European Union

In April the Dutch people will vote on the European-Ukraine association treaty.  In an interview with the NRC, a Dutch leading newspaper, Juncker warned the Dutch voters a “NO” will lead to a big continental crisis. “Russia and anti European movements will profit from a Dutch No, the Dutch has to vote yes for reasons not related to the treaty, the Dutch should act like an European strategist” according to Mr Juncker.

"I am not in the habit of replying to silly comments on Poland made by foreign politicians. Such words, said by a German politician, cause the worst of connotations among Poles. Also in me. I'm a grandson of a Polish officer, who during World War II fought in the underground National Army with 'German supervision.' I came to a sad conclusion that it is easier for you to talk about fictitious threats to media freedom in other countries than to condemn censorship in your homeland." - Polish justice minister Zibgniew Ziobro

While previously there was some ambiguity with regard to who actually perpetrated the attacks which allegedly unfolded in Cologne on New Year's Eve, authorities are now sure that "most" of those involved were "freshly traveled asylum seekers." From Die Welt: "Primarily it was the most Arab perpetrators to sexual offenses or, to put it from their point of view to their sexual amusement. A group of men circling a female victim, closes it and takes on the woman."

Fico said Thursday his government sees what he calls a "clear link" between the waves of refugees and the Paris attacks and the sexual assaults and robberies during the New Year's Eve festivities in Germany. He says: "We don't want what happened in Germany to happen here."  Fico says "the idea of multicultural Europe has failed" and that "the migrants cannot be integrated, it's simply impossible."

"These people that we welcomed just three months ago with teddy bears and water bottles ... started shooting at the cathedral dome and started shooting at police. Well seasoned police officers then confessed to me that they never saw something like this in their entire lives."

Iceland refused to be blackmailed. Iceland refused to take on the extra debt (and debt slavery) that came with the blackmail. Iceland refused to touch its social programs. Iceland has the strongest economy in the Western world.

EU countries join the UK, the U.S., Canada, Australia and New Zealand in having plans for bail-ins in the event of banks and other large financial institutions getting into difficulty.

"The Saudis are preparing for Iran’s return," said Mohamed Sadegh Memarian, who recently retired as the head of petroleum market analysis at Iran’s oil ministry, as they sharply cut the prices they charge for crude oil in Europe (to the biggest discount since Feb 2009). The move that will likely undercut Iran happens as sectarian tensions escalate between the rival Middle Eastern nations.

"The United States equity market has a down year. Stocks suffer from weak earnings, margin pressure (higher wages and no pricing power) and a price- earnings ratio contraction. Investors keeping large cash balances because of global instability is another reason for the disappointing performance."

• China stocks tank, triggers circuit breaker (Reuters)
• Stocks Slump Across Europe and Asia Following Shanghai's 7% Crash (BBG)
• China Halts Stock Trading After 7% Rout Triggers Circuit Breaker (BBG)
• Iran says Riyadh thrives on tension after relations cut (Reuters)
• Saudis and Bahrain Face Off With Iran in Worst Clash Since 1980s (BBG)
• Syrian rebel group backs Saudi move to cut ties with Iran (Reuters)

The Central Bank of Portugal conveniently released their results between Christmas and New Year, when the trading desks in Europe are virtually empty...

For those wondering what comes to mind for the average Chinese web surfer with regard to nations in Europe, we present the following map from Foreign Policy who “plotted the most common Chinese-language Baidu query for each European nation.” Highlights include "likes to fight" for Russia, "why doesn't it annex Portugal" for Spain, and "beautiful women" for Ukraine.

Elections, elections, and more elections is the 'regime change' meme for 2016 but, as Bloomberg details, the key events of the year ahead vary from a California marijuana referendum to Brazil's Olympics, and from Davos to SCOTUS. No matter what, 2016 holds a lot of opportunity for volatility, and without The Fed's safety net, who knows what that means for markets...

The Muslim population of Britain surpassed 3.5 million in 2015 to become around 5.5% of the overall population of 64 million. In real terms, Britain has the third-largest Muslim population in the European Union, after France, then Germany. Islam and Islam-related issues were omnipresent in Britain during 2015, and can be categorized into five broad themes: 1) Islamic extremism and the security implications of British jihadists in Syria and Iraq; 2) the continuing spread of Islamic Sharia law in Britain; 3) the sexual exploitation of British children by Muslim gangs; 4) Muslim integration into British society; and 5) the failures of British multiculturalism.

On the heels of a “close call” in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, Washington is preparing new sanctions against a handful of companies and individuals tied to Tehran’s ballistic-missile program. "We've been looking for some time‎ at options for additional actions related to Iran's ballistic missile program based on our continued concerns about its activities,” an unnamed US official says. Iran calls the new actions "illegal."