European Central Bank

Frontrunning: May 25

  • World stocks hit record after Fed minutes (Reuters)
  • OPEC extends oil output cut by nine months to fight glut (Reuters)
  • Father and Brother of Manchester Bomber Arrested in Libya (BBG)
  • In testing Montana vote for Trump, Republican caught up in brawl (Reuters)
  • NATO to Take New Counterterrorism Measures (WSJ)

ECB Warns Of "Excessive Exuberance" In House Prices; Sees Financial Instability Due To Higher Yields

In an unexpected two-part warning from the ECB, the European Central Bank warned of “excessive exuberance” in some European housing markets, driven by offshore buyers, that could spread to other areas in a “ripple effect.” Separately, the ECB also said "debt-sustainability concerns" have risen in the past six months amid a potential increase in yields and political uncertainty in some countries.

China Downgrade Forgotten As Asia Closes Higher, Futures Flat Ahead Of Fed Minutes

Not even last night's Moody's credit downgrade of China - the first since 1989 - could dent the global stock rally which has pushed global stock prices to all time highs. After initially sliding, regional stocks and emerging Asian currencies pared early losses following the unexpected downgrade of China, taking their cue from the "sudden reversal" of the Shanghai Composite Index, which some speculated saw the latest intervention of the "national team."

The Great Misconception Of A Return To "Normal"

The narrative seems to be that 2009 was a one off event and that the central banks role was and still is to "stabilize" the situation until things "normalize". But right there...that idea that 2009 was a "one-off" or "abnormal" couldn't be more wrong. 

Europe, US Futures Slip Despite Brent Bouncing Back To $51

Asian stocks rise lifted by commodity names; European equites trade mostly lower but with little in the way of conviction or firm direction while the Italian banking index is at the highest level in a year following domestic earnings; S&P index futures are modestly in the red after the cash market closed at a record high Wednesday and investors prepared for earnings from retailers.

Macron Victory Leads To "Risk Macr-Off" In Europe, Poor China Trade Data Doesn't Help

It was supposed to be Risk Macr-ON after Emmanuel Macron's avalanche victory in Sunday's French presidential elections; instead as some banks cautioned and as we showed early in the overnight session, the market reaction has been the opposite with the victory fully priced in and especially in the European currencies and stocks, as well as S&P futures, we have seen a modest episode of Risk Macr-Off.