Equity Markets

"Trump Trade 1.0" Is Over - Why It Will Take Some Time To Ship Version 2.0

Do not fear: there will be a “Trump Trade 2.0” at some point this year. Either valuations will retreat to the point where they reflect the reality of a legislatively-driven set of catalysts, or Washington will (in its own time) deliver on a pro-growth agenda as the market treads water. Just remember: Washington doesn’t work in New York minutes.

The Echo Chamber Of Elite Economists: Often Wrong, Never In Doubt

Despite what appears to be an inflection point of radical change, most of which remains unknown, the consensus opinion of professional economists and markets, in general, are well-aligned, optimistic and seemingly convinced about how the economy and markets will evolve throughout the year.  The consensus forecast based upon an assessment of economic projections from major financial institutions appears to be the result of a Ph.D. echo chamber, not rigorous independent analysis.

Algos Gone Wild As Stocks Swing On Every Healthcare Vote Headline

US equity markets suddenly dumped on heavy volume after House Freedom Caucus chairman Mark Meadows, speaking after White House meeting, said there are still not enough votes to pass healthcare bill. .. only to surge on a headline of Barletta flipped to support the bill.

Global Stocks Tumble; Gold, Safe Havens Jump On Doubts Trump Tax Cuts Will Pass

Global stocks tumbled amid growing doubts President Trump will be able to deliver on a promise of tax cuts that has powered stocks markets to record highs pushed shares lower on Wednesday and drove investors to seek safety in government debt, gold and the yen. As DB put it: "Warning! US equities can occasionally go down as well as up a lot."

Passive Aggressive Pigs Get Slaughtered

"Most of the money supporting ETF asset growth is coming from investors ignorant (or willfully ignorant) of risk. As with active investing, ETFs provide mostly long exposure. Unlike active investing, the higher cap-weighted indexes move beyond sustainable value, the more likely ETFs will disappoint investors."

"Alexa... Should I Buy Stocks?"

Are retail investors buttressing US stocks at current (and elevated) levels? A variety of indicators say "Yes". Our primary concern: fund flows can be quite seasonal, with Q1-to-early Q2 a peak period due to retirement account flows. After mid-April, this diminishes considerably. Then, we will need a reliable stream of positive headlines to keep retail investors in the game.

Global Stocks Rise; Euro Surges To 6 Week High After French Presidential Debate

European stocks are modestly in the green as gains in banks and oil companies offset declines in miners. Asian stocks and S&P futures rise with Emerging-market stocks extending their longest winning streak since August on the back of the 5th consecutive daily drop in the USD. The euro rose to the strongest in six weeks after a French presidential debate eased market concerns about a possible Le Pen win.

Global Stocks, US Futures Slide Spooked By G20 Protectionist Shift; Dollar Drops For 4th Day

Global markets start the week mixed with Asian stocks rising (Japan was closed for holiday), European stocks sliding, weighed down by declines in oil-and-gas shares and banks, and S&P500 futures also down. The dollar fell to a six-week low, falling four days in a row for the first time since early November as G20 leaders scrap a long-standing commitment to reject all forms of trade protectionism.

There's One Missing Ingredient From The Market Rally 'Recipe'

It’s great when a plan comes together. The recipe for the whole move since Election Day is easy. Take one part new Administration with expansive plans to boost the US economy. Add in 2 measures of a Federal Reserve confident enough in existing macro growth to boost interest rates. Add a dollop of money flows. Seems perfect, but there is one thing missing: the analysts who actually cover companies and make earnings forecasts aren’t buying it.

Albert Edwards: This Is The Reason Why The Market Doesn't Believe The Fed Any More

"One reason why the market doesn't believe the Fed dots is that investors cannot conceive of Fed tightening to the point that it causes the stockmarket any serious damage. Time and time again over both this and previous cycles the Fed has backed off rate hikes as soon as the going got tough. Maybe that is why the S&P trades at such a huge PE premium to the rest of the world."

Global Stocks Soar To Record Highs On "Dovish" Fed, Dutch Vote

World stock indexes surged to record highs on Thursday while the dollar traded close to a one-month low after the Federal Reserve hiked U.S. interest rates but signaled no pick-up in the pace of tightening, while the Dutch elections were broadly interpreted as a drop in support for Europe's anti-establishment powers.