European Union

In the beginning of 2008, a US dollar could buy only €0.65 euros. Today, on average through 2015, one US dollar can buy €0.91 euros. With European demographics getting more challenging by the year, and deflation stalking the eurozone, problems don’t seem to be going away for the euro. The crises in Ukraine and Greece continue on without much resolved, and the ECB is continuing on with its QE program. Meanwhile, the Refugee Crisis has created another political distraction that has its own challenges for the people of Europe. Will the shrinking euro be able to revert its course, or is Europe doomed to become the next Japan?

As has already been discussed at length, once the economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the European Union on Iran begin to be lifted next year, there is going to be a surge in the already oversupplied global crude oil markets. Although the surge in crude oil markets could further worsen the global supply/demand gap, Iran could present a new source of competition on other crucial fronts too, especially in the gas markets.

Russia “received no answer” when it asked its international partners to provide information on terrorist targets in Syria, or to say at least where its planes shouldn’t bomb, Putin said. “It’s not a joke, I’m not making any of this up,” he said.

• Playboy to Drop Nudity as Internet Fills Demand (NYT)
• Stock futures fall on weak China trade data (Reuters)
• Any Hall is down 20% YTD (WSJ)
• Global Stocks Slide With Metals After Chinese Imports Tumble (BBG)
• Clinton's tack to the left to be on display in Democratic debate (Reuters)
• Switzerland Said to Impose 5% Leverage Ratio on Big Banks (BBG)
• AB InBev, SABMiller brew up $100 billion deal (Reuters)

• Central Bankers Urge Fed to Get On With Interest-Rate Increase (WSJ)
• Bond Market Casualties Leading Biggest S&P 500 Revival Since '11 (BBG)... on hopes of more easing
• U.S. Patrols to Test China’s Pledge on South China Sea Islands (WSJ)
• Merkel Under Fire: German Conservatives Deeply Split over Refugees (Spiegel)
• Assault Weapons Ban Before U.S. Supreme Court (NBC)
• Hedge Funds Are Playing 'Dangerous Game' With Copper (BBG)

Earlier today, around 10am local time, Turkey’s capital Ankara, was rocked by two blasts which according to NBC killed over 52 demonstrators, who had gathered for a peace march, as the country grapples with mounting security threats just three weeks before snap elections. The explosions also wounded more than 120 people, the Turkish Interior Ministry said. The cause of the blasts was unclear, the ministry said, adding that it had launched an investigation.

As part of a global investigation into how much physical gold central banks have stored at what location and how much is leased out, we submitted the local equivalent of a Freedom Of Information Act (FOIA) request at the central bank of Belgium (NBB) to obtain information about the amount of Belgian official gold reserves, the exact location of all gold bars, the type of gold accounts NBB holds at the Bank Of England (BOE) and how much is leased out and to whom. The outcome of this research was not what we had expected...

Having government control over the levers of the economy can have advantages. For example, by taking prompt action, the Chinese government was able to pull the economy out of the recession remarkably fast, basically by fire-housing the stimulus package that was equivalent to 12% GDP. That’s the advantage. The only problem is that these kinds of short-term advantages come with long-term, painful consequences.

Russia can be seen as maneuvering to split OPEC into two blocs, with Russia, although not a member, persuading the “Russian bloc” to isolate Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arab OPEC members within OPEC. This might persuade the Saudis to seek a compromise with the have nots.

As was previewed last week in the advance release of international trade data which showed a big drop in the US deficit, moments ago the BEA confirms as much, when it reported that in August the US trade deficit blew out from $41.8 billion to a whopping $48.3 billion, an increase of 15.6%, as a result of a $3.7 billion drop in exports, offset by a $2.8 billion increase in imports. The August deficit, driven in major part by the surge in the US deficit with China which shot out to a whopping $32.9 billion, was the worst monthly print since March, and the second worst trade data read going back to early 2012.

• Asian shares rise on fading Fed rate views (Reuters)
• U.S. Equity Futures Fall, Risking S&P 500 Rally as Copper Slides (BBG)
• More biotech pain, this time from the WSJ: For Prescription Drug Makers, Price Increases Drive Revenue (WSJ)
• VW Will Delay or Cancel Non-Essential Investments Due to Scandal (BBG)
• Russia Rejects No-Fly Zone Over Syria as Clerics Urge Reprisals (BBG)
• Historic Pacific trade deal faces skeptics in U.S. Congress (Reuters)
• German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Fall Amid Economic Risks (BBG)

• MOAR: Euro-Area Growth Seen Slowing in Sign More Stimulus May Be Ahead (BBG)
• MOAR: Japan's wage growth slows in August, keeping pressure on BOJ for more stimulus (Reuters)
• MOAR: Stocks, Copper, Emerging Markets Jump as Fed Delay on Rates Seen (BBG)
• And yet... Central Banks Lose Bond-Market Credibility as Woes Mount (BBG)
• World Bank cuts Asia growth forecast on China and US rates (BBC)

The scandal swirling around Germany's largest listed company had its beginnings in an attempt to crack the U.S. market, the missing link in VW's global footprint. But, as Handelsblatt details, what began as expansion ended in deception (piecing together the events that led up to the scandal, based on the facts as they are currently known).

What worked in the post-global financial meltdown era of 2008-2014 will not work the same magic in the next seven years.

Whether it’s the economy, climate, the planet, warfare, your future obligations, your pensions, the future of your children, nobody in power tells you the truth. Human life is fast losing the value we would like to tell ourselves we assign to it. We don’t, do we? Our technological advances haven’t come with moral advances, quite the contrary, our morals turn out to be a thin layer of mere cheap veneer. What advances we’re making are the last death rattle of a society in decline, and a dying civilization.