• EconMatters
    11/24/2015 - 14:25
    Focus on policies promoting economic growth, lower taxes, and spending tax receipts more efficiently and not on one`s sexual orientation in the bedroom.

European Central Bank

EconMatters's picture

Current Copper Price Below Cost of Production

Fed Speak became hawkish to telegraph to financial markets that the December meeting was a potential live meeting for a rate rise.

Tyler Durden's picture

Global Stocks Tread Water After Two Consecutive Terrorist Scares; Oil Rises, Industrial Metals Tumble

If this weekend's gruesome terrorist attack on Paris ended up being hugely bullish for stocks, then two subsequent events, a stadium-evacuation scare in Hannover (where Angela Merkel was supposed to be present) and a raid in north Paris which left several dead in the ongoing manhunt against the alleged ISIS mastermind, appear to have but some question into if not stocks then algos whether a rising wave of terrorist hatred across Europe is truly what central bankers need to unleash more QE. That said, we expect the current weakness to last only until the traditional USDJPY carry ramp pushes stocks traditionally higher.

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: November 16

  • Belgian Police 'Arrest' Public Enemy No.1 (Sky News)
  • France Widens Crackdown at Home as Bombs Rain on Islamic State (BBG)
  • Putin Goes From G-20 Pariah to Player at Obama Turkey Talk (BBG)
  • Paris Attacks: 150 Raids as France Goes to 'War With Terrorism' (NBC)
  • 'Rocket Launcher Found' In French Police Raids (Sky)
  • Geopolitical worries lift oil after Paris attacks, but glut weighs (Reuters)
  • Japan's economy falls back into recession again (BBC)
Tyler Durden's picture

Futures Extend Slide; Europe Has Biggest Weekly Drop In 2 Months; Commodities At 16 Year Lows

For once, the overnight session was not dominated by weak Chinese economic data (which probably explains why the Shanghai Composite dropped for the second day in a row, declining 1.4%, and ending an impressive run since the beginning of November) and instead Europe took the spotlight with its own poor data in the form of Q3 GDP which printed below expectations at 0.3% Q/Q, down also from the 0.4% increase in Q2, with several key economies rolling over including Germany, Italy, and Spain while Europe's poster child of "successful austerity" saw Q3 GDP stagnate, far worse than the 0.5% growth consensus expected.

Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Is Another Deflationary Spiral About to Hit?

Inflation expectations are collapsing in the EU, Japan and the US. Is another deflationary spiral about to hit?

Tyler Durden's picture

The ECB Should Stop QE Before Draghi Causes A "Financial Crisis", German "Wise Men" Warn

"The ECB’s bond buying programme has created favourable financing conditions and provides member states with an incentive to defer much-needed budget consolidation and structural reforms. However, further structural reforms to strengthen markets and competitiveness are crucial for a self-sustaining economic recovery. In addition, monetary policy is leading to a build-up of risks to financial stability which could pave the way for a new financial crisis."

Tyler Durden's picture

EUR Slides On News ECB May Expand QE To Muni Bonds Next

After a disappointingly un-uber-dovish speech this morning by Draghi,it appears The ECB needed to full ease-tard to make sure 'markets' believe. EURUSD tumbld 50 pips - to the lows of the day - after Reuters reports that, in what is becoming increasingly clear desperation, The ECB is mulling buying the debt of cities and regions.

Tyler Durden's picture

Mind The New Lows - Copper, Junk Credit, & More

Once again we feel the close tug of systemic illiquidity as it transcends the usual noise about assurances to ignore or trivialize all this growing uncertainty. Even though stocks and other assets have been trading in their own world mostly free from all this more hidden esoterica, the full weight of this analysis suggests that can’t be more than a temporary deviation. Since it is the angle of economy that is ultimately driving all of this, everything depends upon a global economy that has already been beaten down far past anticipation.

Tyler Durden's picture

Crude Crashes, Silver Slammed After Dollar Surge On More ECB Jawboning

Commodity pices are crumbling this morning as more jawboning of a "big cut" from The ECB has sparked further EUR weakness and thus USD strength (EURUSD 1.0740).  WTI's morning bounce (after flash-crashing at the Asia open) has been erased and new lows are looming. Silver is back at a $14 handle and Gold is holding below $1100.

Tyler Durden's picture

"Let's Go For A Big Cut" - ECB "Consensus Forming" For Far Greater Negative Rates, Reuters Reports

Compare and contrast:

- In the US, after 7 years of ZIRP and QE, the expected December rate hike is supposed to push up inflation and confirm the economy is improving; it is naturally bullish for stocks.
- In Europe, a year and a half of NIRP and a year of QE, a December rate cut further into negative territory is supposed to push up inflation and confirm the economy is improving; it is naturally bullish for stocks.

Tyler Durden's picture

The Next Level of John Law Type Central Planning Madness

The cries for going totally crazy are growing louder... the lunatics are running the asylum. One shouldn’t underestimate what they are capable of. The only consolation is that the day will come when the monetary cranks will be discredited again (for the umpteenth time). Thereafter it will presumably take a few decades before these ideas will rear their head again (like an especially sturdy weed, the idea that inflationism can promote prosperity seems nigh ineradicable in the long term – it always rises from the ashes again). The bad news is that many of us will probably still be around when the bill for these idiocies will be presented.

Tyler Durden's picture

Weekend Reading: Copious Contemplations

"After many years of ultra-accommodative polices, it is clear that ongoing interventions have failed to boost actual economic growth and only exacerbated the destruction of the middle class. It is clear that employment growth has only been a function of population growth, as witnessed by the ongoing decline in the labor-force participation rates and the surging levels of individuals that have fallen out of the work-force. While we will continue to operate to foster maximum employment and price stability, the reality is that the economy overall remains far to weak to sustain higher interest rates or any tightening of monetary policy."  

Tyler Durden's picture

Monetary Bazookas Or Not, "Global Crisis Is Inevitable"

Until recently, the consensus assumed a strengthening of the global economy in 2016. It won’t happen. If the global economic growth manages to reach 3.1% next year, as forecast by the IMF, it will be a miracle. We are close to the end of the current economic cycle. The outbreak of a new global crisis in the coming years is inevitable.  The Fed and other central banks are in a dead-end having fallen in the same trap as the Bank of Japan. If they increase rates too much, they will precipitate another financial crisis. It is impossible to stop the accommodative monetary policy.

Tyler Durden's picture

6 Reasons To Be Bullish (Or Not) On Stocks

While there are certainly reasons to be "hopeful" that stocks will continue to rise into the future, "hope" has rarely been a fruitful investment strategy longer term. Therefore, let's analyze each of the optimist's arguments from both perspectives to eliminate "confirmation bias." 

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