Eurozone

Frontrunning: February 17

  • ‘In Trump We Trust’ Is Market Mantra as Turmoil Besets White House (BBG)
  • World stocks lose momentum after record-breaking week (Reuters)
  • As Tax Debate Heats Up, Lawmakers Struggle to Think of a Plan B (WSJ)
  • Mnuchin Warned as G-20 Sees New Economic Order (BBG)
  • Deutsche Bank examined Donald Trump's account for Russia links (Guardian)
  • Stop hurling insults and listen, Pope Francis tells politicians (Reuters)

Frontrunning: February 15

  • World stocks at 21-month highs on Yellen, U.S. outlook (Reuters); Dollar notches longest run of gains in five years before CPI data (Reuters)
  • Nervous About the ACA, GOP Divisions Emerge Over Repeal Effort (BBG)
  • Flynn Probed by FBI Over Calls With Russian Official (WSJ)
  • Russia Questions Mount for Trump White House Reeling From Flynn Fallout (BBG)
  • Trump knew for weeks aide was misleading over Russia (Reuters)

Is Greece Really On The Verge Of Another Financial Crisis?

Just about every adult on earth has seen this show before. Greece faces a debt repayment that it cannot meet... and needs fresh bailout funds. Past budget stringency has failed to relieve Greece’s predicament. If Athens were to unwind this crony-capitalist regulatory regime, it would generate an economic dynamism that Greece desperately needs.

Here Are The Best Hedges Against A Le Pen Victory

According to BofA, the best ways to hedge increased risks of a potential Eurosceptic win in the upcoming French election is favouring 10y peripheral spread wideners in Spain vs France, longs in 5y5y Germany and 5y Dutch sovereign CDS. In the options space, the banks recommends going long vol with a hybrid 6m10y strangle. In inflation, it likes 5y5y French CPI v HICP widener and a long 30y OATei breakeven vs inflation swap.

"Are You Ready For Greed?" Morgan Stanley Asks

"We think a scenario where retail investors, corporates and financials all get much more optimistic at the same time needs to be respected. As TABX cratered and credit markets wavered in early 2007, the S&P 500 went on to make new highs, not peaking until October. Greed is a powerful force. We are trying not to forget that."

Greek Bond Yields Tumble After Euro Zone, IMF Agree On "Common Stance"

In a welcome sign the latest conflict between the troubled Greece's lenders may be thawing, Reuters reports that Euro zone creditors and the International Monetary Fund have agreed between themselves to present a common stance to Greece later on Friday in talks on reforms and the fiscal path Athens must take.