Ethan Harris

Janet Yellen Is About To Speak: Here's What To Look For

Fed Chair Yellen will be testifying to the House Financial Services committee at 1000EDT, followed by testimony tomorrow before the Senate Banking Committee, however her prepared remarks will be released 90 minutes earlier, at 8:30am. Courtesy of RanSquawk, here are the main things to look for in her prepared testimony as well the subsequent Q&A...

9 Lessons From The Reagan Tax Cuts

A close look at the ’86 tax reform shows why tax reform may not get done this year. As BofAML's Ethan Harris notes, "we are skeptical." Significant tax reform creates winners and losers, which may make it hard to find a "coalition of the willing."

From Reflation To Redistribution: The "War On Inequality" Looms

The bigger picture narrative, according to BofAML's Michael Hartnett, is that the policy baton is passing from Monetary to Fiscal stimulus in 2016/17. Simply put, central bank rate cuts are ending; and new policies to address the populist desire for a "War on Inequality" are emerging. This 'fiscal flip' - as Hartnett describes it - means rotation from 'deflation' to 'inflation' assets... from 'financial' to 'real' assets.

The Fed's Rate Hike Plans Are Now "In Tatters" - What Wall Street Thinks

Any “faint prospect” of a Fed July rate increase has entirely vanished, ING economist Rob Carnell wrote in note adding that the longstanding ING call for Sept. hike looks to be “hanging in tatters.”  Here are more comments, courtesy of Bloomberg, from Wall Steet's so-called experts, none of whom predicted the actual a Brexit outcome, about U.S. monetary policy outlook following the outcome of the U.K. referendum.

Don't Expect Much From Yellen's Speech Today

Anyone hoping for some clarity on the Fed's next steps from Yellen's speech later today, don't hold your breath. If anything, Yellen will do more of the same, which as BofA summarizes, is the following: "It is fair to say that many clients are a bit confused and frustrated with Fed communication. The Fed seems to be constantly changing its focus from one meeting to the next. They seem to regularly promise hikes, only to back off at the last second."

Atlanta Fed Slashes Q1 GDP Estimate To Only 0.1%

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.1 percent on April 8, down from 0.4 percent on April 5. After this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the forecast for the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from –0.4 percentage points to –0.7 percentage points.

"Perma-bears" 2 - BofA Economist 0

"Capital markets seem to be pricing in a 50% or higher probability of a US recession. Our rates team has developed an adjusted yield curve measure that signals a 68% probability of recession."

Bank Of America Admits The U.S. May Already Be In A Recession

"The US Treasury curve is still steep by historical standards. Taken at face value, this may suggest recession odds are small. However, we argue this logic is flawed because the curve is structurally steep when the Fed Funds rate is close to zero. When adjusted for the proximity of rates to zero, the curve may already be inverted and therefore may already be priced for a recession./// Implied recession odds are as high as 64% if the adjusted OIS curve is used"