European Union

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: March 12





  • Cardinals head to conclave to elect pope for troubled Church (Reuters)
  • Hyperinflation 'Unthinkable' Even With Bold Easing: Abe (Nikkei)
  • Ryan Plan Revives '12 Election Issues (WSJ)
  • Italy 1-yr debt costs highest since Dec after downgrade (Reuters)
  • Republicans to unveil $4.6tn of cuts (FT) - Obama set to dismiss Ryan plan to balance budget within decade
  • CIA Ramps Up Role in Iraq (WSJ)
  • Hollande Hostility Fuels Charm Offensive to Show He’s No Sarkozy (BBG)
  • SEC testing customized punishments (Reuters)
  • Judge Cans Soda Ban  (WSJ)
  • Hungary Lawmakers Rebuff EU, U.S. (WSJ)
  • Even Berlusconi Can’t Slow Bulls Boosting Euro View (BBG) - luckily the consensus is never wrong
  • Funding for Lending ‘put on steroids’ (FT)
  • Investigators Narrow Focus in Dreamliner Probe (WSJ)
  • With new group, Obama team seeks answer to Karl Rove (Reuters)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: March 11





  • One in four Germans would back anti-euro party (Reuters)
  • EU Chiefs Seeking to Stave Off Euro Crisis Turn to Cyprus (BBG)
  • Ryan Says His Budget Would Slow Annual Spending Growth to 3.4% (BBG)
  • Goldman leads decline as Wall Street commodity revenues plummet (Reuters)
  • South Korea and US begin military drills (FT) and North Korea cuts off hotline with South Korea (Reuters)
  • Karzai Inflames U.S. Tensions  (WSJ)
  • Algorithms Get a Human Hand in Steering Web (NYT)
  • Meeting Is Set to Choose Pope (WSJ)
  • More U.S. Profits Parked Abroad, Saving on Taxes (WSJ)
  • Banks rush to redraft pay deals (FT)
  • Fugitive Fund Manager Stuffed Underwear With Cash, Fled (BBG)
  • Post-Newtown Gun Limits Agenda Narrows in U.S. Congress (BBG)
  • China Hints at Shift in One-Child Policy (WSJ)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: Unpopped Housing Bubbles Abound





Though much has been written about the popping of the housing bubble in the U.S. and Ireland, remarkably little has been written about the many housing bubbles that remain unpopped. As a rule, speculative bubbles pop and revert to their pre-bubble levels, so we can anticipate the eventual popping of all remaining housing bubbles. Given the dearth of investment options open to households in China seeking to invest their prodigious savings, it is unsurprising that China's housing bubble continues expanding. Every proponent of housing during bubbles confidently proclaims that "this time it's different," and a decade later the dazed survivors shift through the financial rubble, wondering what went wrong with "guaranteed" fundamentals, trends, valuations, collateral and wealth.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Trade Deficit Snaps Back In January, Larger Than Expected





So much for that December plunge in the US trade deficit, which plunged from $48.6 billion to three year low of $38.5 billion supposedly on a drop in energy imports, but in reality was due to a drop in broad imports as the US economy ground to a halt ahead of the Fiscal Cliff. In January, or after the stop gap measure to allow the economy to continue, things went back to normal, with the US returning to doing what it does best: importing, especially importing expensive energy, and sure enough the deficit spiked promptly back to $44.4 billion - it recent long-term average - as exports were $2.2 billion less than December exports of $186.6 billion while January imports were $4.1 billion more than December imports of $224.8 billion. Immediate result: look for banks to trim 0.2-0.3% GDP points from their Q1 GDP forecasts.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: March 7





  • French unemployment rises again to highest since 1999 (Reuters)
  • BoJ rejects call for monetary easing (FT)
  • North Korea threatens pre-emptive nuclear strike against US (Guardian)
  • Firms Race to Raise Cash (WSJ)
  • Time Warner Will Split From Magazine Unit in Third Spinoff (BBG) - slideshows, kittens, "all you need to knows" coming to Time
  • U.S. economy, world's engine, remains in "neutral": Fed's Fisher (Reuters)
  • BOE Keeps QE on Hold as Officials Weigh More Radical Measures (BBG)
  • Jobs start to go as US sequestration cuts in (FT)
  • BofA Times an Options Trade Well  (WSJ)
  • Congress Budget Cuts Damage U.S. Economy Without Aiding Outlook (BBG)
  • Dell’s Crafted LBO Pitch Gets Messy as Investors Circle (BBG)
  • Dell says Icahn opposes go-private deal (Reuters)
  • Portugal Rating Outlook Raised to Stable by S&P on Budget Plan (BBG)
  • China’s Richer-Than-Romney Lawmakers Reveal Reform Challenge (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: March 6





  • Kuroda to Hit ‘Wall of Reality’ at BOJ, Ex-Board Member Says (BBG)
  • Venezuelans mourn Chavez as focus turns to election (Reuters)
  • South Korea says to strike back at North if attacked (Reuters)
  • Milk Powder Surges Most in 2 1/2 Years on New Zealand Drought (BBG)
  • As Confetti Settles, Strategists Wonder: Will Dow's Rally Last?  (WSJ)
  • Pollution, Risk Are Downside of China's 'Blind Expansion' (BBG)
  • Obama Calls Republicans in Latest Round of Spending Talks (BBG)
  • Ryan Budget Plan Draws GOP Flak (WSJ)
  • Samsung buys stake in Apple-supplier Sharp (FT)
  • China Joining U.S. Shale Renaissance With $40 Billion (BBG)
  • Say Goodbye to the 4% Rule  (WSJ)
  • Traders Flee Asia Hedge Funds as Job Haven Turns Dead End (BBG)
  • Power rustlers turn the screw in Bulgaria, EU's poorest country (Reuters)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: A Roadmap For American Grand Strategy Part 2 (Of 3)





The United States desperately needs to formulate a grand strategy that reinforces the domestic foundations of American power while providing strategic guidance and direction to the nation’s actions in foreign policy. America must adapt with new ideas, tools and innovations if it is going to meet the opportunities and challenges of a rapidly changing world. To be successful, this strategy must embrace several overarching themes: first, the United States must remain committed to playing a leadership role; second, American grand strategy must promote a positive, hopeful, and optimistic vision for the world that it seeks to build; third, a grand strategy will be effective only if it commands broad and unequivocal support from the American public and their policymakers; and finally, the nation is long past the age when American grand strategy can pursue “cookie-cutter” or “school solutions” to challenges. What we are proposing is the hardly radical but often overlooked principle that American grand strategy should be, above all else, agile and flexible as it responds to the demands of the American people and the challenges of a rapidly evolving world.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

A Disparate Place





The world is a disparate place these days. It is dislocated. Central bank money buoying all of the markets; equities, debt, commodities while the underlying economies languish or dissipate. Month after month the division widens while even a slight whisper that the monetary creation might cease or falter hits the markets hard and then the leaders of the central banks assure everyone that it will go on ad infinitum and the markets all bounce back and begin to breathe again. The markets might be characterized as “Pucker and Sigh.” “Over the Rainbow” plays on non-stop in the media and those of us with a more skeptical eye are long past “If” and on to the “When.”

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: March 5





  • As ZH has been saying for months... Draghi Will Need to Push the Euro Down Some More (WSJ) ... but careful with "redenomination risk"
  • Senate Report Said to Fault JPMorgan (NYT)
  • EU Opens Way for Easier Budgets After Backlash (BBG)
  • China Moves to Temper Growth - Property Bubble Is a Key Concern (WSJ)
  • China bets on consumer-led growth to cure social ills (Reuters)
  • Italian president mulls new technocrat government (Reuters)
  • Grillo says MPS won't back technocrats (ANSA)
  • The Russians will be angry: Euro Chiefs Won’t Rule Out Cyprus Depositor Losses (BBG)
  • China Bankers Earn Less Than New York Peers as Pay Dives (BBG)
  • Investors click out of Apple into Google (FT)
  • Community colleges' cash crunch threatens Obama's retraining plan (Reuters)
  • Alwaleed challenges Forbes over his billions - Calculation of $20bn net worth is flawed, says Saudi prince (FT)
  • Guy Hands Dips Into Own Pockets to Fund Bonuses at Terra Firma (BBG)
  • North Korea to scrap armistice if South and U.S. continue drills (Reuters)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

All Roads Lead To Rome





Grillo refers to Berlusconi as “the psycho dwarf.” Grillo’s vision of Bersani is a “dead man walking.” In an interview that Grillo had with the New York Times over the weekend he said he would support neither side and that doing so “would be like Napoleon making a deal with Wellington.” He went on to say that, “We can change everything in the hands of respectable people, but the existing political class must be expelled immediately.” He has called for a nationwide referendum on Italy’s participation in the European Union and indicated that while Italy will pay its debts; it might be done in Lira. Do not underestimate this man. Do not assume that Italy will go on as usual and that this is just a split between the Left and the Right because this is not the case. Grillo’s call is for a new order, a new way of doing business and a new spirit for the Italians.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: February 28





  • Grillo kills move to break Italy deadlock (FT)
  • Abe nominates Kuroda to run BoJ (FT)
  • More WMT bad news: Wal-Mart Chief Administrative Officer Mars to Leave: WSJ (BBG)
  • Japan's Abe: Islands Are Indisputably Ours (WSJ) - Except for China of course
  • Low-key departure as pope steps down, to enter the final phase of his life "hidden from the world" (Reuters)
  • Cuts unlikely to deliver promised budget savings (Reuters)
  • European Union caps bankers’ bonuses (FT)
  • White House, Republicans dig in ahead of budget talks (Reuters)
  • Jockeying Stalls Deal on Cuts (WSJ)
  • Argentina Says It Won’t Voluntarily Comply With Bond Ruling (BBG)
  • Italian president says forming new government cannot be rushed (Reuters) - or happen at all
  • Central Banks Spewing Cash Must Plan Exit Timing, Rohde Says (BBG)
  • China Regional Targets Cut in Sign Debt Concerns Heeded (BBG)
  • RBA Says Up to 34 Central Banks Holding Australian Dollars (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

If You Ask The Right Questions You Might Find The Right Answers





One of the reasons mistakes are made, and often serious mistakes, are because the right questions are not asked. If you ask the wrong questions then the answers, even if answered correctly, will lead you to the wrong conclusions. What we are seeing in Italy this morning is a good example of asking and answering the small questions when the larger questions are vastly more important. What most people have not grasped yet, but the dawning will come, is that a Referendum has just taken place in Italy. All of the political upheaval in Italy was caused by anger and frustration with the European Union and their policies. The EU is now cornered.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: 20 Signs The U.S. Economy Is Heading For Big Trouble In The Months Ahead





Is the U.S. economy about to experience a major downturn?  Unfortunately, there are a whole bunch of signs that economic activity in the United States is really slowing down right now. In many ways, what we are going through right now feels very similar to 2008 before the crash happened.  Back then the warning signs of economic trouble were very obvious, but our politicians and the mainstream media insisted that everything was just fine, and the stock market was very much detached from reality.  When the stock market did finally catch up with reality, it happened very, very rapidly.  Sadly, most people do not appear to have learned any lessons from the crisis of 2008.  Americans continue to rack up staggering amounts of debt, and Wall Street is more reckless than ever.  As a society, we seem to have concluded that 2008 was just a temporary malfunction rather than an indication that our entire system was fundamentally flawed.  In the end, we will pay a great price for our overconfidence and our recklessness.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: February 25





  • Risk of instability hangs over Italy poll (FT), Protest votes add to uncertainty in close Italy election (Reuters), and... Risk On
  • Czech inspectors find horsemeat in IKEA meatballs (Reuters)
  • China’s Slower Manufacturing Casts Shadow Over Recovery (Bloomberg)
  • So much for reform: China Prepares for Government Shuffle as Zhou Stays at PBOC (Bloomberg)
  • France to pause austerity, cut spending next year instead: Hollande (Reuters)
  • Sinopec to buy stake in Chesapeake assets for $1.02 billion (Reuters)
  • White House warns states of looming pain from March 1 budget cuts (Reuters)
  • China Quietly Invests Reserves in U.K. Properties (WSJ)
  • Osborne Keeps Austerity as Investors See Downgrade as Late (BBG)
  • South Korea's new president demands North drop nuclear ambitions (Reuters)
  • Russia accuses U.S. of double standards over Syria (Reuters)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Franco-German Divide Nears Record High





Yesterday we mentioned the chasm between European union nations' minimum wages from the core to the periphery, but when even the so-called 'core' nations are diverging aggressively in their macro-conditions, we ask - rhetorically once again - how can they expect to hold this together with a single monetary policy. The difference is exhibited in many ways: manufacturing (yesterday's PMIs) differentials are the highest since Feb 2011, and as Bloomberg notes, the third highest on record; France's weakness relative to its German neighbor is also evident in GDP where Germany has recovered its post-2008 losses but France remains lower; Unemployment levels are stunningly wide with Germany at a mere 5.3% relative to France's 10.6%. All of this is summed up perfectly in the 'Taylor Rule' suggesting main policy rates that are 4 percentage points apart - a record since the Euro began - stoking inflationary concerns in Germany (relative to France). The market, as repressed as it ever was, is starting to wake up to this divergence with France 10Y yields at their widest relative to Germany in 2013 today.

 
Syndicate content
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!