EuroDollar

All Conundrums Matter

"...the monetary history (including eurodollars) of the 21st century comes out very different than the monetary policy (eurodollars don’t matter) history of the same period. The latter leads to drug addicts and Baby Boomers as an eventual excuse for how QE and ZIRP performed about as well as monetary policy in 2001, 2002, and 2003. The former leads us to answers..."

Italy Bank Bailouts Send European, Global Stocks Higher; Gold Flash Crashes

S&P futures point to a higher open following gains in Asia but mostly Europe, where stocks are sharply higher following the €17 billion bailout of the two Veneto banks in Italy, the biggest taxpayer funded bank rescue in modern Italian history, as well as Dan Loeb's activist campaign of the world's biggest food company, Nestle

If BlackRock And Pimco Are Right, "Another Fed Shock Looms"

"Once bitten, twice eager sounds like a contradiction but it can often seem like standard operating procedure in global markets - just look at the money piling into bets that the Federal Reserve is going nowhere soon with monetary tightening. It’s as if the February shock - when a deluge of Fedspeak made traders realize their bets against a March hike were wrong - never happened." 

Derivative Markets Signal Looming End Of The Business Cycle

While the last five weeks have seen $1.3 trillion of rate-hike bets have already been unwound - the most ever; the derivative market is signaling there is more pain to come as expectations for lower rates are everywhere.

Valuations: It Is Different This Time

"Stock investors have been waiting on the Godot of growth for most of this century and one can’t help but wonder at what point they’ll get up and leave the theater..."

Traders Lose Faith In Fed - Shift Rate-Hike Bets To December

While a June rate-hike is baked in the cake no matter how badly the economic data that The Fed is "dependent" upon collapses, it appears traders are losing faith in the rest of the year as the odds of a hike occuring in December is now above that of September (as both drop to around 25%).

Gold Surges, Global Stocks Slide As "Super Thursday" Risks Loom

With traders realizing that the "Thursday Turmoil Trifecta" looms, world stocks dropped and safe-haven assets rose as investors focused on the growing tension in the Middle East, while caution spread across markets in a week full of risk events including James Comey’s congressional testimony to the ECB’s policy meeting and Britain’s increasingly uncertain election, all in the span of 24 hours. As a result, European and Asian stocks as well as S&P futures all fell, while gold, yen and Treasuries gained.

Simple (Economic) Math - Businesses Are No Longer Willing To Afford Labor

Rising living standards were never the fruit of capital alone, as the real strength was in the combination of it with labor. Over the last few decades, the real capital flow has been with eurodollar finance to the offshoring of productive capacity. By simple mathematics, businesses are no longer willing to afford labor...

Fed Fail? Traders Cut Rate-Hike Bets By The Most In History Last Week

The last two weeks have seen speculators cover over $710 billion worth of Fed rate-hike bets - the biggest move in Eurodollar futures history as Trump concerns and Fed Minutes reignite lost faith in the ebullient future that sparked the creation of a record $3 trillion bet that The Fed will be right this time.