European Central Bank
If there is one lesson to be learned from the Japanese experience with deleveraging over the past few decades it’s that deleveraging cycles have there own special rhythm of reflationary and deflationary interludes. Pretty simple thinking as balance sheet deleveraging by definition cannot be a short term process given the prior decades required to build up the leverage accumulated in any economic/financial system. If deleveraging were a short term process, it would play out as a massive short term depression. And clearly any central bank would act to disallow such an outcome, exactly has been the case not only in Japan over the last few decades, but now also in the US and the Eurozone. We just need to remember that this is a dance. There is an ebb and flow to the greater (generational) deleveraging cycle. Just as leveraging up was not a linear process, neither will the process of deleveraging be linear. Why bring this larger picture cycle rhythm up right now? The recent price volatility we’ve seen in assets that can be characterized as offering purchasing power protection within the context of a global central banking community debasing currencies as their preferred method of reflation for now, specifically recent the price volatility of gold.
Bill Gross Exposes "The New Paranormal" In Which "The Financial Markets And Global Economies Are At Great Risk"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2012 07:50 -0500
In his latest letter, Bill Gross, obviously for his own reasons, essentially channels Zero Hedge, and repeats everything we have been saying over the past 3 years. We'll take that as a compliment. Next thing you know he will convert the TRF into a gold-only physical fund in anticipation of the wrong-end of the "fat tail" hitting reality head on at full speed, and sending the entire house of centrally planned cards crashing down. "How many ways can you say “it’s different this time?” There’s “abnormal,” “subnormal,” “paranormal” and of course “new normal.” Mohamed El-Erian’s awakening phrase of several years past has virtually been adopted into the lexicon these days, but now it has an almost antiquated vapor to it that reflected calmer seas in 2011 as opposed to the possibility of a perfect storm in 2012. The New Normal as PIMCO and other economists would describe it was a world of muted western growth, high unemployment and relatively orderly delevering. Now we appear to be morphing into a world with much fatter tails, bordering on bimodal. It’s as if the Earth now has two moons instead of one and both are growing in size like a cancerous tumor that may threaten the financial tides, oceans and economic life as we have known it for the past half century. Welcome to 2012...For 2012, in the face of a delevering zero-bound interest rate world, investors must lower return expectations. 2–5% for stocks, bonds and commodities are expected long term returns for global financial markets that have been pushed to the zero bound, a world where substantial real price appreciation is getting close to mathematically improbable. Adjust your expectations, prepare for bimodal outcomes. It is different this time and will continue to be for a number of years. The New Normal is “Sub,” “Ab,” “Para” and then some. The financial markets and global economies are at great risk."
First Morgan Stanley issued the first market forecast of 2012 before the market has even opened, and now it is Greece's turn to threaten fire and brimstone (aka to leave the Eurozone, but according to UBS and everyone else in the status quo the two are synonymous) within hours of the New Year, if the second bailout, which as far as we recall was arranged back in July 2011, is not secured. Quote the BBC: ""The bailout agreement needs to be signed otherwise we will be out of the markets, out of the euro," spokesman Pantelis Kapsis told Skai TV." And cue several million furious Germans and tomorrow's German newspaper headlines telling Greece bon voyage on its own as it commences braving the treacherous waters of hyperinflation. In other news, the sequel to Catch 22 is in the works, and explains how Greek tax collectors (i.e., people who collect those all important taxes so very needed for government revenues) continues to strike. In it we also learn that the first strike of the year in Athens is already in place, with Greek doctors saying they will treat only emergency cases until Thursday, in protest at changes to healthcare provision. All in all, the complete collapse of the Greek debt slave society is proceeding just as planned.
When losing is "winning".
ECB Has €444 Billion PIIGS Exposure, A 4.25% Drop In Asset Values Would Bankrupt European Central BankSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/07/2011 06:23 -0500
As if insolvent European private banks were not enough to worry about (and with banking assets of 461 percent of GDP in the UK, 178 percent in Germany, and 820 percent in Switzerland, there is more than enough to worry about), a new study by Open Europe has found that at the heart of the insolvency argument is none other than the only hedge fund that is even worse capitalized than the US Federal Reserve: the European Central Bank. "With Greece forced to seek a second bail-out to avoid bankruptcy, Open Europe has today published a briefing cataloguing how the eurozone crisis could drive the European Central Bank itself into insolvency, with taxpayers likely to pick up a big chunk of the bill. The role of the ECB in the ongoing eurozone and banking crisis has been significantly understated. By propping up struggling eurozone governments and providing cheap credit to ailing banks, the ECB has put billions worth of risky assets on its books. We estimate that the ECB has exposure to struggling eurozone economies (the so-called PIIGS) of around €444bn – an amount roughly equivalent to the GDP of Finland and Austria combined. Of this, around €190bn is exposure to the Greek state and Greek banks. Should the ECB see the value of its assets fall by just 4.25%, which is no longer a remote risk, its entire capital base would be wiped out." It seems that in crafting "prudent" capitalization ratios courtesy of Basel 1 through infinity, the global NWO regulators totally let the ECB slip through the cracks. The finding also confirms what we have been saying all along: there is no way that any form of voluntary or involuntary phase transition that will require the ECB to mark down assets that it has on its books at par (yet are worth 50 cents on the dollar) can ever occur: such an event would result in the immediate insolvency of the European lender of first and last resort, and, in turn, the unravelling of the Eurozone.
As we speculated earlier in the week, the ECB just confirmed it is doubling its reserve capital from a token €5.8 billion to €10.8 billion. The bank cited increased volatility in FX rates, interest rates, gold prices and higher credit risks as the cause for the increase. Of course, even with this hike, the capitalization of the European central bank is still woefully insufficient. As we noted previously: "the ECB has €5.8 billion of capital [now €10.8 billion] on €1.924 trillion of assets: roughly 331x leverage. As a reminder the Fed has $57 billion capital on $2,385 billion in assets, or a 42x leverage ratio. On the other hand, the ECB only holds €72 billion in directly purchased bonds as part of its "assets", whereas the bulk of the Fed's assets are rate-sensitive instruments: roughly $2.1 trillion in "securities held outright."" In other words, the only global hedge fund that has a greater leverage than the Fed, has just cut its gross leverage from a stunning 331 to only 178x.
The long-debated topic of whether the ECB intervenes on behalf of the euro can now be put to rest. 120 pip move in a minute is not a short cover. It is, and always has been, forced central bank intervention. Bernanke is so happy Trichet is doing his work for him for the time being. Be very wary of buying stocks on this intervention, as Central Bank involvement now at best leads to a 12 hour temporary "fix" to the market that Bernanke et al want to sustain.
* Bundesbank President Axel "I'm German, That's All You Need Know" Weber
* Portugal's Central Bank Governor Vitor "Policy Wonk" Constancio
* Italy's Mario "What the Hell Are You Laughing at?" Draghi
* Greece's George "But, I've Been in The Lion's Den" Provopoulos
* There's Going to be a Euro Next Year?