Equity Markets

Why Washington Politics Make Trump's Tax Cuts All But Impossible

Throughout the 2016 Presidential campaign Trump promised American voters that he planned to, among other things, "cut the hell out of taxes."  But despite the promises, the politics and partisanship gripping Washington DC means that Trump's tax reform policies are almost certain to face the same fate as his failed Obamacare repeal effort.

Citi: Central Banks "Took Over" Markets In 2009; In December The "Unwind" Begins

"The rise in return correlations occurred almost exactly at the time when the central banks effectively ‘took over’ markets. However, with the Fed now tightening faster than the market anticipated not long ago, and our economists expecting that it will cease to reinvest maturing securities in its portfolio from December this year, the unwind is underway."

US Stock Funds Suffer Biggest Outflow Since 2015 As Bond Inflows Soar

According to Bank of America in the latest week through April 5, there were $7.4BN in outflows from equities, the largest in 40 weeks. At the same time, bonds recorded $12.4 BN of inflows, the highest in 8 weeks, with Treasuries posting largest inflows in 10 weeks as the "great reflationary rotation" crumbled once again. The focus was entirely on the U.S., where stocks saw the largest outflow since 2015, or in the past 82 weeks, as $14.5 billion was redeemed.

Global Stocks Rebound From Overnight Lows, On Edge Ahead Of Trump-Xi Meeting

S&P futures are little changed at 6am ET, trading at 2347.55 and paring an earlier 0.4 percent drop, on the back of the USDJPY ramp which for the second day in a row has emerged alongside the European open, soothing concerns about the Fed's balance sheet reduction and "some" Fed officials warning that stocks have gotten expensive. While Asian stocks fall in early trading, European bourses rebounded from session lows alongside the S&P and USDJPY.

50% Of Americans Live Payday-To-Payday; 33% Can't Write A $500 Emergency Check

It's been more than seven years since the 'great recession' officially ended, but while Fed policies have successfully generated massive asset bubbles which have accrued solely to the benefit of America's wealthiest, the majority of American families remain as vulnerable to financial disaster as they were during the height of the crisis.

What Could Possibly Go Wrong? - Why This Time Is Not Different

In the 1990s, stocks continued to rise relentlessly for years, even after then Fed Chair Greenspan warned of irrational exuberance in late 1996.  Last decade, the rally in home prices continued as ever more people appeared convinced that home prices never fall.  This time around, we are eight years into a bull market. As in those times, investors have all but given up betting against conventional wisdom...but this time is not different...

Stocks Drop After Fed Minutes, Bonds Unchanged

Despite the warning by "some" Fed members that stocks are "quite high", and another even more implicit warning, that the Fed may have to revise its forecast if "financial markets were to experience a significant correction", the market's initial reaction to the Fed's warning was to ignore it, although in recent minutes there has been a modest acceleration to the downside across equity markets.

China Surge, Rising Oil Push Global Stocks Higher; S&P Futures Flat As Fed Minutes Loom

European stocks rebounded after a downbeat start, aided by a return to the post-Euro open momentum ignition in the USDJPY while Asian stocks rose after China shares surged 1.5%, the most since August. For now S&P futures are fractionally in the red, although we expect them to turn progressively higher as US traders get to their desks to frontrun the now traditional "post open" ramp.

UBS Blames Fed For "Crisis High" Subprime Defaults; Says Auto Is Just The Beginnning

While the Fed's misguided QE and interest rate policies have done a masterful job of creating asset bubbles around the world over the past several years, they've done precious little to actually stimulate economic or wage growth, in real terms...which is why UBS says that subprime defaults on everything from auto loans to student loans are about to get a whole lot worse.

Futures Slide As Weak Start To Q2 Continues Amid Global Growth, Political Jitters

Global stocks were pressured by a poor start to the second quarter in the US, where carmakers reported disappointing sales data, slamming auto stocks around the globe. The selling has persisted for a second day, with Asian stocks, S&P futures fall and European shares all partially in the red today after their biggest decline in two weeks.

Global Stocks, US Futures Rise On First Day Of Q2 As Trump-Xi Meeting Looms

After the best quarter for US stocks since 2015, global equities have started off Q2 on the right foot, despite caution about the upcoming meeting between President Trump and China's Xi Jinping later this week, and Fed Minutes which are expected to be more hawkish than the FOMC statement.

Julian Brigden: "This Is What The 'Armageddon Scenario' For Markets Looks Like"

"My base case is always been that you don't get to the Armageddon scenario with weak data. You actually get to the Armageddon scenario when you actually get strong data. The end game for markets, the most dangerous toxic scenario for markets comes when you've got vastly inflated prices and central banks actually need to hike. "