Equity Markets

What If Hillary Had Won?

Fixed income markets are essentially in a new world; US stocks, by comparison, are in only a slightly better position. The “Trump rally” has only been worth 4-5% when compared to our “What if” Clinton scenario. Realistically, it should either be more (if bond markets are right about a breakout in inflation/corporate pricing power) or less (with higher rates pressuring equity valuations in the absence of greater earnings power).

US Futures, Oil Flat As Greenback Rises Despite Mnuchin's "Strong Dollar" Warning

US equity futures were flat, European stocks rose and Asia was mixed after the dollar posted a modest rebound overnight despite Mnuchin's "strong dollar" comments, while oil was flat and gold fell, as investors focused on President Donald Trump’s plans to boost growth. The pound fell after a U.K. court ruled that Parliament must vote on triggering Brexit.

Futures, Dollar Slide; European Stocks At 3-Week Lows As "Trump Reality Sets In"

While US stocks closed near session, and all time highs on Friday, the first green close on inauguration day in over 50 years, Monday has seen a modest case of buyer's remorse, with European stocks sliding, Asian shares mixed and U.S. futures lower as the dollar weakened for the 3rd consecutive day to a six-week low, dropping as much as 1% against the Yen, as anxious investors awaited more details of Donald Trump’s policies.

S&P Futures, Dollar Rise As World Awaits Trump Inauguration Speech

"All eyes will be on the content and style of Trump's inauguration speech," Morgan Stanley's Hans Redeker wrote in a note.  "The more 'Presidential' this speech comes across, the better the outcome for markets." And as BonY added, "If Trump ramps up the rhetoric the market will be concerned about building long dollar positions."

Global Stocks Dip; Bond Yields, Dollar Rise After Yellen's Rate Guidance; All Eyes On Draghi

European and Asian shares, and S&P futures slipped, while government bond yields jumped to multi-week highs on Thursday after Yellen's hawkish speech. Oil rose after API reported a drop in crude inventories. The euro rebounded as investors look to Mario Draghi to address rising European inflation that make the ECB's stimulative policies look increasingly out of sync.

Trump's (Not So) Invisible Hand

Want to know why US stocks feel so fragile?  Perhaps we can blame Wall Street analysts.  Even after two months of market buzz about lower taxes, infrastructure spending and less regulation juicing investor expectations for better earnings growth, they refuse to bump their revenue or earnings estimates for 2017.