European Central Bank

Central Bankers To The Masses: "Let Them Eat Rate"

A new generation of revolutionary central bankers must be called to arms for all of our sake. Their battle cry: We commit to never returning rates to zero or below again, to never let be money be free and forever ensure there is a true cost associated with borrowing. Release the markets to set interest rates now and forever! Will it work? Stranger things have been known to succeed in capitalistic economies with competitive and freely functioning markets.

"The Damage Could Be Massive" - How Central Banks Trapped The World In Bonds

Yields on $7.8 trillion of government bonds have been driven below zero by worries over global growth, forcing investors looking for income to flood into debt with maturities of as long as 100 years. Worse still, as Bloomberg reports, central banks’ policy is exacerbating matters, as the unprecedented debt purchases to spur their economies have soaked up supply and left would-be buyers with few options. This has driven the 'duration' - or risk sensitivity - of the bond market to a record high, meaning, as one CIO exclaimed, even with a small increase in rates "the positions are so huge that the damage can be massive... People are complacent."

The SPV Loophole: Draghi Just Unleashed "QE For The Entire World"... And May Have Bailed Out US Shale

"The ECB stands ready to buy bonds from Euro Area issuers even when their parent companies are outside of the bloc. Already we can find a number of US, UK and Swiss headquartered names that issue out of SPVs incorporated in the Euro Area. If this trend to SPV issuance catches on, then the ECB’s policies will likely be very reflationary for all credit markets across the globe, and because of a likely refinancing wave – equity markets too."

ECB Releases Full Details Of Its Corporate Bond Buying Program

  • The CSPP aims to further strengthen the pass-through of the Eurosystem’s asset purchases to the financing conditions of the real economy.
  • Purchases will start in June 2016.
  • The CSPP will be carried out by six national central banks acting on behalf of the Eurosystem, coordinated by the ECB.
  • In combination with other non-standard measures, the programme will provide further monetary policy accommodation and help inflation rates return to levels below, but close to, 2% in the medium term.

Sweden's Riksbank Unexpectedly Boosts QE To Weaken Currency; Krona Jumps

In a surprise move, earlier today Sweden's Riksbank announced that it would expand the country's QE program by another 45 billion kroner - consensus was for no increase - while keeping its rate at the already record negative -0.50%. "With continued expansionary monetary policy abroad, there is a risk that the krona will appreciate earlier and faster than in the forecast," the Riksbank said.  Even more surprising was the currency reaction: instead of weakening the SEK, the currency strengthened.

Crude Slides After Kuwait Strikes Ends; China Markets Tumble

The biggest catalyst for overnight markets, first reported on this site, was the announcement by Kuwait that its oil workers had ended their strike which disrupted oil production in the 4th largest OPEC producer for 3 days cutting it by as much as 1.7 mmb/d, and had served to offset the negative news from the Doha debacle. Kuwait Petroleum also added that it would boost output to 3m b/d within 3 days, which in turn has pressured the price of oil overnight, and the May WTI contract was back to just over $40 at last check, sliding 2%. Not helping things was a very dejected Venezuela oil minister Eulogio Del Pino who said at a conference in Moscow that he sees oil prices returning to lows in 3-4 weeks if oil producers can't make a deal. For now the algos - and central banks - disagree.

S&P To Open Above 2,100, Eyes All Time High As Global Markets Surge, Crude Rises Above $40

If asking traders where stocks and oil would be trading one day after a weekend in which the Doha OPEC meeting resulted in a spectacular failure, few if any would have said the S&P would be over 2,100, WTI would be back over $40 and the VIX would be about to drop to 12 and yet that is precisely where the the S&P500 is set to open today, hitting Goldman's year end target 8 months early, and oblivious of the latest batch of poor earnings news, this time from Intel and Netflix, both of which are sharply lower. We expect that after taking out any 2,100 stops, the S&P will then make a solid effort to take out all time highs, now just over 1% away.

Pushed Too Far - The Inveitable Costs Of The "Perpetual Money Machine"

It must be tempting for the believers to again revel in the brute power of the “perpetual money machine.” Yet the costs associated with the latest round of monetary inflation are steep. Not many months ago it appeared that China was determined to rein in excess, while the U.S. was ready to lead the world toward policy normalization. Today it’s become rather obvious that China is out of control and global policymakers are trapped at near zero or negative rates and perpetual QE monetary inflation. What was always sold as temporary extraordinary measures is increasingly recognized as desperate “whatever it takes” indefinitely.