EuroDollar

June: The Trifecta For Policy Error?

With further deteriorating GDP and other metrics, along with no fiscal stimulus possibly seeing the light of day (meaning actually signed into law) for the rest of 2017, along with a potential government shutdown and a June hike now to be considered a done deal (and a prudent one at that), the possibilities for major 'policy error' are soaring...

Betting Against A June Rate Hike? Something's Going On

We noted yesterday that the recent trend of increased volumes into Eurodollar future out-months was 'odd' but the sudden surge in interest in Eurodollar calls (vs puts) suggests more than just a few prop bets are being placed on the fact that The Fed does not hike rates in June.

Global Markets Thrown For A Loop After Comey's Shocking Sacking

“There is no doubt that Trump is dominating proceedings this morning after the sacking of Comey. This is a political story rather than a market story, but yet again it creates uncertainty in the market, which leaves everything the president does with a cloud floating over it" said James Hughes of GKFX.

Economic Depression And Denial: "We Want To Believe We Aren't Japan"

"And so the longer it goes on, people seem to believe the greater the chance that something just has to go right. It is a happy a comforting thought, aided in emotional manipulation by the constant mainstream optimism. In that belief, every minor uptick is extrapolated far beyond its true significance as that thing that will surely restore positive balance and order."

Bernanke 'Terrifies' Stock Investors, Again

If you are a stock investor, you should be terrified. The most disconcerting words have been uttered by the one person capable of changing the whole dynamic. After spending so many years trying to recreate the magic of the “maestro”, Ben Bernanke in retirement is still at it.

Bond Bears Battered To 5-Month Lows But Rate-Hike Bets Top $3.2 Trillion

Since their peak 'shortedness' in mid-January, US Treasury bond bears have covered 500,000 10-year-equivalent contracts, reducing the net speculative short to its lowest since before Thanksgiving 2016. At the same time, however, Eurodollar shorts (bets on Fed rate hikes) have soared to a new record high (over $3.2 trillion notional).

Futures Flat Ahead Of Yellen As Geopolitical Risks Loom; Fear Barometer Spikes

S&P futures point to a slightly lower open, while Asian and European stocks are likewise modestly in the red. Trading volumes are muted for most markets on Monday with investors spooked by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Korean peninsula. It is also a holiday-shortened week in much of the West.