Following this morning's busted issuance, it seems appropriate to take a deeper dive into the first-loss insurance that EFSF issuance may provide. There are still a lot of details to be worked out, but the €250 - €275 billion EFSF first loss insurance facility is starting to take shape. The amount of exposure that the EFSF can take in any form and retain the AAA rating is capped at €452 billion Euro – the amount of guarantees provided by the AAA entities. It looks more and more like the EFSF guarantees will be used in 3 different ways. A portion will be used to raise money to meet commitments already made to Greece, Ireland, and Portugal. Another portion will be allocated to provide additional capital to banks. Finally, a portion will be used to back first-loss insurance and we note that the EFSF First-Loss Insurance Program is like Nothing We Have Ever Seen Before. Why we have wound up at the stage that issuing binary options on sovereign debt is a good solution, I don’t know, but since we are there, it might as well be done as well as possible.
- Market talk that China may contribute towards the EFSF. Meanwhile, Japanese PM Noda said Japan will consider continued buying of EFSF bonds
- According to an EFSF spokesman, the EFSF is putting off the sale of its 10-year securities
- Weakness in the USD-Index boosted EUR/USD, GBP/USD and commodity-linked currencies
- According to the German foreign minister, the Greek rescue plan cannot be renegotiated
- Markets look ahead to the FOMC rate decision followed by Fed’s Bernanke press-conference
After my initial despair at the announcement of the referendum -- a decision I consider frivolous, suspicious and dangerous -- I was overcome by a strange calm. I understood, as never before, that the Greeks do not feel alive if not flirting with death. I don't know if, in his simplistic political obsessions, George Papandreou felt this and therefore pushed the country into a game of Russian roulette. In any case, he put bullets in the revolver and handed it to the people.
Yu Yongding: "Europe’s courtship of Beijing is moving to a more intense level. Klaus Regling, the chief of the eurozone bail-out fund, is in Beijing discussing possible support. Just a few days ago French President Nicolas Sarkozy conferred with Hu Jintao, his Chinese counterpart, to win Beijing’s support. They should not hold out their hopes too high. The two will have had a courteous hearing: China is willing and able to help. Since the beginning of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, Beijing has repeatedly expressed its wish to offer “a helping hand” to Europe. Eurozone countries, however, have to understand that they will have to save themselves. Expectations of a “red knight” riding to the rescue are sorely misplaced."
Independent Strategy On "Greece The Ungovernable" - "Go short the euro and PIIGS debt — and hold on to your seats!"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/01/2011 08:59 -0500
The decision by Greek PM Papandreou to call for a referendum on the latest Greek bailout deal shows that Greece is becoming ungovernable. The PASOK leader made this decision because riots in the streets, increasing refusal by civil servants to implement the austerity measures and the likely loss of his majority in parliament made the survival of the government unlikely within weeks or months. So Papandreou has gone for broke. He hopes that by winning a vote on the bailout plan he can shut up the opposition both in parliament and on the streets. But this high-risk strategy threatens to bring the whole house of Euro cards down.
- China PMI in surprise fall, lowest since 2009 (Reuters)
- Fury in Germany after Greek referendum call (Reuters)
- Europe Debt Crisis Threatens Asian Growth (Bloomberg)
- Gang Forms Inside US Debt Panel in Quest for Deal (Reuters)
- Italy's crisis deepens on eurozone slump, bail-out doubts (Telegraph)
- Greek vote would be on euro membership: Finnish minister (Reuters)
- President Hu confident in Europe (China Daily)
- New invoice system to further regulate rare earths industry (China Daily)
- Ministers fear steep rise in job losses(FT)
- Concerns surrounding the Greek debt situation resurfaced after the Greek PM called for a referendum on the new EU aid package, and news that the Greek government is planning a vote of confidence this Friday
- Lacklustre manufacturing PMI data from China dented appetite for risk
- GBP came under pressure following weaker than expected manufacturing PMI data from the UK, however did recover some strength after higher than expected UK’s third quarter advanced GDP reading
- The RBA cut its benchmark interest rate overnight by 25 basis points as expected
Euroskeptic think thank Open Europe once again appears on the scene with one of the first more extended reactions to what the possibility of a Greek referendum, which according to the Guardian will take place in January, means for Greece, the Eurozone, and the latest bailout (which according to Williem Buiter, who reiterates to the FT something we said 2 months ago, needs to be €3 trillion). One thing we would like to point out is that if indeed the popular vote on the future of Europe will take place in January, then kiss the year end rally goodbye as the uncertainty around the market will be insurmountable by anything the bureaucrats can throw at the concern that Europe is on fast-track to political suicide. From the source: "This could be big turning point in this crisis. The EU should move quickly to come up with plans to mitigate the fallout of a no vote, specifically how to handle a rudderless and broke Greece, which would probably include plans for allowing it to exit the euro. A yes vote would be far from a solution, at best it would buy some time for the Greek government and the EU to enforce some necessary reforms thanks to a fresh mandate. As with any referendum it may come down to the phrasing of the question. Let’s hope the Greek government and the EU do a better job of communicating the issues at hand than they have done so far in this crisis."
While we have shown this series of images by Bulgarian modern artist Yanko Tsvetkov previously, now that the question of European "unity" is more debatable than ever, and with a Greek referendum in effect guaranteeing the collapse of the Eurozone at least in its current framework, it makes sense to refresh on these pictures which straddle the thin line between reality and satire, which these days is one and the same. But no matter what, the important part is that everyone is hedged. Just ask MF Global... and MS.
It appears the Greek leader has had it, and is officially throwing in the towel, leaving his citizens to tell Europe to shove their perpetual bank rescue plan, via Bloomberg:
- PAPANDREOU SAYS NEW GREEK PLAN MUST BE PUT TO REFERENDUM
- PAPANDREOU SAYS GREEKS CALLED ON TO CHOOSE ON COUNTRY'S COURSE
- PAPANDREOU SAYS CALLS FOR VOTE OF CONFIDENCE ON POLICIES
- PAPANDREOU SAYS GREEK DECISION WILL BIND ALL POLITICAL PARTIES
- PAPANDREOU SAYS REJECT ELECTIONS AT THIS TIME
Naturally, with scenes like this one from last week, don't expect a glowing Greek endorsement of abdicating national sovereignty to the European superstate. In fact, expect the opposite. And with that, preparations for a Greek exit from the Euro and Eurozone begin in earnest.
Well, they are right: 50% and the gun next to your head does not go off, hence "voluntary" or push for fair treatment in bankruptcy, get exiled from the ponzi in perpetuity, and hope for a 0% recovery at best. Next steps: the upcoming 90% haircut, which make no mistake is coming once the 50% one is deemed insufficient, just like the 21% before it, will also be voluntary? Thank you ISDA for confirming whose interests you have truly at heart, and for forcing everyone to take a quick peek at the members on your "determinations committee."
And now for some good old fashioned Bob Janjuah, albeit with proper grammar (damn you Nomura proper English sylesheet... damn you to hell): "No change. Deeply bearish with respect to global growth, and on a secular basis I am very strongly risk-off – my 2012 target for the low in the S&P500 remains 800/900, with the risk of an "undershoot? to the 700s. See my last note for details/targets. I would highlight only my view that the global policy making community, based their "actions? over the last month, are doing a wonderful job in meeting my 2012 "target?. Namely that, in 2012, the current set of developed markets (DM) policymakers will be exposed as "emperors with no clothes on?, and their policy choices over the last few years will be seen as the central problem, rather than as some mystical bazooka solution which can somehow reconcile the chasm between a lack of growth and productivity on the one hand, and the enormous debt and debt servicing costs and unsustainable entitlement culture costs that we face in the DM world on the other." And for the shorter-term: "The implication therefore is that in 2011, the October equity lows MAY NOT be the lows for the year. So based on what I can see now, and with a S&P500 1310 “stop loss” as mentioned above, I am now looking for another major risk-off phase between now and year end, with a December target for the S&P500 back down in the 1100s for sure, and possibly even the low 1000s." In other words, Bob as we love him best: nearing his all time bearish zenith... Or nadir, depends on one's perspective.
Despite measures to tackle the Eurozone debt crisis from last week's EU leaders' summit, the implementation details remained unclear and there remained uncertainty about the Chinese contribution in solving the crisis, which dented the appetite for risk. Furthermore, the OECD and UBS cut their respective growth forecast for the Euroarea, which also weighed on the sentiment, and led European equities to trade lower, with underperformance seen in the Italian FTSE MIB and Spanish IBEX 35 indices. Weakness in equities provided support to Bunds, whereas the Eurozone 10-year government bond yield spreads widened across the board, with particular widening seen in the Italian/German spread on the back of debt and political concerns surrounding Italy. In the forex market, Japan intervened in the FX market overnight, which resulted in the weakening of JPY across the board. In other news, strength in the USD-Index weighed on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and commodity-linked currencies. Moving into the North American open, markets look ahead to economic data from the US in the form of Chicago PMI, and NAPM-Milwaukee, together with the Canadian GDP figures.
"Unless the FCBs step up to the plate much more than they have in the past couple of weeks, either the Treasury market will collapse, or the stock market rally will fizzle, or both. We’re not there yet." Lee Adler