As Goldman warns, should US 10-year rates move above the bank's ‘fair value’, "this would represent a threat to risky assets." Well, 10-year yields are now at what Goldman estimates is "fair value", which means any additional increases from here could lead to a stock market selloff.
This morning the world awakes to a charred landscape in which markets are frantically rushing to catch up to a suddenly hawkish Fed which not only hiked for the second time in a decade but, as per yesterday's Fed statement and Yellen press conference, realizes it has been behind the curve all along,
European stocks slipped from an 11 month high, Asian stocks and S&P futures were flat as caution pervades global markets before the Federal Reserve’s expected interest-rate hike on Wednesday. Treasuries slipped, after reaching the highest level in more than two years. Oil in New York slid to near $52 a barrel after API showed a build in inventories, and currencies of commodity-exporting nations fell. Gold headed for its biggest gain in a week.
Yesterday's brief hiccup in what has been an otherwise relentless rally in global risk assets is all but forgotten this morning, as European and Asian stocks, and US equity futures, all rise in quiet trading ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting, with the Dow set to make a 16th consecutive post-election all time high.
European and Asian shares rose again and S&P futures were little changed, as world stocks were set for a weekly gain and held near 16-month highs on Friday, while the euro steadied after swings following the European Central Bank’s decision to extend its stimulus program.
"Withdrawal of monetary accommodation would also accentuate the problem of a strong USD, uncover geopolitical complacency, and remove the lid from market volatility. In fact, our view is that further withdrawal of monetary accommodation would likely lead to turmoil in financial markets."
There’s seemingly no stopping the equity side of the “Trumpflation” trade in what may be developing into an epic year end blow-off top. The euphoria which took the S&P 500, Russell 2000 and the Transports to all-time highs yesterday, and the Dow to less than 500 points away from 20,000 carried over into Asian stocks (+0.8%) as they followed bullish trend, while European stocks rose for a fourth day.
A strategy of holding cash and buying any 5% dip in S&P until markets retrace the loss has outperformed the S&P consistently since 2014, but as BofAML warns, the changes in inflation market dynamics post-Trump may "handcuff" The Fed and pull a key support out of the market that helped create the "buy the dip" trade.
European and Asian markets rose, while U.S. index futures were little changed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average pushing for yet another record, as traders digested the Italian referendum news, await the ECB's Thursday announcement and reflect in a notably quieter overnight session. Oil slipped from a 16-month high after 4 straight days of gains.
December 5, 1996: “Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions?"
Another miraculous overnight recovery has eliminated all the bearish aftertaste from the failed Italian referendum. As Guillermo Sampere of MPPM EK put it: "After Brexit, it took three days for markets to shake it off, with Trump it took three hours, with Italy it took three minutes.The fast money, who expected markets to fall further with this outcome, are now covering their positions."
"S&P 500 valuation is stretched relative to history on nearly every fundamental metric. At the aggregate level, the S&P 500 index trades at the 85th percentile of historical valuation relative to the past 40 years. For portfolio managers, the more important fact is that the median S&P 500 company trades at the 98th percentile of historical valuation."