European Union

Frontrunning: July 28

  • Fed caution hits dollar as Japan anticipation builds (Reuters)
  • Obama asks U.S. voters to 'carry' Clinton to White House, defeat Trump (Reuters)
  • Democrats skewer Trump (Politico)
  • Obama, Biden Toss Barbs at Trump and Say Clinton Is Only Choice (BBG)
  • Did Donald Trump’s Executives Violate the Cuban Embargo? (BBG)

US Futures Rise With All Eyes On Kuroda As Global Stocks Tread Water

Following yesterday's Fed decision and ahead of tonight's far more important BOJ announcement, European stocks have posted modest declines, Asian shares rise toward 9-month highs, while U.S. equity index futures are fractionally in the green in the aftermath of Facebook's blowout earnings. The dollar has extended on losses after Yellen reiterated a gradual approach to raising interest rates, and was down 0.5% in early trading.

Trump And The End Of NATO?

Trump does not seem to understand how deeply important NATO or US militarism elsewhere around the globe are to American hegemony under its corporate capitalist system. If and when he does actually try to implement his policy, he will encounter formidable forces that he probably isn’t aware of yet. The last American president who tried to rein in the corporate power of US militarism was John F Kennedy. He was assassinated on November 22, 1963, in broad daylight

Durable Goods Orders Crash Most In 2 Years - Longest Non-Recessionary Streak Of Declines In US History

Despite the longest winning streak for US macro data in US history, Durable Goods Orders collapsed in June. The 4% MoM plunge (vs -1.4% exp) is the biggest drop since Aug 2014. This represents a 6.6% YoY crash - the biggest drop since July 2015. The drop appears driven by  plunge in airplane orders (non-defense aircraft and parts). Worse still, core durable goods orders extended their annual declines to 18 months straight - the longest non-recessionary streak of declines in US history.

Global Stocks, Futures Continue Rise On Apple, Japan Stimulus; Yellen On Deck

The markets were following a rollercoaster night for the Japanese Yen, when after several media headlines Abe was said to have announced a stimulus package that would be more than JPY28 trillion, sending Japanese stocks higher 1.7% while the USDJPY spiked but well off overnight highs, pushing risk assets higher. Europe and US futs were also in the green on optimism from AAPL's earnings, but all eyes will be on today's FOMC announcement.

What The Sudden Spike In The TED-Spread Really Means

Due to the latest government intervention, differentiating between the signal of real market stress and the noise resulting from the shift due to 2a-7 reform, will now be impossible, and thus it will also be impossible to gauge if there is something truly broken with the market, at least until such a "breakage" becomes all too apparent for everyone to see.

"An Extraordinary Development": Record Swiss Gold Flow Into The United States

There was a huge trend change in U.S. gold investment in May.  Something quite extraordinary took place which hasn’t happened for several decades.  While Switzerland has been a major source of U.S. gold exports for many years, the tables turned in May as the Swiss exported a record amount of gold to the United States.

It's 2am In Japan, Time For Nikkei To Drop Another Tape Bomb

Yesterday at 2am local time, Japan's Nikkei reported a doubling of stimulus being proposed (to 6 trillion yen) after Goldman suggest 3 trillion was not enough. That spiked USDJPY briefly. Today, at 2am, Nikkei decided to try it again... announcing that "BoJ officials said to be leaning more toward easing," and sure enough USDJPY spiked...