European Union

Is Nigel Farage The UK Election's "Kingmaker"?

Will a desire to protest the current establishment see Nigel Farage's UKIP broaden its mandate in the upcoming election? This UK election will mirror many elections around Europe (since the crisis started) in focusing on inequality and the need for political protest. This could make for big moves in the mandates... We foresee Scottish National Party and UKIP protest votes proving far more numerous than the latest polls suggest.

Frontrunning: April 28

  • Maryland Governor Calls in National Guard to Control Baltimore Riots (BBG)
  • Fed Seen Delaying Liftoff to September to Push Down Unemployment (BBG)
  • Nepal PM says toll could rise to 10,000 (Reuters)
  • China Readies Fresh Easing to Tackle Specter of Debt (WSJ)
  • ‘Damned Lies’ Threaten to Overshadow U.K. GDP in Election Fight (BBG)
  • Uncertainty Over Impact of a Default by Greece (NYT)
  • Why the Cost of Hedging European Banks Stocks Has Soared (BBG)
  • Carinthia cash crunch gives Austria its own mini-Greece (Reuters)
GoldCore's picture

While sentiment towards gold in the West is abysmal - even as gold languishes at record lows when adjusted for inflation - Asian demand remains insatiable. It would be wise for investors to inform themselves as to why this should be so. Demand for gold in Asia is often written off by Westerners as an irrational impulse of uneducated Asian peasant farmers and workers. 

Europe Has Completely Lost It

As the Greek negotiations with the eurogroup and the ‘institutions’ show us with intense and increasing clarity, the notion of the euro being a boat to lift all tides turns out to be full-on bogus. Southern Europe’s nations will be either thrown out or allowed to stay only as debt servants. For now, Germany and Holland prefer to keep everyone on board, but that may still change. It would therefore seem like a good idea for Greece and Italy to make their moves while they can. What Tsipras and Varoufakis must accomplish is to make people understand that what Europe does to the refugees, it will do to its own citizens too.

"Greece Can No Longer Withstand The Waves Of Desperate People Arriving From War Zones"

"The EU and US need to hear the pleas coming from the southern European countries, as well as those of the refugees. The humanitarian catastrophe has reached large scale, with profound and irreversible consequences. Greece is paying a disproportionately high price, although Greece played no role in triggering this catastrophe. The EU and the US have the moral obligation, which is also consistent with their long-term interests, to take the necessary steps to put an end to the suffering of those in war zones, while at the same time preventing Greece’s collapse under the mounting pressure of refugees."

Frontrunning: April 24

  • Obama’s Drone-Strike Rules to Be Reviewed (WSJ)
  • Hostage locations difficult to track - and may be getting harder (Reuters)
  • Varoufakis Said to Take Hammering From Riled EU Ministers (BBG)
  • EU Frustration Mounts as Greeks Try to Bypass Aid Process (BBG)
  • Kleiner Perkins seeks almost $1 million in costs in Pao case (Reuters)
  • Google Misses, Caps Costs as Growth Slows (WSJ)... stock surges 
  • Oil prices trade near 2015 highs on Yemen worries (Reuters)
  • Pentagon Announces New Strategy for Cyberwarfare (NYT)
  • Bloomberg Oil at $65 Seen Freeing 500,000 Barrels From Shale Fracklog (BBG)
  • ‘Flash Crash’ Trader Navinder Sarao: It Was Wits, Not Bits (WSJ)

Forget "Grexit", "Grimbo" Has Arrived

The new term follows in the footsteps of the classic (but now tired) “Grexit” and its underrated predecessor “Graccident,” and refers to two of the four outcomes Citi imagines are possible in the unfolding Greek drama. The bad news: both scenarios involve capital controls, deposit flight, and defaults.

EU Formally (And Spitefully) Files Anti-Trust Charges Against Gazprom

With talks between Greece and its creditors expected to go mostly nowhere in Riga later this week, and with speculation about an energy deal between Athens and Moscow (i.e. the precursor to the dreaded "Russian pivot") looking less like speculation and more like reality with each passing day, Europe is going the spite route by filing anti-trust charges against Gazprom.

Frontrunning: April 21

  • The Fed Still Wants Easy Money (BBG) - you don't say
  • ECB Is Studying Curbs on Greek Bank Support (BBG)
  • Banks Paid to Borrow as Three-Month Euribor Drops Below Zero (BBG)
  • Baoding Tianwei is first state-owned Chinese enterprise to default (Reuters)
  • Major Chinese Developer Says It Can’t Pay Dollar Debts (BBG)
  • Wall Street Has No Idea How Much Money Venezuela Has (BBG)
  • Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Find Different Paths to Profits (WSJ)
  • Does the Collapse of a Chinese Developer Signal the Start of More Defaults? (BBG)
  • Retail Traders Wield Social Media for Investing Fame (WSJ)

As Gazprom CEO Arrives In Athens, EU (Coincidentally) Files Anti-Trust Charges Against Russian Giant

As the head of Russian gas giant Gazprom, Alexei Miller, arrives in Athens tomorrow (for talks with Greek PM Tsipras about "current energy issues of interest," which we suspect will include finalizing the "Turkish Stream" pipeline heralded by many as Greece's potential get-out-of-Troika-jail-card), he will face an increasingly anxious European Union. Fresh from its suit against Google, the WSJ reports, the EU's competition regulator plans to file formal antitrust charges against Russia’s state-owned gas company OAO Gazprom on Wednesday. This re-opens a suit from 2012 saying that it suspected the company of abusing its dominant position in those countries’ natural-gas supply. It appears Europe is getting nervous...

The Global Liquidity Squeeze Has Begun

The entire global financial system resembles a colossal spiral of debt. Just about all economic activity involves the flow of credit in some way, and so the only way to have “economic growth” is to introduce even more debt into the system. Unfortunately, any system based on debt is going to break down eventually, and there are signs that it is starting to happen once again.

Reggie Middleton's picture

This may take you the entire weekend to digest, but if you are an unsecured creditor/lender (have a checking, savings or demand deposit account) to a euro zone bank, I would consider it your fiduciary responsibility to yourself to sit down and parse this piece with care and aplomb!

Is May 9 The Grexit Date?

Greek FinMin Varoufakis is meeting sovereign debt lawyer Lee Buchheit today, the ‘fairy godmother to finance ministers in distress’... The big questions concern not just the difference between on the one hand, economic issues and on the other, political ones. Syriza doesn’t have the mandate to take Greece out of the eurozone. That is a huge point. But neither does it have the mandate to give in to the troika’s insistence on pensions cuts. At a certain moment, it may come down to what can be explained to the Greek people, and how well it can be explained. This explanation will almost certainly have to come after the fact, since holding a referendum pre-Grexit would carry far too much potential risk of uncontrolled demolition of the entire Greek economy and banking system.

 

Grexit Lives As "Deluded" Forecasters Predict The Unpredictable

Update: SCHAEUBLE: GREECE FREE TO SEEK RUSSIAN AID, MAY NOT GET MUCH

As Greeks take to the streets, Varoufakis calls predictions about Grexit reverberations delusional, and Bloomberg proposes a list of Greek default scenarios. Meanwhile, central banks move to ringfence Greek exposure and analysts scramble to outline the risk of bank runs, capital controls, and contagion.