European Union

Frontrunning: January 18

  • Business euphoria over Trump gives way to caution, confusion (Reuters)
  • Biden Lashes Out at Trump Over Comments on NATO (WSJ)
  • Number of House Democrats Skipping Inauguration Grows (WSJ)
  • Rising U.S. shale-oil output threatens OPEC’s production pact (MW)
  • China urges U.S. to bar Taiwan delegation from Trump inauguration (Reuters)
  • IEA Sees Significant Gains in U.S. Shale Oil as Prices Rise (BBG)

Trump Takes On The Deep State

"The deep state" is shorthand for a force within Washington that is able to guide the US' ship of state over periods of time longer than presidential terms, and at times despite the stated intentions of elected officials. If Trump has indeed embroiled himself in a conflict with this entity, then, what does that mean for his policy plans and for the post-Inauguration markets?

Frontrunning: January 17

  • Theresa May pledges clean Brexit break (FT); May Pledges Vote on Brexit Taking U.K Out Of EU’s Single Market (BBG)
  • Donald Trump Warns on House Republican Tax Plan (WSJ)
  • Trump, Fed Headed for Clash Amid Dollar Surge, Economists Say (BBG)
  • China’s Xi Warns Against Trade War in Defense of Globalization (BBG)
  • Morgan Stanley Profit Rises on Surge in Bond-Trading Revenue (BBG)
  • Germany says NATO concerned about Trump 'obsolete' remark (Reuters)

Theresa May Says UK To Leave EU Single Market

Having been expansively leaked overnight so as to prevent surprises, Theresa May has just begun her speech calling for a "clean Brexit" from the EU. Watch it live below.

Germany Slams Trump Criticism: Urges US To "Build Better Cars", Accuses Washington Of Causing Refugee Crisis

Responding to Trump's Sunday criticism, Germany's economy minister Sigmar Gabriel said "there is a link between America’s flawed interventionist policy, especially the Iraq war, and the refugee crisis, that’s why my advice would be that we shouldn’t tell each other what we have done right or wrong" and also urged the US to "build better cars" if it wants Germans to buy them.

In Defense Of Populism

"Populism is not a bug, but is a key feature in any democratic society. It functions as a sort of pressure relief valve for free societies. Indeed, it allows for an adjustment and recalibration of the existing order at the exact point in the cycle when it is needed most. In our current corrupt, unethical and depraved oligarchy, populism is exactly what is needed to restore some balance to society."

Howard Marks: "So Much For The Experts"

"The opinions of experts concerning the future are accorded great weight . . . but they’re still just opinions. While I take a dim view of forecasts, and especially of opinions presented as facts, I do believe there are such things as facts.  Unfortunately, however, the concept of 'facts' is among the casualties of the increasingly partisan environment.  Recently we have seen both the elevation in status of 'non-facts', as well as the tearing down of 'real facts'."

Theresa May To Call For "Clean And Hard Brexit" As UK Warns Of "Market Correction"

According to the Sunday Times, on Tuesday U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will call for a “clean and hard Brexit’’ saying she’s willing to quit the European Union’s single market to regain control of Britain’s borders and laws. The prime minister’s staff have warned that her words would likely cause a “market correction” that could lead to a fresh fall in the pound.