European Central Bank

It's The Debt, Stupid - Massive Borrowing Binge Producing Fake Recovery

Taken together recent economic data paint a picture of a global economy that’s finally returning to the kind of solid growth and steady, positive inflation that most people consider both normal and good. Unfortunately, the reason for the improvement is emphatically not good: In 2016 the world borrowed a huge amount of money and spent the proceeds. The result is “growth,” but not sustainable growth.

The Only Man In Europe Who Makes Any Sense

Beppe Grillo wants to break that chain. And he’s got a recipe to do it. It may not be perfect or foolproof, but who cares when it’s replacing something that no longer functions at all, that just drags us down and threatens our children’s lives? Our so-called democracies exist to please our leaders and elites, not ourselves. And we’re unlikely to figure that one out until it’s way too late."

Nomi Prins' Political-Financial Road Map For 2017

Today, the only thing keeping a lid on financial calamity is epic amounts of artisanal money. Deregulating an inherently corrupt and coddled banking industry, already floating on said capital assistance, would inevitably cause another crisis during Trump’s first term.

A Biased 2017 Forecast, Part 1

"We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events..."

Italy Slams ECB For Revealing It Has A "Bank Run" Problem

"It would have been useful, if not kind, to have a bit more information from the ECB about the criteria that led to this assessment," Italy's economy minister Pier Carlo Padoan told Il Sole 24 Ore, as he slammed the ECB. "I was a bit surprised to receive the news, out of the blue and on Christmas day."

Frontrunning: December 29

  • Russia's Putin says Syrian government, opposition sign ceasefire deal (Reuters)
  • Snap’s IPO Pitch to Tout Service as ‘the Next Facebook’ (WSJ)
  • What History Has to Say About the Economy Trump Will Inherit (BBG) - zero mentions of the word "debt"
  • Trump tax reforms could depend on little-known 'scoring' panel (Reuters)
  • Debbie Reynolds Dies a Day After Daughter Carrie Fisher (BBG)
  • U.S. appeals court rejects SEC's use of administrative law judges (Reuters)

Global Debt Sales Hit A Record $6.6 Trillion In 2016

Courtesy of record low rates throughout most of 2016, overall debt issuance in the year rose to just over $6.6 trillion, breaking the previous annual record set in 2006. Corporations accounted for more than half of the $6.6 trillion, while the rest included sovereign bonds sold through syndication, US and international agencies, mortgage-backed securities and covered bonds.

Dave Collum's 2016 Year In Review - "And Then Things Got Really Weird..."

"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."

Frontrunning: December 21

  • Futures little changed after Dow, Nasdaq hit records (Reuters); Europe Stocks’ Rally Dims as Banks Drop; Oil Gains (BBG)
  • Monte dei Paschi says could run out of liquidity after four months (Reuters)
  • Spanish Banks Lose EU Case on Mortgage Interest Repayments (BBG)
  • Russia says trust needed for global oil output deal to be success (Reuters)
  • U.S. plays down absence from Moscow talks on Syria, says not 'sidelined' (Reuters)

Monte Paschi Crashes To All Time Low, Rebounds After Government Agrees To Fund Bank Bailouts

In early European trading, shares of Italy's Monte Paschi halted after crashing 17%, dropping to fresh all time lows, after the bank warned its liquidity could run out far sooner than expected. But then, moments ago, its shares soared, recovering all losses when Italy's upper house of parliament approved a government request to borrow up to €20 billion to underwrite the country's troubled banks.

Brace Yourself For Italy's Bankruptcy

"The diagnosis is simply that Italy has become woefully uncompetitive, and as a result, is not solvent. This much is clear from the perilous state of its banking system, which is always the outcome when banks lend to firms that have been rendered uncompetitive by some reckless central banker..., This has to be the most well-telegraphed, and now inevitable, national bankruptcy that I have seen in my 45-year career."