Eurozone

Everything You Need To Know About The Italian Referendum (& Should Be Afraid To Ask)

While the post-Trump euphoria in US stocks has been the perfect distraction from the ugly realities elsewhere, this weekend's Italian Referendum could well be the biggest 'revolt' yet, topping Brexit and Trump. Should Italy vote "no", as polls forecast, PM Renzi may quit, leaving the Italian bank recapitalization would then be in jeopardy and, as Bloomberg's Mark Cranfield warns "we could be looking at a Greece-like market reaction on steroids."

How December 4th Could Trigger The "Most Violent Economic Shock In History"

Italians are angrier now than they’ve been since they hung Il Duce up by his heels in 1945. Italy has had no productive growth since 1999. Real GDP per person is smaller than it was at the turn of the century. That’s almost two decades of economic stagnation. By any measure, the Italian economy is in a deep depression. And things will probably get much worse. It’s no surprise Italians are in a revolutionary mood...

Weak Links In The "Trump Rally"

This is the first time, within the last three years, the markets have pushed a 3-standard deviation move from the 50-day moving average. Such a move is not sustainable and a correction to resolve this extreme deviation will occur before a further advance can be mounted.

Key Events In The "OPEC Is Optimistic About A Deal" Week

The key economic releases this week are consumer confidence on Tuesday, ISM manufacturing on Thursday, and the employment report on Friday. There are a few scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. The Beige Book for the December FOMC period will be released on Wednesday.

US Manufacturing PMI Rebounds To 13 Month Highs On Post-Election Optimism, Decouples From Production Slump

Following the bump in Eurozone PMIs this morning, Markit reports November US manufacturing at 53.9 (better than 53.5 expected) and its highest since Oct 2015, showing "further signs of factories and their customers moving away from destocking to inventory-building amid a more optimistic outlook." However, hope in the PMI survey seems to be decoupling from reality in actual production.

Welcome To The "Melt-Up"

As Wile E. Coyote always discovers as he careens off the edge of the cliff, “gravity is a bitch.”

S&P Set To Open At All Time High, Boosted By Rising Crude On More "OPEC Deal Optimism"

European and Asian stocks rose after the early scare from the latest Fukushima quake dissipated, with the global risk on mood spurred by another jump in crude, which was up 1% in early trading, with the commodity complex now enjoying its biggest three-day rally since May, after Nigeria signaled optimism that OPEC will agree a supply-cut deal next week in Vienna. S&P futures are up 0.3%, with the cash index set to open at new record highs.

"Everything Is Not Awesome" - Don't Be The Turkey

"Things have not suddenly become awesome over the course of the past week... It is very easy to be sucked into the gushingly positive narratives and often unsupported narratives put forth by the financial media. This is particularly true when the move in asset prices can make minutes seem like days and hours seem like months. Excessive market valuations, weak internal measures, and a deteriorating backdrop has historically been a “wicked brew” for investor outcomes."