European Union

Banks With $12 Trillion In Assets Threatened By Persistent "Shocks", IMF Finds

The global economic recovery would still leave about a quarter of banks in developed countries too weak to support further growth and susceptible to future shocks. This means that banks controlling about $12 trillion of assets would remain vulnerable during a rosy economic environment marked by faster economic activity, rising interest rates and declining defaults

US Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Grows In August, Pressuring Q3 GDP

While the recently reported advance trade data showed a far better than expected recent trade picture for the US, today's official international trade data showed another modest disappointment, with the US trade deficit in August growing from an upward revised $39.6 billion to $40.7 billion, well above the expected $39.3 billion, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit decreased less than $0.1 billion in August to $60.3 billion. The services surplus decreased $1.2 billion in August to $19.6 billion.

European, EM Stocks Slide On ECB Taper Concerns; US Futures Flat

With China on holiday, overnight sessions remain relatively quiet: at this moment, S&P500 futures are little changed as European stocks fall for first day in seven, on yesterday's concern that the ECB is moving toward tightening monetary policy; Asian indices rose slightly for third day. WTI climbs to $49.40, the highest since June 30 after yesterday's surprisingly large API crude draw report.

Philippine President Tells Obama "You Can Go To Hell, I Will Buy Weapons From Russia"

Philippine leader Rodrigo Duterte on Tuesday told U.S. President Barack Obama to "go to hell" and said the United States had refused to sell some weapons to his country but he did not care because Russia and China were willing suppliers. He also lashed out at the EU advising it to "better choose purgatory. Hell is full already. Why should I be afraid of you?"

IMF Slashes US GDP Growth Outlook: Now Sees US Growing Only 1.6% In 2016

Having observed consensus economic growth expectations for the US tumble month after month, in its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF decided to once again play catch down from its over-optimistic +2.2% outlook in July to just 1.6% now  which still remains above consensus expectations of just 1.5% growth in 2016, pouring cold water on Obama's strategy to paint the economy as growing strongly.

Frontrunning: October 4

  • WikiLeaks' Assange signals release of documents before U.S. election (Reuters)
  • Kaine and Pence Look to Assure (and Attack) at Vice-Presidential Debate (BBG)
  • Pound tumbles to 31-year low, Deutsche Bank bounces (Reuters)
  • Trump Digs In Over Tax Disclosure (WSJ)
  • Oil eases as Iran, Libya output rises hit OPEC deal momentum (Reuters)

Sterling Tumbles To 31 Year Low Pushing The FTSE100 Near All Time High; US Futures Flat

Sterling dropped to its weakest since 1985, hit by a growing sense that the UK may be heading for a 'hard' Brexit in which it cuts links to the EU's single market in favor of total control over immigration. The dollar strengthened, the Nikkei225 rose as the Yen fell,  stocks in Europe rallied while US equity futures were fractionally in the green.

98% Of Hungarian Voters Reject Migrant Quotas, But It Was Not Enough

Almost all Hungarians who voted in Sunday's referendum rejected the European Union's migrant quota. The National Election Office said on its website that 98.3% of those who voted had rejected the quotas with 99.97% of votes counted. However, it was not enough, because as noted previously, turnout was too low to make the poll valid, frustrating Prime Minister Viktor Orban's hopes of a clear victory with which to challenge Brussels.

Frontrunning: October 3

  • Donald Trump’s Tax Numbers Sharpen Focus on Treatment of Losses (WSJ)
  • Qatari funds nurse €1bn loss on Deutsche Bank stake (Telegraph)
  • Colombian Voters Reject Peace Deal With FARC Rebels (WSJ)
  • Hungarians vote to reject migrant quotas, but turnout too low to be valid (Reuters)
  • Clinton expected to hit Wells Fargo in speech on 'bad corporate actors' (Reuters)

Futures Flat With Germany Closed; Sterling Slides On "Hard Brexit" Fears

With China, German and South Korea closed for holiday, it has been a relatively quiet day in overnight equity trading, especially in the one stock everyone is keeping a close eye on, Deutsche Bank, whose ADRs are trading fractionally lower, down under 1% in premarket trading. Cable plunged on "Hard Brexit" fears sending the FTSE100 to fresh 16 month highs.

Brexit Means March: Theresa May Will Trigger EU Divorce In Q1 Of 2017

After weeks of speculation on the UK's timetable for invoking Article 50, and eventually exiting the EU, Prime Minister Theresa May today announced she’ll begin the U.K.’s withdrawal from the European Union in the first quarter of 2017, ending speculation about the start of the 2-year Brexit process.