Equity Markets

The Wierdest Thing About 2016 Is...

"Trump wins US Election"? "UK Leaves EU"? "Cubs Win World Series"? How about this one: "The VIX Peaks in February"? For the first time since the start of the modern VIX in 1990, the 'Fear Gauge' peaked in that month...

The Bears Are Dying: Even Bob Janjuah Turns (Somewhat) Bullish

"The trends over H1 2017 should be higher (especially US) equities and yields, steeper curves, a stronger USD, and mixed performance in credit (especially in the IG sphere) and EM. So for me, most likely over the middle two quarters of 2017, I can see the S&P 500 cash index up at 2450 +/- 50 points, with the Nasdaq weakest and the Dow strongest of the big three US indices."

S&P Futures Rise Propelled By Stronger Dollar; Europe At 1 Year High As Yen, Bonds Drop

It appears nothing can stop the upward moment of equities heading into the year end, and as US traders walk in, S&P futures are again higher, proppeled by European stocks which climbed to their highest in almost a year, while the USD rose and bonds and gold fell, failing again to respond to terrorist attacks in Ankara, Berlin and Zurich. The yen tumbled after the BOJ maintained its stimulus plan.

2016 Year In Review

We started this year with the economy deteriorating and finished it with the second interest rate increase in ten years. There were a lot of ups and downs along the way, but ultimately 2016 was defined by three key story-lines:  1) Brexit 2) The Presidential Election 3) Fed Policy. The first two events were votes that shocked the world. The stock market’s reaction to each was arguably even more shocking. 

Markets Award Trump Nobel Prize In Economics

It took only nine days in office for President Obama to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. Likewise, the markets seem to have prematurely greeted Trumponomics as an outstanding success. There’s just one thing: Trump hasn’t done anything yet. We’re still weeks away from his inauguration, and details of his economic plans remain scarce.

Quad Witching Arrives: Futures Steady, Stoxx 50 Erase 2016 Loss As Dollar Steadies

Quad-witching Friday has arrived, which means that alongside thin, pre-holiday liquidity and a jumpy market, we expect to see sharp, volatile moves for the rest of the day, the first of which was just noted in Europe, where stocks moved from session lows to highs in the span of minutes, in the process sending the Euro Stoxx 50 index 0.8% higher and turning it positive on the year as it reached its highest level since December 2015.

Goldman Warns Bond Yields Are Now "A Threat To Risky Assets"

As Goldman warns, should US 10-year rates move above the bank's ‘fair value’, "this would represent a threat to risky assets." Well, 10-year yields are now at what Goldman estimates is "fair value", which means any additional increases from here could lead to a stock market selloff.