European Union

European Union Challenged From Right And Left, "Maybe Too Much To Endure"

The heinous ISIS attack in Paris is a game changer in Europe. In addition to the horrific amount of individual casualties, the attack has also threatened severe damage to the long term survivability of the European Union as a political entity. Based on the unpopularity and unfeasibility of immigration controls under the EU's Schengen Plan, the events have opened up the Union to renewed attacks from the right, just as its support from the left is crumbling as a result of opposition to EU-mandated fiscal austerity. This two-front onslaught may be too much for the Union to endure.

There Are No Safe Spaces

We're not persuaded that world opinion will ever “make sense” of the Paris attacks. The non-linear rules the day. One thing seems assured: hard-line governments are coming soon. Politically, the West had boundary problems that go way beyond the question of national borders to the core psychology of modern liberalism. When is enough of anything enough? And then, what are you really willing to do about it? The answer lately among the Western societies is to do little and do it slowly. The behavior of college administrators and faculties in the USA these days is emblematic of this cowardly dithering.

Guest Post: Gold, Oil, & 'Grandmaster' Putin's Trap

It is important to keep in mind that the dollar’s attacks on gold always end the same way – in a painful knockout for the dollar. There have been no exceptions to this rule throughout monetary history, nor will there be this time. Hence the well-known market rule: “Any maximum of the gold price is not the last one.” It would be naive to believe that this golden rule is unknown to that grandmaster of patience, Vladimir Putin, and to Xi Jinping. By systematically increasing their gold reserves, Russia and China are relentlessly moving forward to strip the US dollar of its status as a global reserve currency. America’s standard military solution won’t work in this situation.

A Message to Europe – Prepare For Nationalism

"I really hope I am wrong about everything I wrote. I hope those advocating for positive statements and solidarity will win the day. I hope EU politicians change course before it’s too late. I hope all of those things, but hope is not going to save Europe... Because if not, the backlash against Muslims generally, and refugees specifically, is likely to be sustained and unjustifiably harsh."

France's Far-Right Party Calls For Nation To "Re-Arm Itself", Revoke Muslims' Passports, "Eradicate" Radical Islam

If there is one 'winner' from last night's terrible events in Paris, it is France's anti-EU, anti-immigration far-right wing Front Nationale party leader Marine Le Pen. Having already ascended to the lead in yet another poll ahead of France's 2017 elections, Le Pen came out swinging this morning call for France to "re-arm itself," stating that radical Islam must be "eradicated" from France. She further demanded that border controls be made "permanent" and binational Islamists must be depreived of their French passport.

EU Commissioner's Dire Warning: "The Only Alternative To Europe Is War"

While the saying goes "good fences make good neighbors," it appears the leadership of The EU is starting to get frustrated with the lack of acquiescence among some of the 'union's' newer or more marginal members. In a somewhat stunning statement, following ongoing and contentious meetings to discuss solutions to the migrant 'problem', EU Commissioner Timmermanns appeared to warn disagreeable member states, "There is an alternative to everything. I believe in EU cooperation because of all other forms in history have been tried to help Europeans get on better, and with the exception of this one, all other forms have led to war - so let's stick to this one."

Frontrunning: November 12

  • Stock futures little changed as Yellen comments awaited (Reuters)
  • Draghi stimulus hint underpins stocks, knocks euro (Reuters)
  • Black Friday's Losing Its Mojo and Retailers Might Be Relieved (BBG)
  • Macy’s Fights Downward Spiral With Bet on Off-Price Backstage Stores (WSJ)
  • Greece Comes to a Standstill as Unions Turn Against Tsipras (BBG)
  • Euro zone production falls more than expected in September (Reuters)
  • Valeant played a key role in building, operating Philidor RX (Reuters)

On The Verge Of The Great Unraveling, Looking Back From 2050

Empires, like adolescents, think they’ll live forever. In geopolitics, as in biology, expiration dates are never visible. When death comes, it’s always a shock. "At the beginning of the great unraveling, in 2015, I was still a young man. Like everyone else, I didn’t see this coming. Today, in 2050, fewer and fewer people can recall what it was like to live among those leviathans... Thirty-five years and endless catastrophes later on a poorer, bleaker, less hospitable planet, it’s clear that we just weren’t paying sufficient attention. Had we been listening, we would have heard the termites. There, in the basement of our common home, they were eating the very foundations out from under us. Suddenly, before we knew quite what was happening, all that was solid had melted into air."

The Refugee Crisis Risks Straining Europe To The Point Of Military Conflict

The EU expects 3 million refugees in 2016. This year, there will be ‘only’ 1 million. Of which resettlement deals have been made for 160,000, and at last count 116 have actually been resettled. The 1 million refugees in 2015 have already strained resources, international relationships and indeed entire governments to such an extent, wars could start just because of that. Add another 3 million, and the chances of a peaceful 2016 in Europe grow terribly slim.. The fact is that Europe risks being strained to the point of military conflict.