Equity Markets

GM Shares Jump 5% After Forecasting Higher 2017 Profits, Strong China Sales, $5 Billion Buyback

GM stock is surging after CEO Mary Barra, who is presenting at Deutsche Bank conference, gave good news to shareholders when she revealed the company's 2017 adjusted EPS forecast, which at $6.00-$6.50 was well above the consensus estimate of $5.73, and also substantially above the 2016 year end guidance which forecast the carmaker would make "at the high end" of a $5.50-$6.00 range.

Party Like The Dow Is 19,999: US Futures Dip As Global Currencies Stumble; Oil Down, Gold Up

European, Asian stocks fall and U.S. equity-index futures traded mixed on Monday with fresh memories of the Dow Jones rising to under 1 point of 20,000 on Friday. The dollar has rebounded on fresh geopolitical concerns, while the pound extends its decline from Friday and has slide to 10 week lows on a Sunday interview from Theresa May which suggested a "Hard Brexit" may be in the cards.

US Futures Flat Ahead Of December Payrolls; Dollar Rebounds

European shares fell modestly, Asian equities declined for the first day in three, and US equity futures were unchanged before the December U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. China’s offshore yuan fell the most in a year to pare a record weekly rally, while Mexico’s peso climbed after the central bank sold dollars. Oil was trading lower in early trading.

What Wall Street Expects From Today's Payrolls Reports

With all eyes likely on wage growth indications in the subtext of tomorrow's payrolls report (following The Fed Minutes' comments on full employment), Goldman Sachs is forecasting a better-than-expected 0.3% rebound in average hourly earnings (helped by more favorable calendar effects) and a better-than-expected 180k payrolls print (albeit with a small rise in the unemployment rate). However, they are careful to note that any downside can be blamed on "a considerable drop in temperatures."

ADP Employment Disappoints As Small Business, Manufacturing Payrolls Shrink

Despite the exuberance of US equity markets and sentiment indicators, ADP reports small businesses cut jobs (-3k) in December (as large businesses added) leaving ADP at 153k (considerably below the 175k expectation). Once again goods producing jobs declined as services improved. This is the 2nd lowest print for ADP since May and Mark Zandi has suddenly become a doomsayer: "As we enter 2017, the tightening labor market will likely slow the growth.”

Risk On: 2017 Stock Rally Continues As Global Inflation Accelerates

Following another day of upbeat economic data, with growing signs that inflation on both sides of the Atlantic is accelerating, investors rediscovered their faith in the Trumpflation rally, pushing global stocks and US equity futures higher, fuelling a second day of 2017 equity gains ahead of today's release of the Fed's December minutes.

2017 Starts Off With A Bang: US Futures, Oil Jump On Upbeat China Data; Europe Enters Bull Market

Rumors of the Trumpflation rally's death have been greatly exagerated, and not only is the Dow 20,000 back on the radar, following a 124 point surge in Dow futures, bringing the "key psychological level" back within 100 points, but European stocks rose for a third day and entered a bull market, rising 20% from theor lows set last February, following strong Chinese manufacturing and services PMI data.

What Keeps Goldman Up At Night About 2017

Between China, credit markets, financial conditions, political uncertainty, the consequences of Brexit, the presidential elections, global trade, the risk of sharp reflation, and the impotence of central banking, here are the top things that keep Goldman Sachs up at night about 2017.

Can The Canadian Oil Industry Recover In 2017?

Even with the recovery in conventional oil and gas looking positive in 2017, the lack of major capital investment in oil sands that has become the norm in the past decade will be painful with no relief in sight.

It's The Dollar, Stupid!

We expect global monetary authorities to protect the dollar as long as they can and we expect them to fail. Stocks and bonds will react violently; stocks and weak credits falling, treasuries prices rising (at first). That failure will lead to hyperinflation – not driven by demand, but rather by central bank money printing. A new global monetary understanding will then emerge.