Eurozone

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Yellen, Inflation, Durables And GDP

The main releases this week are the durable goods report on Monday, the Q1 GDP revision on Thursday, and the personal income and spending report on Friday. There are also many speaking engagements by Fed officials including a speech by Fed Chair Yellen on Tuesday.

Frontrunning: June 26

  • Italian Bank Deal Raises Questions About Eurozone Rules (WSJ)
  • UK PM May strikes $1.3 billion deal to get Northern Irish DUP support for her government (Reuters)
  • Nestle Targeted by Dan Loeb in Activist’s Biggest-Ever Bet (BBG)
  • Nestle 'committed' to strategy as activist investor moves in (Reuters)
  • Troubled Air-Bag Maker Takata Files for Bankruptcy (WSJ)

BofA: "Central Banks Are Now In A Desperate Dilemma"..."Start Buying Volatility"

"Central banks, the reason behind high asset prices and low vol, are now in desperate dilemma: politically unacceptable for bubble on Wall St, but central banks will be tightening into deflation; inflection point for volatility is upon us and we recommend investors buy volatility....Fed tightening in 2017 could easily be followed by easing in 2018, in our view."

Albert Edwards: "Citizens Will Soon Turn Their Rage Towards Central Bankers"

"In an age of “radical uncertainty” how long will it be before angry citizens tire of blaming an impotent political system for their ills and turn on the main culprits for their poverty – unelected and virtually unaccountable central bankers? I expect central bank independence will be (and should be) the next casualty of the current political turmoil."

BofA: "Has The Fed Become Concerned About The Surge In Stocks?"

"Can it be the case that its hawkishness was prompted by something other than its reading of the economy? Is it possible that the Fed has become concerned about the recent surge in the equity market, especially tech stocks that has been feeding off low interest rates and low volatility?"

Key Events In The Coming Quiet Week: Brexit, Housing And Lots Of Fed Speakers

In an otherwise relatively quiet week in which the only upcoming US data is housing, current account and jobless claims, UK politics will again draw attention, one year (on Friday) after the Brexit referendum and as noted earlier, Brexit negotiations begin on Monday, despite lingering political uncertainty in the UK. Also no less than 9 FOMC members are scheduled to speak this week.

EU Reach Bailout Deal With Greece Once Again

As expected by most (if not all, judging by the 8 year lows in Greek bond yields), European finance ministers have reportedly reached an agreement to bail out Greece once again (provide them with yet another EUR8.5 billion loan), and agreed to discuss the possibility of debt extensions.

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Fed, BOJ, BOE, SNB, US Inflation And Retail Sales

After a tumultous week in the world of politics, with non-stop Trump drama in the US, and votes in the UK, France and Italy, this is shaping up as another busy week ahead with multiple CB meetings, a full data calendar and even another important Eurogroup meeting for Greece. Wednesday's FOMC will be the main event, with the Fed expected to hike 25bp, while the BOJ, BOE and SNB all remain on hold.