Wax on Wax off,risk on today risk off tomorrow.....things could spiral out of control rather quickly
Third Greek Bailout Suddenly In Jeopardy: Creditors Warn Cash May Be Delayed If Elections Don't Go As DesiredSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/01/2015 11:14 -0400
Just when everyone was convinced that the main "risk off" event of the summer, namely the Greek bailout, was safely tucked away and that having abdicated its sovereignty to its creditors and Germany in particular, who now hold the Greek banking system hostage courtesy of draconian capital controls, that Greece would continue to receive its monthly cash allotment just so it could repay creditors from its first two bailouts and would not make headlines for the foreseeable future , Market News just reported that suddenly even the Greek bailout is no longer on autopilot as a result of the upcoming elections in three weeks, whose outcome is anything but assured.
- Charting the Market: New Month, Same China (BBG)
- China jitters send stocks tumbling (Reuters)
- Oil falls on weak China factory data (Reuters)
- Euro zone factory growth eases in August despite modest price rises (Reuters)
- Euro-Area Joblessness Falls to Lowest Level Since Early 2012 (BBG)
- Clinton friend advised on U.S. politics, foreign policy (Reuters)
- Korea exports slump as Asia's woes deepen (Reuters)
Gold rose 3.5% in August as stocks globally saw sharp falls on growing concerns about the Chinese and the global economy.
News That Matters
"You take the blue pill, the story ends. You wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill, you stay in wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes." - Morpheus, The Matrix
RANsquawk Week Ahead - 24th August: Black Monday sees weakness in equities throughout Asia and Europe, as well as filtering through to commodities and USDSubmitted by RANSquawk Video on 08/24/2015 07:21 -0400
- Risk averse sentiment dominated the price action overnight, with Chinese equities (Shanghai Comp -8.5%) again under heavy selling pressure as market participants were left disappointed by the lack of action by the PBOC to ease monetary conditions further.
- US data is set to remain in focus as participants continue to try to gauge the possibility of a September rate lift off after last week’s Fed’s minutes highlighted concerns over China
- This week sees the first preliminary August CPI readings in Europe from both Germany and Spain
We warned on Friday, after last week's China rout, that the market is getting ahead of itself with its expectation of a RRR-cut by China as large as 100 bps. "The risk is that there isn't one." We were spot on, because not only was there no RRR cut, but Chinese stocks plunged, with the composite tumbling as much a 9% at one point, the most since 1996 when it dropped 9.4% in a single session. The session, as profile overnight was brutal, with about 2000 stocks trading by the -10% limit down, and other markets not doing any better: CSI 300 -8.8%, ChiNext -8.1%, Shenzhen Composite -7.7%. This was the biggest Chinese rout since 2007.
A non-bombastic discussion of market forces and what to expect next
According to the latest, just released survey concerns about both geopolitics and Greece have been largely forgotten, as have Chinese debt defaults, and instead these have been replaced with far more overarching fears about a China recession (made all the more acute after China's devaluation) and an Emerging Market debt crisis. In fact, according to BofA, "2 out of 3 investors think either China recession or EM debt crisis = biggest "tail risks."
It will probably not come as a surprise that with oil trading at 6 year lows, and with China barely able to keep the plates spinning, according to the latest NYSE data, Energy and Industrial were the most shorted sectors as the shorts congregate, having smelled if not blood than ongoing commodity and excess capacity turmoil. What about the remaining 8 sectors?
Everyone seems to focus on gold's price while forgetting its value as a diversification.
PBoC Injection Shows China Worries About Outflows- WSJ
Greek PM Alexis Tsipras has lost the support he needs to win a confidence vote, setting up the possibility of snap elections. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel's bulletproof reputation will be tested on Wednesday when the Bundestag will be forced to vote on the Greek bailout without an assurance that the IMF will ultimately shoulder a portion of the burden.
"Time is now rapidly running out," warns The Telegraph's John Ficenec as the British paper takes a deep dive into the dark realities behind the mainstream media headlines continued faith in central planning. Sounding very "Zero Hedge", Ficenec warns that from China to Brazil, the central banks have lost control and at the same time the global economy is grinding to a halt. It is only a matter of time before stock markets collapse under the weight of their lofty expectations and record valuations.