail. Stocks and bonds will react violently; stocks and weak credits falling, treasuries prices rising (at first). That failure will lead to hyperinflation – not driven by demand, but rather by central bank money printing. A new global monetary understanding will then emerge.

The Bank of Japan Was The Top Buyer Of Japanese Stocks In 2016

The Bank of Japan is set to become the biggest buyer of exchange-traded funds in 2016 for the second straight year. According to data through Thursday, the value of the BOJ's ETF purchases this year has topped 4.3 trillion yen, up 40% from 2015. As a result, the BOJ "will become the largest buyer of ETFs this year," according to Mizuho Securities.

Goldman Sachs' 2016 Review (Crossword-Style)

The year began with a perfect storm of worries that had become all too familiar already in 2015. Oil prices plunged and fears of faltering growth and a sharp depreciation of China’s currency escalated, driving disruptive sell-offs in credit and other risk assets. Confidence in global growth faltered, particularly after an anemic US GDP report for Q1. But oh, how the world has changed...

Dave Collum's 2016 Year In Review - "And Then Things Got Really Weird..."

"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."

The Wierdest Thing About 2016 Is...

"Trump wins US Election"? "UK Leaves EU"? "Cubs Win World Series"? How about this one: "The VIX Peaks in February"? For the first time since the start of the modern VIX in 1990, the 'Fear Gauge' peaked in that month...

The Bears Are Dying: Even Bob Janjuah Turns (Somewhat) Bullish

"The trends over H1 2017 should be higher (especially US) equities and yields, steeper curves, a stronger USD, and mixed performance in credit (especially in the IG sphere) and EM. So for me, most likely over the middle two quarters of 2017, I can see the S&P 500 cash index up at 2450 +/- 50 points, with the Nasdaq weakest and the Dow strongest of the big three US indices."

S&P Futures Rise Propelled By Stronger Dollar; Europe At 1 Year High As Yen, Bonds Drop

It appears nothing can stop the upward moment of equities heading into the year end, and as US traders walk in, S&P futures are again higher, proppeled by European stocks which climbed to their highest in almost a year, while the USD rose and bonds and gold fell, failing again to respond to terrorist attacks in Ankara, Berlin and Zurich. The yen tumbled after the BOJ maintained its stimulus plan.

2016 Year In Review

We started this year with the economy deteriorating and finished it with the second interest rate increase in ten years. There were a lot of ups and downs along the way, but ultimately 2016 was defined by three key story-lines:  1) Brexit 2) The Presidential Election 3) Fed Policy. The first two events were votes that shocked the world. The stock market’s reaction to each was arguably even more shocking. 

Markets Award Trump Nobel Prize In Economics

It took only nine days in office for President Obama to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. Likewise, the markets seem to have prematurely greeted Trumponomics as an outstanding success. There’s just one thing: Trump hasn’t done anything yet. We’re still weeks away from his inauguration, and details of his economic plans remain scarce.