Equity Markets

And An Even Louder Warning From Goldman: The "Yellen Call" Is Back And Will Limit Further Market Upside

With financial conditions having significantly recovered, it is reasonable to expect that the Yellen call will soon be back in the money following the June FOMC meeting. We believe June is largely off the table given the weakness of Friday’s employment report and the UK referendum on its EU membership in June. But we think the July meeting is live, without our US Economics team seeing a 40% probability of a second hike. With equity markets posting new highs this week, we think the ‘Yellen call’ is on track to move back into the money in 2016H2.

Futures Slide On Rising Dollar As Global Bond Yields Hit Fresh Record Lows

Please do not adjust your screens: that off-green color you are seeing, that is not a malfunction. Yes, for the first time in six days, global stocks are lower with the MSCI all-country world index dipping from a 6 month high dragged down by lower European and Japanese equity markets, as the USDJPY dropped to a fresh five-week low while Treasury yields continued to hit new record lows because, as Bloomberg explains, "traders assessed the outlook for the global economy."

Goldman Turns Downright Gloomy, Warns Market "Despair" Is Coming, Prepare For A Major Drawdown

As Goldman warns in a note overnight, "Large equity drawdowns often mark the end of an equity cycle and tend to coincide with a recession or financial market/geopolitical shock or a combination, which tend to result in a sharp equity correction driven by a decline in both earnings and valuations." As it turns out, Goldman thinks precisely such a "drawdown" is coming...

Futures Levitate To Session Highs As ECB Enters The Bond Market; Crude Hits $51

In an overnight session dominated by the latest political developments out of the US where Hillary Clinton officially claimed the democratic nomination, the financial newsflow focused on China's trade data, where exports fell 4.1% from a year earlier, in line with expectations, but imports dropped 0.4% from a year earlier, the smallest decline since they turned negative in November 2014, driven entire by soaring "imports" from Hong Kong - aka capital outflows - which soared by 243% y/y.  The other main news was the official launch of the ECB's corporate bond buying, which helped drive government bonds yields in German to new record lows, and the average yields on investment-grade corporate debt below 1%.

Futures Flat Ahead Of Strike-Impacted Jobs Report; Commodities Approach Bull Market

After yesterday's two key events, the ECB and OPEC meetings, ended up being major duds, the market is looking at the week's final and perhaps most important event of the week: the May payrolls report to generate some upward volatility and help stocks finally break out of the range they have been caught in for over a year.

Liquidity Panic? A $90 Million Sell Order Crashed China's Futures Market

Seemingly missed by the mainstream media on Monday, Chinese equity futures crashed over 12.5% - the biggest drop since 1995 - only to soar back to unchanged within seconds. This was not a 'fat-finger' trade, and as one trader noted, "liquidity in the market is really thin right now," which is borne out by the evidence. Thanks to government rules disabling "hedging" accounts from holding more than 10 contracts a day, volume (and liquidity) has become practically non-existent since September and so the 12.5% flash crash was driven by just 3 trades totalling just 646 contracts which means a mere $92 million sell order collapsed Chinese equity markets by the most on record.

Global Stocks, US Futures Slide On Mediocre Manufacturing Data, Yen Surge

Following the latest set of global economic news, most notably a mediocre set of Chinese Official and Caixin PMIs, coupled with a mix of lackluster European manufacturing reports and an abysmal Japanese PMI, European, Asian stocks and U.S. stock index futures have continued yesterday's losses. Oil slips for 4th day, heading for the longest run of declines since April, as OPEC ministers gather in Vienna ahead of a meeting on Thursday to discuss production policy. The biggest winner was the Yen, rising 1%, with the USDJPY tumbling overnight and pushing both the Nikkei 1.6% lower and weighing on US futures.

Yuan Tumbles As China PMI Miraculously Hugs The Flatline Despite Steel Industry Orders Crash

Since May 2012, China Manufacturing PMI has miraculously stayed within a 1 point range of the knife-edge 50 level between contraction and expansion. May 2015 just printed 50.1, the same as April with New Orders weaker and business activity expectations (hope) tumbling to 4 month lows. The Steel Industry PMI collapsed from 57.3 to 50.9 with New Steel Orders collapsing from 65.6 to 52.7 - the biggest monthly drop in record. And while non-manufacturing PMI remained in 'expansion territory at 53.1, it fell back from a brief bounce in April with employment and business expectations both weaker. For now, equity markets are unreactive but offshore Yuan is tumbling on the news, not helped by a sizable devaluation in the official fix.

These Are The Two Most Important Questions Facing The Market

The two most important questions by far, those whose answer will determine not only the near term return of the S&P, but also global equity markets as well as that all-important commodity, oil, are the  following: Can the oil price hold up even as the dollar rises;  and, Can the CNY depreciate without hurting asset prices? Here is Deutsche Bank's attempt at an answer.

Futures Flat, Gold Rises On Weaker Dollar As Traders Focus On OPEC, Payrolls

After yesterday's US and UK market holidays which resulted in a session of unchanged global stocks, US futures are largely where they left off Friday, up fractionally, and just under 2,100. Bonds fell as the Federal Reserve moves closer to raising interest rates amid signs inflation is picking up. Oil headed for its longest run of monthly gains in five years, while stocks declined in Europe.

Global Stocks Unchanged; US Futures Rise Above 2,100 As Traders Celebrate Memorial Day

With the US closed for Memorial Day and UK markets also offline, overnight volumes have been weaker than normal on little newsflow. The main story remains the stronger USD which not only led to the lowest Yuan fixing since February 2011 but pushed the USDJPY as high as 111.50 overnight before paring gains. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is unchanged on poor volume, after earlier rising above the 200 DMA for the first time in 2016. US equity futures were 0.2%, or 4 points higher, currently resting just above 2,101 with the last trading day of May tomorrow expected to push the cash market over 2,100 as well.

All Eyes On Yellen: Global Markets Flat On Dreadful Volumes, Oil Slides

In a world where fundamentals don't matter, everyone's attention will be on Janet Yellen who speaks at 1:15pm today in Harvard, hoping to glean some more hints about the Fed's intentionas and next steps, including a possible rate hike in June or July. And with a long holiday in both the US and UK (US bond market closes at 2pm today), it is no surprise overnight trading volumes have been dreadful, helping keep global equities poised for the highest close in three weeks; this won't change unless Yellen says something that would disrupt the calm that’s settled over financial markets.

"We’re Moving To Tackle Systemic Risk" - India Cracks Down On HFT Scourge

While the corrupt and criminal US regulators are unable to do anything to stifle the market domination of algos which have totally destroyed the US equity market, and sucked up enough liquidity where neither buy nor sellsiders can generate a profit, India is already well on its way to crushing the parasitic - and perfectly legal - frontrunners of virtually ever trade. It will do so by increasing penalties on high-speed trading firms that flood exchanges with orders that don’t result into actual transactions, as part of steps aimed at strengthening its oversight of computerized trading.