European Union

IMF Called "Clowns" After Admitting They Fabricated Brexit Doom And Gloom

"The IMF has serious credibility problems. It has been seriously wrong for years. I hope that one of the things that the new government does is push to have some credible people running this institution... rather than the clowns currently running it," exclaimed UKIP MP Douglas Carswell, pointing out Lagarde's legion of fools flip-flop that the British economy will grow faster than Germany and France in the next two years - only weeks after its doom-laden warnings about Brexit.

Morgan Stanley Beats Despite 9% Drop In Revenue, Helped By Cost-Cutting, Strong FICC; Shares Jump

Following the example set by the other banks, earlier today Morgan Stanley, the last big bank to report earnings,  said its profit fell 12% in Q2 on a 9% drop in revenue even as the company weathered volatile markets that affected its investing and corporate clients. The EPS of $0.75, however, beat sharply lowered expectations of $0.60 on the back of sharp cost-cutting measures, pushing its shares up 3% in the premarket.

Frontrunning: July 20

  • Trump Goes on Offense as Republicans Try to Move Past Missteps (BBG)
  • Trump could seek new law to purge government of Obama appointees (Reuters)
  • Behind the scenes, Ryan touts his agenda in Cleveland, not Trump's (Reuters)
  • U.S. Set to Seize $1 Billion in Assets Tied to Malaysian Fund 1MDB (WSJ)
  • 21st Century Fox Negotiating Exit of Fox News Chief Roger Ailes (WSJ)

The Peak Oil Paradox - Revisited

Is 'Peak Oil' dead and buried forever, or is it lurking in the shadows, waiting to derail the global economy again?

Which Countries Have The Most Immigrants?

Immigration is now at the center of American and British politics. Trump and Farage see immigration as an existential threat. But do the United Kingdom and the United States have especially large foreign-born populations? Is the number of foreign-born residents in those countries rising at rates faster than in other countries? And how is the composition of the foreign-born population changing?

US Futures Dip, European Stocks Slide After EU Court Slams Italian Bank Bailout Plans

After a head-scratching S&P500 rally - which not even Goldman has been able to justify - pushed stocks to new all time highs with seemingly daily record highs regardless of fundamentals or geopolitical troubles, overnight US equity futures dipped modestly, tracking weak European stocks as demand for safe haven assets including U.S. Treasuries and gold rises. Asian stocks outside Japan fall. Crude oil trades near $45 a barrel. 

Citi Is Stunned How Quickly The "Extraordinary Political Backdrop" Is Deteriorating

"These developments point to a marked increase in political risks in systemically-significant countries. At the start of the year, we flagged many of these as  well as introducing our thesis that rising Geopolitical Risks, accompanied by rising "Vox Populi" risks such as Brexit and changing US politics, were at risk of converging in new and powerful ways. Even so, we did not anticipate quite how many would transpire, let alone within such a compressed timeframe."

Erdogan Purges 20,000 As Europe Voices Concern Coup Was Staged With "Prepared Arrest Lists"

Overnight Turkish president Erdogan's counter-coup witch hunt continued, when thousands of police officers were suspended on Monday, widening a systemic purge of Erdogan's enemies first in the armed forces and then judiciary after a failed military coup, now focusing on the interior police force, and raising concern among European allies that it was abandoning the rule of law. Turkey's state-run news agency says the nation has detained or suspended 20,000 personnel across the country, following Friday's foiled coup attempt.

Why Oil Prices Might Never Recover

Two years into the global oil-price collapse, it seems unlikely that prices will return to sustained levels above $70 per barrel any time soon or perhaps, ever. That is because the global economy is exhausted. The current oil-price rally is over and prices are heading toward $40 per barrel. Oil has been re-valued to affordable levels based on the real value of money. The market now accepts the erroneous producer claims of profitability below the cost of production and has adjusted expectations accordingly. Be careful of what you ask for.

John Kerry Threatens Turkey With NATO Expulsion

“NATO also has a requirement with respect to democracy and NATO will indeed measure very carefully what is happening,” Kerry tells reporters in Brussels after attending a meeting of European Union foreign ministers "My hope is that Turkey is going to move in ways that do respect what they have said to me many times is the bedrock of their country."

US Futures Rebound Sharply From Friday's Coup Fears, Focus Shifts To M&A

Having panciked briefly on Friday night on news of a Turkish coup, which has since not only failed but been cast away as speculation rises that it was staged and designed to give Erdogan even more authoritarian power, markets have moved on and are now focusing on the main overnight event which was the surprising $32 billion bid by Japan's SoftBank for U.K.’s semiconductor giant ARM which has sent comparable semis higher in European trading and pushing the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up by 0.6%, after surging 3.2% last week. After sliding sharply on Friday, US equity futures are up 0.1% in early trading.

Great Numbers! Curious Timing?

Pretend you’re running a corrupt government and something big and scary happens in another part of the world. Brexit, for instance. You’re quite naturally worried about the impact on your local economy and political system. What do you do? Well, one obvious thing would be to call the statisticians who compile your economic reports and tell them to fudge the next batch of numbers.