Equity Markets

The Market Wizard's Wizard - An Interview With Jack Schwager

"...someone with a great risk-adjusted return might have employed a strategy of selling way out-of-the money puts on equities since late 2008. That strategy would have produced great return/risk performance, almost like a money machine, but the trouble is that type of strategy also embeds a large tail risk. So even though the track record of this strategy would show low volatility, there would be the risk of catastrophic losses... Ironically, many strategies with low volatility are the most susceptible to event risk.

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The Trump administration continues to sabre-rattle at global powers and threatens to disrupt the status-quo of international relations. Comments in just 24-hours by Donald Trump and his team have included attacking an Ivy League university, a nuclear power and two of the United States’ key trading partners.

What Google Trends Reveal About The State Of America's Torn Society

If you want to know what’s really on the minds of the American population since the Election, just look at Google search trends.  For example, did the Dow hitting 20,000 last week spark a lot of interest in the stock market or that venerable measure?  Not really – searches for “Stock market” and “Dow Jones” are the same now as last year at this time.  What DID force public attention on those terms was (you guessed it) the US Election

Dollar Slide Accelerates After Fed Fails To Boost Confidence, Pressures US Futures

European shares and S&P futures fell amid mixed earnings from corporate heavyweights, while Asian stocks were fractionally higher. The dollar slump continued against all its major peers after the Federal Reserve gave dollar bulls little to be optimistic about.  The U.S. currency dropped toward the lowest close since November after the Fed reiterated its intention on Wednesday to lift rates only gradually.

A Time For Caution

"We have argued the current monetary regime is in its evanescence, and that the Fed is trying to raise rates to attract global wealth to dollars and dollar-denominated assets as global leverage, demand and output growth declines. If we are right, then we should not expect other economies to sit by idly... which keep us cautious on equities, bullish on Treasuries and gold, and negative on credit:"

Gartman No Longer Bullish After Seeing Barron's Cover

"We’ve brought a stop up behind that position that shall take us out at break-even, including the dividend,  but we’ve no intention at this point of buying anything else and if we are taken out we’ll stand wholly aside and watch further developments."

Futures Fall On Rising Trump Uncertainty; Europe Stocks Rise As Euro-Area Inflation Surges

European bonds fell and stocks rose led by banks and retailers as surging inflation data prompted investors to switch into reflationary assets even as speculation about ECB tapering has returned. Asian stocks and US equity futures declined. The Yen and gold advanced after Trump’s firing of the U.S. acting attorney general added to concern over the unpredictability of decisions in the new administration.

Gartman: "Our Propensity Is To Find Modest Long Exposure Today"

"Our “net” equity market exposure then is relatively minor but given the longer term trend and given the minor correction to the downside over the course of the past three or four sessions, accompanied by rather obviously declining volume on the exchanges, our propensity is to find modest long exposure today."

Global Stocks, Futures Slide On US Protectionism Worries Following Trump Travel Chaos

European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all drop after traders were left with a sour taste from the potential fallout of Donald Trump’s order halting some immigration and ahead of central bank decisions from the U.S. and Japan.  Markets in Hong Kong, China, Malaysia, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam are all shut due to the Lunar New Year public holiday.

"Traders Got It Wrong Before The Election, And Continue To Get It Wrong Today"

"Traders got it wrong before the election, and continue to get it wrong today.” The VIX touched 10.50. “You see the tweets, the media battle, illegal voters, conspiracy theories, Mexican feuds, European taunts, border walls, fake news, and lies,” said Roadrunner, looking left, right, up. “But be careful what you watch. There is only one thing that doesn’t lie, and that’s the price."

Hedgies Panic As Hamptons Luxury Home Prices Crash 43% Year-Over-Year

As U.S. equity markets continue to surge to new all-time highs with each passing day, something you would expect to benefit the titans of high finance in Manhattan, demand for luxurious, multi-million dollar weekend getaways in the Hamptons has all but completely disappeared.