European Central Bank

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras allows the Greek people to decide their own fate via a democratic referendum. That’s enough to send the troika – the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Commission (EC), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) - into a paroxysm of rage. Here, in a nutshell, is everything one needs to know about the EU “dream”.

"Greek banks are preparing contingency plans for a possible “bail-in” of depositors amid fears. The plans, which call for a “haircut” of at least 30 per cent on deposits above €8,000, sketch out an increasingly likely scenario for at least one bank, the sources said."

The ECB is moving to backstop Bulgaria's banking sector in an effort to get ahead of a Greek contagion."The ECB would provide access to its refinancing operations, offering euros to the banking system against eligible collateral," Bloomberg reports, citing unnamed sources. 

• WHEN ARE RESULTS DUE?
  
• WHAT ARE GREEKS BEING ASKED TO VOTE ON?
  
• WHAT DO THE POLLS SHOW?
  
• WHAT IF IT’S YES?
  
• WHAT IF IT’S NO?
  
• HOW WILL MARKETS REACT?

The Greece impasse set to culminate on Sunday continues to have a massive impact on at least one stock market, unfortunately it is the wrong one, located on a continent which is mostly irrelevant to the future of the Greek people (unless that whole AIIB bailout does take place of course). We are, of course, talking about China which as noted earlier, started off horribly, plunging over 7% with over 1000 stocks hitting 10% limit down, then in the afternoon session mysteriously recovering all losses and even trading slightly higher on the day, before the late selling returned once more, and the Shanghai Composite plunged to close down 5.8%: an unimaginable 20% total roundtrip move!

"Merkel's fear was that Athens would be unable to overcome its problems even with an additional haircut, since it would not be able to handle the remaining debt... Within the German cabinet, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schnaeuble alone continued to strongly back another haircut... with IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde described as undecided on the issue."

It's deja vu all over again.

Just hours after Greece became the first developed country to default to the IMF, as a result being expelled from its existing bailout program, a little before 5am CET news hit that Greek PM Tsipras was willing to concede to virtually all creditor demands, with a few exceptions. As the FT first reported, "Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras will accept most of the bailout creditors’ conditions offered last weekend, but is still insisting on a handful of changes that could thwart a deal according to a letter he sent late on Tuesday night."

With capital controls already imposed on Greece, some have wondered if this is as bad as it gets. Unfortunately, as the Cyprus "template" has already shown us, for Greece the nightmare on Eurozone street is just beginning.

*IMF SAYS GREECE FAILED TO MAKE PAYMENT DUE TUESDAY
*IMF BOARD INFORMED THAT GREECE IS NOW IN ARREARS

In waht appears to be some level of German backing down, fiery FinMin Schaeuble has, reportedly said the following:

*SCHAEUBLE SAID TO SAY GREECE MAY BE ABLE TO TAP EU SUPPORT FUND
*SCHAEUBLE SAID TO SEE GREECE STAYING IN EURO EVEN IF 'NO' VOTE

Thus spurring the probability of a consequence-less "no" vote on Sunday enabling the increased negotiating position that The Greek government had hoped for. Of course, desperate for any excuse, stocks and EUR are rallying on this and bonds are selling off.

GREEK FINANCE MINISTER SAYS GREECE WILL NOT PAY IMF ON TUESDAY.

Update: GREEK BANKS TO REMAIN CLOSED UNTIL JULY 6 : KATHIMERINI

Despite the reassurances from any and all elected (and unelected) officials, given the run on bank ATMs in Greece has turned into a stampede, it is not surprising that the CEO of Piraeus Bank just announced Greek banks would remain closed for at least one week; further as reported yesterday, the Greek stock market will also remain closed. 

A little under 24 hours before Europe opens for trading, and just under 12 hours before the open of equity futures, and things are not looking good.

Multiple “emergency” meetings have been scheduled for Sunday as EU officials scramble to figure out how best to deal with what is likely to be a turbulent week and to consider the impact a potential Grexit will have on the currency bloc, its member nations and institutions, and on the global financial system as a whole. Meanwhile, Germany assesses Grexit damage.

Update: As expected, the Greek parliament has voted in favor of the referendum announced Saturday by PM Alexis Tsipras.