Equity Markets

With All Eyes On Trump Tonight, US Futures, Global Stocks Hug The Flatline

With traders focused on President Trump's address to Congress tonight where he is expected to outline his economic priorities and provide plan details, European stocks are little changed for a second day and Asian stocks decline modestly as U.S. futures trade around the flatline. Oil declines, while the dollar is little changed.

Global Stocks Drop, Futures Flat; French Yields Slide As Political Jitters Subside

In a quiet night for markets, in which the top highlight was the Oscar's historic peddling of best picture "fake news" and where "millions" of Academy members seemingly voted illegally, European stocks were little changed after a selloff that pushed them to a two-week low, while the MSCI Asia index fells as Japan’s Topix dropped for third day. S&P futures were unchanged.

Futures Flat, Global Stocks Near Record High After Minutes Fail To Spark Dollar Rally

One day after the FOMC Minutes guided to a rate hike "fairly soon", but not soon enough in the eyes of the market, the dollar has posted minimal gains, while global stocks held near record highs on Thursday; S&P futures were fractionally in the green to start the session; crude climbed after API showed U.S. stockpiles fell. US and euro zone government bond yields fell as European political fears faded.

FOMC Minute Hint At Hike "Fairly Soon", But Warn Trump Policies May "Not Materialize", VIX Too Low

"...the recent increase in equity prices might in part reflect investors’ anticipation of a boost to earnings from a cut in corporate taxes or more expansionary fiscal policy, which might not materialize.... They also expressed concern that the low level of implied volatility in equity markets appeared inconsistent with the considerable uncertainty attending the outlook for such policy initiatives."

European Rally Fizzles, S&P Futures Turn Red As USDJPY Slides, Bunds Strongly Bid

What started off in familiar fashion, with Asian stocks rising, and Europe hitting multi-month highs and US futures in record territory has stumbled in recent minutes following a continued rush for safety in short-dated German Bunds (the 2Y is now trading at -0.92%) and ongoing selling in the USDJPY, which has pushed Stoxx 600 back to unchanged, and S&P futures to modestly red for the session.

The Hope For A "Greater Fool"

The “Greater Fool Theory” surmises there is always a “greater fool” than you in the market to sell to. For Wall Street, that greater fool is you. Haven’t you ever wondered why Wall Street never tells you to “sell and raise some cash?”

A History Of The US Stock Market From 1899 To 2017 In Three Charts

Here are three charts highlighting the dramatic transformation of the US stock market starting in 1899 and continuing through today, showcasing its relative domination of all global equity markets, the relative sizes of world markets, and how dramatically the equity composition has changed over the past 117 years.

SocGen: "The Average Stock Is Still 26% Down From Their All-Time Highs"

"All would appear to be rosy in the equity market with the consensus promising higher EPS growth in 2017 and bond yields remaining reasonably well behaved despite higher headline rates of inflation and a very slightly more hawkish tone from the US Federal Reserve. However scratch below the surface of these headline numbers and all is not as it seems."  -SocGen

Hedge Fund Liquidity Plunges To "Danger Zone" For US Stocks

Simply put, the massively overcrowded hedge fund herding into US equities has created a crisis situation. With liquidity levels at record lows, the market will be unable to smoothly absorb any concerted selling pressure from large money managers.

US Futures, European Stocks Rise Despite HSBC Plunge; Dollar, Oil Jump

European stocks rose again with S&P futures higher, while Asian stocks were mixed. The dollar rose jumped on hawkish comments by Philly Fed's Harker, oil rose following optimistic OPEC comments, while gold dropped. Markets have largely ignored results by financial heavyweight HSBC, which posted its largest fall since mid-2015 after reporting a 62% plunge in pretax profit.

People Are Suddenly Worried About China (Again)

While Trump seemingly remains the only topic worthy of discussion blanketing the airwaves, as the following chart from Goldman demonstrates, it has been China where policy uncertainty has stealthily exploded in the past three months.