European Union

Trump To Meet With UK Prime Minister, As May Denies Her Brexit Plans Are "Muddled"

While Trump has yet engage the social network on Sunday, in his last tweet on Saturday evening, President-elect Donald Trump said he would will meet with U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May in the spring as the British leader seeks to rejuvenate ties with the US after a frosty start to their relationship and expand the UK's relationship with the U.S. after her country withdraws from the European Union.

German Vice Chancellor Says "European Break Up No Longer Unthinkable"

"It is no longer unthinkable that [the EU] breaks apart," German vice chancellor Sigmar Gabriel said in the interview. "Should that happen, our children and grandchildren would curse us because Germany is the biggest beneficiary of the European community - economically and politically."

Frontrunning: January 6

  • December Jobs Data to Wrap Up Obama’s Economic Legacy (WSJ)
  • FBI Says Democrats Refused Access to Hacked E-Mail Servers (BBG)
  • As Trump attacks, Nissan at bigger risk than Toyota (Reuters)
  • Democratic leader Schumer emerges as Trump's newest punching bag (Reuters)
  • PBoC raises renminbi’s daily fix by most since 2005 (FT)
  • China central bank urges rational investment in bitcoin (Reuters)

Frontrunning: January 5

  • Dollar Posts Biggest Drop Since Trump's Win (BBG)
  • World stocks hit 1-1/2 year high after strong China data (Reuters)
  • Apple pulls New York Times apps in China after government request (Reuters)
  • Macy’s Axes Jobs and Stores, Echoes Kohl’s on Weak Holiday (WSJ)
  • India’s Cash Woes Are Just Beginning (BBG)

It's The "Most Volatile" Year For Political Risk Since World War II

"In 2017 we enter a period of geopolitical recession," warns Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer, adding that international war or "the breakdown of major central government institutions" isn't inevitable, though "such an outcome is now thinkable." In the company's 19th annual outlook, Eurasia fears that U.S. unilateralism under Donald Trump, China’s growing assertiveness and a weakened German Chancellor Angela Merkel will make 2017 the "most volatile" year for political risk since World War II.

Frontrunning: January 4

  • Trump Tariff on GM Would Violate NAFTA. That May Not Stop Him (BBG)
  • Obama Tries to Save Parts of Health Law Amid GOP Attack (WSJ)
  • Trump Puts Auto Makers, Trade Policy in Spotlight (WSJ)
  • British consumers borrow at fastest rate in 11 years as inflation threat rises (Reuters)
  • Investment banking fees fall 7 percent in 2016 dragged down by equity raisings (Reuters)

After Getting Almost Nothing Right In 2016, Here Are Byron Wien's "Ten Surprises" For 2017

After incorrectly predicting virtually every "surprise" for 2016 one year ago, the bulls better beware because in Byron Wien's list of "ten surprises" for 2017, the 83-year-old Blackstoner has turned decidedly bullish this time, and expects the S&P to surge to 2,500 while the US economy grows at a brisk 3%. With that, he may have just doomed any hope for a non-recession in 2017.

Frontrunning: January 3

  • Stocks Gain With Commodities Amid China Optimism (BBG); Dollar, global stocks firm as 2017 trading starts in earnest (Reuters)
  • Oil hits 18-month highs as markets eye output cuts (Reuters)
  • Earnings Recovery Set to Propel Stocks Higher in 2017 (WSJ)
  • Republican-led Congress lays groundwork for Trump (Reuters)
  • Battles Await Ambitious GOP Agenda, Including Repeal of ACA (WSJ)
  • 2017 Will Be the Riskiest Year for Geopolitics Since WWII, Eurasia Group Says (BBG)

JPM: "Central Banks Have Created Unprecedented Distortions In Government Bond Markets"

"The biggest experiment in central bank history ($11 trillion and counting as of November 2016) helped employment recover in the US and UK, and more recently in Europe and Japan. Across all regions, however, too many of the benefits from this experiment accrued to holders of financial assets rather than to the average citizen. As a result, the political center of a slow-growth world has begun to erode."

Kunstler: 2017 Is When The Wheels Finally Come Off

The American people have been punked by their own government and their central bank, the Federal Reserve, for years and the jig is now up. In 2017 both will lose their authority and legitimacy, a very grave matter for the survival of this republic.

The Islamization Of Germany In 2016: "We Are No Longer Safe"

Mass migration from the Muslim world is fast-tracking the Islamization of Germany, as evidenced by the proliferation of no-go zones, Sharia courts, polygamy and child marriages. Mass migration has also been responsible for a host of social disruptions, including jihadist attacks, a migrant rape epidemic, a public health crisis, rising crime and a rush by German citizens to purchase weapons for self-defense — and even to abandon Germany altogether.