Equity Markets

Tyler Durden's picture

The China Narrative That Really Matters





"I get nervous because the next move in China is going to be a political move, and political moves are never well anticipated by markets. The Beijing regime is going to take steps to defend itself, or at least insulate itself, from the growing Narrative that they are incompetent. Heads will roll. Literally, in all likelihood. But the incompetence genie is very hard to stuff back into the bottle, and depending on whose head is on the chopping block, regime stability can deteriorate very quickly. Now that's what will make me change my bullish stance on China fundamentals, and that's what will make the US market swoon of last August look like a gentle spring rain."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Here We Go Again: Chinese Stocks Plunge, Give Up Early Gains Despite Yuan Fix Unchanged





Update: *SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX FALLS 2.04%(AFTER BEING UP 3.2%)

With all eyes on Chinese FX and equity markets, following the worst start to a year for US (and Chinese) stocks in history, PBOC decided (after 7 straight days of devaluation and 7% devaluation since August) to halt the run and increase Yuan fix by a paltry 0.01% to 6.5636 (notably below yesterday's 6.5939 CNY close). Offshore Yuan is strengthening and US equity markets are jumping. Chinese equity markets (now theoretically unhampered by their circuit-breaker panic switch) are far less impressed.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

As The Saudi Economy Implodes, A Fascinating Solution Emerges: The Aramco IPO





Earlier today everything changed when Saudi Arabia's unveiled what may be a stunning Hail Mary: one which is great news for the suddenly liquidity challenged Saudi government, and is very bad news for the future price of oil. According to the Economist, Saudi Arabia is contemplating taking Saudi Aramco - arguably the world's most valuable company - public. Here are the implications.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

VIX Breaks Above 25 - Term Structure Inverts; Credit Signals More To Come





Who could have seen that coming? Bob Pisani is about to get "worried" as VIX broke above 25

 
Tyler Durden's picture

China Suspends Circuit-Breaker Rule - "This Is Insane; We Were Forced To Liquidate All Our Holdings This Morning"





Update: *CHINA SUSPENDS  STOCK CIRCUIT BREAKER RULE - In Q&A, CSRC insists circuit breakers didn't cause the China meltdown but admits they may have aggravated sell-off.

"It couldn't be worse," exclaims one manager who started his fund mid-year in 2015, blaming China's equity market carnage on its newly-created circuit-breakers (as opposed to the fact that the Chinese market trades at 64x P/E and there are sellers everywhere). "Panic will eventually turn into a buying opportunity," hopes one strategist while another proclaims "poorly-designed" circuit breakers need to be adjusted to 10% (seriously). Blame is everywhere,  but it is Chen Gang who summed up the panic best, "this is insane... we were forced to liquidate all our holdings this morning."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Global Stocks Crash After Spiraling Chinese Devaluation Unleashes Worldwide Chaos And Selling





Once China set the Yuan fixing some 0.5% lower, the biggest drop since the August devaluation, all hell broke loose and unleashed a global selling panic after China's stock market was promptly shut down less than 30 minutes into trading, then European shares dropped the most in more than 4 months as Asian equities plunges, as did US stock futures, the dollar weakened against the euro and the yen; crude plunged to fresh 12 year lows. Gold rose.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Here We Go Again: China Halts Trading For The Entire Day After Another 7% Crash





CHINA STOCKS HALTED FOR REST OF DAY AFTER CSI 300 TUMBLES 7% - Following the collapse of offshore Yuan to 5 year lows and decompression to record spreads to onshore Yuan, The PBOC has stepped in and dramatically devalued the Yuan fix by 0.5% to 6.5646. This is the biggest devaluation since the August collapse. Offshore Yuan trading has been violent with a 1000 pips swing on Yuantervention. Dow futures are plunging... WTI trades at a $32 handle... Gold hits $1100.
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Why $1.5 Billion Nevsky Capital Is Shutting Down: The Full Letter





"It is time to accept that what we have done has worked brilliantly for twenty years but does not work anymore and move on. We are confident our process will eventually work again – for the laws of economics will never be repealed – but for now they are suspended and may be for some time; an indefinite period involving indeterminate levels of risk during which we think it would be wrong for us to be the stewards of your money."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

What's Next For Stocks After The New Year's Day 1 Hangover?





After getting hammered on the first trading day of 2016, what can we expect from the stock market?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Another Bank Throws In The Towel: "After 6 Years Of Outperformance" Citi Cuts US Stocks To Underweight





Yesterday JPM, which despite calling for a 2,200 year end price target, paradoxically warned that the regime of "buying dips" is over, and that "we take the view that equities are unlikely to perform well on a 12-24 month horizon" adding that "the regime of buying the dips might be over and selling any rallies might be the new one." So don't buy dips yet somehow the S&P will rise 150 points? Fair enough. Today, it is Citigroup's turn to try to somehow predict both a 12% "gain for global equities in 2016" even as it tells clients to start selling US stocks because "fading EPS momentum and rising Fed funds mean that, after 6 consecutive years of outperformance, we cut the US to Underweight."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Stocks Resume Rout After Massive Chinese Intervention Fails To Lift Shanghai, Calm Traders





After yesterday's historic -6.9% rout in the Shanghai Composite, which saw the first new marketwide circuit breaker trading halt applied to Chinese stocks (on its first day of operation), many were wondering if the Chinese government would intervene in both the once again imploding stock market, as well as China's plunging and rapidly devaluing currency. And, after the SHCOMP opened down -3%, the government did not disappoint and promptly intervened in both the Yuan as well as the stock market, however with very mixed results which global stocks took a sign that the "national team" is no longer focused solely on stocks, and have resumed selling for a second consecutive day. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Byron Wien's Reveals Top 10 Predictions: Expects Stocks To Decline After Predicting 15% Rise In 2015





"The United States equity market has a down year. Stocks suffer from weak earnings, margin pressure (higher wages and no pricing power) and a price- earnings ratio contraction. Investors keeping large cash balances because of global instability is another reason for the disappointing performance."

 
Syndicate content
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!