Equity Markets

Bulls, Bears & The Broken Clock Syndrome

“Put simply, most apparent “opportunities” to obtain investment returns above zero in conventional assets over the coming decade are based on a misunderstanding of valuations, total returns, and historical yield relationships. At current valuations, virtually everything is priced for a decade of zero. The unwinding of these speculative extremes is likely to be chaotic, and will likely occur over a shorter horizon than investors imagine."

BofA Looks At The "What If" Scenario For Bonds: Find A Surprising Result

One of the big fears among the bond market, where most participants now openly admit there is a "bubble in credit", is that an unwind in global bond yields would lead to substantial losses.  To test this assumption, Bank of America's Ralf Preusser looks at the "what if" scenario, namely what would happen to total returns should government yields fully reverse their 30 year historical evolution. What he finds is surprising.

US Futures Fall, European Stocks Rise As Stronger Dollar Sends Oil Lower

European stocks rose and US S&P futures fell after the dollar strengthened following the latest hawkish comments from Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer signalled that a 2016 rate hike is still being considered and again boosted speculation that US rates will rise this year. The rising dollar pressured commodities and notably oil, which dropped 2% breaking a 7 days stretch of increases; emerging markets retreated. 

Morgan Stanley: "This Is The Most Dangerous Time As Hope And Greed Overtake Fear And Loathing"

"It is often said that a rising tide lifts all boats, but perhaps the more pertinent question just now is whether this logic works in reverse... Although equity valuations continue to look extremely attractive relative to bonds, there is always a plausible argument that the equity rally will continue; however, this is potentially the most dangerous time for investors as hope and greed overtake fear and loathing."

Weekend Humor: Cynics & Skeptics Beware

"Reject cynicism. Reject fear" exclaimed an exuberant Barack Obama, adding that "America is already great." The problem with all this bravado is... you can't eat 'hope' and 'faith' does not put gas in the tank.

Global Stocks Drop, US Futures Down As Dollar Rebound Halts Longest Oil Rally In Years

European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all fell in another quiet, low-volume early session. With oil entering a bull market yesterday, and set for its longest run of gains in 4 years after, overnight crude stumbled, and reversed early gains, falling for the first time in seven days driven by rebound in the dollar which gained versus all G-10 currencies with commodity currencies underperforming.

What? Me Worry? Volatility & The Election

2016 is an anomaly. Going into one of the more unpredictable elections, implied volatility is trading at a discount to realized volatility. Strangely, the equity markets trade as if the election results, be it a Clinton or Trump victory, are inconsequential for share prices. That stance is greatly at odds with what many of us think, as well as the palpable anxiety voiced by many traditional and social media outlets.

European Stocks Drop, Futures Flat As Rising Dollar Pressures Oil, EMs: All Eyes On The Fed Minutes

European stocks are down led by tech, chemicals, alongside EM stocks which retreated from near a one-year high and oil fell for the first time in a week after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials revived bets on U.S. interest rate rises this year, and pushed the dollar higher from 7 week lows ahead of today's Fed Minutes. S&P 500 futures were little changed following yesterday's drop from record highs

An Unexpected "Biggest Tail Risk" Emerges Within The Investing Community

According to the latest FMS, the biggest tail risk is no longer Renewed China Devaluation, as was the case in July, followed by "a crash in the European bond market." Instead the biggest concern cited by some 22% of respondents in the month of August was "EU disintegration."