• Tim Knight from...
    11/26/2014 - 19:43
    I read your post Pity the Sub Genius and agreed with a lot of what you wrote. However you missed what I think is the biggest killer of middle class jobs, and that is technological...

EuroDollar

Tyler Durden's picture

WTF Chart Of The Day: Treasury Trading Edition





Presented with little comment aside to say - WTF!!

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Clueless", Reaccomodating Fed Spurs Epidemic Of Record Low Yields Around The Globe





  • IRELAND SELLS 10-YEAR BONDS AT RECORD-LOW YIELD OF 1.63%
  • GERMAN 10-YEAR BUNDS RISE; YIELD FALLS 2 BASIS POINTS TO 0.88%
  • DUTCH 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD DROPS TO RECORD-LOW 1.021%
  • PORTUGUESE 10-YEAR BOND YIELD DROPS TO RECORD-LOW 2.942%
  • FRENCH 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS DROP TO RECORD-LOW 1.214%
  • U.S. 10-YEAR NOTE YIELD DROPS TO 2.296%, LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2013
  • SPANISH 10-YEAR BOND YIELD DROPS TO RECORD-LOW 2.038%
  • FINNISH 10-YEAR YIELD DROPS TO 1% FOR FIRST TIME ON RECORD
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Gross PIMCO Exit Sparks Record Liquidations In Short-End Of Yield Curve





It appears wherever one looks in the markets there are the skidmarks of PIMCO adjusting to life after Bill Gross. First it was MBS (and related derivatives), then CDS indices adjusted as redemption expectations raised risk premia, and now it is the short-end of the Treasury curve. As The FT notes, 3-month Eurodollar futures (instruments enabling traders to bet on the front-end of the yield curve and thus more accurately pinpoint their bets on Fed actions) saw asset managers (cough PIMCO cough) liquidate a record 868,853 contracts in the week to September 30 – the largest one-week change on record (each contract has a notional value of $1m). This dramatic shift suggests both a disagreement with Gross' "new normal" view of rates lower for longer (since liquidation is concentrated around the 2-year maturities) and a need to meet liquidity requirements from redemption requests.

 
Marc To Market's picture

Near-Term Dollar Outlook





There may be one great conspiracy dictating the course of the capital market, but if there is not, what is the near-term outlook for the dollar?  

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Federal Reserve Explains How Its Crystal Ball Works





The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) has built a new crystal ball (technically a DSGE model) as part of its efforts to forecast the U.S. economy. In part 1 of a week-long series - to provide some background on the model, its use for policy analysis and forecasting, as well as its forecasting performance - they briefly discuss what DSGE models are and explain their usefulness as a forecasting tool.

 
Marc To Market's picture

Scottish Jitters Past Peak?





Quick update, and outline of reasons to suspect anxiety over Scottish independence has peaked. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Jackson Hole: 'Tremendous' Downside Risks If Yellen Doesn't Go Full-Dovish





The consensus expectation is overwhelming that Fed Chair Yellen will deliver a dovish message at Jackson Hole. Macro investors have largely eliminated their short Treasury position and look to be long risk, particularly via equities and EM. FX positioning is long USD and long EM, the long USD largely because the euro zone economy is slipping again and the ECB is hinting at further ease. Our question is whether Yellen can be more dovish than what is now priced in, not whether she will be dovish on the Richter scale of dovishness. Full dovish, semi-dovish, or contingent dovish.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Previewing Tomorrow's 'Anti-Goldilocks' Payrolls Data





It appears - judging by today's shenanigans - that good news for Main Street (rising employment costs) is bad news (for stocks), though obviously there are other factors; but tomorrow's payrolls data is the last best hope before the Fed finishes its taper for them to pull a 'data-driven' U-turn out of the bag. Consensus is for a drop from last month's exuberance at 288k to 230k (with Barclays slightly cold and Deutsche slightly hot). The fear, for market bulls, is that the print is anti-goldilocks now - not bad enough to provide excuses for lower-longer Fed rates; and not high enough to justify the hockey-stick of miraculous H2 growth priced into stocks. Average S&P gains on NFP Friday are 0.5% but recently have become more noisy.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Epic Portugal Damage Control To Preserve Bank Confidence: BES Resumes Trading, Surges Then Tumbles





This clown parade of clueless opinions (did we mention Goldman had BES at a buy until this morning?), stretched all the way to the very top with Bank of Portugal itself issuing the following pearl:

  • BANK OF PORTUGAL SAYS BES DEPOSITORS CAN STAY CALM

Uhhh, what else would the Portugal central bank say? Panic and withdraw your deposits from a bank whose exposures to insolvent entities have been largely unknown until today (and even now).

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The $1.5 Trillion Short And Noisy Inflation Trades





On the day after Chairman Yellen’s press conference, investors aggressively bid up inflation trades across numerous asset classes. Gold and silver rallied sharply, TIPS implied inflation breakevens widened (despite a new slug of 30-year supply), Treasury yields rose, and the yield curve steepened. Based on investor positioning and market sentiment (CFTC’s Commitment of Traders data show record net short positions exceeding $1.5 trillion in notional rates exposure among speculators in the eurodollar futures markets), there’s decent potential for additional gains in these inflation expressions in the days and weeks ahead.

 
Capitalist Exploits's picture

Trading Floor Insights - How to Protect Against an Inevitable Risk





It is highly likely that bond markets come under pressure and interest rates rise within the next five years. Do you have an insurance policy against that?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Bernanke Shocker: "No Rate Normalization During My Lifetime"





Forget all the talk about "dots", "6 months", or any other prognostication from the Fed's new leadership about what will happen in the near and not so near future. For the real answer prepare to shelve out the usual fee of $250,000 for an hour with the Chairsatan, or read Reuters' account of what others who have done so, have learned. The answer is a stunner. "At least one guest left a New York restaurant with the impression Bernanke, 60, does not expect the federal funds rate, the Fed's main benchmark interest rate, to rise back to its long-term average of around 4 percent in Bernanke's lifetime. "Shocking when he said this," the guest scribbled in his notes. "Is that really true?" he scribbled at another point, according to the notes reviewed by Reuters."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

A Stumped Deutsche Bank Has 11 Reasons (Or "Excuses") Why Everyone Is Buying Treasurys





Many are perplexed by the 'strength' in Treasuries as yields collapse despite a headline payroll print propagandized (choosing to be non-believers in the bond-market's all-knowing eye). As Deutsche Bank notes, for well established reasons, a multi-decade Pavlovian response to much stronger than expected US data has been higher Treasury yields, which usually provides some USD lift. Last Friday, this plainly did not work, which proved extremely costly for many in the trading community. At a minimum Pavlov’s dog choked, but is Pavlov’s dog dead? The short answer is no, but Pavlov’s dog may have taken off the summer.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Algos Concerned By Sudden USDJPY Tumble, But Then They Remember It Is Tuesday





In this brave New Normal world, a Chinese contraction is somehow expected to be offset by a rebound in Europe's worst economies, because following China's latest PMI miss, overnight we were told of beats in the Service PMI in Spain (56.5, vs Exp. 54.0, a 7 year high sending the Spanish 10 Year to fresh sub 3% lows), Italy at 51.1, vs Exp. 50.5, also pushing Italian yields to record lows, and France 50.4 (Exp. 50.3). We would speculate that macro events such as these, as fabricated as they may be, are relevant or even market-moving, but they aren't - all that matters is what the JPY and VIX traders at the NY Fed do in a low volume tape, usually in the last 30 minutes of the trading day. And since the trading day today happens to be a Tuesday, and nothing ever goes down on a Tuesday, the outcome is pretty much clear, and not even the absolutely abysmal Barclays earnings report has any chance of denting the latest rigged and manufactured low-volume levitation.

 
Syndicate content
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!