Equity Markets

Quiet Month End Markets Hide "Below The Surface" Fireworks

It has been another quiet session for global equity markets, with S&P futures flat, as are European and Asian stocks, which is perhaps odd, as there was quite a bit of newsflow and, in the case of China, outright fireworks.

Paul Singer Warns "All Hell Will Break Loose"

"Given groupthink and the determination of policy makers to do ‘whatever it takes’ to prevent the next market ‘crash,’ we think that the low-volatility levitation magic act of stocks and bonds will exist until the disenchanting moment when it does not. And then all hell will break loose." - Paul Singer

Fink Fears Bond Curve Signals, Cooperman Warn Stocks Ahead Of Fundamentals

US equity markets pushed back into the green this morning just as two heavyweight investors suggested all is not well in the land of exuberance. Blackrocks' Larry Fink warned the equity market is not appreciating the message from the Treasury yield curve (and sees lower growth than Trump hopes for), while Omega's Cooperman warned that markets are fully priced, and ahead of fundamentals.

"The Smoking Gun": BofA Warns Fed Renormalization Could Send Equities 30% Lower

"The trillion dollar mismatch in Treasury supply/demand dynamics over the next five years will likely trigger an equity-rate disconnect correction, in our view. Our analysis suggests either rates need to be 120bp higher or stocks need to be 30% lower to trigger enough demand to match forward UST supply estimates." - BofA

Greek, Italian Risks Weigh On European, Global Markets; Oil, Gold Slide

Tuesday's session started off on the back foot, with the Euro first sliding on Draghi's dovish comments before Europarliament on Monday coupled with a Bild report late on Monday according to which Greece was prepared to forego its next debt payment if not relief is offered by creditors, pushing European stocks lower as much as -0.6%. However the initial weakness reversed after Greece denied the Bild report. S&P futures are fractionally lower

Global Rally Fizzles After "OPEC Shock" In "Slow Risk-Off Session"

S&P futures were fractionally lower from yesterday's record high as European stocks declined and Asian stocks were mixed, pressured by yesterday's 5% plunge in crude after OPEC unexpectedly "failed to surprise" markets, and announced the bare minimum supply cut extension that was expected by oil traders, who in turn puked long positions.

China Downgrade Forgotten As Asia Closes Higher, Futures Flat Ahead Of Fed Minutes

Not even last night's Moody's credit downgrade of China - the first since 1989 - could dent the global stock rally which has pushed global stock prices to all time highs. After initially sliding, regional stocks and emerging Asian currencies pared early losses following the unexpected downgrade of China, taking their cue from the "sudden reversal" of the Shanghai Composite Index, which some speculated saw the latest intervention of the "national team."

Cudmore: "I’m Failing To See Why Dip-Buyers Aren’t Correct"

"U.S. equities are more likely to melt-up rather than melt-down in the short-term. Too many investors seem obsessed with the fact that U.S. stocks are "expensive" and "overvalued" when compared to historical metrics. I’m not disputing those statements. But when there’s an unprecedented amount of liquidity in global markets, then valuations at unprecedented levels don’t seem completely illogical."

S&P Futs Near All Time High On Strong Euro Data; Oil Drops On Trump's SPR Sale Plans

S&P futures rose alongside European stocks as Asian shares posted modest declines. The euro set a new six-month high and European bourses rose as PMI data from Germany and France signaled that the ECB will have to tighten soon as Europe's recovery remains on track, with the German Ifo business confidence printing at the highest level on record, and hinting at a GDP print in the 5% range.

"Sell In May"... And Buy Bonds?

SocGen's cross-asset strategist Andrew Lapthrone has found a curious seasonally-driven pair trade which may be suitable for the next four months: sell stocks and buy bonds, as "June to September are among the weakest months for equities but the strongest for bonds."

Asia Jumps, Europe Stutters As Political Rumblings Return; Oil Nears $51

Global stocks were mixed to start the week, with Asian stocks higher, European stocks initially advancing then fading gains, while S&P futures are little changed after the biggest weekly drop since April (which for those keeping record was -0.4%). European shares, the euro and the pound all stumbled on Monday as rumblings in Spain, Britain and Brussels reminded investors that the region still has plenty of political uncertainty left in the tank.