European Union

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Frontrunning: Friday 13





  • Presidential Task Force Recommends Overhaul of NSA Surveillance Tactics (WSJ)
  • Monte Paschi's Largest Shareholder Says It Will Vote Against $4.1 Billion Capital Increase (WSJ)
  • SAC Reconsiders Industry Relationships—and Its Name (WSJ)
  • Icahn’s Apple Push Criticized by Calpers as ‘Johnny Come Lately’  (BBG)
  • In Yemen, al Qaeda gains sympathy amid U.S. drone strikes (Reuters)
  • Missing American in Iran was on unapproved mission (AP)
  • In China, Western Companies Cut Jobs as Growth Ebbs (WSJ)
  • U.S. lays out steps to smooth Obamacare coverage for January (Reuters)
  • Las Vegas Sands Said to Drop $35 Billion Spanish Casino Proposal (BBG)
  • Twitter Reverts Changes To Blocking Functionality After Strong Negative User Feedback (TechCrunch)
 
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Guest Post: Ukraine’s Two New Energy Deals





If one was to believe the picture that most Western media outlets are painting, Ukraine has been lost to Russia. Though the country fought valiantly to sign an Association Agreement with the European Union in Vilnius, Lithuania last month, President Viktor Yanukovych suspended negotiations with the EU at the last possible moment, betraying Ukrainians everywhere. Two recent energy deals that Ukraine has reportedly made, one with Russia and the other with Slovakia, however, show that the reality of the situation is slightly more complex.

 
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New York City Has The Most Homeless Children Since The Great Depression





At a time when Wall Street is absolutely swimming in wealth, New York City is experiencing an epidemic of homelessness.  According to the New York Times, the last time there was this many homeless children in New York City was during the days of the Great Depression.  And the number of homeless children in the United States overall recently set a new all-time record Americans like to think of themselves as "the wealthiest nation on the planet", and yet the number of young kids that don't even have a roof over their heads at night just keeps skyrocketing.  There truly are "two Americas" today, and unfortunately most Americans that live in "good America" don't seem to really care too much about the extreme suffering that is going on in "bad America".

 
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Part 6 - How Likely Are Bail-Ins? Bank of England Says U.S. “Could Do Today”





The Bank of England's Tucker, who has worked with U.S regulators on the cross-border hurdles to taking down an international firm said that "U.S authorities could do it today--and I mean today". The FDIC official in charge of planning for resolutions, confirmed that the U.S system is ready to handle a big-bank collapse.  

 
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Ukraine Escalates: Police, Some Armed With Chainsaws, Storm Protest Camp - Live Webcasts





It will be a long night in Kiev, where as warned previously, once things start rolling downhill, they will deteriorate rapidly. Via Bloomberg:

RIOT POLICE ARMED WITH CHAINSAWS APPROACH KIEV BARRICADES
UKRAINIAN POLICE MASS NEAR BARRICADES AT KIEV SQUARE
POLICE STORM PROTEST CAMP IN CENTER OF KIEV, AP REPORTS
UKRAINIAN POLICE INSIDE KIEV PROTEST CAMP

 

 
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Frontrunning: December 9





  • Glass-Steagall Fans Plan New Assault If Volcker Rule Deemed Weak (BBG) ... "if"? The banks control the legislators and regulators...
  • Cellphone data spying: It's not just the NSA (USA Today)
  • Major tech companies push for limits on government surveillance (Reuters)
  • Shanghai Warns Kids to Stay Indoors for Seventh Day on Smog (BBG)
  • Protesters fell Lenin statue, tell Ukraine's president 'you're next' (Reuters)
  • Everyone must be flying private these days: EADS to cut 5000-6000 jobs, close Paris HQ in restructuring (FT)
  • Big Players Trade 'Upstairs' (WSJ)
  • There’s no way to tell how many people who think they’ve signed up for health insurance through the U.S. exchange actually have (BBG)
  • Slower China inflation reduces worries of tighter policy (Reuters)
 
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Livestream From Ukraine, Where Tens Of Thousands Return To Protest At Kiev's Main Square





Now that Athens' Syntagma square has been put on indefinite hiatus since everyone has finally figured out the game between Greece and Athens (Greece grudgingly promises to reform but doesn't, at the same time Troika grudgingly threatens to cut off funding for Greece unless reforms are implemented but doesn't... even as the fate of the people gets worse), a new square has emerged as the focal point in the fight for (and against) Europe - Kiev's Independence Square.

 
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Ex Greek FinMin Warns "Europe's North-South Divide Has Become A Time Bomb"





As the eurozone debt crisis has steadily widened the divide between Europe’s stronger northern economies and the weaker, more debt-laden economies in the south (with France a kind of no man’s land economy in between), one question is on everyone’s mind: Can Europe’s monetary union – indeed, the European Union itself – survive? Fiscal and financial measures aimed at strengthening eurozone governance have been inadequate to restore confidence in the euro. And Europe’s troubled economies have been slow to undertake structural reforms and by maintaining large trade surpluses, Germany is exporting unemployment and recession to its weaker neighbors. But how will Germany react when the north-south divide becomes large enough to threaten the euro’s survival? Two outcomes now seem possible. Europe’s north-south divide has become a time bomb lying at the foundations of the currency union.

 
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Deutsche Bank Exits Commodity Trading, Fires 200





It is amazing what a few short months of intense regulatory scrutiny, a few multi-billion fines, and the occasional janitorial arrest can do to fraudulent bank business lines. First, recall that as we showed a week ago, and as we have been saying for the past five years, banks were recently "found" to manipulate, in a criminal sense, pretty much everything. Then recall that yesterday the European Union lobbed the biggest monetary fine in history against bank cartel behavior, with the guiltiest party, at least based on monetary amounts, being Deutsche Bank. So now that outsized profits as a result of illegal "trading" become virtually impossible to procure, what is a self-respectable criminal enterprise to do? Why shut down all formerly infringing lines of business of course. Which is what Deutsche Bank just did, which announced a few hours ago that it has pulled the plug on its global commodities trading business, cutting 200 jobs in the process (200 jobs that will certainly be able to find a job in a jurisdiction where criminal trading behavior is still not as intensely scrutinized).

 
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Frontrunning: December 5





  • Apple, China Mobile Sign Deal to Offer iPhone (WSJ)
  • Japan approves $182 billion economic package, doubts remain (Reuters)
  • Volcker Rule Won't Allow Banks to Use 'Portfolio Hedging' (WSJ)
  • He went, he saw, he achieved nothing: Biden's Trip to Beijing Leaves China Air-Zone Rift Open (WSJ)
  • Britain announces sharp upward revision to growth forecasts (Reuters)
  • U.S. Airlines to Mortgage-Backed Debt Top List of Best ’14 Bets (BBG)
  • Thaksin's homecoming hopes dashed as Thai crisis reignites (Reuters)
  • Age of Austerity Nearing End May Boost Global Economy (BBG) - or it may expose that it was just corruption and incompetence at fault all along
  • China aims to establish network of high-level FTAs (China Daily)
 
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US Deficit Shrinks To $40.6 Billion As October Petroleum Exports Rise To New Record





Moments ago, the Census Bureau announced that in October the US trade gap narrowed to $40.6 billion (which still missed expectations of "only" a $40 billion deficit) from an upward revised September deficit of $43 billion, as oil sales boosted exports to record level. Total exports rose to a record $192.7 billion up $3.4 billion from last month's $189.3 billion, while imports rose just $1 billion to  $233.3 billion resulting in a $40.6 billion gap. Among the report highlights: October exports of goods and services ($192.7 billion), exports of goods ($135.3 billion), and exports of services ($57.4 billion) were the highest on record; October imports of goods and services ($233.3 billion) were the highest since March 2012 ($234.3 billion); and perhaps the best news for shale fans: October petroleum exports ($12.5 billion) were the highest on record.

 
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Russian Banks Most Exposed As Ukraine's "Precarious" Finances Spike Risk To 3 Year High





Ongoing anti-regime demonstrations in Ukraine are weighing on investor's risk perceptions as CDS spike to near three-year highs today (up over 100bps). At a minimum developments lower president Yanukovich's chances of remaining in power beyond the spring 2015 elections and possibly undermine his hold on power earlier, further decreasing the likelihood of sizeable financial support from Russia. With Moody's earlier comments on the nation's "precarious external liquidity" position; as Goldman warns, with even higher political uncertainty ahead, an acceleration of capital outflows might also follow and while they think the authorities will eventually turn to the IMF to avoid a disorderly sell-off of the currency, recent events arguably raise the risks to that view. However, the capital outflows are already having an impact as Reuters notes, Russian banks are considerably exposed as Ukrainian banks should deposit runs escalate.

 
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War On Democracy: Spain And Japan Move To Criminalize Protests





As might be expected as political and economic policy failures pile up and citizens become increasingly mad, the status quo is becoming increasingly authoritarian. In the latest disturbing news from a desperate power structure, the conservative government in Spain has passed an Orwellian bill titled the Citizens’ Security Law, which allows for fines of up to 600,000 euros ($816,000) for “unauthorized” street protests, and a 30,000 fine for merely having signs with “offensive” slogans against Spain or for wearing a mask. This law is a perfect example of the increasing neo-feudalism being implemented across the globe by a corrupt, decadent and depraved status quo.

 
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Where Europe's Million-Earning Bankers Can Be Found





The chart below showing where Europe's wealthiest earning bankers can be found should come as no surprise.

 
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Live Stream From Escalating Ukraine Protests As Hundreds Of Thousands Take To The Streets





As reported yesterday, in the aftermath of the violent crackdown on a pro-Europe rally, and the resulting call by the opposition for president Yanukovich's resignation through nationwide strikes, the situation in the Ukraine is increasingly more unstable. Moments ago Reuters reported that Ukrainian nationalist protesters broke into Kiev's city hall and were occupying at least part of the building during mass protests that drew several hundred thousands out on the streets to protest the government's decision to forego an EU deal. Nationalist leader Oleh Tyahniboh told Interfax that representatives of his party had taken over the building. "Today literally 40 minutes ago, our boys took the Kiev Council," he told crowds on Kiev's Independence Square.

 
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